Our three decades of experience providing independent macro research to investors underpins everything that we do at TS Lombard. We combine global macro themed and deep understanding of key countries to deliver a unique globally-consistent approach, as such our macro strategy recommendations at a regional or sector level always reflect the implications of 'big-picture' macro analysis of global themes. Unlike other researchers who specialise in a specific geography or sector, our outputs benefit from the full spectrum of knowledge from across our entire organisation, both our macroeconomic research hub in London and our local teams across the world. This allows us to understand how events or flows at the global level will impact on individual economies and investments.
We provide confident insights into shifting global macro trends, the timing of turning points and how they will unfold at regional and country level. Our analysis is based on a deeper understanding of the implications of political and economic events and the interconnectedness of the global economy.
Our Approach to Macro Research
Our research team scouts the global economy for emerging macro trends and then explores how they impact individual countries and global markets. As a company, it’s in our nature to question things and look for those places where risk and opportunity may be understated or overstated. We do this by considering the fundamental building blocks of economic forecasting – sectoral balances, financial flows, and money and credit growth. Vitally, we look at these economic drivers through the frame of our global economic, policy, and political knowledge, which is outside the range of vision of many forecasters. We also build proprietary models and processes to monitor global leading indicators, macroeconomic indicators and financial flows.
This allows us to deliver actionable, courageous views that takes the full macro picture into consideration.
Our Track Record
We take great pride in our 30 year track record of macro research and global macro strategy, and we believe that our past calls speak for themselves.
Recent Research Examples
The arrival of effective vaccines against Covid-19 is good enough reason to expect the UK economy will bounce back this year. Yet while hopes for a strong recovery in 2021 have justifiably risen, the extension of lockdown restrictions means that the anticipated reacceleration in real activity will (at the least) be delayed.READ ME
US currency weakness always sparks talk about the possibility of a “dollar crisis”, or worse the total demise of the Dollar Standard. Yet, while there are inherent vulnerabilities in the modern financial system, US currency declines actually reduce these pressures, making the whole system more sustainable. This is good news for the world economy because it will reinforce the emerging “reflation trade”.READ ME
One year on from the start of Covid-19 and just shy of the anniversary of the Wuhan lockdown, China’s economy is growing strongly, albeit unevenly. Official full-year 2020 growth has come in at 2.3% yoy. Our TSL proprietary calculation of real GDP was lower – at 1.6% yoy, which is still comfortably above other major economies. We upgrade our 2021 growth outlook to 8.5% yoy(from 7.7% yoy) on strong supply-side momentum and external demand.READ ME
There are two types of economist: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know. That’s why our final blog of the year usually gives “anti-forecasts” – outlandish things that definitely won’t happen. But then, 2020 happened, dealing a mortal blow to satire and proving that even “non-forecasts” are a waste of time: anything can happen.READ ME
Our Global Macro team
Charles DumasShow Profile
Larry BrainardShow Profile
Steven BlitzShow Profile
Bo ZhuangShow Profile
Dario PerkinsShow Profile
Shweta SinghShow Profile
Konstantinos VenetisShow Profile
Shumita Sharma DeveshwarShow Profile
Davide OnegliaShow Profile
Madina KhrustalevaShow Profile
Rory GreenShow Profile
Wilson FerrareziShow Profile
Krzysztof HalladinShow Profile
Shumita Sharma Deveshwar
Politics and government policy are increasingly significant macro strategy drivers, and our world-wide team of geopolitical analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence macroeconomic investment performance - both regionally and globally.
Using the wealth of macroeconomic and geopolitical insights at our disposal, our team of macro strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased implications for global markets, including asset allocation, investment positioning and cross asset portfolio risk management.