Our three decades of experience providing independent macro research to investors underpins everything that we do at TS Lombard. We combine global macro themes and deep understanding of key countries to deliver a unique globally-consistent approach, as such our macro strategy recommendations at a regional or sector level always reflect the implications of 'big-picture' macro analysis of global themes. Unlike other researchers who specialise in a specific geography or sector, our outputs benefit from the full spectrum of knowledge from across our entire organisation, both our macroeconomic research hub in London and our local teams across the world. This allows us to understand how events or flows at the global level will impact on individual economies and investments.
We provide confident insights into shifting global macro trends, the timing of turning points and how they will unfold at regional and country level. Our analysis is based on a deeper understanding of the implications of political and economic events and the interconnectedness of the global economy.
Our Approach to Macro Research
Our research team scouts the global economy for emerging macro trends and explores how they impact individual countries and global markets. As a company, it’s in our nature to question things and look for those places where risk and opportunity may be understated or overstated. We do this by considering the fundamental building blocks of economic forecasting – sectoral balances, financial flows, and money and credit growth. Vitally, we look at these economic drivers through the frame of our global economic, policy, and political knowledge, which is outside the range of vision of many forecasters. We also build proprietary models and processes to monitor global leading indicators, macroeconomic indicators and financial flows. This allows us to deliver actionable, courageous views that takes the full macro picture into consideration.
Our macroeconomic research expertise, underpins all of our research services: Global Macro, China and Global Emerging Markets and Global Strategy.
Our Track Record
We take great pride in our 30 year track record of macro research and global macro strategy, and we believe that our past calls speak for themselves.
Macro Research Examples
Existing macro divergences gather momentum. In other words, the “K-shaped” post covid recovery trends that emerged during the Q3 recovery are being exacerbated rather than reversed. November flash PMI business surveys for Germany and France – the first set of standard macroeconomic indicators to reflect tighter restrictions since end-October – corroborate the message from mobility indices.READ ME
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the newly agreed Indo-Pacific FTA– will firmly anchor trade and standard-setting power in East Asia. The 15 member countries account for 42% of global manufacturing value added and 30% of GDP. Though less ambitious than other recently concluded FTAs, RCEP is a significant improvement on current rules governing regional trade and investment.READ ME
Global Macro Trends: A virulent second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is underway. We do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate relative declines in domestic demand in what we think is a ‘credible’ worst case scenario. We compare the extent of damage from the second wave in 2020 Q4 - 2021 Q1 to the loss in economic output in 2020 H1. Europe is hurt the most with GDP falling by 30%-50% of the decline in 2020 H1 while the US could stagnate.READ ME
Global Macro Trends: Covid economic scarring is not inevitable, but it is becoming likelier with a second wave of the virus and “fiscal fatigue” setting in. Central banks are determined to ensure scarring does not materialise, but fiscal decisions matter more than interest rates and monetary policy. The risk is that politicians, worrying too much about “the long term”, are embracing a deafest attitude that will ultimately be self-fulfilling. Economic scarring is highly likely without an adequate fiscal offset.READ ME
Politics and government policy are increasingly significant macro strategy drivers, and our world-wide team of geopolitical analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence macroeconomic investment performance – both regionally and globally.
Using the wealth of macroeconomic and geopolitical insight at our disposal, our team of macro strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased implications for global markets, including asset allocation, investment positioning and cross asset portfolio risk management.