US election forecasts. We have produced a series of forecasts of the economic and market effects of the US Presidential 2020 election. Markets want a quick and certain result whichever way it lands. A Biden win would be very bad for oil prices. Whoever wins it is negative for S&P energy equities and agricultural assets. Trade war and tech war with China will continue under either Biden or Trump. Geopolitical risk premiums will rise. To access these research notes register for trial access.
30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. More recently we called the March 2020 sell-off in the S&P 500 and, just as importantly, we forecast the coming longer-term economic damage.