TS Lombard

TS Lombard is a globally renowned independent research provider with a formidable 29 year track record in providing actionable investment ideas driven by unique understanding of economics, politics and markets. Our economic and political analysis drives our asset allocation recommendations which are both strategic and tactical. We also provide thematic equity calls through TS Lombard Research Partners. TS Lombard was formed through the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources in August 2016. The merger has brought together two of the leading, and longest established, IRPs to create a unique offering combining best-in-breed macroeconomic forecasting and political and policy analysis. The group has a team of 25 analysts and strategists across offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sao Paulo and New Delhi.

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ECONOMICS

Through our analysis of the forces that drive economics at the global, regional and country level, we have a joined-up picture of the world economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking and forecasting with high conviction.

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POLITICS

With political drivers and government policy playing an increasingly significant role in determining economic and market outcomes, our world-wide team of political analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence investment performance – both regionally and globally.

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MARKETS

Using the wealth of macro economic, policy, and global political insight at our disposal, our team of strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased advice on asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management.

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Sample Research

04 Apr 2019 - Bo Zhuang

China Watch: Profit crash

Markets

Infrastructure investment will lead government stimulus efforts
But a run of negative economic figures is likely before such fiscal stimulus kicks in
After a strong performance in Q1/19, equities appear fully valued

Economics

PPI decline will weigh on profits and investment
2019 will be another record year for corporate defaults
Nominal GDP growth below 7% will trigger a strong policy response

Politics

Structural reforms will be resisted
Communist Party stresses political security
Anti-corruption campaign takes on new dimension

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield

Daily Note: Where we stand - our highest conviction views

Global macro data to disappoint
Deflationary pressures rebuilding
Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response
EM equities due further consolidation/correction

14 Mar 2019 - Dario Perkins

Macro Picture: Policy supercycles

With monetary policy running out of ideas about how to revive nominal GDP, the debate is moving decisively towards fiscal activism. This retraces a long ‘supercycle’ in macro policy that started in the 1920s. Fiscal ‘solutions’ seem inevitable after the next recession. The only question is how far they will dilute central-bank independence.

27 Feb 2019 - Oliver Brennan

Macro Strategy: Yield curve: The signal and the noise

3m-10y inversion always precedes a recession
S&P sectoral performance tends to switch to safety upon inversion: we go long a safe basket vs short a growth basket
We also take profit on our long October fed funds future as market now discounts high chance of a cut this year

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