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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. To highlight the most important themes we are publishing a series of research notes under the title of “Global Fractures”. You can read some sample reports from the series below.

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (02/21/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (02/21/2020)

Playhere:
01:48
Jonathan Fenby Still Sees a V-Shaped Recovery for China

Jonathan Fenby Still Sees a V-Shaped Recovery for China

Playhere:
01:08
China’s stimulus measures may cause ‘long-term damage,’ says economist

China’s stimulus measures may cause ‘long-term damage,’ says economist

Playhere:
02:26
What are S. Korea's measures against novel coronavirus?

What are S. Korea's measures against novel coronavirus?

Playhere:
26:02
Did Germany Contract Twice in 2019?

Did Germany Contract Twice in 2019?

Playhere:
02:22
RBI May Cut Rates Later This Year, TS Lombard Says

RBI May Cut Rates Later This Year, TS Lombard Says

Playhere:
05:37
S. Korea pursues New Northern Policy to drive its economy

S. Korea pursues New Northern Policy to drive its economy

Playhere:
25:17
Expecting zero rate cuts from the Fed this year, economist says

Expecting zero rate cuts from the Fed this year, economist says

Playhere:
02:27

Research

13 Jan 2020 - Charles Dumas

Daily Note: Keynsian deficits - a tale of 2 isles

  • Japan and the UK are the two contrasting test cases of fiscal easing
  • Japan’s deficits are forced, and have done little to prevent debt risks
  • Benefits from Trump’s US corporate tax cuts were offset by trade war
  • UK is swinging sharply towards fiscal stimulus – 1st mover advantage?

 

06 Jan 2020 - Martin Shenfield

Where we stand: 2020 a year of two halves

  • Short vol in H1 CY 2020, long vol in H2 as risks could mount later in the year
  • Supportive liquidity & credit conditions suggest "buy the dips" - Middle East instability may provide the oppurtunity
  • US below target inflation keeps "fed put" in play
  • Modest global recovery in H1 with L-shaped China stability but US growth to accelerate in H2
  • Within EMs Russia & Brazil to surprise positively?
  • US-China trade war unresolved-longer term emerging Global Fractures to cap valuations
11 Dec 2019 - Shweta Singh

Daily Note: Dollar Hegemony and New Risks

  • Global trade and finance more closely linked than meets the eye
  • Dollar hegemony means the Fed is the global lender of first resort
  • Risk triggers increasingly lie outside the banking sector
  • This Daily Note is the seventh of eight in our “Global Fractures” series
04 Dec 2019 - Charles Dumas / Larry Brainard / Christopher Granville

The View: 2020 recovery-but no boom and plenty of risk

  • Worldwide 2019 downswing outside US & China caused by trade war Inventory liquidation in China & other EMs in 2019 1st half
  • Modest world trade revival in 2019 Q3 to continue into 2020
  • Chinese trade will fall in 2020, especially imports
  • US growth sub-2% in 2019 Q4 and 2020 Q1, then recovering
  • US 10-year yield was pulled down by EA/Japan weakness, now up a bit
  • Tepid European recovery - best hope is continued German wage gains
  • Brexit grind to continue, probably less visibly, in 2020
  • Fiscal deficits up and other factors imply higher dollar rates in long-run
  • Political risk in US 2020 elections is revival of Trump attack on EU
  • On the timing of bear market risk, the 2020 US election looks pivotal
  • A bear market is the most likely cause of a future US recession
     
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Press

Market pressure heats up on the Fed with at least three cuts now priced in for 2020

27 Feb 2020 - CNBC

“The Fed may have to make more active use of its liquidity backstops to arrest a worsening of global financing conditions,” economists at TS Lombard wrote. “Fiscal stimulus would also help. In general, time is of the essence — each risk can persist for a little before causing a tipping point.”

EMERGING MARKETS-Virus fears keep Latam FX pressured, Argentine peso hits 6-month low

26 Feb 2020 - Reuters

"The mood in the market is cautious as market participants closely monitor the spread of the outbreak," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard in Sao Paulo.

European stocks sink further as pandemic fears hit buying

25 Feb 2020 - Reuters

“Treasury yields were already below fair value... They’re going down because they provide some insurance from large equity market moves. But when yields fall, typically the prospects of profitability for banks also come down, said Andrea Cicione,” head of strategy at TS Lombard.

Cash-strapped Chinese companies say they could collapse within months as coronavirus spreads

24 Feb 2020 - Markets Insider

"China will respond to the coronavirus with extra monetary and fiscal stimulus," Andrea Cicione, the head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, said in a research note this month. "This will matter little in the end unless earnings start growing again."

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Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor
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