Independent Economic and Investment Strategy Research
Economic models, in depth country knowledge and historical perspective are core to our process. Our understanding of the global economy and how
countries interact from a financial flows and trade balance perspective allows us to project country, region and/or global economic performance, giving
clients a fundamental insight for making asset allocation decisions. Our toolbox of flow of funds and liquidity analysis gives us a unique insight, providing
integrated global analysis, with a unified view of the real economy and financial markets. Deep expertise in political analysis allows us to complete our
view of the political economy. Request a trial to see our approach in action.
30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. One of our key themes is Decarbonomics - The economics and policy of reducing reliance on greenhouse gas (carbon) emissions in energy production, manufacturing, transportation and other sectors of the economy and the drive for green energy and net-zero emissions.
Our Independent Research Services
Our Global Macro Research Service combines our broad global macro thematic analysis—horizon scanning to identify and explore emerging themes and their impact on countries and markets—with our deep economic and political insights into the major world economies and markets: the U.S., Europe and Asia (focus on China). Political insights are key to our research process, and our global political drivers underpin our Global Macro Research Service.
China & Global EM
Our China and Global Emerging Markets Research Service provides the granular, local detail that EM-focused investors need, with particular emphasis on China. Our in-country specialists provide regular detailed, on-the-ground analysis of the most important emerging markets as well as feeding back into our broad EM research process to produce EM thematic, market strategy and asset and country allocation recommendations.
Our Global Strategy Research Service uses a markets lens to explore how our teams’ political and economic insights will impact markets globally. Our strategy research provides our clients with implications for asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management. Given their importance to our strategy research, this service also includes our proprietary economic indicators and flow of funds analysis.
Our Macro Research
2023 Outlook: Recession Deep Fake
The threat to asset markets in 2023 is not Fed overtightening but that the world’s central bank has thrown in the towel too soonREAD ME
New Era of Macro Volatility
Inflation will become more volatile and recessions more frequent. Risk premia in financial markets should rise, especially in bonds, which have been slow to adjust. But it is not all bad news – we could end up with shorter, less pronounced credit cycles and fewer systemic financial disasters.READ ME
US: 2023 OutlookMinor recession, transient relief on inflation, and the Fed will cut aggressively. 2012-19 asset cycle was the anomaly, product of the GFC, a "normal" credit/inflation cycles readies to return READ ME
When is $80T debt not a problem?
Mismatched-funding chains created by 2010s policy distortions are the greatest threat to global financial stability, both pre- and post- Fed pivot. Chains starting with Asian holders of dollar reserves, running through Japanese financials in OTC FX derivatives, into the Caymans and back to China make us highly skeptical of the long-term value of the RMBREAD ME
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