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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. The coronavirus COVID-19 is causing immense concern for investors and policy makers (see our updated policy response table). It has brought many of the financial and systemic risks we have been highlighting into sharp focus. To access all our research relating to the virus and what it means for growth and asset prices please register for trial access here.   

Stocks end near session highs after Friday's big selloff

Stocks end near session highs after Friday's big selloff

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07:14
COVID19 Pandemic in the world

COVID19 Pandemic in the world

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27:14
S. KOREAN GOV'T BRIEFING ON COVID-19

S. KOREAN GOV'T BRIEFING ON COVID-19

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Recession fears not overblown: Economist

Recession fears not overblown: Economist

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03:09
Markets plunge on coronavirus fears, possibility of recession grows

Markets plunge on coronavirus fears, possibility of recession grows

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06:09
CONTAINING COVID-19-Luxury goods sales drop significantly in the U.S.

CONTAINING COVID-19-Luxury goods sales drop significantly in the U.S.

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02:24
'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (02/21/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (02/21/2020)

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01:48
Jonathan Fenby Still Sees a V-Shaped Recovery for China

Jonathan Fenby Still Sees a V-Shaped Recovery for China

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Research

27 Mar 2020 - Andrea Cicione

Where are we in the COVID-19 crisis?

An extremely useful piece of analysis designed to answer four crucial questions for investors:

  1. Where are we in the Covid-19 crisis?
  2. How bad will it get?
  3. What signposts should investors look for to spot the bottom?
  4. What will the recovery look like?
26 Mar 2020 - Oliver Brennan

Covid-19 Crisis Roadmap

This framework will shape our thinking about the evolution of the global economy over the next several months as we look for signposts and signals in the markets, economic growth and the progression of the virus.

 

18 Mar 2020 - Constantine Fraser

Government policy responses to Covid-19

The world’s governments are introducing unprecedented packages of support to minimise the permanent economic damage caused by the coronavirus shutdowns. We track the main policy measures implemented in the world’s largest economies.

16 Mar 2020 - Steven Blitz

Fed unleashes capital - theirs and the banks'

Fed made their last rate cut with down cycle just beginning, their plan of action can now centre on making sure dollars flow where needed.

  • Moving their capital to the markets, bank capital into loans
  • Their action and the timing imply concern a “V” is not realistic
  • Our GDP forecast (QoQ SAAR) Q1: 1.2%; Q2: -8.0%; Q3: -1.0%; Q4: 3.0%
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Press

Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time

01 Apr 2020 - The New York Times

“The psychology won’t just bounce back,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, an investment research firm in London.

Economists Are Losing Hope in a ‘V-Shaped’ Post-Virus Recovery

31 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

“In any recovery, firms may need to sell shares or slash capex to reduce debt or repay government assistance,” said Charles Dumas of TS Lombard.

 

Here’s What Investors Are Watching to Assess the Next Phase of Covid-19

31 Mar 2020 - Barrons

As some countries like South Korea and Singapore have had success with their efforts, TS Lombard analyst Rory Green says strict social-distancing standards there are slipping, forcing governments to step in to remind people it is not over yet.

The Coronavirus Recession Deepens: ‘This Is Not A One-Quarter Event’

28 Mar 2020 - Forbes

“This is not a one-quarter event,” wrote TS Lombard economists Steven Blitz and Oliver Brennan in a research note.

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Professional investors can download our equity market forecast from Oliver Brennan and receive our newsletter here

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