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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. The coronavirus COVID-19 is causing immense concern for investors and policy makers (see our updated policy response table). It has brought many of the financial and systemic risks we have been highlighting into sharp focus. To access all our research relating to the virus and what it means for growth and asset prices please register for trial access here.   

The key numbers will be the labor numbers: Economist

The key numbers will be the labor numbers: Economist

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (05/22/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (05/22/2020)

China aims to spur demand and boost liquidity given virus impact: TS Lombard

China aims to spur demand and boost liquidity given virus impact: TS Lombard

Economic stimulus measures won’t cause recovery markets are anticipating, economist says

Economic stimulus measures won’t cause recovery markets are anticipating, economist says

As Europe Starts to Ease Restrictions, When Will Its Economy Recover?

As Europe Starts to Ease Restrictions, When Will Its Economy Recover?

China’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2020 amid virus crisis: TS Lombard

China’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2020 amid virus crisis: TS Lombard

Quick and smooth restart of economy is not realistic, strategist says

Quick and smooth restart of economy is not realistic, strategist says

PBOC will not set the yuan much weaker: China Economist

PBOC will not set the yuan much weaker: China Economist

22 May 2020 - Oliver Brennan

Crisis Roadmap: Miracle Cures

As lockdowns begin to be eased around the world and infection rates slow, we mark-to-market our view against the roadmap we originally laid out back in March. Most developments fit in with our framework – revisions ratios and economic surprises are rising, for example. But central bank support has limited the risk of a credit blowout – and of course the equity market continues to defy gravity.

 

07 May 2020 - Constantine Fraser

Government policy responses to Covid-19

The world’s governments are introducing unprecedented packages of support to minimise the permanent economic damage caused by the coronavirus shutdowns. We track the main policy measures implemented in the world’s largest economies.

04 May 2020 - Andrea Cicione

Real bear market starts now

  • The Fed cannot stop the recession from hitting hard
  • Bank bad loan provisions at record highs tell us more than S&P valuations
  • Microsoft and the FANGs cannot support the entire index
01 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?

Risk sentiment has recovered because policymakers have ‘underwritten’ global markets. Yet, the global outlook is as dark as it was a few weeks ago, with massive uncertainty about the timing and strength of the economic recovery. Since recessionary forces will persist beyond the official lockdown period, asset prices surely face another leg down.

Oil’s Fragile Peace Is Threatened by Iraq’s Desperate Reality

05 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

“The real economy is so sick that people need government support,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard, a London-based research firm.

This Time, Europe Hasn't Thrown Away Its Shot

05 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

This chart from Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, uses ADP data and shows that unemployment for companies with more than 1,000 employees isn’t as bad as in the last recession; but for companies with fewer than 500 employees, it is already much worse.

India Tries Reopening During Peak Coronavirus

05 Jun 2020 - Forbes

“Challenges faced by the economy prior to the pandemic-induced crisis – from rising fiscal pressures to financial sector stress – are now being amplified,” says Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, senior director for India research at TS Lombard.

The EU’s massive pandemic stimulus risks fueling discontent and euroskepticism

05 Jun 2020 - CNBC

Constantine Fraser, Europe analyst at research firm TS Lombard,  also told CNBC that “opposition politicians have already started to attack the plan, as too small in size, too slow in its prospective disbursements, or as coming with too much conditionality attached.”

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
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I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

Professional investors can download our equity market forecast and receive our newsletter here

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