Independent Economic and Investment Strategy Research
A coherent global view from diverse thought leaders. We take an eclectic approach to arrive at a coherent global view. Our strong, independent thinkers scan the horizon in different ways to identify and explore possible inflection points and emergent themes. Deep country knowledge and historical perspective are core to our process. Our thought leaders, global economists and country specialists come together to choose the right tools with which to explore the implications for individual countries and financial markets. The key to our approach is that we are led by the theme, not the tool. Request a trial to see our approach in action.
30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. One of our key themes is Decarbonomics - The economics and policy of reducing reliance on greenhouse gas (carbon) emissions in energy production, manufacturing, transportation and other sectors of the economy and the drive for green energy and net-zero emissions.
Our Independent Research Services
Our Global Macro Research Service combines our broad global macro thematic analysis—horizon scanning to identify and explore emerging themes and their impact on countries and markets—with our deep economic and political insights into the major world economies and markets: the U.S., Europe and Asia (focus on China). Political insights are key to our research process, and our global political drivers underpin our Global Macro Research Service.
China & Global EM
Our China and Global Emerging Markets Research Service provides the granular, local detail that EM-focussed investors need, with particular emphasis on China. Our in-country specialists provide regular detailed, on-the-ground analysis of the most important emerging markets as well as feeding back into our broad EM research process to produce EM thematic, market strategy and asset and country allocation recommendations.
Our Global Strategy Research Service uses a markets lens to explore how our teams’ political and economic insights will impact markets globally. Our strategy research provides our clients with implications for asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management. Given their importance to our strategy research, this service also includes our proprietary economic indicators and flow of funds analysis.
Our Macro Research
China growth figures are notoriously susceptible to manipulation. After having become more reliable in the past couple of years, 2022 could mark a return to the bad old days. With micro data already diverging from macro, an ambitious official growth target and even the National Bureau of Statistics questioning Jan-Feb data, we revisit alternative signals of China activity.READ ME
Central banks must choose how to respond to inflation hitting 30-year highs. Germany was the only country to "opt out" of the 1970s Great Inflation. But it would be a mistake to use currency strength as a monetary shield.READ ME
Our 2022 EA forecast is not significantly different from recession. China is likely to be in recession (with Chinese characteristics). US H1 growth scare remains a threat, but almost more worrying would be if the US were to remain strongREAD ME
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