Market carnage set as pincer of growth scare and Fed hawkishness crushes assets

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Independent Economic and Investment Strategy Research

A coherent global view from diverse thought leaders. We take an eclectic approach to arrive at a coherent global view. Our strong, independent thinkers scan the horizon in different ways to identify and explore possible inflection points and emergent themes. One of our key themes is Decarbonomics - The economics and policy of reducing reliance on greenhouse gas (carbon) emissions in energy production, manufacturing, transportation and other sectors of the economy and the drive for green energy and net-zero emissions. Deep country knowledge and historical perspective are core to our process. Our thought leaders, global economists and country specialists come together to choose the right tools with which to explore the implications for individual countries and financial markets. The key to our approach is that we are led by the theme, not the tool. Request a trial to see our approach in action.

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30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began.

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TS Lombard has a 31 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Macro Research, Geopolitics Investment Research and Investment Strategy Research. Take a look at our new Research Hub.

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Our Global Macro Research Service combines our broad global macro thematic analysis—horizon scanning to identify and explore emerging themes and their impact on countries and markets—with our deep economic and political insights into the major world economies and markets: the U.S., Europe and Asia (focus on China). Political insights are key to our research  process, and our global political drivers underpin our Global Macro Research Service.

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Our China and Global Emerging Markets Research Service provides the granular, local detail that EM-focussed investors need, with particular emphasis on China. Our in-country specialists provide regular detailed, on-the-ground analysis of the most important emerging markets as well as feeding back into our broad EM research process to produce EM thematic, market strategy and asset and country allocation recommendations.

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Our Global Strategy Research Service uses a markets lens to explore how our teams’ political and economic insights will impact markets globally. Our strategy research provides our clients with implications for asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management. Given their importance to our strategy research, this service also includes our proprietary economic indicators and flow of funds analysis. 

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Our Macro Research

13 Apr 2022 - Steven Blitz

US CPI - Where to from here is what matters, not the "peak"

March CPI data give comfort that goods price inflation may have begun to reverse – but where inflation ends up is more critical than whether this is the peak. The demand impact from higher commodity prices, specifically energy, slows the economy in Q2, and inflation as well. READ ME
08 Apr 2022 - Rory Green

Fact-checking China - In 6 charts

China growth figures are notoriously susceptible to manipulation. After having become more reliable in the past couple of years, 2022 could mark a return to the bad old days. With micro data already diverging from macro, an ambitious official growth target and even the National Bureau of Statistics questioning Jan-Feb data, we revisit alternative signals of China activity.

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11 Apr 2022 - Dario Perkins

Can central banks "opt out" of this inflation episode?

Central banks must choose how to respond to inflation hitting 30-year highs. Germany was the only country to "opt out" of the 1970s Great Inflation. But it would be a mistake to use currency strength as a monetary shield.

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04 Apr 2022 - Freya Beamish

Eurasia recession and compressed US real yields

Our 2022 EA forecast is not significantly different from recession. China is likely to be in recession (with Chinese characteristics). US H1 growth scare remains a threat, but almost more worrying would be if the US were to remain strong 

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TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team to make good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thank you.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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