Client Login
Contact
Sign up to TS Lombard's investment insights
US election forecasts. We have produced a series of forecasts of the economic and market effects of the US Presidential 2020 election. Markets want a quick and certain result whichever way it lands. A Biden win would be very bad for oil prices. Whoever wins it is negative for S&P energy equities and agricultural assets. Trade war and tech war with China will continue under either Biden or Trump. Geopolitical risk premiums will rise. To access these research notes register for trial access.
30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. More recently we called the March 2020 sell-off in the S&P 500 and, just as importantly, we forecast the coming longer-term economic damage.
Which assets win from the Covid recession?Massive disparity has become the theme of the COVID-19 (“K”) recession, diluting the traditional link between asset prices and the real economy. Recessions usually add to inequality, but the pandemic is interacting with powerful secular forces to create an unprecedented divide. Central banks will adjust their mandates but this will be ineffective without unwavering fiscal support.
Central Banks are changingThe Fed’s new strategy is putting pressure on other central banks to respond – what will they do?
Brexit bust-up: All for showThe going for the UK will get tougher as the post-reopening bounce comes to an end. We think the worst-case scenario on Brexit will be avoided – but a deal will do little to make the UK’s winter more comfortable.
End of an era: The end of strong dollar policyAIT changes the dollar paradigm: the dollar smile is now more of a smirk with the right-tail much less bullish USD.
Although the U.S. money supply is approaching its fastest growth since World War II, “this money surge is not a precursor to inflation.” That’s what Shweta Singh, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard, a research company, says.
“Even though it’s totally meaningless, this is going to give Trump a little lift,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.
“We don’t know what’s happening in the rural areas as far as Covid goes,” says Shumita Deveshwar, a senior director at research firm TS Lombard.
“So far, everything has surprised on the upside—export growth, consumption growth. Where else can we get a positive surprise?” said Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard.
global asset managers (by AUM) use TS Lombard’s research andinsight
managed by TS Lombard clients
