Global Fractures

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TS Lombard has 30 years of success in forecasting globalpolitical, economic and market developments and in generating bold, actionableideas for our clients.

Euro Will Trade in a Range, Says TS Lombard’s Shweta Singh

Euro Will Trade in a Range, Says TS Lombard’s Shweta Singh

Shanghai, Macau won’t replace Hong Kong as a financial hub: Economist

Shanghai, Macau won’t replace Hong Kong as a financial hub: Economist

ECB 'will still be Draghi's ECB' under Lagarde leadership: Economist

ECB 'will still be Draghi's ECB' under Lagarde leadership: Economist

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (10/31/2019)

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (10/31/2019)

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Fed as the global lender of first resort

Fed as the global lender of first resort

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TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

Japanisation & Europe

Japanisation & Europe

China growth slowdown is just getting started

China growth slowdown is just getting started

04 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas

The View: Japanisation & Europe

  • Japan’s root problems: mismanagement of product strategy
  • The spread of ‘Japanisation’ to the US is therefore inconceivable
  • Europe has the symptoms: slow growth, deflation threat, negative rates
  • But in the EA, slower growth has resulted from the euro structure
  • Products are competitive and labour forces do not accept wage cuts
  • Divergence of German and Italian labour costs is especially acute
  • Over time, the chief reason has become falling Italian productivity
  • ECB interest rates are negative to protect uncompetitive Italy
  • Germany has become indefinitely undervalued in labour costs
  • Excessive budget austerity has made the whole EA export-dependent
  • Growth potential is slipping, as in Japan, but both may ‘muddle through’
  • Populism adds to EA vulnerability to accidents
01 Oct 2019 - Larry Brainard

EM Strategy Monthly: Beijing's acceptance of slower growth marks turning point in global cycle

  • Risk: We turn less negative but still think the long list of potential upsets ahead merits a continued negative call on risk.
  • Turkey: We raise our call on equities to positive, which we view as a short-term tactical move owing to the expected sharp fall in inflation in September.
  • Russia: Prospects for further declines in inflation and the key policy rate remain solid; we maintain our positive call on all Russian securities.
  • Brazil: We continue our positive rating on Brazil ahead of the final passage of pension reform and continued easing by Banco Central.
29 Sep 2019 - Steven Blitz

US Watch: Trump now needs the economy more

Economics: A slipping grasp on growth

  • Markets ignored the last rate cut, balance sheet up next
  • Industry slowing, discretionary spending too; home sales are up

Markets: small-cap premium conundrum

  • Slowing aggregate profit growth reflects weaker domestic earnings
  • Small-caps have fared worse as a result; fundamentals appear weak
  • Yet small-cap stocks still trade at premium

Politics: Impeachment means Trump needs China

  • Pelosi’s narrow needle to thread for Democrats to benefit
  • Constitutional principles are subordinate to the economy and polls
  • Trumps needs a trade deal for growth, China playing a different game
  • Global problems rise during impeachment; Ukraine pivots to Russia?
12 Sep 2019 - Dario Perkins

Macro Picture: Recession scare

With yields inverted and a slump in global manufacturing, investors are increasingly worried about the prospect of a US recession. We do not think recession is the most likely outcome over the next 12 months, but there is a risk that a period of sluggish growth and disappointing corporate earnings turns into something nastier. Here’s how...

The Stage Is Set For Oil Price Volatility On November 18th

11 Nov 2019 - OilPrice.com

“Such is the centrality of U.S. semiconductor firms in manufacturing chains that a ban by Washington could effectively cut off global semiconductor supplies,” Rory Green, Asia economist for TS Lombard told OilPrice.com earlier this week. “The result would be a modern day equivalent to the Japan oil embargo that was imposed by the U.S. [on August 1941, in response to Japanese actions in then-Indochina] and that was a key prompt for the attack on Pearl Harbour,” he said. “For hawks in the Chinese government, the U.S. actions against Huawei and its related companies would be very near to a declaration of war and if the U.S. does not grant another extension to the Huawei ban then the bad feeling this will generate in China will be enormous,” he added.

Germany Teeters on Recession, But It’s Not All Bad News

11 Nov 2019 - Bloomberg

“Spillovers are affecting domestic demand,” said Davide Oneglia, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “Once the train is set in motion, it’s difficult to stop.”

Hindu pilgrims celebrate in wake of India’s Ayodhya ruling

10 Nov 2019 - Financial Times

“The fundamental question is whether this ruling will embolden the Hindu right or if it will satiate them because they have achieved their goals,” said TS Lombard political analyst Amitabh Dubey. “This is a triumphant moment, but the story has not yet played out.”

China’s small lenders suffer bank runs as economy slows

08 Nov 2019 - Financial Times

Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lombard, a research firm, said YYB exemplified the difficulties faced by China’s small lenders that had expanded their footprint by issuing shadow banking products, which could include off-balance-sheet lending, peer-to-peer transactions and credit extended by asset managers.

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of thetectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
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Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be veryindependent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Theirarticles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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