Global Fractures

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TS Lombard has 30 years of success in forecasting globalpolitical, economic and market developments and in generating bold, actionableideas for our clients.

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (11/14/2019)

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (11/14/2019)

Euro Will Trade in a Range, Says TS Lombard’s Shweta Singh

Euro Will Trade in a Range, Says TS Lombard’s Shweta Singh

Shanghai, Macau won’t replace Hong Kong as a financial hub: Economist

Shanghai, Macau won’t replace Hong Kong as a financial hub: Economist

ECB 'will still be Draghi's ECB' under Lagarde leadership: Economist

ECB 'will still be Draghi's ECB' under Lagarde leadership: Economist

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (10/31/2019)

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (10/31/2019)

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Fed as the global lender of first resort

Fed as the global lender of first resort

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TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

Japanisation & Europe

Japanisation & Europe

04 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas

The View: Japanisation & Europe

  • Japan’s root problems: mismanagement of product strategy
  • The spread of ‘Japanisation’ to the US is therefore inconceivable
  • Europe has the symptoms: slow growth, deflation threat, negative rates
  • But in the EA, slower growth has resulted from the euro structure
  • Products are competitive and labour forces do not accept wage cuts
  • Divergence of German and Italian labour costs is especially acute
  • Over time, the chief reason has become falling Italian productivity
  • ECB interest rates are negative to protect uncompetitive Italy
  • Germany has become indefinitely undervalued in labour costs
  • Excessive budget austerity has made the whole EA export-dependent
  • Growth potential is slipping, as in Japan, but both may ‘muddle through’
  • Populism adds to EA vulnerability to accidents
01 Oct 2019 - Larry Brainard

EM Strategy Monthly: Beijing's acceptance of slower growth marks turning point in global cycle

  • Risk: We turn less negative but still think the long list of potential upsets ahead merits a continued negative call on risk.
  • Turkey: We raise our call on equities to positive, which we view as a short-term tactical move owing to the expected sharp fall in inflation in September.
  • Russia: Prospects for further declines in inflation and the key policy rate remain solid; we maintain our positive call on all Russian securities.
  • Brazil: We continue our positive rating on Brazil ahead of the final passage of pension reform and continued easing by Banco Central.
29 Sep 2019 - Steven Blitz

US Watch: Trump now needs the economy more

Economics: A slipping grasp on growth

  • Markets ignored the last rate cut, balance sheet up next
  • Industry slowing, discretionary spending too; home sales are up

Markets: small-cap premium conundrum

  • Slowing aggregate profit growth reflects weaker domestic earnings
  • Small-caps have fared worse as a result; fundamentals appear weak
  • Yet small-cap stocks still trade at premium

Politics: Impeachment means Trump needs China

  • Pelosi’s narrow needle to thread for Democrats to benefit
  • Constitutional principles are subordinate to the economy and polls
  • Trumps needs a trade deal for growth, China playing a different game
  • Global problems rise during impeachment; Ukraine pivots to Russia?
12 Sep 2019 - Dario Perkins

Macro Picture: Recession scare

With yields inverted and a slump in global manufacturing, investors are increasingly worried about the prospect of a US recession. We do not think recession is the most likely outcome over the next 12 months, but there is a risk that a period of sluggish growth and disappointing corporate earnings turns into something nastier. Here’s how...

Cross Border Data Flows a Key Sticking Point For Trade (Radio)

15 Nov 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Eleanor Olcott, Analyst:China Policy, TS Lombard, joined Bryan Curtis and Rishaad Salamat on Daybreak Asia. She discusses obstacles in the way of a trade deal being made between the U.S. and China. She says if we do get a deal, it could be some time before we see phase two being shaped up.

Bloomberg Daybreak: Nov. 15, 2019 - Hour 1 (Radio)

15 Nov 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg Daybreak with Karen Moskow and Nathan Hager. GUEST: Steven Blitz Chief US Economist TS Lombard

Investors Should Worry Less About the Trade War and More About China’s Economy

15 Nov 2019 - Barrons

Trade is just one challenge longer term, with the bigger focus on the battle for technology leadership between the two economic powerhouses. That fight, TS Lombard strategists wrote, will create a continuing source of volatility and possibly cap equity valuations. A possible marker in this conflict could come later this month from a much-anticipated report from the Bureau of Industry and Security in the U.S. on which technologies could be subject to export controls—and how tightly written those restrictions will be.

Upbeat emerging market forecasts called into question

14 Nov 2019 - Financial Times

“Emerging market economies face extraordinary barriers to growth next year,” said Larry Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard, a consultancy.

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