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US election forecasts. We have produced a series of forecasts of the economic and market effects of the US Presidential 2020 election. Markets want a quick and certain result whichever way it lands. A Biden win would be very bad for oil prices. Whoever wins it is negative for S&P energy equities and agricultural assets. Trade war and tech war with China will continue under either Biden or Trump. Geopolitical risk premiums will rise. To access these research notes register for trial access.

30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. More recently we called the March 2020 sell-off in the S&P 500 and, just as importantly, we forecast the coming longer-term economic damage.

Why consumer confidence in the U.S. may translate into a ‘K-shaped recovery’

Why consumer confidence in the U.S. may translate into a ‘K-shaped recovery’

'China: The bubble that never pops': A discussion with the author, Tom Orlik, and with Jonathan Fenby and Jinny Yan

'China: The bubble that never pops': A discussion with the author, Tom Orlik, and with Jonathan Fenby and Jinny Yan

China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (08/07/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (08/07/2020)

China’s stock market rally is a ‘tricky wildcard’ for its economic recovery: TS Lombard

China’s stock market rally is a ‘tricky wildcard’ for its economic recovery: TS Lombard

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (07/09/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (07/09/2020)

What June’s job report may imply about the U.S. economic recovery

What June’s job report may imply about the U.S. economic recovery

23 Oct 2020 - Marcus Chenevix

Chaotic election but clear market reactions to come

Amid a once-in-a-century pandemic, with new Covid cases surging to a third US peak, the Biden campaign has entered the final stretch of the presidential election with tailwinds at its back and a war chest flush with cash. With less than two weeks to go, polls point to a Biden win, but the ghosts of 2016 polling errors haunt those predicting this year’s outcome – handicapping what looks on paper like a high chance of a Biden victory.

08 Oct 2020 - Dario Perkins

Which assets win from the Covid recession?

Massive disparity has become the theme of the COVID-19 (“K”) recession, diluting the traditional link between asset prices and the real economy. Recessions usually add to inequality, but the pandemic is interacting with powerful secular forces to create an unprecedented divide. Central banks will adjust their mandates but this will be ineffective without unwavering fiscal support.

30 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

Central Banks are changing

The Fed’s new strategy is putting pressure on other central banks to respond – what will they do?

  • Central banks under pressure to respond to the Fed’s new strategy
  • They can adjust inflation targets, but they can’t match jobs obsession
  • 2020s “policy divergence” won’t be repeated – weaker USD over cycle
09 Sep 2020 - Christopher Granville

Brexit bust-up: All for show

  • Sound & fury brinkmanship gives Boris Johnson political cover for a likely deal...
  • ... and political insurance against a little-noticed no-deal ‘vassalage’ trap
  • But a deal will still be an uncomfortable step down for UK business

The going for the UK will get tougher as the post-reopening bounce comes to an end. We think the worst-case scenario on Brexit will be avoided – but a deal will do little to make the UK’s winter more comfortable.

If Google Is Breaking the Antitrust Laws, What’s the Right Remedy?

20 Oct 2020 - Bloomberg

Although the U.S. money supply is approaching its fastest growth since World War II, “this money surge is not a precursor to inflation.” That’s what Shweta Singh, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard, a research company, says.

 

The GDP report next week will likely show record-breaking economic growth, but it may not help Trump

20 Oct 2020 - CNBC

“Even though it’s totally meaningless, this is going to give Trump a little lift,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

Investors bet on the resilience of India’s rural economy

19 Oct 2020 - Financial Times

“We don’t know what’s happening in the rural areas as far as Covid goes,” says Shumita Deveshwar, a senior director at research firm TS Lombard.

China Acceleration May Not Rescue World From Coronavirus Slowdown

19 Oct 2020 - Wall Street Journal

“So far, everything has surprised on the upside—export growth, consumption growth. Where else can we get a positive surprise?” said Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard.

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team to make good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thank you.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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