Independent Economic and Investment Strategy Research
A coherent global view from diverse thought leaders. We take an eclectic approach to arrive at a coherent global view. Our strong, independent thinkers scan the horizon in different ways to identify and explore possible inflection points and emergent themes. Deep country knowledge and historical perspective are core to our process. Our thought leaders, global economists and country specialists come together to choose the right tools with which to explore the implications for individual countries and financial markets. The key to our approach is that we are led by the theme, not the tool. Request a trial to see our approach in action.
30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began.
Our Independent Research Services
Our Global Macro Research Service combines our broad global macro thematic analysis—horizon scanning to identify and explore emerging themes and their impact on countries and markets—with our deep economic and political insights into the major world economies and markets: the U.S., Europe and Asia (focus on China). Political insights are key to our research process, and our global political drivers underpin our Global Macro Research Service.
China & Global EM
Our China and Global Emerging Markets Research Service provides the granular, local detail that EM-focussed investors need, with particular emphasis on China. Our in-country specialists provide regular detailed, on-the-ground analysis of the most important emerging markets as well as feeding back into our broad EM research process to produce EM thematic, market strategy and asset and country allocation recommendations.
Our Global Strategy Research Service uses a markets lens to explore how our teams’ political and economic insights will impact markets globally. Our strategy research provides our clients with implications for asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management. Given their importance to our strategy research, this service also includes our proprietary economic indicators and flow of funds analysis.
Our Macro Research
A few weeks ago Euro Area (EA) governments started laying out plans for gradual reopening at differentiated paces: first, Italy and Spain, favoured by warmer weather and falling new cases, followed by France from mid-May, despite still elevated hospitalizations, and finally Germany, which is dealing with a third virulent wave.READ ME
It has been a little over a year since commodity prices bottomed out, marking the start of a powerful rally that is reminiscent of those in 1993-95, 2005-07 and 2009-10. With the global economic recovery set to gather pace and demand for real assets on the rise, the macro backdrop implies further upside.READ ME
President Biden has hit the road running with his proposed $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan to reshape the economy. In his speech in Pittsburgh on 31 March, Biden said it is a “once in a generation” investment in America, highlighting the opportunity to rebuild 20,000 miles of roads, repair 10 key bridges and upgrade the electrical grid and basic infrastructure networks.READ ME
If the coming expansion is to be different from the last one, consumers will boost their borrowing relative to income – and there is good reason to believe they will. If they do, real growth gets a lift and so too cyclical inflation, but an inflationary cycle such as a repeat of the1970s remains farfetched.READ ME
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