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Growth-Value Rotation. The latest attempt was predicated on expectations of a “blue wave” in the US election, which failed to materialize. But a vaccine may succeed where hopes of a large fiscal stimulus did not, namely, by delivering a sustained and faster-than-previously-thought recovery in growth, employment and inflation. All this points to higher yields. Growth-Value rotation would make the equity rally more sustainable. While the Growth-Value rotation should redefine leadership among sectors, it could at the same time help unlock some more upside for the whole market. We have long argued that Tech needed a bubble to continue performing as it has done in 2020. Since Value sectors are trading at significantly lower multiples than IT, they appear to have much more headroom for further gains. To access these research notes register for trial access.

30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. More recently we called the March 2020 Covid-19 sell-off in the S&P 500.

Why consumer confidence in the U.S. may translate into a ‘K-shaped recovery’

Why consumer confidence in the U.S. may translate into a ‘K-shaped recovery’

'China: The bubble that never pops': A discussion with the author, Tom Orlik, and with Jonathan Fenby and Jinny Yan

'China: The bubble that never pops': A discussion with the author, Tom Orlik, and with Jonathan Fenby and Jinny Yan

China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (08/07/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (08/07/2020)

China’s stock market rally is a ‘tricky wildcard’ for its economic recovery: TS Lombard

China’s stock market rally is a ‘tricky wildcard’ for its economic recovery: TS Lombard

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (07/09/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (07/09/2020)

What June’s job report may imply about the U.S. economic recovery

What June’s job report may imply about the U.S. economic recovery

10 Nov 2020 - Andrea Cicione

Covid vaccine - Growth-Value rotation is back on

Equities were already priced for a vaccine, but the certainty of an effective one should limit downside risks in the near term.

  • We upgrade our equity market view to neutral on Covid-19 vaccine data
  • EPS downside risk reduced, but rising yields should lead to lower p/e
  • Growth-to-Value rotation back on, making future gains more sustainable
08 Oct 2020 - Dario Perkins

Which assets win from the Covid recession?

Massive disparity has become the theme of the COVID-19 (“K”) recession, diluting the traditional link between asset prices and the real economy. Recessions usually add to inequality, but the pandemic is interacting with powerful secular forces to create an unprecedented divide. Central banks will adjust their mandates but this will be ineffective without unwavering fiscal support.

30 Sep 2020 - Dario Perkins

Central Banks are changing

The Fed’s new strategy is putting pressure on other central banks to respond – what will they do?

  • Central banks under pressure to respond to the Fed’s new strategy
  • They can adjust inflation targets, but they can’t match jobs obsession
  • 2020s “policy divergence” won’t be repeated – weaker USD over cycle
09 Sep 2020 - Christopher Granville

Brexit bust-up: All for show

  • Sound & fury brinkmanship gives Boris Johnson political cover for a likely deal...
  • ... and political insurance against a little-noticed no-deal ‘vassalage’ trap
  • But a deal will still be an uncomfortable step down for UK business

The going for the UK will get tougher as the post-reopening bounce comes to an end. We think the worst-case scenario on Brexit will be avoided – but a deal will do little to make the UK’s winter more comfortable.

If Google Is Breaking the Antitrust Laws, What’s the Right Remedy?

20 Oct 2020 - Bloomberg

Although the U.S. money supply is approaching its fastest growth since World War II, “this money surge is not a precursor to inflation.” That’s what Shweta Singh, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard, a research company, says.

 

The GDP report next week will likely show record-breaking economic growth, but it may not help Trump

20 Oct 2020 - CNBC

“Even though it’s totally meaningless, this is going to give Trump a little lift,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

Investors bet on the resilience of India’s rural economy

19 Oct 2020 - Financial Times

“We don’t know what’s happening in the rural areas as far as Covid goes,” says Shumita Deveshwar, a senior director at research firm TS Lombard.

China Acceleration May Not Rescue World From Coronavirus Slowdown

19 Oct 2020 - Wall Street Journal

“So far, everything has surprised on the upside—export growth, consumption growth. Where else can we get a positive surprise?” said Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard.

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team to make good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thank you.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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