Market carnage set as pincer of growth scare and Fed hawkishness crushes assets

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Independent Economic and Investment Strategy Research

A coherent global view from diverse thought leaders. We take an eclectic approach to arrive at a coherent global view. Our strong, independent thinkers scan the horizon in different ways to identify and explore possible inflection points and emergent themes. Deep country knowledge and historical perspective are core to our process. Our thought leaders, global economists and country specialists come together to choose the right tools with which to explore the implications for individual countries and financial markets. The key to our approach is that we are led by the theme, not the tool. Request a trial to see our approach in action.

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30 year track record. We have a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economic, political and market cycles. For example, building on our global macro and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began. One of our key themes is Decarbonomics - The economics and policy of reducing reliance on greenhouse gas (carbon) emissions in energy production, manufacturing, transportation and other sectors of the economy and the drive for green energy and net-zero emissions.

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TS Lombard: Combining Macro, Geopolitics and Investment Strategy

TS Lombard has a 31 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Macro Research, Geopolitics Investment Research and Investment Strategy Research. Take a look at our new Research Hub.

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TS Lombard: Combining Macro, Geopolitics and Investment Strategy

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Global Macro

Our Global Macro Research Service combines our broad global macro thematic analysis—horizon scanning to identify and explore emerging themes and their impact on countries and markets—with our deep economic and political insights into the major world economies and markets: the U.S., Europe and Asia (focus on China). Political insights are key to our research  process, and our global political drivers underpin our Global Macro Research Service.

China & Global EM

Our China and Global Emerging Markets Research Service provides the granular, local detail that EM-focussed investors need, with particular emphasis on China. Our in-country specialists provide regular detailed, on-the-ground analysis of the most important emerging markets as well as feeding back into our broad EM research process to produce EM thematic, market strategy and asset and country allocation recommendations.

Global Strategy

Our Global Strategy Research Service uses a markets lens to explore how our teams’ political and economic insights will impact markets globally. Our strategy research provides our clients with implications for asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management. Given their importance to our strategy research, this service also includes our proprietary economic indicators and flow of funds analysis. 

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Our Macro Research

05 Jul 2022 - Freya Beamish

Inflation will trick you

We summarize our View on transitory disinflation by painting three scenarios: the triangle, the late-23 gap and the flip-flop. In each, inflation has the final say after a period of disinflation through H2 2022 at least. READ ME
30 Jun 2022 - Davide Oneglia

ECB: Bad tightening tempo

Mounting risks of persistent inflation and supply-side pessimism imply the ECB is happy to err on the side of over-tightening, like the Fed and BoE. But why wait for the recession to hit? Pressure to hike 50bps in July is rising.

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04 Jul 2022 - Dario Perkins

The dreaded wage-price spiral

Central banks believe wages are now the main inflation threat. The BIS outlines the nightmare scenario for the monetary authorities. But we haven’t seen a genuine wage-price spiral in decades. READ ME
29 Jun 2022 - Christopher Granville

Bearish UK: Political attrition rather than shock

The political fuel for UK bearishness is less of the ‘accident’ variety…via a train wreck with the EU over Northern Ireland or Scottish secession… but flows instead from economic policy rolls of the dice in the struggle to keep hold of power. READ ME
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TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team to make good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thank you.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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