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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making bold, off consensus-calls at major inflection points in economics, politics and markets. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – identifying the crucial turning point in the cycle and calling the stock market bottom as recovery began.

We are at another inflection point. We are convinced bears, and expect the S&P 500 to fall at least 20% with longer lasting downward pressure. On our analysis stock market bulls are wildly optimistic in pricing earnings returning to ‘normal’. The private sector recovery will be slow, even assuming no resurgence of the virus. Incomes have been hammered. Companies and households have no desire to invest or spend. CapEx is on hold and household savings rates are soaring and will stay high. Our forecast is that the full year 2020 will see US GDP down nearly 4% (still -3% YoY by 2020 Q4) and the EA’s down by 8.5%. World growth will be depressed for years. The recovery from this year’s recession will only get GDP back to 2019 levels by 2022. To access all our research relating to the virus and what it means for growth and asset prices please register for trial access.

'China: The bubble that never pops': A discussion with the author, Tom Orlik, and with Jonathan Fenby and Jinny Yan

'China: The bubble that never pops': A discussion with the author, Tom Orlik, and with Jonathan Fenby and Jinny Yan

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59:46
China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

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02:29
TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

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'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (08/07/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (08/07/2020)

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02:09
China’s stock market rally is a ‘tricky wildcard’ for its economic recovery: TS Lombard

China’s stock market rally is a ‘tricky wildcard’ for its economic recovery: TS Lombard

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02:08
'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (07/09/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (07/09/2020)

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02:09
What June’s job report may imply about the U.S. economic recovery

What June’s job report may imply about the U.S. economic recovery

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U.S. budget deficit will increase next year regardless of election result, economist says

U.S. budget deficit will increase next year regardless of election result, economist says

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Research

09 Sep 2020 - Christopher Granville

Brexit bust-up: All for show

  • Sound & fury brinkmanship gives Boris Johnson political cover for a likely deal...
  • ... and political insurance against a little-noticed no-deal ‘vassalage’ trap
  • But a deal will still be an uncomfortable step down for UK business

The going for the UK will get tougher as the post-reopening bounce comes to an end. We think the worst-case scenario on Brexit will be avoided – but a deal will do little to make the UK’s winter more comfortable.

28 Aug 2020 - Charles Dumas

World's untrustworthy economy

The recovery is slower than markets hope.

  • Only China has the right policy mix for rapid recovery
  • Advanced countries are over-reliant on revived private demand
  • Export-dependence will hurt Europe and US stocks look overvalued
27 Aug 2020 - Steven Blitz

Republicans set to party like it's 1968

Markets focus on comparative tax policies, but this election is about raising fear among the electorate in order to drive voter turnout – fear will determine the outcome.

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Press

Futures rise ahead of business activity data; Nike shines

23 Sep 2020 - Reuters

“If we get a second (COVID-19) wave, it could have a significant impact on the election itself and that’s why markets have been wobbly in the last few days,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

FTSE flat, mid caps hit as PM readies new restrictions

22 Sep 2020 - Reuters

“The domestic mid-cap index is bearing the effect of investor risk averseness as they factor in the possibility of nationwide lockdown due to the coronavirus situation,” said Andrea Cicione, a strategist at T.S. Lombard.

Yes, the U.S. economy really does need more fiscal stimulus – and the stock market knows it

19 Sep 2020 - MarketWatch

“There has always been a reckoning that needs to occur which has not yet taken place,” said Steve Blitz, chief US economist for TS Lombard. “And that is the possibility of an extended recessionary environment. Because most people believe this is a COVID cycle as opposed to a true economic cycle, the forward sentiment never dropped like it would in a regular recession.”

Confused About What Oracle’s Deal With TikTok Means? Here’s What to Look For.

15 Sep 2020 - Barrons

TS Lombard’s Rory Green expects the Trump team to roll out a “playbook of anti-China moves” ahead of key debates or to try to change the news cycle.

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