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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. The coronavirus COVID-19 is causing immense concern for investors and policy makers (see our updated policy response table). It has brought many of the financial and systemic risks we have been highlighting into sharp focus. To access all our research relating to the virus and what it means for growth and asset prices please register for trial access here.   

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (05/22/2020)

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (05/22/2020)

China aims to spur demand and boost liquidity given virus impact: TS Lombard

China aims to spur demand and boost liquidity given virus impact: TS Lombard

Economic stimulus measures won’t cause recovery markets are anticipating, economist says

Economic stimulus measures won’t cause recovery markets are anticipating, economist says

As Europe Starts to Ease Restrictions, When Will Its Economy Recover?

As Europe Starts to Ease Restrictions, When Will Its Economy Recover?

China’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2020 amid virus crisis: TS Lombard

China’s GDP to grow by 2% in 2020 amid virus crisis: TS Lombard

Quick and smooth restart of economy is not realistic, strategist says

Quick and smooth restart of economy is not realistic, strategist says

PBOC will not set the yuan much weaker: China Economist

PBOC will not set the yuan much weaker: China Economist

Stocks end near session highs after Friday's big selloff

Stocks end near session highs after Friday's big selloff

07 May 2020 - Constantine Fraser

Government policy responses to Covid-19

The world’s governments are introducing unprecedented packages of support to minimise the permanent economic damage caused by the coronavirus shutdowns. We track the main policy measures implemented in the world’s largest economies.

04 May 2020 - Andrea Cicione

Real bear market starts now

  • The Fed cannot stop the recession from hitting hard
  • Bank bad loan provisions at record highs tell us more than S&P valuations
  • Microsoft and the FANGs cannot support the entire index
01 May 2020 - Dario Perkins

The equity rebound - just another bulltrap?

Risk sentiment has recovered because policymakers have ‘underwritten’ global markets. Yet, the global outlook is as dark as it was a few weeks ago, with massive uncertainty about the timing and strength of the economic recovery. Since recessionary forces will persist beyond the official lockdown period, asset prices surely face another leg down.

29 Apr 2020 - Oliver Brennan

Crisis roadmap: After the false dawn

  • The false dawn is now fading
  • Europe is more advanced through the virus peak than is the US
  • But Korea is the blueprint for going from phase 2 to phase 3 and recovery

 

Opinion: China to Increase Infrastructure Spending, but No Housing Stimulus for Now

25 May 2020 - Caixin

As we forecast, China abandoned a numerical GDP target for 2020, with the Government Work Report placing more emphasis on job market stabilization and improving people’s livelihoods, say Jonathan Fenby, Bo Zhuang and Rory Green of TS Lombard.

The mystery of China’s unemployment rate

24 May 2020 - Fortune

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, looked at reported profit and productivity declines across industrial sectors—manufacturing, services, construction—to speculate on the number of laborers that would need to be laid off in each.

Fears of Japanification spreading are misplaced

22 May 2020 - Financial Times

Charles Dumas of TS Lombard points out: “The combination of a plunging world market share and very high profit margins has only been possible with wage rates falling relative to output, incomes and gross business profits.”

China’s Hard Line on Hong Kong Could Mean Big Changes for Investors

22 May 2020 - Barrons

Capital outflows from Hong Kong bear watching, TS Lombard’s Rory Green wrote in an email.

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
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Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
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Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

Professional investors can download our equity market forecast and receive our newsletter here

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