- 2019 has brought a profound shift to views about monetary policy
- Central banks don’t believe they can hit their targets, even longer term
- This Daily Note is the second in our new “Global Fractures” series
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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.
We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. To highlight the most important themes we are publishing a series of research notes under the title of “Global Fractures”. You can read some sample reports from the series below.
Phase 1 deal is not the end. The US presidential election is pivotal for trade war volatility coming back.
Read our detailed view on the China vs. US trade war.
Equity and fixed income returns will both be lower in 2020. H1 will be much better for investors than H2.
Read our latest analysis on in/correct market pricing.
“Beijing is invested in the deal insofar as it helps the leadership’s drive to stabilize the economy and boost market confidence; at the same time, it is hoping for further tariff rollbacks in due course,” Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at the firm, wrote in a Thursday report.
Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, echoed Matthews, saying that he believes the stock market plunge at the end of 2018 and the volatility in early 2019 made households wrap up their savings and cut spending, which created a backlog of demand.
Across the Pacific, futures indicate Asian markets will open higher Thursday, according to Rory Green, an analyst focused on China and north Asia at research firm TS Lombard.
Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. and China’s “phase one” trade agreement.
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