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TS Lombard has 30 years of success in forecasting global political, economic and market developments and in generating bold, actionable ideas for our clients.

TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

Japanisation & Europe

Japanisation & Europe

China growth slowdown is just getting started

China growth slowdown is just getting started

Economist: I expect China's growth to continue to slow

Economist: I expect China's growth to continue to slow

Olcott Says Fundamentals Haven’t Changed Between U.S. and China

Olcott Says Fundamentals Haven’t Changed Between U.S. and China

Competition from southeast and northeast Asia will depress...

Competition from southeast and northeast Asia will depress...

The Chinese yuan may weaken again in mid-December: Economist

The Chinese yuan may weaken again in mid-December: Economist

Observer on challenges facing China's economy

Observer on challenges facing China's economy

04 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas

The View: Japanisation & Europe

  • Japan’s root problems: mismanagement of product strategy
  • The spread of ‘Japanisation’ to the US is therefore inconceivable
  • Europe has the symptoms: slow growth, deflation threat, negative rates
  • But in the EA, slower growth has resulted from the euro structure
  • Products are competitive and labour forces do not accept wage cuts
  • Divergence of German and Italian labour costs is especially acute
  • Over time, the chief reason has become falling Italian productivity
  • ECB interest rates are negative to protect uncompetitive Italy
  • Germany has become indefinitely undervalued in labour costs
  • Excessive budget austerity has made the whole EA export-dependent
  • Growth potential is slipping, as in Japan, but both may ‘muddle through’
  • Populism adds to EA vulnerability to accidents
01 Oct 2019 - Larry Brainard

EM Strategy Monthly: Beijing's acceptance of slower growth marks turning point in global cycle

  • Risk: We turn less negative but still think the long list of potential upsets ahead merits a continued negative call on risk.
  • Turkey: We raise our call on equities to positive, which we view as a short-term tactical move owing to the expected sharp fall in inflation in September.
  • Russia: Prospects for further declines in inflation and the key policy rate remain solid; we maintain our positive call on all Russian securities.
  • Brazil: We continue our positive rating on Brazil ahead of the final passage of pension reform and continued easing by Banco Central.
29 Sep 2019 - Steven Blitz

US Watch: Trump now needs the economy more

Economics: A slipping grasp on growth

  • Markets ignored the last rate cut, balance sheet up next
  • Industry slowing, discretionary spending too; home sales are up

Markets: small-cap premium conundrum

  • Slowing aggregate profit growth reflects weaker domestic earnings
  • Small-caps have fared worse as a result; fundamentals appear weak
  • Yet small-cap stocks still trade at premium

Politics: Impeachment means Trump needs China

  • Pelosi’s narrow needle to thread for Democrats to benefit
  • Constitutional principles are subordinate to the economy and polls
  • Trumps needs a trade deal for growth, China playing a different game
  • Global problems rise during impeachment; Ukraine pivots to Russia?
12 Sep 2019 - Dario Perkins

Macro Picture: Recession scare

With yields inverted and a slump in global manufacturing, investors are increasingly worried about the prospect of a US recession. We do not think recession is the most likely outcome over the next 12 months, but there is a risk that a period of sluggish growth and disappointing corporate earnings turns into something nastier. Here’s how...

Treasury yield curve may be back to normal but U.S. economy is not

22 Oct 2019 - Reuters

“There’s no guarantee that we are in the safety zone,” said Nikol Hearn, a macro strategist with TS Lombard. “There’s so much that can happen within the next few years.”

TS Lombard's Fraser Says the Pound Is Justified

21 Oct 2019 - Bloomberg

Constantine Fraser, TS Lombard European research analyst discusses the pound rally during Brexit talks. He speaks with Scarlet Fu and Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Markets: The Close." (Source: Bloomberg)

Economist: I expect China's growth to continue to slow

18 Oct 2019 - CNBC

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says he expects China's economy to grow at 5.8% for the fourth quarter of 2019. He says China is accepting lower growth rates in light of the trade war with the U.S.

Los unionistas irlandeses ponen en peligro el visto bueno del Parlamento

18 Oct 2019 - Expansion

Otros analistas aseguran que la diferencia en la votación será mínima. Constantine Fraser, analista de TS Lombard, cree que "si sale adelante el acuerdo, será por apenas dos votos".

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of the tectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team to make good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thank you.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be very independent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Their articles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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