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TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. To highlight the most important themes we are publishing a series of research notes under the title of “Global Fractures”. You can read some sample reports from the series below.

Economy, wages will heat up in 2020 -economist

Economy, wages will heat up in 2020 -economist

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (12/9/2019)

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (12/9/2019)

Hong Kong is likely to see another quarter of recession: Economist

Hong Kong is likely to see another quarter of recession: Economist

NATO ‘defined by bureaucratic inertia,’ expert says

NATO ‘defined by bureaucratic inertia,’ expert says

Economist Says Global Synchronized Growth ‘Very Likely’ in 2020

Economist Says Global Synchronized Growth ‘Very Likely’ in 2020

VTB Capital Russia Calling! Plenary session: Building bridges amid de-globalisation tide

VTB Capital Russia Calling! Plenary session: Building bridges amid de-globalisation tide

Alibaba’s new listing shows business can still operate in Hong Kong

Alibaba’s new listing shows business can still operate in Hong Kong

'What'd You Miss?' Full Show (11/18/2019)

'What'd You Miss?' Full Show (11/18/2019)

21 Nov 2019 - Dario Perkins

Daily Note: Monetary traps

  • 2019 has brought a profound shift to views about monetary policy
  • Central banks don’t believe they can hit their targets, even longer term
  • This Daily Note is the second in our new “Global Fractures” series
20 Nov 2019 - Larry Brainard

Daily Note: Reglobalization

  • Trump’s trade war is fracturing global supply chains
  • The fallout is intensifying China’s domestic deflationary pressures
  • This Daily Note is the first of seven in our new “Global Fractures” series

 

11 Nov 2019 - Charles Dumas / Davide Oneglia

The View: German export surfeit turns sour

  • Balanced budget obsession, weak consumers, trade war => stagnation
  • EA and Germany made passive by domestic weakness, cost imbalances
  • Modest recovery likely in 2020 after six quarters flat-lining
  • Household incomes curbed, negative interest rates resented
  • Germany & Europe lags in Information & Communications Technology
  • Failure to spread single market into services hurts advanced mfg.
  • Manufacturing too narrow a base for long-term growth of productivity
  • Lack of financial market breadth and depth also a weakness vs. USA
22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

The View: Recovery built with excess liquidity creates new recession triggers

  • Risk for households shifts to assets from liabilities
  • NFCs shift capital structure to foreign direct investment and debt
  • Private firms return, so too does the risk to them
  • Foreign sector lends to firms rather than Treasury - until now
  • Banks less leveraged with a very high percent of loans to corporates
  • Broker/Dealers constrained from calming a panicked market
  • Equity markets are the lynchpin for growth

Bond-Yield Forecasters Disagree on 2020 After 2019 Surprise

12 Dec 2019 - Wall Street Journal

“Most people—and I’m including myself—thought we’d see a trade deal by now,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. This year’s disappointment notwithstanding, Mr. Blitz is forecasting that talks between the U.S. and China will lead to a preliminary agreement.

A surge in business and consumer confidence stemming from progress on trade is likely to help spur growth next year, leading to improved risk appetite among investors and reducing the demand for the safety of government bonds, Mr. Blitz said. He said he is predicting the 10-year yield will climb to about 2.5%.

“With plenty of fits and starts and histrionics along the way, you’re moving from disorder to order,” Mr. Blitz said regarding trade.

The age of austerity is over, says British analyst

12 Dec 2019 - Folha de S. Paulo

Fraser says the ease of debt (with excess liquidity) and voter demand for more services and public investment has changed the way British politicians view the size of the state. Whatever the outcome of the election, there will be more spending and more intervention in the economy.

So We're All Agreed. This Fed Unity Spells Trouble

12 Dec 2019 - Bloomberg

The only real risk in such a united scenario is that it creates the ideal conditions for policymakers and currency traders to step on a rake. After a blissfully quiet afternoon with Jay Powell, I think we should all treasure the gloriously curmudgeonly response of Steve Blitz, U.S. economist for TS Lombard: History has shown that whenever the Fed is pretty unanimous leaning in one direction, the economy/inflation is about to zig in the other direction. Fading the Fed when it is so certain has rarely been a bad trade.

The U.S. and China May Actually Have an Interim Trade Deal. Get Ready for a Market Rally.

12 Dec 2019 - Barrons

Sectors that have had tariffs looming overhead, including consumer electronics and apparel vendors, would also benefit in the U.S., along with the companies that manufacture those goods in China, says Rory Green, TS Lombard economist. 

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of thetectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team tomake good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thankyou.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be veryindependent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Theirarticles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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