30 years of independent research linking macro to markets

Evaluate our insights and receive our monthly newsletter on our latest global macro themes and events.

TS Lombard has a 30 year track record in making off consensus-calls on major turning points in economics, politics and markets. We have made our reputation by making bold calls ahead of major inflection points. For example, building on our global economic and financial analysis to find imbalances and fragilities, we identified the coming storm of the Global Financial Crisis – and just as importantly we identified the turning point and the bottom of the stock market too. The different policy responses to the crisis have led to the greater uncertainty and volatility that investors face today.

We believe that the global economy is at another inflection point. The world has changed and we see several new and different vulnerabilities coming to the fore, each one equally important and any one of which could lead to market ruptures. These issues call for deep thinking and strong analysis. To highlight the most important themes we are publishing a series of research notes under the title of “Global Fractures”. You can read some sample reports from the series below.

Emerging Markets coming into 2020

Emerging Markets coming into 2020

Trade deal has 'no bite' as it lacks an enforcement mechanism: Expert

Trade deal has 'no bite' as it lacks an enforcement mechanism: Expert

Three structural political drivers to look out for in 2020

Three structural political drivers to look out for in 2020

No one will win in the US-China trade war: Expert

No one will win in the US-China trade war: Expert

Economy, wages will heat up in 2020 -economist

Economy, wages will heat up in 2020 -economist

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (12/9/2019)

'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (12/9/2019)

Hong Kong is likely to see another quarter of recession: Economist

Hong Kong is likely to see another quarter of recession: Economist

NATO ‘defined by bureaucratic inertia,’ expert says

NATO ‘defined by bureaucratic inertia,’ expert says

21 Nov 2019 - Dario Perkins

Daily Note: Monetary traps

  • 2019 has brought a profound shift to views about monetary policy
  • Central banks don’t believe they can hit their targets, even longer term
  • This Daily Note is the second in our new “Global Fractures” series
20 Nov 2019 - Larry Brainard

Daily Note: Reglobalization

  • Trump’s trade war is fracturing global supply chains
  • The fallout is intensifying China’s domestic deflationary pressures
  • This Daily Note is the first of seven in our new “Global Fractures” series

 

11 Nov 2019 - Charles Dumas / Davide Oneglia

The View: German export surfeit turns sour

  • Balanced budget obsession, weak consumers, trade war => stagnation
  • EA and Germany made passive by domestic weakness, cost imbalances
  • Modest recovery likely in 2020 after six quarters flat-lining
  • Household incomes curbed, negative interest rates resented
  • Germany & Europe lags in Information & Communications Technology
  • Failure to spread single market into services hurts advanced mfg.
  • Manufacturing too narrow a base for long-term growth of productivity
  • Lack of financial market breadth and depth also a weakness vs. USA
22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

The View: Recovery built with excess liquidity creates new recession triggers

  • Risk for households shifts to assets from liabilities
  • NFCs shift capital structure to foreign direct investment and debt
  • Private firms return, so too does the risk to them
  • Foreign sector lends to firms rather than Treasury - until now
  • Banks less leveraged with a very high percent of loans to corporates
  • Broker/Dealers constrained from calming a panicked market
  • Equity markets are the lynchpin for growth

China to stick to ‘phase one’ commitments, holding trade deal through US election, TS Lombard says

17 Jan 2020 - CNBC

“Beijing is invested in the deal insofar as it helps the leadership’s drive to stabilize the economy and boost market confidence; at the same time, it is hoping for further tariff rollbacks in due course,” Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at the firm, wrote in a Thursday report.

Spotlight: Experts believe strong fundamentals, consumer confidence linchpins to solid U.S. consumption growth

17 Jan 2020 - Xinhua

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, echoed Matthews, saying that he believes the stock market plunge at the end of 2018 and the volatility in early 2019 made households wrap up their savings and cut spending, which created a backlog of demand.

US markets lose early gains on phase one trade war deal signing as traders worry about wider issues

16 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

Across the Pacific, futures indicate Asian markets will open higher Thursday, according to Rory Green, an analyst focused on China and north Asia at research firm TS Lombard.

Trade deal has ‘no bite’ as it lacks an enforcement mechanism: Expert

16 Jan 2020 - CNBC

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. and China’s “phase one” trade agreement.

TS Lombard's is the only research that has helped me to achieve some understanding of thetectonic shifts in the global economy over the last thirty years.
Anna Gaworzewska, Head of Country Risk Economics, Lloyds Banking Group
Congratulations on your Fed call. A feather in your cap. We can always count on your team tomake good calls ahead of consensus. That is really valuable to us and our clients. Thankyou.
Richard Rock, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Caprock Group
I have been a subscriber for a very long time and have found TS Lombard to be veryindependent in their economic analysis and invariably correct in their surmise. Theirarticles are full of originality and always make me reassess my own views.
Ian Ling, Ashburton Investments and Private Investor

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