Wilson Ferrarezi

Wilson Ferrarezi

Economist, Brazil Research

Wilson joined the company in 2018 as an economist covering Brazil. Prior to this Wilson spent two years with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch economic research & fixed income strategy team in Sao Paulo covering Brazil economics and politics, after having worked at AXA Insurances with risk underwriting.

Wilson has a BSc in Economics from the University of Sao Paulo. He was awarded with an academic merit scholarship in Economics and spent one semester at the University of Coimbra, in Portugal. Wilson also studied Financial Modelling at Insper, in Sao Paulo. He speaks fluent English and Portuguese, and advanced Spanish.

Wilson Ferrarezi contributes to the Brazil, LatAm and EM Watch publications.

Brazil: In depth on-the-ground analysis of the political economy and policy forces that will affect growth and markets. (Monday and Thursday)
LatAm: Regional coverage supported by local sources with emphasis on Mexico. (1 note per month)
EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)

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May 2019 - Brazil

Wilson Ferrarezi's Top Market Calls

Shifting Pemex risk
We said:
The government's latest moves to aid Pemex have given the struggling firm fresh fiscal relief, but fall far short of mitigating risks for its new USD8+ bn refinery. 

More tax cuts for Pemex are forthcoming but a federal rainy day fund will no longer be tapped. This is positive for Pemex bondholders, but the firm's structural woes are unlikely to go away without a big change in energy policy; as fiscal risk migrates from the firm to the government, this will buy Pemex time but also boost the odds of sovereign ratings downgrades. 
Outcome: On June 5, Fitch downgraded Mexico's sovereign rating by one notch to BBB, and as a result, downgraded Pemex by one notch to junk the following day. On June 6, Moody's - which rates Pemex one notch above junk - changed its credit outlook to negative. 

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