In recent years, geopolitical tensions and risks have increased in importance for financial markets and investors. The forces at work are larger than any single country or company, they have become strategic geopolitical trends that cannot be captured by economic research and due diligence. Intelligent forecasting that will help you anticipate major events, in order to hedge against or benefit from emerging global and regional risks.
Our political risks analysts are based either in London or in the emerging market countries that they cover. Being based in country allows our team to understand political systems and policy drivers. This deeper level of understanding enable us to understand the cumulative effects of policy over time and better forecast the timing of political risks and inflection points.
Our Approach to Geopolitical Research
Our research team scouts the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape for emerging tensions, risks and trends and then explores how they will impact individual countries and global markets.
Our emerging markets analysts are embedded within the culture of the country they are monitoring, but retain an outsider’s perspective – helping them to challenge perceptions. This allows us to formulate a more nuanced picture of political risk, how the political system is likely to act over time, how its actions may have an impact on other economies and how it will react to both internal and external shocks. In addition, every high-conviction view is tested by our panel of senior analysts, ensuring that each recommendation is backed up by rigorous analysis and debate.
Our geopolitical research expertise enriches and complements our three investment research services: Global Macro, China and Global Emerging Markets and Global Strategy.
The GRID offers a distillation of our country teams’ fundamental political-economy insights into the emerging markets we cover; China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Philippians, Thailand, South Africa and Turkey.READ ME
The recent online summit between Presidents Biden and Putin reduces the risks associated with the present flare-up of the geopolitical confrontation surrounding Ukraine. The first of two reasons for coming to this conclusion is conventional: if the principals are talking, the risk of accident or miscalculation should be reduced.READ ME
The decarbonization of heavy industry is approaching a tipping point that also entails a paradigm shift for global trade – a sea change from seven-and-a-half decades of multilateral trade policy and one that will raise DM-EM tensionsREAD ME
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We combine geopolitical insights with macroeconomic analysis to provide a joined-up picture of the global economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking with high conviction.
Using the wealth of geopolitical and macroeconomic insight at our disposal, our team of geopolitical investment strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased implications for global markets, including asset allocation, investment positioning and cross asset portfolio risk management.