In recent years, geopolitical tensions and risks have increased in importance for financial markets and investors. The forces at work are larger than any single country or company, they have become strategic geopolitical trends that cannot be captured by economic research and due diligence. Intelligent forecasting that will help you anticipate major events, in order to hedge against or benefit from emerging global and regional risks.
Our political risks analysts are based either in London or in the emerging market countries that they cover. Being based in country allows our team to understand political systems and policy drivers. This deeper level of understanding enable us to understand the cumulative effects of policy over time and better forecast the timing of political risks and inflection points.
Our Approach to Geopolitical Research
Our research team scouts the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape for emerging tensions, risks and trends and then explores how they will impact individual countries and global markets.
Our emerging markets analysts are embedded within the culture of the country they are monitoring, but retain an outsider’s perspective – helping them to challenge perceptions. This allows us to formulate a more nuanced picture of political risk, how the political system is likely to act over time, how its actions may have an impact on other economies and how it will react to both internal and external shocks. In addition, every high-conviction view is tested by our panel of senior analysts, ensuring that each recommendation is backed up by rigorous analysis and debate.
Our geopolitical research expertise enriches and complements our three investment research services: Global Macro, China and Global Emerging Markets and Global Strategy.
Rising US Treasury yields have given EM investors cause for concern. In the absence of global inflationary pressures, however, the dollar, rather than nominal yields, is the likely most important external driver of EM risk sentiment, and many EM currencies remain undervalued vs the dollar.READ ME
Broad support for Biden’s first laundry list of proposals requires a general buy-in to get Covid under control soon threatens the broader economy. Problem is, the data have run contrary to this threat, but this may be beginning to change. For most, since last spring Covid has been a disruption not broadly felt as a contraction in activity and top line data bear out this view.READ ME
Not being Trump is not enough to successfully govern through the next four years, Biden must turn the base that elected him into a base for him. He will have this political challenge in mind as policies are initiated to tackle the vast array of risks the nation faces.READ ME
The vaccine response of EM governments looks set to be key for investor sentiment amid an accelerating second Covid wave. EM currencies are caught between export competitiveness risk as world trade recovers and growing inflationary pressures amid a weak dollar environmentREAD ME
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We combine geopolitical insights with macroeconomic analysis to provide a joined-up picture of the global economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking with high conviction.
Using the wealth of geopolitical and macroeconomic insight at our disposal, our team of geopolitical investment strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased implications for global markets, including asset allocation, investment positioning and cross asset portfolio risk management.