In recent years, geopolitical tensions and risks have increased in importance for financial markets and investors. The forces at work are larger than any single country or company, they have become strategic geopolitical trends that cannot be captured by economic research and due diligence. Intelligent forecasting that will help you anticipate major events, in order to hedge against or benefit from emerging global and regional risks.
Our political risks analysts are based either in London or in the emerging market countries that they cover. Being based in country allows our team to understand political systems and policy drivers. This deeper level of understanding enable us to understand the cumulative effects of policy over time and better forecast the timing of political risks and inflection points.
Our Approach to Geopolitical Research
Our research team scouts the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape for emerging tensions, risks and trends and then explores how they will impact individual countries and global markets.
Our emerging markets analysts are embedded within the culture of the country they are monitoring, but retain an outsider’s perspective – helping them to challenge perceptions. This allows us to formulate a more nuanced picture of political risk, how the political system is likely to act over time, how its actions may have an impact on other economies and how it will react to both internal and external shocks. In addition, every high-conviction view is tested by our panel of senior analysts, ensuring that each recommendation is backed up by rigorous analysis and debate.
Our geopolitical research expertise enriches and complements our three investment research services: Global Macro, China and Global Emerging Markets and Global Strategy.
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Former President Lula officially launched his campaign this week, confirming his move to the centre in an effort to expand his voter base. Bolsonaro has adopted the opposite strategy and continues to tailor his campaign messages to his core base.READ ME
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Russia: "Forever war" propsect
The ray of hope lit up by the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul on 29 March has proved a false dawn. Not for the first time during this crisis, our pessimistic conclusion at the time – No quick peace dividend – turned out to be not pessimistic enough.READ ME
Fiscally dominant FranceLe Pen tail risk focus misses the bigger French election picture. ‘Cohabitation’ in Macron’s second term will entail fiscal stimulus. This positive prospect underpinned by French ‘exorbitant privilege’. READ ME
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We combine geopolitical insights with macroeconomic analysis to provide a joined-up picture of the global economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking with high conviction.
Using the wealth of geopolitical and macroeconomic insight at our disposal, our team of geopolitical investment strategists are able to provide actionable, unbiased implications for global markets, including asset allocation, investment positioning and cross asset portfolio risk management.