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Davide Oneglia
Senior Economist
Davide joined the TS Lombard Macro team in January 2017. He covers various global macroeconomic themes with a focus on the euro area. Davide’s research interests include central bank liquidity, inflation, labour markets and global supply chains.
Prior to this, Davide spent a year and a half working for the Securities and Finance practice of NERA Economic Consulting in London, where he focussed on asset pricing. Davide graduated in Economics from Bocconi University in 2013, holds an M.Sc. in Economics and Management from London School of Economics.
Davide Oneglia contributes to the Europe Watch an Global Financial Trends publications.
Europe Watch: Updates of our key European economic, political and policy and market views. (One note per week)
Global Financial Trends: Analysis and forecast of global financing conditions and the credit cycle with early warning of vulnerabilities in the financial system and potential triggers. (10 issues a year)
Davide Oneglia's top market calls
Covid-19: The Coming Demand Shock and the Needed Policy Response
We said: The Covid-19 pandemic will damage domestic demand, especially services. Countries in the EA periphery are the most exposed. Limiting the transmission of negative spillovers to firms’ cash flows and to employment is crucial to avoid more serious medium-term damage from contagion. Fiscal policy will need to be stepped up significantly. Don’t write off ECB easing: serious discussions about changing the ECB’s self-imposed limits on ECB QE should be on the cards by now.
Outcome: Domestic demand collapsed, led by services, especially in tourist-dependent EA periphery. EA consensus (according to a Bloomberg survey) growth forecasts for this year were revised down from 1% to -8%. EA governments strengthened or introduced income/employment support programmes and provided liquidity to firms via guaranteed loans and equity injections causing national budget deficits to widen dramatically. Few days later, the ECB launched new liquidity measures including a €750bn asset purchase programme – the PEPP – to which the traditional asset purchase constraints did not apply.
Deflationary bias to be pronounced in the euro area
We said: A large negative output gap, huge labour income losses, and a sharp rise in uncertainty and precautionary savings will keep inflationary pressures subdued in the euro area for longer. Surging money and credit growth – usually considered precursors to rapid economic growth – mask fragile underlying credit trends.
Outcome: Inflation has missed consensus forecasts since the pandemic. Inflation expectations for this year (according to a Bloomberg Survey) have been revised lower from 1% to 0.3%.
