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Konstantinos Venetis
Director, Global Macro
Konstantinos Venetis joined TS Lombard in February 2015 as a global economist. He started covering EMs, before becoming the lead analyst on the UK, Japan and commodities (oil/metals). He has well-rounded experience in financial markets, starting his career at Bear Stearns’ investment banking division and subsequently working as a trader, fund manager and research analyst.
Konstantinos holds an M.Phil. in Economics and a B.A. in Philosophy, Politics & Economics from Oxford University.
Konstantinos Venetis contributes to the UK Outlook and Global Macro Monthly publications.
UK Outlook: Comprehensive analysis and 2 year forecast for all major UK economic variables and sectors. (Quarterly)
Global Macro Monthly: Top-down macro analysis informed by TS Lombard's proprietary leading indicators, which have a successful track record of anticipating major turning points in the economic cycle.
Konstantinos Venetis' Top Market Calls
Bullish on Oil
We said: “Near term, the combination of optimism over a vaccine, falling crude inventories and a defensive OPEC+ posture could lift oil prices towards the summer highs and possibly beyond”.
Outcome: Prices continued to trend higher.
Industrial commodities to outperform gold
We said: “If history is any guide, industrials are more likely to catch up with gold rather than the other way around. This would be consistent with a powerful turnaround in the global cycle, validating expectations for a steeper yield curve”.
Outcome: Gold/CRB Industrials ratio down sharply, exceeding our expectations.
Anticipating oil correction
We said: “For the time being…we feel that a wait-and-see stance is warranted as the sustainability of the market’s advance is bound to come under more scrutiny”.
Outcome: Prices rose another 6% in the following three weeks, then corrected lower by 18% over the next two months. our expectations.
Oil bottoming out
Oil bottoming out - We said: “Hard to see prices staying so low (and the contango so wide) for long, even as further downside volatility cannot be ruled out… By this time next year, do not be surprised if the market’s focus has shifted to upside oil price risks… the playbook might be different, but the cycle will still play out.”
Outcome: market turned around, prices now already back at January 2020 levels.
