Head of Macro Research
Freya rejoined TS Lombard in 2021.
In 2011, she joined Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva in identifying a loss of competitiveness of Chinese firms, leading to the slowdown in growth, and sharp rise in leverage.
In 2013, Freya called time on the bubble in Asian debt, immediately before the taper tantrum.
In 2016, she used flow of funds and liquidity analysis to forecast that China’s most likely path entailed a run-up in household debt, as a result of the corporate attempt to deleverage, generating a property shock at the end of the cycle. The Evergrande saga is a corollary.
In 2016, she showed how building financial fragilities in Japan’s external balance sheet would force the BoJ to switch to yield curve control.
In 2020, her forecast of the Q1 GDP contraction in the eye of the Covid storm was the closest among Bloomberg forecaster contributors, lending weight to her true real GDP estimates, at a moment when the authorities chose to reveal all in their official GDP print.