Steven Blitz

Market Recap: Wednesday, June 2

Rory Green

Rory Green on China’s shrinking working-age population

Steven Blitz-1

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The Cost of Free Money

Steven Blitz, TS Lombard

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"Today, with China accelerating past the US in 5G deployment, the Chinese consumer internet could be viewed as a new investment “time machine”
Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist, SCMP
“These are things that change very slowly over time"
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, Wall Street Journal
"The legislation doesn’t so much fundamentally rewire the economy as bolster the temporary lifelines first offered in last spring’s CARES Act"
Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist, Reuters
“The market is starting to appreciate that higher yields are not necessarily a bad thing for stocks, as long as they reflect higher growth and inflation expectations”
Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy, Reuters
“Ma’s departure, with Cai and Wang’s academic background, implies PBOC’s research and policy focuses have shifted inwards"
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, Bloomberg
“As a municipal government, you have to be very wary of expanding your capital plant and maintaining your capital plant, especially in a period of inflation”
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, quote in The Guardian
“This goes against common sense. The government must significantly adjust the numbers to make the demographic statistics consistent.”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, quote in Financial Times
"China is still central to global inflation dynamics, but this time around the country is importing inflation from the global economy and is now in the command seat to re-export that inflation abroad in rising prices of manufactured exports that are now in demand in developed markets"
Larry Brainard, Chairman, Emerging Markets Panel, quote in Reuters
“Xiong’an has had trouble taking off because the invisible hand of the market has a bigger impact than government intervention.”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, quote in Financial Times
“We have been scaling back our GDP forecast. It now stands at 9% versus 10.5% in March."
Shumita Deveshwar, Senior Director, India Research, quote in Forbes
"It could take China at least 10 years to catch up on leading-edge advanced chip technology."
Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist, quote in Barron's
"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID"
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, quote in Reuters
“The euro area will not reach its pre-pandemic trend level of GDP until at least 2023”
Shweta Singh, Managing Director, Global Macro and Europe Economics, quote in The Telegraph
“It’s going to be an exceptionally strong couple of quarters going forward, and that makes it very unlikely that the market will suffer in a big way over the next six months”
Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy, quote in Reuters
“The political fallout of the crisis won’t be immediately evident as Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to make heavy gains in polls currently underway in West Bengal – a state where it had an insignificant presence until just a few years ago”
Shumita Deveshwar, Senior Director, India Research, quote in Forbes
"The sanctions are calibrated to be serious but not too serious. It's serious because it's not just another round of political sanctions targeting a few officials or blacklisting companies no one has ever heard of"
Christopher Granville, Managing Director, EMEA and Global Political Research, quote in Reuters
“The biggest risk to the expansion is the Fed. The puppet master is trying to control a puppet that they do not have control over.”
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist , quote in CNBC
"The dollar’s weakness is unlikely to last because the U.S. economy is expected to outpace others"
Oliver Brennan, Head of Research, quote in Wall Street Journal
“Exports and industrial production have slowed down from very high levels. The previous production-led, or export-led growth is running out of steam.”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, quote in Fortune Magazine
"We expect authorities to provide Huarong support, given its importance in the broader financial system."
Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist, quote in Barron's
“Investors are primed for an inflation scare,” says Dario Perkins, even though he thinks it is unlikely to last.
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, quote in WSJ
“The bull case for equities is persuasive in a recovering economy. Earnings expectations have caught up with the pre-crisis level; risk here remains to the upside.”
Oliver Brennan, Head of Research, quote in CNBC
“In the short term, China's biggest consideration is to let Europe remain neutral in the US-China dispute, so the CAI is more like a carrot that China has offered. Between China and Europe, it's easier for Europe to let go of the CAI."
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, quote in The Financial Times
"The tapering bet suggests that COVID-19 will be contained enough this year so that hard-hit services industries will have rehired laid-off workers - that is where the bulk of the roughly 9.5 million remaining lost jobs from the pandemic comes from."
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, quote in MarketWatch