“The multiplier of monetary easing, in particular, is much lower, given property sector weakness and Covid. With zero-Covid in place, consumer and business mobility will remain restricted, consumer confidence and wages weak, and with it demand for credit low."
So, latching onto an emotive Brexit-related wedge issue of the EU trying to divide up the U.K. and dictate to the U.K.— and the U.K. government shows it is standing up to Brussels and ditching the protocol”
"It's going to look as if the soft landing will be coming through in the next six months"
“Because of their inept handling of monetary policy last year, and their own belief in a fairytale world as opposed to seeing what was really going on, they put the US economy and markets in this position that they now have to unwind”
"One of the caveats to this line of thought is that in the 1970s in the UK there were several recessions that were caused by high inflation, but inflation did not actually fall"
“The Fed is trying to squeeze inflation out of the U.S. The spillover effect is they’re squeezing inflation into the rest of the world"
“Consumers have been big buyers of equities ever since 2016, in particular. We’ve seen a really big correlation between equity prices and discretionary spending"
"China’s full integration into the global economy since the early 1990s has been a key factor behind the steady rise in share prices on Wall Street"
“They kept thinking, ‘This is enough. This is enough.’ It kept turning out it wasn’t enough. Today the Fed has a lot of catching up to do to tighten financial conditions if the world is not going to come to its rescue.”
“The falling birth rate will result in fewer workers and consumers contributing to economic growth”
"In particular, a nearly 9% drop in the S&P 500 index (.SPX) over the past month may show a coming hit to household wealth that quickly translates into lower consumer spending"
“Abramovich is the point guy on the ground to do what he can to advance the proposals and the mediation efforts that the Israeli Prime Minister has spearheaded”
Fear over imminent regulation or higher costs of emissions could be part of the reason shale supply has been so slow to respond to higher oil prices, though greater capital discipline and disbelief in pandemic prices were part of the story too.
"The 1960s saw one of the longest expansions on record. It also saw a flattening of the Phillips curve — that is, falling unemployment was not correlating with rising inflation in the way one might expect."
“What China publishes as a target and what they actually aim to achieve are two separate things. The actual number will be published close to the target. But the reality could be significantly weaker.”
"It is becoming difficult to remain constructive on risk in the face of the current exceptional uncertainty."