Christopher Granville TS Lombard

Russia’s economy will limp on without much deeper dislocation, strategist says

Steven Blitz TS Lombard

BBC World Business Report 02/03/2022

Sblitz

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Shumita Deveshwar

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Steven Blitz-1

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Fear over imminent regulation or higher costs of emissions could be part of the reason shale supply has been so slow to respond to higher oil prices, though greater capital discipline and disbelief in pandemic prices were part of the story too.
Freya Beamish, Head of Macro Research, quote in Barron's
"The 1960s saw one of the longest expansions on record. It also saw a flattening of the Phillips curve — that is, falling unemployment was not correlating with rising inflation in the way one might expect."
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, quote in the Financial Times
“What China publishes as a target and what they actually aim to achieve are two separate things. The actual number will be published close to the target. But the reality could be significantly weaker.”
Freya Beamish, Head of Macro Research, quote in Bloomberg
"It is becoming difficult to remain constructive on risk in the face of the current exceptional uncertainty."
Andrea Cicione, Head of Research, quote in Reuters
“The calamity of Russia’s war in Ukraine has put an end to international financial investing in Russia”
Christopher Granville, Head of Political Research, quote in Bloomberg
“Generally those measures focusing on the supply side don’t have an immediately noticeable impact on retail sales”
Rory Green, Head of China & Asia Research, quote in The Wall Street Journal
“Why did firms put their production in China? Because it’s cheaper. And the beneficiary of these cheaper products has been the American consumer.”
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, quote in USA Today
“Southeast Asia is likely to be less vulnerable to inflation initially, suggesting that local debt could outperform, while bond curves elsewhere could invert as central banks try to get ahead of inflation risks”
Jon Harrison, Managing Director, Emerging Markets Strategy, quote in Bloomberg
"The view Russia will be unaffected is wrong. The negative effects may not be felt up front but sanctions will hobble Russia's potential in the longer run"
Christopher Granville, Head of Political Research, quote in Reuters
“The initial package of U.S. sanctions appears limited (forbidding investment into Ukraine’s separatist regions), while EU leaders are split on the severity of the sanctions to enforce"
Davide Oneglia, Director, European & Global Macro, quote in Reuters
"The beginning of monetary policy normalization and higher interest rates in the U.S. could fuel currency weakness later this year, although the current rate-differential levels – the widest since April 2017 – will likely continue to benefit the Brazilian currency in the near term"
Wilson Ferrarezi, Brazil Economist, quote in Reuters
“Markets are not very good at pricing geopolitical risks and this tends to lead to unusual levels of volatility”
Andrea Cicione, Head of Research, quote in Bloomberg
"The crucial difference between the last two decades and the 40 years before them, at least as far as monetary policy has been concerned, has been in companies’ pricing power"
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, quote in Bloomberg
“The inflation that we’re seeing is a function of these one-time infusions of equity into households and small-business balance sheets. The money was spent, and it was spent at a time when the ability to supply that demand was constrained”
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, quote in CNBC
“However, the bank’s credibility is at stake now as it starts to increase interest rates without a good reason for doing so”
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, quote in The Guardian
"The initial selloff of Russian stocks has halted. Implicitly, the market is pricing a resolution"
Christopher Granville, Head of Political Research, quote in Bloomberg