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Market Recap: Thursday, November 5th

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TS Lombard Economist on the latest jobless claims numbers and economic activity as states reopen

Bo Zhuang, TS Lombard CNBC interview

China’s strong exports growth in August would boost the country’s growth in second half of 2020

Steven Blitz, TS Lombard Yahoo Finance Interview

Market Recap: Monday, December 14

Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard on CNBC

Chinese authorities are still failing to manage default risks properly: TS Lombard

Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard, CNBC Interview on RCEP

The 'Trump trade offensive' on China hasn't had a major effect, expert says

“The Communist Party has realized that fintech has prospered in the regulatory grey area between finance and technology.”
Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist, Barron's
“We expect pressure on their profits and business lines. This is a headwind to MSCI China and a reason why we are neutral China equities.”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist and Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist, Barron's
“The real story is about 2022 and beyond.”
Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, Financial Times
“While one should not expect Johnson to make any inroads with Von der Leyen tonight, the addition of respective negotiators Frost and Barnier to the guest list is a positive signal.”
Oliver Brennan, Head of Research, Reuters
"As this chart from TS Lombard makes clear, the critical steps in bringing peripheral countries’ yield spreads under control all seem to have come from the ECB and its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, or PEPP"
Davide Oneglia, Economist, Bloomberg
“Stick to the government, and maybe you can buy the policy banks, financial bonds, which are also quasi-sovereign”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, CNBC
"Covid has temporarily increased the difficulty of decoupling from China – it was already incredibly difficult."
Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist, South China Morning Post
"If markets are not too far ahead of themselves, then China is a buy."
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, Forbes
"Since Pfizer announced the results of its third-phase vaccine trials on November 9th, the energy sector has rallied by a third and financials by more than one-tenth."
Oliver Brennan, Head of Research, CNBC
“U.S. currency weakness is good news for global markets and the world economy. Trade will increase, financial conditions improve—risk on!”
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, Barron's
“The fastest way for officials to get promoted is to boost the size of the local economy and an SOE merger, regardless of its business logic, is a shortcut”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, Financial Times
“Mnuchin has, in round numbers, effectively given Congress a way to get to a $1tn stimulus package by only raising the deficit $500bn, which is the cap that McConnell had put on his offer.”
Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist, Financial Times
"The US-China conflict over trade and technology is no longer the single biggest risk for investors in Chinese technology”
Eleanor Olcott, Analyst, China Policy, South China Morning Post
“This is still a long road ahead for us as far as a sustainable recovery is concerned.”
Shumita Deveshwar, Senior Director, India Research, Financial Times
“We’re going down the austerity road again. It is as if we learned nothing from the last decade. Bond yields are at a 700-year low and it’s screaming at us that we have got fiscal policy wrong. There is a consensus among economists that we should never let austerity happen again, but the politicians won’t spend.”
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, The Telegraph
“I think what we’re looking at here is a bit of a bubble developing. Covid basically triggered the mania phase of a bubble.”
Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy, Forbes
“Large U.S. fiscal stimulus is unlikely, but a rebound in activity after a vaccine will be enough to stoke growth on its own"
Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist, Barron's
"If we do have an effective vaccine, we go back to where we were in March. There is a much more compelling case for throwing everything at it. We now see where we need to get to.”
Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro, Wall Street Journal
“The likes of Ant Group have grown by so much that the government now sees them as a drag on, rather than a driver of, the economy.”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, Financial Times
"The Fed is stuck with a reactive position because there are no more rate cuts to be had, leaving them to manage the size and maturity of their balance sheet in case equity markets crumble."
Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist, Bloomberg
“Central banks are impotent in this. The only thing you can do from a governmental standpoint is transfer income”
Steven Blitz, Chief U.S Economist, Wall Street Journal
“The best way to survive in a tough business environment is to keep cash in hand and pay suppliers as late as possible”
Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, Financial Times
"The impact of sanctions would be limited since U.S. defense companies are broadly limited from making military sales to China."
Rory Green, Economist, China and North Asia, Barron's
“If you have a Senate that is not going to give Biden the fiscal freedom that he needs, they are going to make this downturn worse”
Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist, Financial Times
“Massive fiscal spending in Korea is certainly helping his popularity. The weaker the rebound, the more untenable a fiscally conservative political stance becomes"
Rory Green, Economist, China and North Asia, Bloomberg