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Rory Green
Economist, China and North Asia
Rory joined the company in 2018 as an economist covering China and South Korea. Prior to this Rory spent four years with PRC Macro Advisors, a Beijing based economic research firm specialising in China’s political economy. From 2016, Rory was located in Seoul where he led the company’s Korea research. During this period, he also continued to cover China, specialising in macroeconomic forecasting and industrial policy.
Rory has a BA (Joint Hons) in History & French from the University of Manchester. Rory was awarded two Chinese government scholarships in Economics and Mandarin, and obtained an MSc in Economics from Beijing Normal University in 2014. Rory speaks fluent Mandarin and French, and advanced Korean.
Rory Green contributes to the EM Watch and China Watch publications.
EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)
China: Analysis of key economic and policy drivers and what they mean for China related markets. (One note per week)
Rory Green's Top Market Calls
Buy China, Korea and Taiwan
We said: China was first-in the Covid-19 crisis and would be first out. Korea and Taiwan also stood out for the management of the pandemic, their close linkages to China, and the weight of Tech in their stock market indices. In our AA model portfolio we’ve been o/w China Equities since March, and Korea and Taiwan since May.
Outcome: China equities are up 48% (in USD terms) since March; Korea and Taiwan by 34% and 31% since May, respectively – outperforming the MSCI-ex US, which rose 36% and 18% over these periods. (Performance as of 23-Oct-2020.)
Overweight Korea Equities and FX
We said: In April, we forecasted the economic outperformance of Korea and Taiwan based on; covid containment, electronic component-heavy exports and proximity to China and its recovery. We doubled down on our projections for East Asian economic strength in July. Ahead of the US election, we added a further structural driver to Korean and Taiwanese growth – the tech war – which promises to boost demand for Asian high end electronic components.
Outcome: We went overweight Korean and Taiwanese equities in May 2020 and have been long the KRW in Macro Strategy since June. MSCI TW is the top performing index globally with MSCI KR just behind. As of 18/11/20 Our KRW trade is up 7.42%.
