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Shumita Deveshwar
Chief India Economist
Shumita Sharma Deveshwar joined TS Lombard in 2007. She heads the India team based in New Delhi and focuses on India’s macroeconomy. Major research themes include fiscal and monetary policy, and she has broad expertise in banking and consumer demand. She travels regularly to different regions of India to take the pulse on what's happening the ground.
Before joining TS Lombard, Shumita was the India economist for DSP Merrill Lynch in Mumbai. Prior to that, she reported on emerging markets, focusing on debt and macroeconomic issues, for Dow Jones Newswires in New York and covered the Indian economy for the same company from New Delhi. She completed her Master's degree in international relations at Yale University and has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Delhi University.
Shumita Deveshwar contributes to the EM Watch and India publications.
EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)
India: On-the-ground coverage of the political economy and policy developments that drive growth and reform. (2 to 4 notes per month)
Shumita Deveshwar's Top Market Calls
Looming threat of stagflation
We said: Weak investment growth risks prolonging inflationary pressures. High inflation will constrain a much-needed fiscal, monetary stimulus.
Outcome: The RBI has been on hold since May 2020 (when it last cut rates sharply), and core inflation has been sticky. An uneven recovery in growth and worries about the impact of a second, more infectious wave of Covid-19 cases are compelling the RBI to keep monetary policy accommodative as well as to ensure adequate liquidity even as it warns against persistent inflationary pressures due to supply-side constraints.
Dire cost of health vs economy
We said: India cannot afford a nationwide lockdown that it had implemented that day, as it would be devastating for both people’s health and the economy.
Outcome: India's GDP shrank by the largest amount among G20 countries in the April-June quarter, and continued to contract sharply in the July-September quarter. Meanwhile, the number of daily virus cases jumped to the highest in the world, and India has become the 2nd most infected country after the US.
