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View our summary videos on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with zdl@tslombard.com

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Giving Investors the Full Picture

TS Lombard has a 29 year track record of bold and incisive analysis of Economics, Politics and Markets. This brief video explains how and why our research is unique.

Giving Investors the Full Picture
FEATURED VIDEO

TS Lombard: Combining Economics, Politics and Markets

TS Lombard was formed in September 2016 following the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources.

TS Lombard: Combining Economics, Politics and Markets

Media

Fed Likely to React to Inflation in December, TS Lombard Says

Fed Likely to React to Inflation in December, TS Lombard Says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, talks about the nation's economy, Federal Reserve policy, and Treasury yield curve. He speaks with Ramy Inocencio and Paul Allen on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia."

Syria likely to be high on Trump and Putin's agenda: TS Lombard

Syria likely to be high on Trump and Putin's agenda: TS Lombard

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the looming Trump-Putin bilateral.

Economist: Populism the result of policy failures over the last 25 years

Economist: Populism the result of policy failures over the last 25 years

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the rise of global populism and his new book Populism and Economics.

Trump right that Iran's hostility in Middle East can't carry on: TS Lombard

Trump right that Iran's hostility in Middle East can't carry on: TS Lombard

Marcus Chenevix, MENA and global political analyst at TS Lombard, speaks about U.S. foreign policy on Iran.

US inflation taking a back seat to wages: TS Lombard

US inflation taking a back seat to wages: TS Lombard

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steve Blitz speaks about the Federal Reserve's approach to raising interest rates.

TS Lombard's Blitz Calls Clarida Fed Pick Positive for Markets

TS Lombard's Blitz Calls Clarida Fed Pick Positive for Markets

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz discusses the markets and weighs in on U.S. President Donald Trump announcing his intention to nominate Richard Clarida as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. Blitz speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

Yuan Has Become a Safe Haven, Says TS Lombard's Brainard

Yuan Has Become a Safe Haven, Says TS Lombard's Brainard

Larry Brainard, TS Lombard chief emerging markets economist, discusses the relationship between the U.S. and China. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton and Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Markets."

TS Lombard: Fair and reciprocal Chinese-US trade is impossible

TS Lombard: Fair and reciprocal Chinese-US trade is impossible

There are more serious issues than tariffs that the U.S. and China will have to discuss in the long term, Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China team at TS Lombard, said.

American worker and consumer lose from tit-for-tat tariffs

American worker and consumer lose from tit-for-tat tariffs

Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard China team chairman, and Steve Orlins, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations president, discuss the retaliatory tariff environment between the U.S. and China.

Auto sector has always been in a 'tight situation,' strategist says

Auto sector has always been in a 'tight situation,' strategist says

Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, discusses the auto sector and potential market risks.

Global markets tune into China-US trade talks

Global markets tune into China-US trade talks

Markets took fright as President Trump aimed $60 billion of annual tariffs at China. TS Lombard’s Jon Harrison explains how we came to this point, and the prospects for an amicable settlement.

TS Lombard's Granville Says Diplomat Expulsions Reflect a Reaction to Circumstantial Evidence

TS Lombard's Granville Says Diplomat Expulsions Reflect a Reaction to Circumstantial Evidence

Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, discusses international relations after over 100 Russian envoys have been expelled globally. He speaks with Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." 

What to watch for during President Trump's meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince

What to watch for during President Trump's meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince

Christopher Granville of TS Lombard says economic development and US shale oil production will likely come up in today's meeting between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in addition to national security issues.

Britain expels 23 Russian diplomats

Britain expels 23 Russian diplomats

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the spy poisoning spat between the U.K. and Russia.

New Fed Chair Powell is a refreshing change to Yellen

New Fed Chair Powell is a refreshing change to Yellen

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, reacts to new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's debut testimony to Congress.

Economist Blitz Says Trump's Presidency Is 'Almost Bipolar'

Economist Blitz Says Trump's Presidency Is 'Almost Bipolar'

Steven Blitz, TS Lombard chief U.S. economist, discusses President Donald Trump's presidency with Ramy Inocencio on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

TS Lombard: Global financing conditions to remain supportive

TS Lombard: Global financing conditions to remain supportive

Global liquidity will remain "substantially abundant" even as central banks tighten their policy, Shweta Singh, director of global macro at TS Lombard, said.

2018 should be another happy year for US stocks, economist says

2018 should be another happy year for US stocks, economist says

The rise of U.S. equities has coincided with increased household net worth and the “rise of the millennials,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said.

Fed will follow the economy, economist says

Fed will follow the economy, economist says

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. economy and government bonds.

TS Lombard: Robust global growth softening China’s slowdown

TS Lombard: Robust global growth softening China’s slowdown

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his economic outlook for the country in 2018.

Our Videos

Why short-term RMB strength will not last

Why short-term RMB strength will not last

Despite a nominal depreciation against the dollar, the renminbi has exceeded last year’s highs vs the basket, says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist. Xi’s approach of claiming the moral high ground by defending globalization and openness leaves little room for speculation about a major devaluation of RMB in the near term to boost exports. We expect RMB CFETS index to move down towards 95-96 before yearend.

Are we at the turning point of Chinese monetary policy?

Are we at the turning point of Chinese monetary policy?

PBoC is moving towards a new interest rate-based monetary policy framework, says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist. Banks will increasingly have to fund themselves in the more competitive deposit markets. We expect the PBoC to slash RRRs by another 150bps before yearend. Recent policy moves also suggest a relaxation of unwanted policy tightness along with a less aggressive stance on financial deleveraging. We believe total credit growth will stop falling in 2018H2.

The US Cycle is only just beginning

The US Cycle is only just beginning

From a calendar perspective, the cycle is certainly old enough. From the perspective of what makes a cycle old – borrowings to finance capital expenditure – the cycle is still relatively young. The current flattening of the yield curve is a sign the economy is finally moving to the middle stages of the business cycle not the end. There is the possibility that by late 2019 the Fed will have pushed rates high enough to begin slowing growth, as it chases rising inflation. If, however, capital spending grows a lot faster than anticipated by the markets and the Fed, this cycle has a lot further to run.

Stop Worrying About An EA Slowdown

Stop Worrying About An EA Slowdown

There are increasing concerns about whether disappointing euro-area data since the start of the year reflect a ‘soft patch’ or instead mark the start of a more serious period of economic weakness. We remain optimistic. We think that the underlying picture is of an economy that continues to grow at a healthy pace and still has significant cyclical upside. Some brief points from our quick take on euro area Q1 GDP data realised this morning –

  • EA expansion looks resilient despite recent moderation
  • Sentiment has stabilised at healthy levels; credit conditions are improving
  • Capex - the key to medium-term growth - is picking up 'even' in Italy

Trade War Escalates With No End Yet In Sight

Trade War Escalates With No End Yet In Sight

The latest tit for tat measures do not amount to a Trade War, but are nonetheless warning shots, says Jon Harrison, Managing Director EM Macro Strategy. Even if there is no full on Trade War, investors should pay attention to supply chain risks. The US objective of preventing Chinese technological development is unrealistic, which leaves the trade deficit as the most likely way for the US to claim victory. A negotiated settlement remains likely, but in the meantime, the US has yet to formulate a coherent negotiating strategy – and its chaotic negotiating style will ensure that markets remain on edge.

Why & When does US/EA Up-Cycle End

Why & When does US/EA Up-Cycle End

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist comments on:

  • ECB has lost control of the euro rate - weak dollar is driving US yields up
  • Strong euro to slow Germany, hurt Italy late in 2019
  • Higher T-note yields and Fed funds rate to slow US below potential

Geopolitical Trade

Geopolitical Trade

For market-moving geopolitical risk, Syria matters less than the “geo” element in the US-China ‘trade war’ saga, says Christopher Granville, Managing Director EMEA and Global Political Research. Tariff tit-for-tat is a sideshow compared to US anxieties about Chinese leadership in advanced technology. This will make expected deals tricky to finalise – and precarious. In short, here is a long-term geopolitically-based volatility driver.

Trading trade troubles

Trading trade troubles

Oliver Brennan, Senior Macro Strategist, discusses the US' maneuvering to reduce its trade deficit with major trading partners, and to weaken the dollar. But if the troubles go too far it could induce a risk-off move.

4 Reasons We Have Not Seen The Peak In Equities

4 Reasons We Have Not Seen The Peak In Equities

Martin Shenfield, Senior Macro Strategist at TS Lombard views the recent market selloff as a healthy correction. There are 4 fundamental reasons for this:

  • Global synchronised growth will be sustained through 2019
  • Global imbalances improving as China and Germany consumption picks up
  • The next recession will be a mild one. There are no conditions in place to create a global crisis
  • Central banks will continue to inflate asset prices bubbles with excess liquidity

The short-term risks to the market as rising real bond yields and currency swap basis. The medium-term risk is a genuine bubble developing which central banks will have to clean up.

Financial Stability Not Inflation to Drive Fed Policy

Financial Stability Not Inflation to Drive Fed Policy

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard on the Fed: Financial Stability Not Inflation to Drive Fed Policy

Tailwind from tax cuts helps Capex lead a strong Growth Year

Tailwind from tax cuts helps Capex lead a strong Growth Year

 

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard talks on US Growth: Tailwind from tax cuts helps Capex lead a strong Growth Year.

What's the story on the dollar this year?

What's the story on the dollar this year?

Hear what our Chief US economist Steve Blitz and our Senior Macro Strategist Ollie Brennan have to say about currency markets, the impact of the Trump tax cuts, and offshore dollar liquidity.

Emerging Markets Outlook for 2018

Emerging Markets Outlook for 2018

Larry Brainard, Chief Emerging Markets Economist, highlights our best calls from 2017 as well as what to expect in 2018.

  • Global: EM year-end risks priced in amid rising optimism
  • China: The Chinese consumer goes upmarket
  • Brazil: Pension reform debate enters critical week
  • India: Modi’s BJP likely to win Gujarat poll after tough fight
  • Russia: Rosneft-Sistema: Sechin’s warpath risks a trail of damage
  • Mexico: Do not rule out a 25 bp hike on 14 December
  • Strategy: Assessing our 2017 Asset Allocation views

2018’s Rosy Scenario – with added Bubbles

2018’s Rosy Scenario – with added Bubbles

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, on TS Lombard's outlook for 2018.

  • 3 major locomotives – US, EA, China – boosting 2018 growth
  • Stocks bullish in 2018, bonds modestly bearish, euro up further
  • 4 hikes by Fed, but policy still stimulative, as are ECB and BoJ
  • Foolish quest for 2% inflation risks stock market bubble/bust
  • Downswing in 2019 or 2020 to discredit central banks
  • Major economies strongest this century in the medium term
  • Chief threat is political, from mid-level job & income losses
  • Monetarist paradigm jeopardised by intensifying anti-elitism

TS Lombard: Combining Economics, Politics and Markets

TS Lombard: Combining Economics, Politics and Markets

TS Lombard was formed in September 2016 following the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources.

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View our summary videos on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with zdl@tslombard.com

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We have a 28 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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