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16 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Watch out for the return of "Rocket Man"

"Having fulfilled its share of the contract, Beijing feels aggrieved, its economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea has not been paid back." says Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard.

15 Nov 2018 - The Irish Independent

ECB's new chapter won't see sharp rate rises anytime soon

Investors are worried that it will "reinforce upward pressure on global yields" according to Shweta Singh, senior global economist at economic consultancy TS Lombard.

15 Nov 2018 - Forbes

Wall Street Second Guesses Fed Resolve To Push Up Interest Rates

Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, says a December rate hike is basically a done deal but "the question is 2019. Here, the outlook is less certain than the dot plot suggests."

15 Nov 2018 - CNBC

World economy is going through an adjustment process

Steven Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses market trends in various economies.

15 Nov 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Fed to Halt Quarterly Hikes Beyond March

The Federal Reserve won’t chase inflation next year, says Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. He told Daybreak Europe’s Markus Karlsson that policymakers will refrain from rate hikes after March to avoid inverting the yield curve. He foresees U.S. growth slowing to 2 percent next year.

12 Nov 2018 - Financial Times

China’s debt mountain ‘to fall’ as share of GDP next year

“The deleveraging continues on the shadow banking side of things, but the credit is still flowing for local government and bank lending,” said Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard, who estimated the year-on-year rate of credit contraction within the shadow banking sector was 6.9 per cent. Mr Green said he expected “deleveraging and financial risk control to remain a key focus for Beijing. We are told Liu He, president Xi’s top economic adviser, is fixated on this, almost to the expense of the economy,” he added.

11 Nov 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Die Normalisierung der Zinsen holt zerstörerische Kräfte zurück – eine Bilanz zum Programm der US-Notenbank

The looming end of global quantitative easing also means that the global liquidity surge is coming to an end. At least for US government bonds, there is an imbalance, as Shweta Singh of TS Lombard points out. The Fed has become a net seller of net buyers, international demand is falling, and the US government is increasing its debt.

09 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Hong Kong falls more than 2 percent, other Asia markets slide after Fed keeps rates unchanged

"The upshot is that there will be more noise and volatility on China," TS Lombard's chief U.S. economist, Steve Blitz, said in a note on Thursday, commenting on the post-election environment. Many Democrats, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, are "China hawks," Blitz said.

09 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Fed legt Zinspause ein und lässt Tür für weitere Erhöhung offen

According to economist Steve Blitz of analyst TS Lombard, the central bank will face a dilemma in the late phase of the upswing in 2019, as inflation picks up and the boom is likely to slow down: "Sometime next year, Powell will have to decide on: prices stay on the heels or react to weaker growth. "

09 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Commentary: Stock market, economy "gloom loop" risks mount

Since 1929, U.S. stocks have suffered an average drawdown of 30 percent on 28 occasions, only 15 of which involved recessions, according to Dario Perkins at TS Lombard. Sometimes, like 1987, steep market declines don’t precede recession, while sometimes, like 2008, they do. There have been peak-to-trough declines of at least 15 percent in 11 calendar years since 1980. Five coincided with recession, six did not, according to Perkins.

08 Nov 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Cicione: Trade War Escalation Biggest Risk After Midterms

An acceleration in the U.S.-China trade war continues to loom large after the midterm elections delivered a split Congress, says Andrea Cicione, Head of Macro Strategy at TS Lombard. He spoke to Daybreak Europe’s Markus Karlsson about how bipartisan consensus over a tough stance on China won’t lead to a change of agenda. He also spoke about the likelihood of the Fed putting rate hikes to a halt early next year as U.S. growth is expected to slowdown.

07 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Fed likely on steady course even as U.S. political landscape shifts

“The U.S. economy is looking more late cycle. You are seeing a slow-motion cleaving of price and activity. Prices are turning up and activity is starting to slow,” TS Lombard chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz said. “Sometime next year Powell will face the choice. Chase prices or react to slower growth.”

07 Nov 2018 - The Telegraph

Trump's reckless economic gamble has failed and the political noose is tightening

Perhaps Speaker Nancy Pelosi will give Trump a partial reprieve of sorts. Common ground exists on spending for roads, bridges, and infrastructure. But the Democrats will keep him on a tight leash before the next election. “They are not going to give him anything to run on, any victories,” said Steve Blitz from TS Lombard.

05 Nov 2018 - The Telegraph

Explosive risks of China’s debt balloon

“As the economy slows, demand is falling and activity is declining, you would expect corporate profits to decline and the pressure on these smaller less politically connected corporates to increase,” says Rory Green at TS Lombard. If debt dramatically increases “it is something to worry about” but the fact that Beijing has “recognised” the risk is an important step, he argues. “That shows the risk is still there but they are aware of it and they are very much on top of what’s going on. There is a risk of policy missteps but the risk of a sudden financial crisis is declining.”

02 Nov 2018 - CNBC

October jobs report on deck

Charles Dumas of TS Lombard weighs in on the big jobs number.

31 Oct 2018 - The Irish Independent

Eurozone growth slows as US powers to new high

"The divergence in economic performance within the euro area is also increasing, limiting the ECB's options," said Shweta Singh, MD of Global Macroeconomics at advisory firm TS Lombard in London. "The central bank will likely downgrade its growth assessment in December and adopt a more dovish end to its quantitative-easing programme than previously expected."

30 Oct 2018 - Financial Times

Russia-Saudi Arabia rapprochement reshapes more than the oil market

But Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, a research consultancy, says that while the relationship proved more enduring than analysts expected, short-term shared goals mask longer-term divergence on both oil and geopolitics. A higher oil price encourages production elsewhere, and giving up market share to other producers, mainly the US shale oil industry. While Saudi Arabia, which needs $70 oil to balance its budget, is happy to make this sacrifice, Moscow breaks even at just $40 a barrel. “Russia has no such need” to give up market share for higher prices, Mr Granville said.

30 Oct 2018 - Expansion

When will the pound 'rally'

"We are waiting for the pound to fall further before buying," says Oliver Brennan, strategist at TS Lombard.

30 Oct 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Bounce Back From Monday Rout

Technology stocks “were priced beyond perfection,” said Ollie Brennan, a senior macro strategist at T.S. Lombard. He said losses in the tech sector represent a healthy adjustment of expectations, even if the size and duration of the recent market decline have been surprising. “The selloff was warranted in the bigger picture,” said Mr. Brennan. “There’s still impetus for equities to rise. But it’s not going to be a 15%-per-year rise.”

30 Oct 2018 - The middle East Eye

Saudi economy may pay high price for Khashoggi killing

“The main implication concerns underlying political risk," such as doubts about the country's stability, says a recent report from London-based financial firm TS Lombard. “The implication affects our view of the investment case for Saudi Arabia making sense only in the long-term.” The report also notes that “chronic government instability would impair” investor returns, and, “this is not a market that can shrug off government turmoil”.

29 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Brazil election a vote against populism

Larry Brainard, chief emerging markets economist at TS Lombard, discusses the result of the Brazilian presidential election.

29 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Economist sees the dollar-yuan hitting 7.7-7.8 by end-2019

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says he sees a "market-driven passive devaluation" of the Chinese yuan, bringing the currency to "about 7,7, 7.8" against the greenback by the end of 2019.

25 Oct 2018 - CNBC

China and Japan are expected to ink 'a lot' of deals as their leaders meet in Beijing

Abe is accompanied by a 500-strong business delegation, which is expected to pitch aggressively in hopes of reaching China's burgeoning middle-class consumers, said Rory Green, an Asia economist at TS Lombard.

25 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Beijing is working hard to prevent US-Japan alliance: Expert

Rory Green, an economist focusing on Asia at TS Lombard, discusses the US-Japan partnership and the future alliances.

25 Oct 2018 - MarketWatch

Pending home sales snap back in September after 4-month losing streak

“Rising real mortgage rates and zero Y/Y growth in real average hourly earnings is not what builds strong housing markets,” wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, after the release of the new-home sales data Thursday.

“While we are upbeat about wages in the coming year, as wage growth is a lagging indicator, 10-year Treasury yields (the price basis for mortgages) are not dropping off anytime soon,” Blitz added. “With a large budget deficit to fund and the Fed far from shifting to an easing trajectory, the only direction for the real cost of money is up.”

24 Oct 2018 - Financial Times

The price of populism

Charles Dumas is a British macroeconomist. He is an unconventional and often penetrating analyst of the global economy, as chief economist at TS Lombard. His latest book "Populism and Economics" helps illuminate aspects of the important, complex and often threatening contemporary developments.

24 Oct 2018 - Het Financieele Dagblad

Beijing is pushing the private sector just a bit too hard

Private entrepreneurs enjoyed considerable freedoms under Deng, recalls Jonathan Fenby from consulting firm TS Lombard. He does not expect Xi's visit to herald the same period of easing. 'Under Xi the role of the party state has been strengthened and we see increased political control over the private sector.'

19 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Economist discusses the possible outcomes if Bolsonaro wins

Larry Brainard of TS Lombard says a win by Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro is "going to lead to a very significant hope rally."

19 Oct 2018 - Barrons

What to Blame as Housing Drags on the Economy

“The easy answer isn’t, however, always the right one (remember the SATs),” quips Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard. Affordability is dropping to where it was around the turn of the century, before the lowering of lending standards set off the never-to-be-repeated housing boom and ensuing financial crisis of a decade ago.

19 Oct 2018 - Reuters

Correlation between euro, Italian bond moves at 5-year high

“There is a view which is not really consensus yet, but there is momentum towards the view that the ECB will probably adopt a more dovish exit than what has been priced, as a result of Italy and also because of expansion not being that strong,” said Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard.

19 Oct 2018 - Barrons

It’s Time to Bet on British Stocks — Even With Brexit Looming

“Cool heads have prevailed, and cool heads will keep prevailing,” says Konstantinos Venetis, a senior economist at London-based financial firm TS Lombard. He says that getting to a point where the U.K. leaves the EU without some form of a trade deal, also known as “hard Brexit,” isn’t likely. “The bar for a hard Brexit is pretty high,” Venetis contends. Instead, he sees a deal before the March deadline. Without one, Britain has much to lose, and so does the EU. “If tomorrow we get a smooth deal, then you would see a jump in sterling to $1.40,” he maintains. At that point, U.K. stocks, especially domestically focused ones, would rise in dollar terms.

18 Oct 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Dumas: Yuan Weakness Determined by US Trade War

The Yuan needs to go down a further 10-15 percent just to accommodate the impact of the tariff war says Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard. Speaking to Daybreak Europe’s Nejra Cehic he argues that there’s nothing justifiable about the tensions in pure trade-terms. It’s a question of who’s number one in the world.

17 Oct 2018 - Reuters

Hurricane Florence, rising mortgage rates hurt U.S. homebuilding

“The flattening of housing construction is essentially in place,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. “Wage growth has begun to improve but not enough to give people the necessary income to carry a mortgage - especially for younger families, many still working out from under student loans.”

16 Oct 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

What the interest rate differential means for investors

According to Andrea Cicione, Head of Investment Strategy of the research house TS Lombard, the difference is "unusually high". "Unusual is not only the height, but that the growth and the inflation difference between Germany and the US can not explain the difference," he says.

16 Oct 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The chart of the day

For all EU Member States considered by TS Lombard, this risk premium is closely related to the average credit rating of the three major agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. The only outlier is Italy, where the spread is significantly higher than the rating justifies.

In order to regain balance in the longer term, either the spread to Germany would have to fall by 2 percentage points or the rating of Italy would have to be reduced by three levels.

The rating agencies, which should be reclassified toward the end of the month, are unlikely to ban Italy from junk (non-investment grade, Ba1 or worse), according to TS Lombard. Too massive would be the market distortions that would trigger such a step.

16 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Talk of a US recession in 2020 is a little premature

TS Lombard analyst Dario Perkins has highlighted the four conditions for a recession to occur: 1) accelerating inflation 2) a squeeze on corporate profits 3) tight monetary policy and 4) macroeconomic imbalances such as asset bubbles.

11 Oct 2018 - MarketWatch

Here’s why oil prices are another worry for stock-market investors

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro strategy at TS Lombard, called rising oil prices one of two “main threats to an already soggier outlook,” along with the prospect of a trade war between the U.S. and other major economies. “Rising oil prices could eventually sap U.S. real incomes, undermining the world’s consumer of first and last resort,” he wrote in a research report.

11 Oct 2018 - CNBC

The global economic impact of $100 oil 'isn't trivial': Here are the likely winners and losers

"Trump's sanctions have raised the stakes, and the market is now driven by fear," Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard, said in a research note published Monday. "But at this juncture we think it makes sense to lean against further oil price strength instead of chasing this rally. And if we see $100 on short notice, it would probably be as good a selling opportunity as in July 2008," he added.

10 Oct 2018 - Zerohedge

‘Ground Zero’ – Will The Dollar Shortage Kick Off The Next Financial Crisis?

“The cost of borrowing dollars, especially offshore dollars, will continue to rise. Putting considerable pressure on global financing conditions.” Says Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “The main threat to global financing is an offshore dollar squeeze.”

09 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Italy's anti-establishment government hopes the rules change in its favor next May

"The European Parliament elections are going to return an unprecedentedly fragmented result, with the big center-right and center-left families smaller than ever, and new parties — from liberals and greens to left and right radicals — doing better than ever," Constantine Fraser, a European political analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email.

08 Oct 2018 - CNBC

China will opt to have a passive devaluation: Analyst

Bo Zhuang, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the trade war impact on Chinese markets.

03 Oct 2018 - Wall Street Journal

The False Sense of Security Behind Corporate Debt

Debt has been cheap and plentiful, but companies may also have been encouraged to borrow by high and rising stock prices. Steven Blitz, U.S. economist at TS Lombard, thinks public companies and their lenders have gotten too comfortable with high equity valuations when thinking about debt levels, rather than focusing on income or cash on hand. This is a bit like mortgage lenders relying on home values rather than households’ ability to repay, even if public corporate equity can’t literally be used as collateral in the way homes are.

03 Oct 2018 - Reuters

"Quitaly" gauges flicker but don't flash as Italy heads for budget clash

“We think the key worry for markets right now is not an ‘Italexit’, but the impact from a wider fiscal deficit on Italy’s debt sustainability, especially given the backdrop of a fast-approaching end to ECB QE,” said TS Lombard senior economist Shweta Singh.

02 Oct 2018 - South China Morning Post

After the trade war, US-China relations will not be the same again

In reality, neither Beijing nor Washington may think a return to the trade relationship of the recent past is possible or desirable. “China’s leaders have been forced into a fundamental reassessment of the country’s development strategy,” Larry Brainard, chief emerging markets economist at investment research firm TS Lombard, wrote last month.

01 Oct 2018 - Zerohedge

Emerging Markets Slammed By Soaring Oil Prices

Emerging markets already have a lot of problems as it is, and when you throw an oil price spike to the mix, that creates another big risk factor,” said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets strategy at TS Lombard

28 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Emerging Markets’ Double Whammy: Expensive Oil, Weak Currencies

"Emerging markets already have a lot of problems as it is, and when you throw an oil price spike to the mix, that creates another big risk factor," said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets strategy at TS Lombard.

28 Sep 2018 - Reuters

Commentary: Risks of global dollar shortage are rising

“The cost of borrowing dollars, especially offshore dollars, will continue to rise, putting considerable pressure on global financing conditions,” says Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “The main threat to global financing is an offshore dollar squeeze.”

28 Sep 2018 - Barrons

Housing’s Hard Lesson for Stocks

In actuality, the greatest beneficiary of ultraeasy monetary policies, which have been the central aspect of the recovery, has been the stock market. In the second quarter, equities surpassed real estate as the biggest source of households’ wealth for the first time since the dot-com boom late in the last century, according to Fed data parsed by Steve Blitz, TS Lombard’s chief US economist. That’s a reversal from the last decade during the housing bubble and during the 1970s, ’80s, and ’90s, when the notion that home prices only went up became seared into America’s consciousness.

27 Sep 2018 - Financial Times

How social media exposed the fractures in Brazilian democracy

Increased support in the polls for Mr Haddad would “exacerbate market jitters, especially because the PT’s current economic platform denies the need for reform”, said research group TS Lombard in a note.

26 Sep 2018 - The Spectator

How China sees the trade war

Beijing will seek friends in defence of globalisation and the other mantras Xi likes to unroll, says Jonathan Fenby.

26 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

An Economic Cold War Looms Between the U.S. and China

Yet over time, China could overcome those disadvantages. It "has all the necessary prerequisites to make an Asian-based trading bloc work without the U.S.: a large domestic market, political support for open markets and manufacturing expertise," writes Larry Brainard of TS Lombard, an investment advisory. China already does more trade in manufactured and intermediate goods with the European Union than the U.S., and twice as much with the rest of Asia, he notes.

25 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Brexit and big global market risks

Lawrence Brainard of TS Lombard breaks down the global markets.

25 Sep 2018 - The Street

Fed Watchers See 'Light at End of Tunnel' After Rate Hike This Week

"It's closing in on a level of policy rates that are reflective of current economic activity," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecaster TS Lombard.

24 Sep 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

TS Lombard Sees China Replacing U.S. as Leading Trade Power

Larry Brainard, chief emerging-markets economist at TS Lombard, and Tony Crescenzi, market strategist and portfolio manager at Pimco, discusses the outlook for emerging markets and China's growing force as a trading power.

24 Sep 2018 - Barrons

Why Markets Should Expect a Long, Ugly U.S.-China Trade War

The U.S.-China economic conflict will be long and ugly “with little chance of a deal anytime soon,” TS Lombard economists Larry Brainard and Charles Dumas write in a note to clients. While China was prepared in late May for talks on trade, that has changed given the events of the subsequent months.

23 Sep 2018 - Financial Times

Dollar’s fortunes rest on the US Federal Reserve’s tone

“The new horizon for Italy’s political parties is May 2019 and the European Parliament elections,” said Davide Oneglia, an economist at TS Lombard. “Expect limited stimulus [in the budget] and high volatility as Lega and M5S go back to full electoral campaign mode.”

23 Sep 2018 - Zerohedge

Bank Of America Calls It: "The Peak In Home Sales Has Been Reached; Housing No Longer A Tailwind"

According to TS Lombard, the current period is now only the third time in US history - after 1968 and 1999 - in which equities have made up a larger percentage of net worth than real estate. While this may be good news for holders of stocks, it may not last: as TS Lombard observes, sharp bear markets followed shortly after 1968 and even sooner after 1999. And with housing peaking - if BofA is correct - share prices remain the only driver behind continued economic growth, prompting TSL to conclude that "the US economy can not afford a bear market."

20 Sep 2018 - Financial Times

Rivals seek to profit from US-China trade war

The long-term impact of the tariffs is still far from settled. Jon Harrison, an economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, notes that when the EU and US imposed penalties on Chinese exports of solar panels in 2012, Chinese companies swiftly moved production to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Similar relocation this time round could therefore benefit south-east Asian economies.

20 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Household Net Worth Neared $107 Trillion in Second Quarter

"Households have a lot of net worth," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, adding however that "hasn’t generated an increase in leveraged spending" compared with earlier periods in which net worth was rising sharply.

20 Sep 2018 - The Street

Trump's Trade War May Test Investors More Than China's Economy

TS Lombard, an economic forecaster, says China is "feeling aggrieved" over the Trump administration's demands, since the assault represents a threat to the ruling Communist Party's power. "As a result, Beijing has also shifted to a harder line and is likely to shun new talks, blaming the U.S. for a lack of sincerity to engage in negotiations," according to a report this week from the London-based firm.

18 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Why timing is essential when it comes to emerging markets

Brazil is another EM to keep an eye on. The country is running a fiscal deficit — although mostly domestically funded — that is twice the size of Argentina's; it has now run five consecutive primary deficits. With growth in Brazil having stalled in the run-up to October's elections, TS Lombard analysts Elisabeth Johnson and Larry Brainard have sounded the alarm. "Unless the new administration moves quickly to pass a credible fiscal programme, Brazil runs the risk of following down the same path as Argentina and Turkey," they said.

18 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Brazilian stocks could get more volatile as an 'unpredictable' election approaches

"We still don't know what the outcome will be," said Cristobal Arias, Latin America economist at TS Lombard. "But regardless of who wins, the country faces major economic problems." Economic reforms are needed for Brazil to move forward.

16 Sep 2018 - Australian Financial Review

Elections threaten Wall Street's teflon Trump trade

TS Lombard chief US economist Steve Blitz believes the Democrats are "likely to eke out a majority" in the House of Representatives. "Whenever US presidents lose Congress, their focus shifts to global affairs, where the constitution gives them much more latitude to take the initiative," Mr Blitz said. "Trump will do the same."

13 Sep 2018 - The Street

U.S. Inflation Slows in August Even as Workers' Wages Accelerate

"One month is not a trend, but it plays to the Fed's view that the runup in inflation in the earlier part of this year is going to reverse itself," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecasting firm TS Lombard. 

13 Sep 2018 - The Telegraph

Future of Europe: Can the EU save a lost generation left fighting for its life in an economic maelstrom?

One advocate of extreme measures is Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard and author of Populism and Economics. Mr Dumas believes that many nations, particularly Italy, joined the single currency far too soon. This undermined their competitiveness and pressed home the advantage of strong players such as Germany. As a result, Germany has effectively operated under a much lower exchange rate than it otherwise would have. 

13 Sep 2018 - Evening Standard

Why Trump will be sorry if China lets its currency sink

TS Lombard economist Charles Dumas has an enviable track record. This makes it rather upsetting when his latest prediction is definitely not for the faint-hearted.

12 Sep 2018 - FT Alphaville

The EM rout is not made in America

Displacing the US, China has become the main export destination for many emerging market countries — Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia and the Philippines. The relationship has become so pronounced that China's import growth correlates closely with the export growth for many emerging economies. While this does not imply causation, TS Lombard points out that it illustrates just how synchronised global trade has become with Asia's biggest buyer.

12 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Financial crisis made banks less risk taking, chief economist

But the culture on Wall Street is always going to be same, says Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard.

12 Sep 2018 - The Telegraph

Jean-Claude Juncker calls on EU to champion euro as a global currency

For the euro to take on the greenback as a more powerful global force, there would have to be considerable efforts to address imbalances generated by member states' public debt and Germany's large surplus, according to Charles Dumas of T S Lombard.  "Something is going to have to be done about the eurozone surplus and the imbalances within Europe that create that surplus. They are pursuing an Italian exchange rate in an economy in which Italy is a very small proportion of the total," he said.

12 Sep 2018 - CNBC

The biggest red flag for the next recession? Corporate debt to cash ratios, top economist says

Ten years on from the crash of Lehman Brothers that heralded the Great Recession, market watchers are looking for clues as to where the root of the next crisis might lie. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, sees a giant red flag in corporations' debt versus their means to pay that debt off. "The real biggest problem lies, if I'm looking at the U.S., I look at debt-to-cash ratios, and I take out the top ten companies," Blitz told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe on Wednesday, noting his exclusion of highly capitalized companies like major tech and pharmaceutical firms who are well-stocked to service their debts. "Debt to cash is very very high, but debt equity is very very low. What that tells me is corporations are borrowing against their net worth, as opposed to borrowing against cash flow and income, which in effect is the same thing households were doing in 2004, 2005 and 2006."

11 Sep 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The chart of the day

Since the peak in late 2017, price-to-earnings ratios have tended to decline - a trend that, according to TS Lombard analysts, is likely to be attributed to US government bond yields, which are likely to rise significantly at the short end, with some delay have started.

11 Sep 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

The Big Unknown for EM

The trade stand-off remains the biggest challenge for emerging markets, says Jon Harrison, managing director of EM at TS Lombard. He told Daybreak Europe’s Nejra Cehic and Markus Karlsson why he thinks that India is a relative safe haven.

08 Sep 2018 - MarketWatch

The new fear for stock investors is an emerging-market meltdown

Jon Harrison, managing director of macro strategy at TS Lombard wrote that he had a “strong negative view” on emerging markets, citing the contagion risks of “crisis upon crisis.”

08 Sep 2018 - The Telegraph

Emerging markets currency crisis: how contagious is the situation in Argentina?

“If we had a global environment that was very pro-risk, emerging markets were doing well, and there was ample global liquidity, then investors may be able to forgive Argentina and allow it time to make the required fiscal adjustment,” says Jon Harrison, managing director, macro strategy, at TS Lombard. “That was the case over the past few years but this year that has changed.”

07 Sep 2018 - The Street

U.S. Adds 201,000 Jobs in August, and Workers' Wages Accelerate

"The economy's not slowing down," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard. "It certainly keeps consumption strong in the third quarter and into the fourth." 

07 Sep 2018 - The Street

Stocks Sink as Trump May Slap China With $267 Billion More in Tariffs

"The economy's not slowing down," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard. "It certainly keeps consumption strong in the third quarter and into the fourth." The report is likely to buttress the Federal Reserve's case for increasing interest rates by a quarter point later this month, and again in December, to prevent a surge in inflation, Blitz said.

06 Sep 2018 - CNBC

China's potential weapons against US tariffs could backfire on its growth — here's why

One option, some economists say, is a move by China's central bank to further devalue its currency, making its exports cheaper and more attractive and thereby offsetting the costs of the tariffs. The yuan has depreciated around 8 percent against the dollar since April, and economists Bo Zhuang and Rory Green of TS Lombard believe that the 25 percent levies placed on the bulk of Chinese goods "would damage China's trade enough to provoke over the next six months or so a further 15 percent depreciation."

06 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Brazilian markets could quickly spiral into crisis mode amid 'devilish' election choice

"The evident economic difficulties that have hit Turkey and Argentina this year have so far been viewed by markets as largely confined to those two countries — with limited spill-over potential to other emerging markets," Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging-market macro strategy at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email. "What has changed is Brazil. The likelihood of a market friendly outcome in the Brazilian election first-round has receded (and that) has the potential to shock markets out of their complacency," he added.

06 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Nasdaq falls for a third day as Amazon, Apple and chip stocks get hit

President Donald Trump's "trade tactics are more likely to slow the economy, certainly in the near term, because of damage done to capital spending plans," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. "The seemingly random aspect of his tactics, including the uncertainty of how long tariffs will be in place and their direct impact, will cause firms to pause before starting up capital projects – just when investment spending looked set to surge, aided by Trump's tax cuts."

06 Sep 2018 - Business Insider

A trusty recession signal is telling the Fed 'we're about where we need to be' on interest rates

"Talk of the flatter yield curve presaging recession continues to run rampant among the chattering classes,” Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a research note. And it’s not just the more closely-watched yield gaps, like the spread between 10- and two-year notes. What counts is not whether the curve is flat but whether it’s negative, and the negative curve that counts most is the spread between the yield on two-year Treasury notes and the federal funds rate, Blitz writes. "We have long made the point that the shape of the curve is not a talisman. It works because when short-term money earns more than lending, the flow of loanable funds moves away from credit."

05 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Global Stocks Fall Amid Trade Uncertainty

“If the administration goes ahead with the threats that it’s made … then we can see really major risks for risk assets like the stock market over the balance of the year,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. More tariffs on China could trigger further falls in the Chinese currency and add to pressure on emerging markets while pushing up the dollar, he said.

05 Sep 2018 - Barrons

Global Stocks Are Getting Hammered Amid Trade Fears

“If the administration goes ahead with the threats that it’s made...then we can see really major risks for risk assets like the stock market over the balance of the year,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. More tariffs on China could trigger further falls in the Chinese currency and add to pressure on emerging markets while pushing up the dollar, he said.

05 Sep 2018 - Barrons

How the Next Global Economic Crisis Could Start

Developing countries are facing a perfect storm, according to Larry Brainard, TS Lombard's chief EM economist. In the research firm's September message to clients, he warned would-be bargain hunters that emerging markets have not neared a bottom.  While problems in Turkey and Argentina haven't been "systemic," Brainard wrote that a combination with several other crises now brewing could lead to a broader problem.

Jon Harrison, managing director of EM macro strategy at TS Lombard, wrote in a separate note that India and Mexico stand out as relative safe havens among developing countries. The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) is down 4% so far this year, half as much as the broader EM index, while the iShares Mexico ETF (EWW) has inched up 0.44%.

05 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Emerging markets rout deepens amid fears over Argentina and Turkey

"For several months our view has been that it is the cumulative impact that matters when assessing the effect on EM economies and markets of tighter global liquidity conditions, the escalating trade conflict between the US and China, and crises in Argentina and Turkey," Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging-market macro strategy at TS Lombard, said in a note Wednesday. "These drivers are likely to intensify in the coming months."

05 Sep 2018 - Axios

White House claims it solved the wage growth puzzle

"While you can say the motivation [for the measurement adjustment] was political, what comes out at the other end is a legitimate issues regarding mis-measurements," said Steve Blitz, an economist at TS Lombarda research firm.

03 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Argentina investment depends on government fiscal plan: Expert

Jon Harrison, managing director, EM at TS Lombard, discusses investment in Argentina and other emerging markets.

03 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Italian Politics Keep Global Investors on Edge

The stakes are high: Italy is the eurozone’s biggest government borrower. While foreigners and households sold Italian debt this summer, Italian banks were buying it at the fastest pace since the eurozone debt crisis. That means any losses in Italian bonds puts more pressure on the banks’ already modest capital ratios, driving them to buy even more debt, according to research firm TS Lombard.

31 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Here’s why emerging-markets turmoil will continue to keep traders on their toes

Turkey’s euro-denominated borrowings means it’s collapse could portend trouble for EU members with financial linkages to Ankara. European banks like Spanish BBVA are on the hook via Turkish subsidiaries. If they’re forced to write off their loans to Turkish firms, then their capital buffers could take a sharp hit, according to analysts from TS Lombard.

30 Aug 2018 - Barrons

Argentine Peso Collapse Doesn’t Harm View on Emerging Markets

The odds of a recession in Argentina later this year are rising while Turkey is headed for an inevitable “substantial deterioration” in its creditworthiness and the country's economy is set for a hard landing, according to a note from Jon Harrison, part of the emerging-markets team at TS Lombard.

29 Aug 2018 - The Telegraph

G20 trade falls for first time since 2016 as tensions hit confidence

This has a wider impact on global trade which is hitting the eurozone particularly hard, according to economist Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “Growing protectionism is taking a toll on global demand. The eurozone remains one of the regions most vulnerable to trade wars,” she said. “President Trump’s tariffs have been largely directed towards China so far. But the eurozone’s supply chain linkages with China and the rest of the world are weighing on its exports.”

27 Aug 2018 - Middle East Eye

ANALYSIS: The uncertainty around Aramco deal is a sign of Saudi dysfunction

“They proposed an IPO at the worst possible time to sell an oil company, and then called it off at quite a good time to sell an oil company,” said Marcus Chenevix, analyst for EMEA and global political research at financial firm TS Lombard in London. “Nothing more clearly illustrates the way that this project was never a normal IPO.”

27 Aug 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Fear of a currency war

For Charles Dumas, economist at the research house TS Lombard, an escalation of the trade to currency war would be a "probable scenario". The US could then continue to escalate against China with tariffs - but would only allow the dollar to appreciate further. Investors would have to adjust to turbulence: A stronger dollar would weigh on stocks and probably on bonds.

24 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Powell says Fed needs to nix old-time thinking in an age of economic uncertainty

“Powell is not worrying about whether inflation is coming or not coming or whether unemployment is too high or too low,” said chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz at TS Lombard. “He’s worries about whether money is too cheap or too expensive” for borrowers on Wall Street and Main Street.

24 Aug 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Fed must reconsider balance sheet reduction

Steven Blitz, US economist at the research house TS Lombard, also expects an adjustment of the program. Things went well for him until President Donald Trump implemented his fiscal policy and "exploded" the supply of government bonds due to heightened debt. Thus, "the abundance of safe papers became an abundance". According to Blitz, this can be seen by the difference between the interest that can be achieved in the market with the lending of securities and the simultaneous repurchase guarantee (repo rate) and the interest on the surplus reserves that are parked at the Fed (IOER). Since the Fed balance sheet has decreased, the difference is positive.

23 Aug 2018 - CNBC

US-China 'tit for tat' will continue for the foreseeable future

Both parties convinced themselves they will not lose out too much in this trade fight, says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

23 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Beijing retaliates as new US tariffs kick in on $16 billion of Chinese goods

Markets should expect bilateral tit-for-tat trade actions to continue for the foreseeable future as both the U.S. and China have managed to convince themselves that they wouldn't "lose out in this trade war too much," said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at investment research firm, TS Lombard. Beijing will allow the Chinese yuan to "passively devalue" in order to cope with the impact of the U.S. tariffs although authorities will likely blame any decline in the currency on the markets, Zhuang said. "One way or the other, they have to do something. Otherwise the Chinese economy is going to tumble," Zhuang added.

22 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

US and Europe cross economic turning point

Economists at TS Lombard note that the US economy “has yet to find reason for output to push above its 2014 highs, at least in the goods sector, and housing is beginning to soften”, and add that “Trump’s trade tactics should slow rather than accelerate activity, but they have yet to show through meaningfully in the macro data”.

22 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

New Russian Sanctions to Have 'Zero Economic Effect,' Granville Says

Christopher Granville, director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the potential economic impact of new U.S. sanctions being imposed against Russia. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

21 Aug 2018 - Het Financieele Dagblad

China and America talk further, but does it also yield something?

During a recent dinner with foreign diplomats, Chinese President Xi Jinping suggested that China would win the US trade war because it is simply a one-party state. "Giving up would undermine the power structure and long-term focus of leadership," says Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard. His conclusion: 'China will persevere.'

21 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg

Turkish Banks' European Deposits Get Regulators' Scrutiny

“The risk is probably not systemic for the European banking system in itself,” said Jon Harrison, an analyst at TS Lombard in London. “The bar could be lower for someone in Germany to take their money out of a Turkish bank and deposit in a German bank, than for someone in Turkey to remove their funds from Turkish banks -– raising the risk of a bank run.” Though that point hasn’t come yet, that could be a way the situation could deteriorate, he said.

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Countries under economic attack from the US are bound to adapt

This type of economic sanctions, using the power of U.S. treasury in global finance to try to throttle other economies is a powerful card to play, but with diminishing effects, says Christopher Granville, managing director, global political research at TS Lombard.

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Greece ends nearly 10 years of bailouts — this is what it means

However, some analysts argue that this is more a "symbolic" moment and there is plenty yet to do to improve the Greek economy. "Both the EU and the Greeks will try to put a positive spin on the end of the bailout, but there is little to celebrate," Constantine Fraser, European analyst at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC via email.

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Experts are predicting a recession for Turkey next year. Here's what you need to know

It's "common sense" to assume the crisis will calm, said Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard in London. "If you look at Erdogan's track record, he does tend to back down in the end, although it takes time," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Monday. But even the resolution of political tensions with the U.S. wouldn't solve Turkey's problem on its own from an investor point of view, "though of course it would help on the margin," Granville added. "Some political resolution is likely but that's not very helpful advice for investors," he said. "Because that takes a long time, which Turkish markets don't have."

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Germany is unlikely to give a financial lifeline to Turkey, analysts say

Turkey has recovered from previous bouts of volatility brought on by political and economic instability and analysts tend to think it can do so again, but they noted that resolving its dispute with the U.S. was crucial. Christopher Granville, managing director global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Monday that "there's a huge amount at stake for Turkey in its basic alignment with the U.S. and these things are not dissolvable overnight." Still, he noted that even solving the dispute with the U.S. quickly would not "solve the Turkish problem from investors' point of view."

20 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Trump May Create Problem for Powell, TS Lombard's Blitz Says

President Donald Trump said he expected Jerome Powell to be a cheap-money Fed chairman and lamented to Republican donors at a fundraiser his nominee instead had raised interest rates, according to three people present. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: Bloomberg)

17 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Italian government's response to Genoa bridge collapse

It might end up, in a long run, undermining the confidence of investors in Italian institutions, says Davide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard.

17 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Italy blame game over bridge collapse will hurt investor sentiment for a long time, economist says

"The responsibilities still have to be determined by the judiciary, (but) the most striking thing of this story is mostly the initial reaction of the government after the disaster," Davide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard, said. "The fact they have immediately taken Atlantia and investor as a scapegoat, or they are trying to bring in the European Commission, which is their usual target, might end up in the long run undermining the confidence of investors on Italian institutions," Oneglia told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "If this proceeds, it has long lasting effects on investor sentiment," he said.

16 Aug 2018 - Citywire

Turkey tips emerging markets into bear territory

'Limited direct contagion from Turkey is little comfort,' said Jon Harrison, strategist at TS Lombard. 'The collapse of Turkish markets raises investors' fears even when there are few direct linkages, and could certainly be the one crisis too many that prompts some to take a decision to scale back exposure — coming at a time when broad-based emerging markets risk-off is already taking shape.'

16 Aug 2018 - The Telegraph

Trade conflict could trigger currency war, economists fear

The tariffs will open up currencies as a second front in the conflict between the world’s biggest economies, risking a 15pc depreciation in the Chinese Yuan, according to an analysis from TS Lombard. Bo Zhuang, of TS Lombard, said: “A decision by Trump to double down on his tariff tactics would have adverse effects on inflation and global markets. This possibility is the main reason why we maintain a strong negative call on the environment for global risk.”

16 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

What are the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s trade wars?

Jon Harrison, an economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said trade worries, added to the effects of the strong dollar and rising US interest rates, were fuelling a sell-off in emerging market debt.

15 Aug 2018 - Reuters

Turkey tantrum? Investors fret over contagion from lira plunge

“Spanish lenders are most vulnerable to the worsening currency crisis, followed by French and Italian banks,” noted Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “With Europe’s large exposure to Turkey through banking sector flows, investors are increasingly worried about the fallout as the crisis unfolds.”

15 Aug 2018 - The New York Times

Why Turkey’s Crisis Feels Familiar for Emerging Markets: It’s the Debt

Shweta Singh, an analyst at TS Lombard, a London research house, points out that the European banks with the most significant exposure to Turkey — BBVA, BNP Paribas and UniCredit — are among the weakest in the eurozone in terms of their equity cushions.

15 Aug 2018 - The Street

China Set to 'Weaponize' Yuan to Fight Trump's Trade War: Report

According to a new report, China now appears willing to undertake a major currency devaluation - similar to the policy changes that roiled global markets in late 2015 and early 2016. The move by the Chinese government would help to offset the effect of the Trump administration's enacted or threatened tariffs on some $250 billion of imports from the country, writes the economic forecaster TS Lombard.

14 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Turkey is investigating hundreds of social media accounts bad-mouthing the lira

"Now that economics is political, it is no surprise that they are seeking clamp down on inconvenient discussion," Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC of the government's campaign. The move, he said, is indicative of the state's attempt to control all political discussion online.

There is a more significant message here though, Chenevix added. "In a currency crisis it is in the end ordinary people who do the heavy lifting. A serious run on a currency is not driven by foreign speculators but by ordinary people going to their local FX bureau and buying some dollars. The government knows this, and is trying very hard to stop it."

14 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Contagion from Turkish currency collapse to European banks is ‘overblown'

“If BBVA is forced to deleverage, inflicting wider damage on the Spanish economy and the banking system, the repercussions could be quite severe due to the complex financial linkages among European banks,” said Shweta Singh and Davide Oneglia, economists at TS Lombard, in a Monday note.

12 Aug 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Optimism on European Growth Reverses as Headwinds Mount

"The euro growth cycle is in a phase when it needs more (capital expenditures)," said Shweta Singh, a managing director at economics consultancy TS Lombard. "That's why the impact of the trade wars on sentiment is so worrying."

08 Aug 2018 - The Telegraph

Dispute between Canada and Saudi Arabia escalates amid asset sell off

Marcus Chenevix of TS Lombard said: “It is a damaging and stupid dispute, it is unclear why they [Saudi] couldn’t have taken more private action.” The Kingdom could quit its arms deals, worth half a billion dollars each year for Canada, as a means of further escalation, according to Mr Chenevix. Based on the track record of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the 32-year-old de facto ruler of the Kingdom, the row is unlikely to be swiftly resolved. “MBS has not finished any dispute that he has started,” Mr Chenevix added.

07 Aug 2018 - South China Morning Post

Will the trade war force China to fold? The US’ confidence may be misguided

Investment research firm TS Lombard feels China is holding a strong set of cards, publishing “Trade War: Why China Won’t Surrender” on August 2. TS Lombard’s China Watch team feels that “the impact of Trump’s trade war on [China’s economic] growth will be manageable”, with Beijing having “rolled out a series of limited measures to sustain domestic growth” and with its currency policy aimed partly at “offsetting the impact of US tariffs on [Chinese] exporters”. Indeed, If Trump imposes additional tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from China, then “further yuan depreciation is likely”, TS Lombard feels.

07 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg

Turkey’s Cratering Markets Stoke Speculation Over Extreme Measures

“It’s going to be a shock of one type or another: either a policy shock or a macro shock or some combination of the two,” said Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard in London. “But the way to sugar that pill,” he said, would be a “political accommodation with the West. That would make the pain much less."

07 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Iranian government does not have a room to go to the negotiating table

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. sanctions on Iran and what it means for the future of Iranian oil.

07 Aug 2018 - CNBC

20% interest rates, crashing capital markets: Trump's sanctions causing turmoil in Turkey

"This is a shot across the bow," said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at TS Lombard. "Now, I think the U.S. will give them time to respond. It's not like the U.S. sees this as a pressing political matter, it just can't seem to be backing down to these hostage tactics."

07 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Turkey Faces a Policy or Economic Shock, Says Granville

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses Turkey's economic issues related to U.S. sanctions. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." 

07 Aug 2018 - The Weekly Standard

Meet the Winners of the Trade War

But not everybody’s suffering. In a recent research note, economists from market-research firm TS Lombard observed that “global trading firms will easily skirt China’s soybean tariffs and leave U.S. growers the primary losers” and that “the big winners will be Brazilian farmers and the big grain companies.” That’s because China consumes 60 percent of the soybeans produced around the world. The country still has a strong need for soybeans, which are crushed to feed its huge livestock industry. With the tariffs rendering U.S. soybean prices suddenly uncompetitive, China is turning elsewhere—especially to Brazil.

06 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Beijing is more worried about domestic issues than its trade war with Washington, research firm says

The U.S.-China trade war is not Beijing's top priority, investment research firm TS Lombard said. Rather, China is likely focused on more domestic concerns, such as stabilizing its economy and maintaining the power structure, said Jonathan Fenby, the firm's China research chairman. TS Lombard sees growth in China coming in at a rate of 6.3 percent in the second half of the year, for an average full-year growth of 6.5 percent.

03 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

China’s controversies create cracks in Xi’s façade

“There isn’t any organised movement against Xi or any real threat for him, in my view” says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist for TS Lombard. In private, however, more Chinese officials and intellectuals are expressing doubts about his handling of relations with the US. Mr Zhuang says that among the Chinese bureaucracy’s rank and file, “more people are now questioning whether it was right for Xi to go against the US so openly”. 

03 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

US sanctions proposals shrugged off in Russia

Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, an investment research firm, said although the new measures came close to “a worst possible list” for Russia, “the Treasury has already concluded that they don’t want to sanction sovereign debt”. “Investors have made some adjustments since the turmoil in Helsinki, so a large amount of worry is already priced in at this stage,” said Mr Granville. “A further negative correction would only follow if there is evidence that there is unanimous momentum to pass this bill, like we saw with CAATSA.”

03 Aug 2018 - CNBC

A summer stock sell-off is a ‘risk too big to ignore,’ researchers warn

Economic fundamentals have greatly improved since quantitative easing was deployed following the financial crisis. But with fiscal conditions tightening, dollar rates climbing, the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and the European Central Bank ready to taper its asset purchases, "withdrawal symptoms will be inevitable," wrote Andrea Cicione, managing director of macro strategy at TS Lombard. Trade uncertainty will only compound this, creating the uncertainty that investors don't like.

03 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg Markets: Steve Blitz on July Jobs Report (Audio)

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, on July jobs report. He speaks on Bloomberg Markets with Pimm Fox and Bob Ivry.

03 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Who’s cashing in on roaring economy? By the size of paychecks, not most workers

“What has yet to come around consistently is wage growth,” noted chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz of TS Lombard. “It has slowed of late, even as hiring has picked up.”

03 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

The Benalla affair has brought Emmanuel Macron to earth

"His promise of a more moral and open system of governing is looking shaky", says Jonathan Fenby.

03 Aug 2018 - Reuters

FOREX-Chinese central bank move sends yuan surging, hits dollar across the board

“What we have seen is quite a big depreciation [in the yuan] so I think, as we’ve seen in the past, when there are big moves the Chinese authorities are very anxious to ensure the market doesn’t see the renminbi as a one-way bet,” said Jon Harrison, head of emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard.

02 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Trump’s Turkey sanctions are all about the midterms — but will end up helping Russia

"Normally, Turkey might be able to shrug off this kind of story; however, right now the Turkish economy is already in the terminal stages of a descent into crisis," said Marcus Chenevix, Middle East analyst at TS Lombard. "To say the least, things are fragile right now."

02 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Uncertainties abound as emerging markets creep back into favour

The outlook for trade in EMs does not look as positive as it once did. Jon Harrison at TS Lombard, a research group, has noticed a recent reversal in the rising share of global trade accounted for by EM countries. “While there was a small uptick in the EM share in May, this did not reverse the sharper decline in the preceding two months,” Mr Harrison said. “EM economies are no longer taking an ever greater share of world trade.”

02 Aug 2018 - BBC

A political spat between Turkey and the US has led to sanctions on two Turkish ministers.

A political spat between Turkey and the US has led to sanctions on two Turkish ministers. Marcus Chenevix, Middle East analyst at TS Lombard, explains the effect the row is having on Turkey's currency. 

02 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Trump zeroes in on China after trade truce with Europe

“Trump is unpredictable in a way,” said Bo Zhuang from TS Lombard, a consultancy. “But he’s also predictable. He’s doing everything he promised Americans he would do during the campaign.”

01 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Stocks are priced for perfection but are vulnerable to shocks

TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz pointed out that there is a stark divergence between US after-tax profits, which have evidently risen this year, and pre-tax profits, which are falling.

01 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Wait and FOMC

At the margin, it is fair to say that a fourth rate rise this year grew a little more likely, but that is about it. To support this notion, growth is now described as "strong" rather than solid. As ever, every choice of word in an FOMC communique must be examined minutely, and Steven Blitz of TS Lombard draws the following conclusion: "If you upgrade your description of the economy six weeks after having raised the funds rate 25 basis points and still call policy rates “accommodative”, there is no place else to go but to raise rates another 25 in September and again in December, assuming the economy is still rolling along. One could ask why the Fed didn’t just raise rates in August, based on stronger growth and inflation assessments. The answer is simply habit. Shifting to a faster calendar pace would unsettle markets, especially after a meeting without a press conference." 

31 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Dear Prudence

TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz makes clear, there is a stark divergence between after-tax profits, which are rising, and pre-tax profits, which are falling. Generally, net investment by businesses, which stimulates the economy, is led by profits. But it is unclear as yet what impact the rise in post-tax profits will have:

31 Jul 2018 - The Street

Fed Poised to Keep Rates on Hold, Awaiting Signs on Trump Economy

Economists at forecasting firm TS Lombard argue that a key driver of growth will be spending by businesses on new equipment, which leads to higher employee productivity and output. And so far, there are few signs that companies are rushing to invest their tax savings in new equipment. TS Lombard analyzed railcar loadings of cargo that typically rises and falls with the economic cycle - things like chemicals, metal, nonmetallic and forest products. Such loadings have narrowed to prior-year levels. "We suspect that no great expenditure boost is in the offing," the economists wrote.

31 Jul 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Oil Extends Tuesday Drop on Increase in US Inventories

TS Lombard senior economist Konstantinos Venetis said Chinese oil purchases are a big question for markets as it's a significant importer of U.S. crude. Trade friction between the two countries remain high, with not even an agreement yet in place for officials from both to meet.

27 Jul 2018 - CNBC

India stocks hit record highs as experts consider their 'safe haven' potential

It is thanks to a combination of factors that India is a "relative safe haven for equity investors," according to Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets macro strategy at research firm TS Lombard. "India is a relatively closed economy," he explained to CNBC, adding that the country was "less involved in regional supply chains than some of the more high-tech Asian economies." The World Bank puts India's export figure for 2017 at 18.9 percent, meaning that it is more cushioned from fluctuations in international trade flows than, say, China, South Korea and Vietnam.

26 Jul 2018 - CNBC

ECB keeps rates unchanged with its massive stimulus program set to end this year

Analysts at research provider TS Lombard said the ECB will "deliberately talk down the prospect of rate hikes until QE (quantitative easing) is well out of the way." "And looking that far out (mid 2019), Europe's main central bank becomes hostage to wider global developments well beyond its control," analysts said in a note Thursday, citing higher rates in the United States and trade wars as two potential examples. "The ECB might get round to raising rates in 2019, but only if this global cycle keeps defying the gloomy consensus," they added.

25 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Executive pay rows show that governance matters

As Charles Dumas, author of a compelling new book on the economics of populism argues, it is people’s perception of their relative position rather than actual financial loss that matters — not least perceptions of inequitable sharing of the pain in the 2007-8 financial crisis, where bankers continued to draw bonuses while in receipt of bailout money from the taxpayer.

23 Jul 2018 - CNBC Squawk Box

Market not predicting the end of the cycle just yet, says expert

Jon Harrison, managing director for EM macro strategy at TS Lombard, speaks about trends in markets.

22 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

China forecast to hit ‘peak housing’ and suffer decline in sales

Housing sales in China totalled 1.4bn square metres in 2017, an annual increase of 5 per cent. But subsidies accounted for a quarter of housing purchases last year, estimates Bo Zhuang, China economist at TS Lombard in Beijing, implying that without this support sales would already be in decline. 

19 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Fed’s Powell facing first test from the bond market

“He understands how to read markets,” said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. “He is trying to push interest rates to a level that he believes accurately reflects growth in the economy. As the yield curve flattens the market is telling you that you are reaching the high-water mark.”

19 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg

Commodity Contagion Spreads as Raw Material Crash Threatens Calm

“The potential damage to the global economy extends beyond trade,” Jon Harrison at TS Lombard said in an emailed note. “Uncertainty may already be discouraging investment and emerging-market assets will react to U.S. threats of further escalation even if the threatened actions are not ultimately implemented.”

18 Jul 2018 - CNBC

Fed Chair Powell right about trade and policy, economist says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress.

17 Jul 2018 - Reuters

Italy shock shows sovereign CDS still active - flaws and all

“(The 2014 ISDA definitions) took care of lots of questions about sovereign CDS... in terms of restructuring and what happens in case of a redenomination,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at financial research firm TS Lombard.

17 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg Podcast

Surveillance: What Russia Does is Bluff

Chris Granville, TS Lombard Managing Director of EMEA & Global Political Research, talks about the importance of smaller countries such as Finland in Brexit negotiations with the European Union.

16 Jul 2018 - CNBC Street Signs

Syria likely to be high on Trump and Putin's agenda: TS Lombard

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the looming Trump-Putin bilateral.

16 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Trade war fears blunt growth in global ETF industry

“Suddenly the world is facing the most serious outbreak of protectionism since the 1930s,” said Dario Perkins, a managing director at TS Lombard, the London-based economic consultancy. “Protectionism didn’t cause the Great Depression but it certainly prolonged it.”

16 Jul 2018 - CNBC

The bond market's recession signal may be wrong this time

Economists at TS Lombard think the recession prognosticators actually are watching the wrong yield curve. They say that rather than looking at the spread between 2s and 10s, the more meaningful pair is the three-month bill's spot price and its 18-month forward, or the market-implied price. That gap "is rising, suggesting a recession is not imminent," the firm said in a note. The reason TS Lombard prefers that spread as a gauge is that it reflects monetary policy "and therefore inverts when the market anticipates an easier monetary stance in response to the likelihood or onset of recession." As things stand, the Fed is indicating that it will continue to raise rates, or tighten policy, something it would not do if it was anticipating a substantial slowdown in growth.

16 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Fed Likely to React to Inflation in December, TS Lombard Says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, talks about the nation's economy, Federal Reserve policy, and Treasury yield curve. He speaks with Ramy Inocencio and Paul Allen on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia."

15 Jul 2018 - CNBC

How the Trump-Putin meeting could turn the tables on Ukraine — and US credibility

Christopher Granville, Russia expert and managing director at TS Lombard, doesn’t see any sea-changes ahead for U.S. policy in the area. “I don’t believe that Trump will actually ‘do’ anything on Ukraine,” he told CNBC. “At most, he may say that it’s a European problem.” Granville added that the most important topic for the president on Monday will likely be Syria, especially as it pertains to conflict between Israel and Iran.

14 Jul 2018 - CNBC

A look at the issues at stake ahead of Trump and Putin's summit

As hard as Putin may try for sanctions relief, removing them is no longer in Trump's power since their codification into law under CAATSA, said Christopher Granville, Russia expert and director at TS Lombard. "However, Trump does have the power not to impose any new ones," Granville noted. The American president has long been suspected of wanting to lift the sanctions, citing the need for improved relations with Moscow, and has deliberately missed previous congressional deadlines to impose them. "That is certainly valuable in itself for the Russian economy, since what causes damage is not so much particular sanctions measures in themselves, but lack of visibility of what new sanctions escalations might be on their way," Granville said.

11 Jul 2018 - Agence France-Press

The week Brexit got real: Britain turns pragmatic

“May seems to have emerged stronger — at least in the short term — from Davis and Johnson’s high profile resignations,” said Constantine Fraser, an analyst at TS Lombard, an economic research consultancy.

11 Jul 2018 - CNBC

More pain ahead for emerging markets as trade war gets hotter

“This really resulted from the escalation in trade tensions on multiple fronts,” said Jon Harrison, director of macro strategy at TS Lombard. “This is also taking place against a backdrop of tighter monetary policy as central banks raise rates.” “A lot of emerging markets have seen export growth in the past year, which helps their economies,” Harrison said. “But that is dependent on increases in global trade. If you see lower world trade, the big EM exporters will be hurt.”

11 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

These are the 3 biggest things to worry about this earnings season

Without the trade war, everything was in place for capital spending to rise and pull up real yields and wages, according to TS Lombard analysts Steven Blitz and Andrea Cicione. “But trade ‘war’ has arrived, mostly raising uncertainty that, in turn, stifles capital spending by business and households,” they wrote in a recent note.

11 Jul 2018 - The Street

Rising Gas Prices Threaten Consumers, Cutting Into Trump's Tax Cuts

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard, says Trump's flurry of policy initiatives - with countervalent effects on the economy - could ultimately undermine businesses' willingness to invest in new plants or hire more workers. That's especially true since many of the president's moves could be reversed by Congress or his successor. When it comes to foreign and economic policy, Trump may be trying to tackle too much at once, Blitz says: Fight trade wars, cut taxes, rip up nuclear-disarmament agreements, shake up healthcare laws, rail against allies like Germany for not paying their fair share of defense spending. The list keeps growing. "As a business guy, what are you going to do?" Blitz said. "You're going to put your hands in your pocket and do nothing, until you understand what is the permanent path of all these policies."

07 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

No longer just ‘noise’: ongoing trade uncertainty saps investor confidence

“Like most investors, we were assuming Trump’s trade war was mostly ‘noise’. We thought the likeliest outcome was a series of skirmishes, full of inconsequential measures and symbolic victories, which wouldn’t ultimately undermine the macroeconomic outlook,” wrote Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard. “Now, as trade tensions escalate — perhaps even to the brink of a full scale trade war — the risks to markets are obviously increasing,” he said.

07 Jul 2018 - Xinhua

UK crashing out of EU with no deal "very unlikely" despite Brexit worries

"The outcome that looks so unlikely as to be negligible is the one that many, including business and financial markets, fear whereby Britain crashes out of the EU with no treaty," Christopher Granville of TS Lombard, a London-based investment research firm, told Xinhua on Friday. "This is the so-called No Deal outcome. That is a very unlikely outcome to happen, so unlikely as to be negligible," said Granville.

06 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Trade risks toppling US equities from their pedestal

Analysts at TS Lombard write: “Capex is likely to remain subdued as long as US companies are unsure about the global trade environment.’’ As analysts at TS Lombard note: “Credit investors tend to be more sensitive to cycle turns than equity investors because of the negative skew of their expected returns. The more credit spreads widen, the harder it will be for stocks to keep rising.’’

05 Jul 2018 - CNBC

Economist: Populism the result of policy failures over the last 25 years

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the rise of global populism.

05 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

Stronger euro nicks dollar as political tensions take a back seat to upbeat eurozone data

“The underlying fundamentals in the euro zone remain solid. The expansion is still in the relatively early stages, and has room to run. The most recent set of data and sentiment surveys suggests that the worst may be behind us,” said Shweta Singh, managing director of global macro, at TS Lombard “There is one big caveat, however: the risk of higher trade barriers, which is already weighing on export orders and manufacturing, is rising.”

05 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

FTSE 100 holds gains as pound rises on Carney’s rate-hike signal

“So what do trade wars mean for financial markets? Clearly they are negative for equities. Economic growth would suffer, both short and longer term,” said Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro research at TS Lombard, in an note. “If we are also facing ‘de-globalization’, then we are probably talking about a lower equilibrium profits share,” he said.

“We are not saying that a major trade war is now inevitable, or even that this is the likeliest outcome. But rather that the chance of a quick resolution—the working assumption of most investors in 2018 — is fading away,” said Perkins.

05 Jul 2018 - The Street

Here's the Decimation a Trump Trade War Could Bring to the Global Economy

Investors return to the markets Thursday ill-prepared for the bottom to drop out when $34 billion in tariffs on China goods kicks in on Friday. And that's unfortunate because there is likely to be pain felt sans a last-minute reprieve from team Trump. So with that, the quotes of the day come compliments of TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins. If this isn't enough reason to move to cash or gold, I don't know what is.

05 Jul 2018 - CNBC

Dow jumps 200 points ahead of US tariffs on China, tech rises

“As he ratchets up the trade conflict with China, President Trump’s protectionism will inevitably start to damage the global economy,” said Dario Perkins, managing director at TS Lombard. “Markets are understandably skittish and a protracted period of tension could both undermine the macro outlook and produce a much nastier endgame.”

04 Jul 2018 - The Banker

Can anything derail China's economic growth?

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist for research firm TS Lombard, believes China can afford concessions to the US with regard to protecting intellectual property, enlarging market access and reducing the US merchandise trade deficit, but will baulk at changing its industrial policy. “There is a technological arms race between China and the developed world that will last 10 or 20 years. China won't give up. It’s more likely China will double up or triple up on investment in technology,” said Mr Zhuang.

03 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

Trump pushes U.S. closer to once-unthinkable trade war. Wall Street’s battered and it could get a lot worse

“It’s on the cusp of doing serious damage,” said chief economist Steve Blitz of TS Lombard.

03 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg

Xi Faces Hurdles Bashing American Brands in a Trump Trade War

Besides boycotts, Beijing could consider creating costly administrative bottlenecks for U.S. imports or impose punitive measures against U.S. companies operating in China, analysts at research firm TS Lombard wrote in a June 20 note.

01 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Renminbi’s worst month ever sparks US-China currency war fears

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, a research group, said that Beijing was probably allowing a tactical depreciation to send a signal to Washington but that a deep devaluation would be counterproductive for China. "Many market participants speculate... that China may have weaponised the renminbi, opting for a devaluation to offset the impact of US tariffs. We disagree, though policymakers are now considering devaluation as an option," said Mr Bo. The PBoC burnt through roughly $1tn in foreign exchange reserves in 2015-16 in order to fight market expectations of depreciation. Reviving those expectations now would carry big risks, Mr Bo cautioned. "Any benefit from a major renminbi devaluation would be far outweighed by the negative consequences: accelerated capital flight, domestic liquidity tightening and the possibility of increased credit stress,” he said.

30 Jun 2018 - CNBC

How a surprise deal to boost world oil supply could 'stir the pot' in the Middle East, and pressure Saudi's spare capacity

“Riyadh and Moscow are calling the shots, being the largest producers with the capacity to adjust output readily and in size,” wrote Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at research firm TS Lombard Research, in a note earlier this week. That position, however, isolated some OPEC countries eager to reap more revenue from higher prices.
As Iranian supply is squeezed by sanctions and Venezuela’s production hampered by a relentless deterioration in its economy, “Saudi Arabia with the [Gulf Cooperation Council Countries] and Russia are easily able to take up this kind of slack – Aramco alone has spare capacity of 2 million barrels per day, according to its CEO,” Venetis said, referring to Saudi’s massive public oil giant.

30 Jun 2018 - MarketWatch

Just because the economy is booming doesn’t mean that all is well

“When it comes to uncertainty, people put their hands in their pocket,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard. “It does negatively impact plans for investment.”

29 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Mexico election: Congressional contests will be key as a leftist is poised for runaway presidential win

“AMLO’s expected victory possibly represents the largest change in the political regime of the country in modern times,” Cristobal Arias, Latin America economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “Moreover, his victory could lead to significant gains in congressional seats too, as Mexicans have historically voted for the same party in both the presidential and congressional ballots.”
“AMLO supports NAFTA but would not bet on fostering international relations, particularly in an era of trade tensions,” said TS Lombard's Arias. “While we expect the NAFTA negotiations to resume after the election on 1 July, we believe the next administration will take a nationalist stance on NAFTA while it pursues the trade diversification agenda introduced by the current government in light of US protectionism.”

28 Jun 2018 - Reuters

US oil dips as markets well supplied despite strong demand, outages

"The physical oil market is well supplied," said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at research firm TS Lombard, although he warned OPEC and Russia were producing at near maximum output "leaving a thinner margin of safety for the future."

28 Jun 2018 - Barrons

After the Bell: Dow Drops 165 Points as Gains Evaporate With Trade Optimism

TS Lombard's Konstantinos Venetis writes that even with "100% compliance," that boost won't be "nearly enough to drag the market down. Absent a global growth scare, prices remain well supported and biased to the upside."

27 Jun 2018 - Reuters

Viva Espana: Spain emerges as euro zone bond market's star

“Italy is structurally problematic, and the divergence between Spain and Italy is because Spain was in a position to stimulate,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard. “From a fiscal standpoint, it ran a 6 percent deficit and is starting to rein it in. Italy has no such levers.”

27 Jun 2018 - Reuters

Market rate rise may thwart Fed's balance sheet plan

“It’s a signal that perhaps they are closer to their balance sheet bottom than they had previously thought,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

26 Jun 2018 - Reuters

Column: Creaking credit markets flash danger for stocks

“The credit cycle is past its peak, and credit tends to lead equities in signaling a maturing cycle,” wrote TS Lombard analysts in a note earlier this month. “The credit cycle is fast maturing.”

26 Jun 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The global trade conflict is ever-widening

China is also a big unknown: in view of the bilateral trade surplus, the Middle Kingdom can not respond with punitive tariffs to the same extent. Most analysts, however, assume that China mainly responds with non-financial measures. For example, according to the research house TS Lombard, Chinese companies could be instructed by Beijing to substitute US suppliers for European or Asian alternatives. Also, administratively, China could inflict some pain on the US - for example, acquisitions involving US corporations to deny the necessary approval of the competition guardians.

25 Jun 2018 - The Street

Trump's Obsession With Winning His China Trade War Could Pummel Investors

Pointed out TS Lombard strategist Christopher Granville: "Trump presumably sees this [pressure on China] as a case of cause and effect. The closer the election, the more attractive it may seem to come out with a victory declaration based on the concessions that China has already signaled - both on increasing imports from the U.S. and liberalizing the environment for U.S. investment in China, particularly as regards intellectual property protections. In addition to this display of keeping faith with his voters, this timing would also minimize the domestic economic losses from escalating trade tensions with China."

25 Jun 2018 - CNBC

The Fed's effort to control the rise of its key interest rate is running into some problems

Smaller banks "have been much more aggressive" in expanding lending than large banks, causing them to have to borrow from bigger institutions. That is creating most of the demand in the short-term funds market as big banks already have nearly $2 trillion in reserves at the Fed. That in turn is driving the funds rate higher, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Blitz said there remains some confusion about how high the level of reserves needs to be at the Fed, creating uncertainty about how far the Fed should go in tightening. As for the effort to keep the funds rate in check, "it doesn't seem to be working," he added.

22 Jun 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Japanese Investors Are Back to Their Foreign Bond Buying Ways​

“It seems pretty logical to buy foreign debt at the moment for Japanese investors,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

21 Jun 2018 - CNBC

US Treasury yields fall on lingering worries over global trade

"There is, however, good reason to believe Trump's trade tactics are less about blowing up the global economy than they are about pushing global trading dynamics towards a better semblance of balance. The net result, if successful, could be an increase in domestic capital investment," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.

19 Jun 2018 - Financial Times

US tax reform drains more dollars from global economy than Fed

Steven Blitz, an economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said that while foreign central banks blamed the combination of a shrinking Fed balance sheet and higher US government borrowing for their difficulties, the figures showed that “the greater force draining dollars appear to be the recent change in US tax law”.
“Banks in these countries will not be getting the same growth in dollar deposits as in the past for a given level of activity,” Mr Blitz said, adding that this would limit such banks’ capacity to lend.

19 Jun 2018 - South China Morning Post

Why a weaker euro means Trump’s trade war may not be so easy for him to win

Looking ahead, investment research firm TS Lombard noted on Friday that the policy rate gap between the ECB and the Fed “is now 2.4 per cent” and, based on their expectations that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points every quarter, it is set to widen by a further 1 per cent in the next 12 months.

“The negative carry associated with [the euro] is becoming a drag on the currency,” TS Lombard’s Europe Team concluded.

19 Jun 2018 - Reuters

'Quitaly' risk premium lingers even as Italy's new government commits to euro

“‘Quitaly’ or ‘Italexit’, or whatever you wish to call the possibility of Italy leaving the euro area, is not on the political horizon. But once the seed of risk is planted, financial markets tend to extrapolate,” said Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard.

18 Jun 2018 - Financial Times

China hopes countermoves will help prevent all-out trade war with US

“The next step is more important, whether Washington is going for the $100bn tariffs or not,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at consultancy TS Lombard. The US’s total exports to China were a record $130bn last year, meaning a tit-for-tat retaliation would have to cover all imports from the US and more. Any tariff rounds beyond that could be a “disaster” for China economically, added Mr Zhuang.

17 Jun 2018 - The Guardian

The order Trump holds in contempt was once America’s proudest creation

Seventy years ago, as a new major book suggests, America helped rebuild Europe and assumed the role of global peacemaker - Jonathan Fenby, Managing Director European Political Research. 

17 Jun 2018 - The Guardian

It's easy to see why populists do well in an age of insecurity

In his new book, Charles Dumas says: “It is vital that the label ‘populism’ does not become a sneer. To be sure, demagogues have readily exploited widespread discontent with quack remedies. But centrist politicians and commentators have shown equally widespread lack of empathy with the legitimate grievances that underlie this neo-Luddism. The way combined globalisation, technology, demographics and financial imbalances are developing could only too easily aggravate neo-Luddism in future, as well as false ethnic and/or regional divisions.”

16 Jun 2018 - CNBC

The Fed said it's hiking rates four times this year, but the market's not convinced

"From the data we look at, there is every reason to believe the economy will more than justify the Fed's proposed trajectory for policy rates," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note to clients. "The trajectory for higher policy rates is in place. The market's 'bet' against that happening is what looks wrong."

14 Jun 2018 - CNBC

How Italian turmoil in the bond markets could spark a domino effect across Europe

"Italy is by far the biggest threat to euro area stability … The economy suffers from a dangerous mix of weak growth, poor competitiveness, high public debt and a struggling banking sector," Shweta Singh, the managing director at TS Lombard, said in a report published Monday.

13 Jun 2018 - Reuters Video

Producer prices rise in May

U.S. prices at the wholesale level rose more than expected in May. "The trend is unmistakable. Input prices are going up. The Federal Reserve's on track to raise rates 25 basis points today and raise rates in September and December and probably on a quarterly basis into next year." says Steve Blitz, US Chief Economist at TS Lombard.

13 Jun 2018 - Valor Economico

Fitch predicts four high interest rates by Fed

Research and research firm TS Lombard also believes the US Central Bank  should raise interest rates today and twice more this year in September and December. These increases in addition to that of March will add up to four highs, according to US economist Steven Blitz. Beginning in 2019, the economist also projects "a quarterly rate hike" due to the effects of the economy's acceleration in inflation and wages. The Fed will print a high pace that should push the Fed Funds rate target to "2.5% or even 3% per year" by 2019 "and then see what happens." 

13 Jun 2018 - Valor Economico

TS Lombard: Repatriation of US companies justifies high dollar

The dollar strength is currently directly linked to interest upward move by the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank), but to the chief economist at consulting and research firm TS Lombard in the United States, Steven Blitz , there is another short-term factor that has made the American currency intensify the appreciation: the repatriation of profits retained abroad by American companies.

10 Jun 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Italy: a high systemic risk

In the financial markets, quick and easy-to-remember short formulas are often invented for complex problems. However, unlike, for example, in 2012, when Grexit came forward for the threat of Greece's exit from the euro zone and the reintroduction of the drachma, there still seems to be no consensus on the name of a possible departure from Italy. The traders could not have decided between Italexit, Quitaly or even Europaderci, says with a slight mockery Dario Perkins of TS Lombard.

09 Jun 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

UBS and CS are taking little risks in Italy

Whatever experiments the Italian government takes on - the two Swiss banks have little to fear. Their involvement in Italy is insignificant and also focuses on businesses. By far the most exposed French banks are on the Italian peninsula. They hold claims in their books that, according to a compilation of TS Lombard economists, account for 12% of French gross domestic product.

08 Jun 2018 - Barrons

The Dark Side of the Boom

While the repatriation of U.S. corporations’ profits held overseas has helped pay for buybacks, it also has drained those dollars held in banks abroad, causing dislocations in the global banking system. In essence, this shift has hampered the ability of foreign banks to expand their balance sheets, writes Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

He estimates U.S. corporations’ earnings held abroad fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $632 billion in the first quarter, which he compared to the $160 billion SAAR of decline in the Fed’s securities holdings. Blitz opines this effect has had an even bigger impact on emerging markets than the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which is being blamed by some monetary authorities abroad for the weakness of EM currencies.

08 Jun 2018 - CNBC

A flood of upcoming elections around the globe could wreak havoc on the financial markets

The AK Party "is still very strong. However, they made a tactical error," said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at TS Lombard. "Politics in Turkey are much more entrenched than they are in America. We'll quite likely see a scenario of political paralysis if the current polls are to be believed." "With a country facing an economic crisis, this the worst time for that," Chenevix said.

07 Jun 2018 - Financial Times

Fresh slump in Italian bonds amid jittery markets

“So is the euro crisis back? The sad truth is that it never really went away — it just lost all sense of urgency after Mario Draghi promised to protect the single currency [in 2012],” said Dario Perkins, global macro managing director at TS Lombard. The speed of last week’s market sell-off was “frightening”, Mr Perkins added, and it provoked conversations among investors about the possibility of Italy exiting the eurozone which were “a scary reminder of past discussions about Greece”.

07 Jun 2018 - The Spectator

The Spectator Podcast: Putin’s Losing Game

Podcast with Christopher Granville, former diplomat and Russia expert at TS Lombard. 

06 Jun 2018 - The Street

Tax-Cut-Fueled Stock Buybacks Retard Emergence of Trump's 'Greatest' Economy

Yet many economists say there are few signs so far that the tax cuts are making much of a difference in overall economic output. Steve Blitz, chief economist at the consultant TS Lombard, said he's seen "zero" impact, though he does expect businesses to eventually increase capital spending on such things as new plants, technology and equipment.

"All that's really occurred so far is that it's put more cash on corporate balance sheets," Blitz said in a phone interview. Corporate treasurers are investing much of that money in U.S. Treasury bonds or putting it into accounts at banks, which also often put money into Treasuries, he said. "That money is being lent to pay for the deficit."

04 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Nasdaq notches record close as shares of Apple and Amazon jump to new highs

"Multilateral tariffs are certainly a warning sign that this is no longer merely a case of US protectionism and that the world is edging towards a trade war," said Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note. "In such a circumstance, global trade growth could fall by 10pp and global GDP by over 1.5pp (according to IMF estimates, after five years).  "The impact of tariffs has been mostly restricted to those sectors that are directly affected. Retaliation is likely to widen the impact and increase political risk, but for now the US economy continues to motor on," Brennan said.

04 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Merkel lays out her vision for the euro — but her ideas are still far from Macron's

"This is Merkel's first attempt to lay out a position on euro zone reform," Constantine Fraser, Europe analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email. "She knows she has to engage with demands for more risk-sharing, but also has to bring onboard the conservatives in her CDU-CSU (coalition), and act, in a way, as the spokeswoman for the skeptical smaller northern European countries."

04 Jun 2018 - MarketWatch

Trump’s constant threats and reversals spur investors to see him as boy who cried wolf

“The markets appear only marginally concerned about trade at this point, perhaps because investors are assuming that what we are seeing is the typical Trump pattern: announce something drastic, but in the end it’s not so bad,” wrote investment-research firm TS Lombard.

04 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Mass protests in Jordan push out prime minister

But the fiscal measures were needed, according to Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard. "Reform of some kind is certainly necessary. The current deficit is massive, more than 10 percent of GDP, government debt has nearly doubled since 2007 ... The country cannot go on like this," Chenevix told CNBC, adding that the unrest of the last week was a long time coming. "Fundamentally, growth in the Jordanian economy has been slowing for a decade — something had to give."

01 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Bond expert believes that 'brave' investors should be looking for a rebound in emerging markets

While experts might be optimistic of a rebound for the asset class, some warn that certain countries should be still be avoided due to very specific conditions. Lawrence Brainard, chief economist for emerging markets at TS Lombard, believes that volatility from the troubled markets of Argentina and Turkey could threaten the space more broadly. "The economic turmoil evident in Argentina and Turkey may be a harbinger of what is in store for other EMs, such as Brazil," he said.

31 May 2018 - Reuters

OPEC May oil output hits new low on Nigeria, Venezuela

“OPEC’s bias to err on the side of tightening remains intact,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. “Easing the restrictions just means that its ‘line in the sand’ moves slightly back.”

30 May 2018 - Reuters

Oil edges towards $76, supported by tight supplies

“Fundamentally, not much has changed. Oil remains well supported, although the sweetspot has entered a mature phase,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. “Some air is fizzling out of the market and position-squaring raises the likelihood of an overshooting to the downside in the run-up to OPEC’s June meeting.”

29 May 2018 - The Street

Worried About Stocks? This FANG Stock Chart Will Definitely Feed Your Anxiety

To be sure, investors have good reasons to pull some money off the table. TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins points to four areas of concern:

  • Eurozone data that has missed consensus forecasts by the widest margin since the global financial crisis. Perkins calls EU macro data in 2017 "implausibly high", so a slowdown was inevitable.
  • The OECD's leading indicators have dipped.
  • Global industrial orders and trade data have softened, notably among Asian supply chains.
  • Emerging markets more broadly have slowed, in part thanks to the stronger U.S. dollar.
29 May 2018 - Arab News

Saudi bank lending climbs on real estate loans

“It’s a hard indicator to read, but it may be a sign that Saudi consumers and business people feel less uncertain about the future and a bit more secure. It is probably linked to the return to fiscal expansion,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard in London. “However, Saudi Arabia has a comparatively underdeveloped banking sector for its level of per-capita wealth, meaning that this is an area in which we would expect to see pretty strong growth.”

29 May 2018 - ICIS

Turkey’s central bank calms markets but economic growth woes persist

“Absolutely. First it was Argentina, now Turkey. The country has been able to fund very high growth, in the face of large external imbalances, by tapping the easy money created by QE [quantitative easing, by the US Fed or the eurozone’s ECB, among others]. As markets begin to look ahead to an exit from QE, funding conditions are getting systemically tougher for Turkish banks, just as they are for other Ems [emerging markets],” Marcus Chenevix, a financial analyst for Turkey at London-based TS Lombard, told ICIS.

29 May 2018 - CNBC

Why Trump’s Iran sanctions could backfire on US goals to stabilize Afghanistan’s economy

"This policy of isolating Iran runs directly counter to U.S. interests in Afghanistan," said Marcus Chenevix, MENA researcher at TS Lombard. By potentially forcing Afghanistan to sever links with one of its largest trading partners, he said, "the Trump administration is hitting the beleaguered Afghan economy with yet another shock at a time when the government is already struggling against a reinvigorated Taliban." A trilateral memorandum of understanding signed in 2016 between India, Iran and Afghanistan committed $21 billion to the project — $9 billion for the actual port in Chabahar, and the remaining $21 billion for developing Afghanistan's iron ore export capabilities. "This deal was all about Afghanistan," Chenevix said.

28 May 2018 - Reuters

Flood or dud? Inflows from China MSCI entry are anybody's guess

Research house TS Lombard said in a note that fund managers could easily adjust their portfolios by buying Hong Kong-listed stocks, meaning they would not need increased mainland exposure. Of the 230 or so A-shares being added to the index, 49 have H-share listings.

24 May 2018 - Bloomberg

Trump Pushes the World Right Into Putin’s Hands

With Italy’s incoming populist government certain to block any new European Union sanctions and perhaps even trigger an easing, there’s suddenly a more “constructive atmosphere” for Russia in Europe, said Christopher Granville of London-based consultancy TS Lombard.

23 May 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Fall as Trade Tensions Linger

Europe’s auto sector, often seen as a potential target in trade spats, fell 1.9%. “The question is whether Europe becomes the next trade target for Trump,” said Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard. “If Italy went down the path of putting in place all these measures [in a leaked draft agreement] there would be a massive budget deficit,” said Mr. Cicione. “But a coalition like this one, with a thin majority... is not going to implement anything like the measures they put forward.”

23 May 2018 - CNBC

Greece’s economic future is nearing a crucial moment

"Having the IMF on board would be one of the best ways to signal to market participants that Greece can now sustainably look after itself," Constantine Fraser, a Europe analyst at research firm TS Lombard told CNBC via email. He added that Germany is also determined to see the IMF sign off on the current bailout. "After all, IMF participation was a precondition for the Bundestag (German Parliament) agreeing to the 2015 bailout."

23 May 2018 - Financial Times

John Authers: Fearful Symmetry

The concept of symmetry, or the notion that an overshoot of the inflation target is no less desirable than an undershoot by the same margin, is mentioned frequently, and might conceivably be taken to mean that in effect the FOMC has raised the level of inflation it is prepared to tolerate. This comment comes from Steve Blitz of TS Lombard: The doves ruled-the-roost during this meeting with their myriad reasons given for why inflation really is not yet at 2%. By convincing themselves this is so, policy gave way to a symmetrical inflation target (symmetrical might be the most repeated word in these minutes) in order to prevent a policy overreaction that would keep the economy from reaching the FOMC’s “symmetric 2% objective” on a “sustained basis”. Sustained was probably the second most used word in these minutes.

19 May 2018 - The Street

A Silent Global Economic Slowdown Is Playing Out and Investors Should Beware

"While we should be careful not to exaggerate the recent deterioration in global economic data - particularly as it follows synchronized, above-trend growth in 2017 - it is clear that there are now scattered signs of weakness," points out TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins. "While macroeconomic data have proved more resilient at the global level, the outlook has also deteriorated compared to what investors expected at the start of the year."

17 May 2018 - CNBC

Trump right that Iran's hostility in Middle East can't carry on: TS Lombard

Marcus Chenevix, MENA and global political analyst at TS Lombard, speaks about U.S. foreign policy on Iran.

17 May 2018 - Bloomberg

The U.S.-China Rivalry Is Just Getting Started

Even if the two sides work out a deal on trade, the clear evidence that the U.S. is capable of shutting down one of China’s most important tech companies practically overnight has almost certainly made the Chinese more determined than ever to build up their domestic capabilities. “China’s sense of urgency in developing core technologies is now more urgent.” Bo Zhuang, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard, puts it even more bluntly in an email: “We are heading towards a technological arms race between China and the West.”

17 May 2018 - CNBC

Iraq’s election result is a backlash against foreign influence — and a curveball for the US and Iran

"A strong result for Sadrists is not great news for the U.S., but it is not the worst news either," despite the violent history between the two, according to Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and global politics researcher at TS Lombard. "Sadr is relatively independent of Iranian control, much more so than Amiri. So this result is going to result in a more difficult relationship with the Iraqi government, but it will not create a rift between Iraq and the West."

17 May 2018 - Financial Times

EM currencies on the ropes as 10-year bond yield tops 3.1%

“The recent sell-off in EM assets is not a surprise,” said Shweta Singh, a global macro strategist at TS Lombard. “A resurgent dollar and higher yields will raise EMs’ funding and debt-servicing costs. In more extreme cases, it could lead to a reversal of EM carry trades, which have proliferated since the great financial crisis.”

15 May 2018 - Financial Times

Is the euro’s Italian ‘nightmare’ about to come true?

Constantine Fraser at TS Lombard thinks Italy’s “pussycat populists” are no longer the “nightmare” the EU once feared. Expect compromise ministerial candidates and a palatable prime ministerial choice in the days ahead. “The Italian political system is terrible at yielding strong, stable governments with a mandate to take difficult decisions. But it still does well what it was designed to do following the fall of fascism: to diffuse power, deflect political impulses, and generally throw up obstacles to ambitious programmes of all kinds”, adds Mr Fraser.

15 May 2018 - CNBC

Major India vote boosts Prime Minister Modi's party, but markets suffer a rocky trade

"Investor attention will very quickly turn to the campaigns in the three big northern states scheduled for polls later this year," said Shumita Deveshwar, senior director for India research at TS Lombard, in a note Monday. "Those polls will be more indicative of the BJP's popularity as northern India is the party's traditional stronghold," she explained.

15 May 2018 - CNBC

Turkey’s economy is entering a ‘slow burning crisis,’ analysts warn

"The government has no intention of tackling imbalances or overheating," Marcus Chenevix, global political research analyst at TS Lombard, said in a research note this week. "It is this unwillingness to act that leads us to believe that we can now say that Turkey is entering a slow burning crisis."

14 May 2018 - CNBC

US inflation taking a back seat to wages: TS Lombard

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steve Blitz speaks about the Federal Reserve's approach to raising interest rates.

14 May 2018 - CNBC

Dow posts 8-day winning streak as US-China trade concerns abate

"For the President to become suddenly concerned about Chinese jobs is quite a volte-face," said Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China research at TS Lombard. "The most probable explanation can only be that he wants to butter up Xi with a concession on the trade front to get China's help to make [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un amenable to a deal at the Singapore summit, in an application of linkage he advanced last year of Korea and China trade issues."

12 May 2018 - Financial Times

Britain’s relationship with Turkey in charts

The UK sees Turkey “as a fast-growing market for exactly the kind of exports that British governments are always trying to encourage, namely cars, machinery and pharmaceuticals, all of which generate jobs in areas where elections are won,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at TS Lombard. But he added that Turkey could become “a bigger part the UK’s supply chain, especially in terms of machinery and parts”, mainly thanks to being cheaper and a “very able supplier of manufactured goods”. The UK “needs Turkey more than ever as an economic and geopolitical partner”, said Mr Chenevix.

09 May 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg - Daybreak

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, on Bloomberg Radio.

07 May 2018 - Reuters

Dollar surge bringing emerging market rate cut cycle to a halt

India, like all energy-importing emerging economies, is being hit also by the oil price rise — each $10 rise in oil prices adds 0.8 percent to inflation there, analysts at TS Lombard calculate.

06 May 2018 - Financial Times

Emerging economies tipped to weather market turmoil

“Markets are not yet pricing in a long and ugly US-China confrontation,” said Jon Harrison, economist at TS Lombard, adding: “over the next few months, trade tensions, dollar strength, higher Treasury yields, rising inflation, weaker current accounts and geopolitics will lead to a deeper correction”.

05 May 2018 - The Telegraph

Greece escapes a financial tragedy

Unemployment is down from almost 28pc in 2014 to just over 21pc. The trend gives more workers money in their pockets and leaves fewer in need of benefits. Economists across Europe are impressed. “For the first time in years, the clouds over Athens seem to be just starting to clear,” says Shweta Singh, at TS Lombard. “Albeit from a very low base, things are starting to look up.”

02 May 2018 - Reuters

Asia sees signs of export weakness before key U.S.-China trade talks

“The agreement to talk, even if not yet to begin formal negotiations, is ... a step in the right direction, albeit one that brings a risk of negative market reaction when followed by inevitable disappointment as talks enter a more protracted phase,” said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard.

02 May 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg Markets: Fed Holds The Line, Apple’s iPhone Growth

Steven Blitz Chief U.S. Economist TS Lombard discussing FOMC rate decision and economic impact.

01 May 2018 - Financial Times

Wrongfooted dollar traders brace for Fed hawkishness

TS Lombard said the backdrop of the FOMC discussion was one of economic growth “with price and wage trends pointing higher and capital spending improving”. While a rate increase was unlikely this week, “we believe a more hawkish statement is coming”, its analysts added.

01 May 2018 - CNBC

Trump looks set to scrap Iran's nuclear deal — and this is where it'll hurt the most

"As always, the parts of the economy that will be worst hit are the parts that are most internationally-connected," Marcus Chevenix, MENA analyst at independent research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC Tuesday. "And those parts in Iran are oil and banking. If I had to flag up an area that was very vulnerable it would be banking," he said. Chevenix said that if the U.S. decided to impose "secondary sanctions" on Iran, it could prevent European firms doing business with the country, even if they wanted to. Secondary sanctions deter other countries or institutions (such as European banks) from doing business with Iran because they don't want to be blacklisted - or "exposed" as Chenevix said - by the U.S. for doing so, effectively cutting off Iranian business from access to external investment and financial systems. "If Trump was to impose secondary sanctions, he could cut off the Iranian banking system from the rest of the world and that would take us back to a pre-2015 situation. The U.S. has all sorts of unilateral power here," he said.

30 Apr 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Higher interest rates are not a problem yet

It was a long-awaited moment. For the first time since January 2014, ten-year US government bonds returned more than 3% on April 24. According to Steven Blitz, economist of the research house TS Lombard, the value of 3% is "not more important than a return of 2.99 or 3.01%". Nevertheless, market observers spoke of a milestone. Because the threshold is psychological. It was last tested several times but not exceeded.

30 Apr 2018 - CNBC

There's an 'undeclared new Cold War' between the US and China - and it's in tech

Increased scrutiny from the U.S. on Chinese firms could exacerbate the tension, according to Jonathan Fenby, chairman of the China team at independent research group TS Lombard. "U.S. moves designed to curb China's technological development are likely to act as a fresh spur to its push to expand its cyber capacity," he said in a note Thursday.

30 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

Fears of a new taper tantrum grow as dollar debts surge around the world

Economist Dario Perkins at TS Lombard believes this will give the Fed cause for caution on rate rises. “When there was a 20pc appreciation of the dollar a couple of years ago, it had a much more powerful effect on global economy than everyone expected – the Fed ignored it, and were still in this world where they thought they had basically a closed economy and it didn’t matter. But then they saw these powerful spillovers into emerging markets, then into oil prices, and then back into US again,” he said. “They were planning to raise interest rates quite aggressively, but then the dollar appreciated and they just couldn’t do it." New Fed chair Jerome Powell’s background in financial markets combined with this prior experience may cause the central bank to act more cautiously, he said.

30 Apr 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Inflation Hit Federal Reserve’s 2% Target in March

Inflation softened last year, in part because mobile phone service providers slashed prices. That has now washed through the system and Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said “the great disinflation scare of 2017 appears to have ended” in a recent note to clients.

27 Apr 2018 - MarketWatch

Stingy consumer spending in GDP report grabs the attention of economists

“With strong growth and inflation beginning to follow, the real story of Q1 GDP data, it is increasingly difficult to argue for the federal funds rate to trade below inflation and, more to the point, that somehow the 2% inflation target hasn’t already been breached. Could the Fed go [next] week? Not likely, but there are no rules preventing it. A more hawkish statement is coming.” says Steven Blitz, TS Lombard.

27 Apr 2018 - Reuters

U.S. economy slows in first quarter, but wage growth accelerates

“It is increasingly difficult to argue that the 2 percent inflation target hasn’t already been breached,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. “Could the Fed go next week? Not likely, but there are no rules preventing it. A more hawkish statement is coming.”

27 Apr 2018 - IG Group

Turbulence ahead but China to drive EM’s long expansion

Volatility will return to emerging markets, according to TS Lombard’s Jon Harrison, as geopolitical tensions may trigger a correction, but EM will come through this.

26 Apr 2018 - The Guardian

The silent recovery: how much longer can America’s long, slow boom last?

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macroeconomics at the research company TS Lombard, says the US is not alone in having experienced a long period of growth. “Among the developed economies, Australia, Sweden, Germany and Canada all have expansions that match or surpass the US achievement. And if we extend the analysis to the emerging economies, we find several countries with even more impressive performances.” Europe, which suffered a double-dip recession and only began a sustained pick-up in 2013, is the one part of the world where the recovery looks relatively immature, Perkins says.

26 Apr 2018 - The Sydney Morning Herald

Macron resists Trump's 'America first' in speech to US Congress

"Much freight is moved by rail in France, not road, so it will have an effect on the economy," says economist Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. "Macron will probably have to say to [EU partners] Germany and to Brussels, 'we'll not do as well this year as last year'. But he has been buoyed by the eurozone economy. Also he does not have a coherent political opposition."

25 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

We must heed warnings from the 1970s bear market

If there is a risk that inflation is being underestimated in the advanced economies, it is at its greatest in the US. The economy is growing at a good pace and is being deluged with fiscal largesse when already close to full employment. Treasury yields are increasingly sensitive to the risk of overheating and that in turn, according to Konstantinos Venetis of TS Lombard, has made Treasuries less attractive as a hedge, diverting some haven flows to the gold market. Gold, of course, was just the place to be in the bear market of 1973-74.

25 Apr 2018 - Reuters

Gold falls on strong dollar, higher U.S. yields

"As the Goldilocks market environment draws to a close,investor interest in gold has picked up," TS Lombard said in a note, referring to an economy that is not so hot that it causes inflation, and not so cold that it causes a recession.

24 Apr 2018 - South China Morning Post

Forget the Hong Kong dollar, it’s Japanese banks that may crack under US dollar funding strain

If tighter US dollar funding conditions are to persist or worsen, it might prove uncomfortable for Japan’s banks. Indeed, a piece in February from financial research group TS Lombard was pointedly titled “Is the Next Lehman Japanese?”  While “European banks played a decisive role in the subprime crisis,” TS Lombard wrote, Japan’s banks “may have taken over as the main systemic vulnerability”, having greatly expanded the size of their US dollar loan books in recent years, leaving themselves with huge US dollar funding needs, reminiscent of European banks in 2007. 

24 Apr 2018 - Reuters

India's Modi may need an alliance to rule southern state, poll shows

“Karnataka is significant for the BJP because it needs to outperform in the south and the east of the country to make up for expected losses in the north,” said Amitabh Dubey, a political analyst with consultancy TS Lombard. “In the general election they are unlikely to repeat the same result as the last time in states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat.”

21 Apr 2018 - The Spectator

Has Kim Jong-un finally grown up?

Given the mutual bluster, threats and sabre-rattling we got used to from Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, it may be hard to credit the air of sweet reasonableness that has spread over the Korean peninsula in recent weeks leading to the weekend announcement of an end to weapons testing by the North. The potential for a reversion to confrontation is all too evident. Pyongyang has a long record of reneging on agreements and its announcement contained no mention of a reduction in its arsenal that includes missiles which can hit Japan and South Korea even if it stops development of ICBMs aimed at the USA. But, for the moment at least, this seems a moment when the different interests of the main players have been brought into alignment, not only Trump and the two Koreas but also the big beast in the region – China.

20 Apr 2018 - Reuters

Safe no more? Swiss franc slide raises Russia puzzle

“The repatriation of Russian flight capital is certainly a live theme, but the latest geo-political tensions are just adding fuel rather than being the root cause,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at consultancy TS Lombard. He noted Russia had joined the Automatic Exchange of Information on Financial Accounts, an OECD initiative to crack down on tax dodging, in 2016, but its information exchange process with partner countries, including Switzerland, went live only in January 2018. “Since Russian tax residents can no longer be sure of keeping their money safe in Switzerland, they feel they might as well repatriate and take advantage of a tax amnesty at home - then pay tax at (Russia’s) 13 percent rate,” Granville said.

20 Apr 2018 - Expansion

The Goldsmith financiers, scared by the crisis in Catalonia

Other analysts believe that the composition of the Spanish stock market, with the weight of large multinational groups, makes it more dependent on the euro than Catalonia (except hecatomb). "Since last summer, the Ibex has been damaged by Telefónica and Inditex, affected by the strength of the euro and other factors in their respective sectors," says Constantine Fraser, TS Lombard.

17 Apr 2018 - BBC

China's first quarter growth beats expectations at 6.8%

Against this backdrop, Bo Zhuang, China economist at the research firm TS Lombard told the BBC that exports growth is the top growth risk in 2018. And while Mr Zhuang said stock markets have already priced in significant risks of a trade war, his firm believes it is feasible and likely that a deal can be negotiated. As such, Chinese growth data through 2018 will be closely watched for any impact of tariffs proposed by the US.

16 Apr 2018 - Bloomberg

Yuan Has Become a Safe Haven, Says TS Lombard's Brainard

Larry Brainard, TS Lombard chief emerging markets economist, discusses the relationship between the U.S. and China. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton and Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Markets."

16 Apr 2018 - Bloomberg

TS Lombard's Blitz Calls Clarida Fed Pick Positive for Markets

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz discusses the markets and weighs in on U.S. President Donald Trump announcing his intention to nominate Richard Clarida as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. Blitz speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

15 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

The eurozone's boom is over – how worried should we be?

“Much freight is moved by rail in France, not road, so it will have an effect on the economy,” says Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. “Macron will probably have to say to Germany and to Brussels, ‘we’ll not do as well this year as last year’. But he has been buoyed by the eurozone economy. Also he does not have a coherent political opposition.”

14 Apr 2018 - Barrons

Oil Prices Haven’t Peaked Yet

We’re likely to see $80 within the next three months, but we don’t think that price is sustainable for long. We think Russia is the most likely risk for higher production which would send prices down again, says Marucs Chenevix, Analyst, EMEA and global political risk, TS Lombard

13 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Trump misses opportunity to curb China's growing global influence by skipping Summit of the Americas

"US officials [had] previously suggested that an agreement in principle could be reached in time for the Summit of the Americas," said Jon Harrison, managing director and EM macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note Wednesday. "A delay until at least the end of the month now appears more likely. A new NAFTA deal would confirm US willingness to compromise on trade and help offset the rising criticism of Trump's policy from businesses."

10 Apr 2018 - South China Morning Post

US-China trade war may be a boon to the euro and Brazilian real

Taking that argument into the currency space, TS Lombard’s senior macro strategist Oliver Brennan argued last week that the Brazilian real could appreciate versus the US dollar as the foreign exchange market starts to realise that any tariff-related reduction in US soybean exports to China, as a consequence of the trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, could be to Brazil’s advantage. 

09 Apr 2018 - Wall Street Journal

A Trade War Could Add to the Dollar’s Woes

“It’s hard to see the dollar going up,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “If all these tariffs cause the U.S. economy to slow…the dollar would weaken.”

09 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

Brazil could reap benefits of China-US trade tension

“China’s interest in investing in Brazil and its dependence on Brazilian commodities will continue to strengthen in the current environment,” said TS Lombard analysts Elizabeth Johnson and Larry Brainard in a research note. 

09 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Russian stocks crash on new sanctions; aluminum prices soar on penalties to global producer Rusal

"The new US sanctions against Russia are a negative game-changer for three reasons: they directly affect portfolio investments; they are de-linked from clear conditionality; and they will be applied 'extra-territorially,'" said Christopher Granville, a managing director at TS Lombard, in a note to clients. The sanctions "justify a higher risk premium in Russian asset valuations."

09 Apr 2018 - Reuters

Russia's ruble, Rusal, Sberbank take hits as US sanctions bite

“Rusal will probably have to be bailed out by Russian state banks,” analysts at TS Lombard wrote, adding that Deripaska may also be forced to sell his stake in Norilsk Nickel, losing a drawn-out battle with Vladimir Potanin for control of the metals giant.

09 Apr 2018 - CNBC

The US could lift sanctions on Zimbabwe — but only if the new president holds fair elections

“The new president (of Zimbabwe) can expect to get both financial aid, more help with infrastructure (including the expansion of Harare airport) and technological assistance, as well as Chinese participation in agricultural projects,” Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC last week of the visit.

06 Apr 2018 - Reuters

U.S. job gains smallest in six months, wage growth firming

“In sum, no change in the Fed’s trajectory,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. “If anything, the wage data are beginning to strengthen the argument for three more hikes this year.”

06 Apr 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Steve Blitz on the March 2018 Jobs Report

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, joins Carol Massar in studio to discuss March jobs report.

06 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

Soyabean wars: China tries to hit Donald Trump where it hurts

The consultancy TS Lombard estimates a 10 per cent rise in soyabean prices would lift inflation by less than 0.2 per cent, suggesting China has room for manoeuvre.

06 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

US imposes toughest Russian sanctions to date

“This is a sweeping attack against the Russian establishment,” said Christopher Granville, managing director of TS Lombard, the consultancy.

05 Apr 2018 - CNBC

TS Lombard: Fair and reciprocal Chinese-US trade is impossible

There are more serious issues than tariffs that the U.S. and China will have to discuss in the long term, Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China team at TS Lombard, said.

05 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Brazilian stocks jump after court ruling likely cripples Lula's chances for election run

"The fact that he's likely unable to run throws the race wide open," said Lawrence Brainard, chief economist for emerging markets at TS Lombard. "The various polls with [da Silva] as a candidate show him as the leading candidate. The other candidates are sort of spread out." 

Brainard notes that, with da Silva likely out of the picture, a centrist candidate pushing for economic reforms could emerge to win the October contest. "But no one knows who that will be," he said.

04 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

Mark Carney walks 
a tightrope on future interest rate decisions

“The combination of subpar real income growth, fragile household balance sheets and Brexit uncertainty may mean that the housing market is more vulnerable to a quicker pace of monetary tightening than currently anticipated,” said Konstantinos Venetis at TS Lombard.

“The glass is only half-full on the economy. Growth is nowhere near lift-off. Even with rate increases that are ‘at a gradual pace and to a limited extent’, the MPC will be treading a fine line,” says TS Lombard’s Venetis.

04 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

China ‘throws down gauntlet’ to Trump on trade with new tariffs against US goods

Analysts added that there was still room to avoid catastrophe. “‘Trade War’ is a convenient shorthand. We expect the confrontation between the US and its trading partners, particularly China, ultimately to lead to negotiated compromises on a range of trade, tariff, access and intellectual property issues,” said Jon Harrison at TS Lombard. “By contrast, a full-on trade war, which we do not expect, would entail escalating tit-for-tat protectionist measures that would have a deeply negative impact on trade. World trade volumes may not deliver on the optimistic expectations of some analysts, but we do not expect a collapse. Markets will nonetheless remain on edge owing to the chaotic US negotiating style.”

04 Apr 2018 - CNBC Closing Bell

American worker and consumer lose from tit-for-tat tariffs

Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard China team chairman, and Steve Orlins, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations president, discuss the retaliatory tariff environment between the U.S. and China.

03 Apr 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Investors in a clinch with the signs of the times

Analyzing the impact of President Trump's trade policy on the US and global economies or on the financial markets is the key point, says Steven Blitz, US economist for TS Lombard. Rather, Trump intended to shake up the world trade system, treating huge surpluses as virtues they are not, and sustaining them with countless impediments from market forces balancing unequal trade flows through currency adjustments. Trump's main concern is China. In particular, he urged the "theft of intellectual property" to prevent the United States from losing its know-how lead through forced technology transfer.

03 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Dow closes more than 350 points higher as tech cuts Monday's losses

Investors "have been reassessing their stance on the sector," said Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard. "There are ever louder calls for tighter regulation, which would likely affect the advertising revenues of the social network company and other internet giants such as Google."

29 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Auto sector has always been in a 'tight situation,' strategist says

Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, discusses the auto sector and potential market risks.

28 Mar 2018 - IG Group

Global markets tune into China-US trade talks

Markets took fright as President Trump aimed $60 billion of annual tariffs at China. TS Lombard’s Jon Harrison explains how we came to this point, and the prospects for an amicable settlement. 

27 Mar 2018 - Bloomberg

TS Lombard's Granville Says Diplomat Expulsions Reflect a Reaction to Circumstantial Evidence

Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, discusses international relations after over 100 Russian envoys have been expelled globally. He speaks with Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." 

24 Mar 2018 - Barrons

The Unseen Forces Behind the Market’s Plunge

That 19th century model doesn’t come close to describing today’s economy, with its intricate supply chains that stretch across borders. Even a moderate rise in protectionism could disrupt these lengthy and complicated supply chains and thus the global economy, writes Dario Perkins, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard.

22 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Dow drops more than 700 points on trade fears, posts worst day since Feb. 8

"Trump's protectionism is making investors nervous," Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, said in a note Thursday. "Past experience suggests these policies are flawed, while even moderate trade barriers could disrupt today's complex global supply chains."

22 Mar 2018 - Reuters

Trump moves toward China tariffs in warning shot on technology transfer

“Tensions are likely to escalate further, even without a full-scale trade war. This could disrupt global supply chains and damage investor sentiment,” said Dario Perkins, head of global macroeconomics research at TS Lombard, a London-based economic consultancy.

20 Mar 2018 - South China Morning Post

Watch for a quarter-point interest rate increase this week by a Fed eager to show its talons

That is quite a move even if the rise in USD LIBOR is not an indicator of a wider crisis as analysts such as TS Lombard’s senior macro strategist Oliver Brennan have argued. Brennan’s view is that higher offshore US dollar borrowing costs should be seen as primarily a consequence of greenback repatriation related to Trump’s tax legislation.

20 Mar 2018 - Middle East Eye

Money flees Saudi Arabia at rapid pace

“Chances are we won’t see the effect of the capital outflow from that until this year,” says Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East-North Africa analyst at the financial firm TS Lombard in London. 

20 Mar 2018 - CNBC

What to watch for during President Trump's meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince

Christopher Granville of TS Lombard says economic development and US shale oil production will likely come up in today's meeting between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in addition to national security issues.

17 Mar 2018 - MarketWatch

This political-risk gauge just hit a 15-year high — and here’s what it means for the stock market

TS Lombard note in July from senior macrostrategist Oliver Brennan, writes that White House uncertainty has weighed the most on the greenback. “After six months of Trump, stocks are being made great again, but Russiagate is weighing on the dollar and yields,” Brennan wrote.

16 Mar 2018 - BBC Radio

Russia votes in presidential elections this weekend

Russia votes in presidential elections this weekend, with Vladimir Putin expected to secure a fourth term. We ask Christopher Granville from TS Lombard about the economic and political factors behind his success.

16 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Russian cash parked abroad may start flowing back home amid UK threats

Recently announced targeted sanctions from the U.S. Treasury Department and threats of asset freezes by the U.K. government are making some wealthy Russians nervous, said Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard.

15 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Britain expels 23 Russian diplomats

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the spy poisoning spat between the U.K. and Russia.

13 Mar 2018 - The Street

Why the February Jobs Report Is the Most Important Jobs Report of 2018

While the projected increase in wage growth would represent a slight tick downward from the January reading, it would add credence to the notion that wages are set for further gains, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at analysis firm TS Lombard.  "Everything says that wages are beginning to trend higher," Blitz said in a phone interview. "Given the continued expansion of jobs and the economy and the low level of unemployment, you can only assume upward pressure on wages going forward." Fed officials currently project three quarter-point rate increases this year, but TS Lombard's Blitz said he thinks upward wage pressure could spur the central bank to raise rates four times.

11 Mar 2018 - DPA International

China's President Xi Jinping gets green light for unlimited rule

Xi, who also serves as leader of the Communist Party and head of its Central Military Commission, has aimed to meld the party and the state more closely together in order "to provide China with the domestic political machine to achieve his global ambitions," said Jonathan Fenby, a researcher with TS Lombard in London.

07 Mar 2018 - Morningstar

Xi Jinping's Unlimited Rule Is New Wild Card For China's Economy

Xi's consolidation of power will add muscle to his current economic policies. However, the Communist Party's continuing prying into the inner workings of multinationals operating in China is likely to make life more testing for foreign investors, says Jonathan Fenby, a researcher at TS Lombard in London.

05 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Italian exit polls point to hung parliament

Italy’s market is in the red after yesterday’s election signaled a hung parliament. Constantine Fraser of TS Lombard gives his take.

05 Mar 2018 - Quartz

What China’s Xi Jinping wants with all that power

Another reason for Xi to remain in the presidential role is because the job is becoming more important than ever, partly thanks to his global ambitions. Xi “could hardly have made his globe-trotting round of state visits as head of the Party… but he also needed the post to have real resonance,” wrote Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at the TS Lombard research service.

04 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Saudi Arabia reform efforts, Aramco IPO may be complicated by Fed rate hike campaign

"In order to maintain the peg, the Saudi authorities have to move interest rates in lockstep with the Fed," Marcus Chenevix, a London-based MENA analyst with TS Lombard, told CNBC. "If they do not raise interest rates as the Fed raises rates, then the riyal becomes unattractive to hold because the dollar would give a higher rate of return than the riyal, while still being exchangeable for the same amount or riyals, it would be a huge incentive" for investors to bet against the riyal/dollar peg.

02 Mar 2018 - IG Group

Political uncertainty won’t help Italy’s recovery

Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at TS Lombard, talks to Victoria Scholar about political uncertainty and the economic recovery in Italy.

28 Feb 2018 - CNBC

New Fed Chair Powell is a refreshing change to Yellen

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, reacts to new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's debut testimony to Congress.

26 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

Power grab strengthens Xi’s influence on China economic reforms

The Chinese presidency may be less important within the Communist system than controlling the party or the military, but it is the role that is most visible to Chinese citizens as well as foreign nations. “His frequent foreign visits show he wants to put his personal stamp on the extension of Chinese influence globally,” says Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at the TS Lombard research service.

26 Feb 2018 - The Telegraph

Endowing his role with endless rule shows Xi's imperial ambitions

he early decades of China’s economic expansion and opening-up fostered a comforting feeling in Western circles that the world’s most populous nation would “become more like us” as it bred a middle class which would espouse democratic values. That illusion is now being demolished by a leader who has reverted to a traditional autocratic style of rule, underlined this week by a move to enable him to stay in office for as long as he wishes.

22 Feb 2018 - Barrons

Has the Fed “Put Option” Expired?

But Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, detected a change of tone in the minutes vis-à-vis the central bank’s relationship with the markets. He cites the following paragraph:

“Regulatory actions and improved risk management in recent years had put the financial system in a better position to withstand adverse shocks, such as a substantial decline in asset prices, than in the past. However, amid elevated asset valuations and an increased use of debt by nonfinancial corporations, several participants cautioned that imbalances in financial markets may begin to emerge as the economy continued to operate above potential. In this environment, increased use of leverage by nonbank financial institutions might be difficult to detect in a timely manner. It was also noted that the Committee should regularly reassess risks to the financial system and their implications for the economic outlook in light of the potential for changes in regulatory policies over time.”

22 Feb 2018 - CNBC

Nasdaq closes lower for fourth straight day, S&P 500 hangs on to slight gain

"The minutes convey a clear sense that inflation is more on their minds than the FOMC statement indicated," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note. "The minutes gave readers conviction that only a sea change will stay the Fed from four 25bp rate rises in 2018. One might think this trajectory puts the Fed behind economic activity, but market odds-setters still very much lag the Fed, pricing in only about a 25% chance of four hikes this year."

20 Feb 2018 - Reuters

Will de Guindos be a dove or a hawk?

Ultimately the key question boils down to whether he'll be a dove or a hawk and how could he tip the balance of power in Frankfurt. Research firm TS Lombard believes your best bet lies in the middle. "Without a strong background of his own in monetary policy, it is very possible de Guindos will turn out to be more neutral a voice – some might say a malleable one - on the executive board than the dovish Constancio," they write. If de Guindos gets picked, as it seems,, that would add pressure to appoint a northerner to replace Draghi, paving the way for a clearly hawkish German ECB presidency. "The most obvious German candidate is the controversial, hawkish head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann – but with or without him, a shift towards a less dovish executive board by end 2019 looks likely," TS Lombard adds.      

19 Feb 2018 - Barrons

The Ghost of Inflation Reappears

Looking more deeply at the January jump in CPI shows definite trends, according to Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Deflation in the prices of consumer goods we like to buy is ending; the rate of increase in the cost of things we have to buy either is rising, as for food and energy, or remains high, as for services or rent.

Consumers’ paychecks had been keeping up with rising rents and services costs, while prices of goods have been falling, Blitz continues. “With goods prices set to rise and rent showing no signs of slowing down (in the aggregate), consumer finances are set to be squeezed further,” he writes.

19 Feb 2018 - MarketWatch

Dollar steadies versus rivals in holiday-thinned trade

“Madrid has been pushing hard for [de Guindos], arguing that Spain is underrepresented at the top of Europe’s institutions,” wrote Constantine Fraser, political analyst at TS Lombard, in a note late last week.

18 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

China threatens to retaliate against US metals tariffs

“For the moment I think China will just put out harsher rhetoric,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at consultancy TS Lombard. “Agricultural sector retaliation is more likely since (China’s) food price inflation is low. The next possible step will be going on further with a soyabean and corn investigation,” he added.

12 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Treasury Bonds Weaken as Global Stocks Rally

“The global economy remains strong; inflation, while likely to accelerate somewhat this year, is still subdued; and liquidity is still ample, even though central banks are tightening policy at the margin,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, in a research note.

08 Feb 2018 - MarketWatch

Volatility aftershocks? Here’s what stock-market investors need to know

Andrea Cicione of TS Lombard saw no sign that risk-parity unwinding was a culprit in the recent selloff. “Risk parity indices have been flat since November 2017, while the S&P 500 was up 12%; exuberance in plain-vanilla equities, not risk parity strategies, is to blame,” he said in a Tuesday note.

07 Feb 2018 - Monocle Radio

Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic standing with the US may be putting UK hopes in jeopardy

Jonathan Fenby and Florence Biedermann join Monocle editor Andrew Tuck to discuss whether Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic standing with the US may be putting UK hopes in jeopardy. Plus: French labour laws attract new investment, the delicate challenge of relocating Westminster’s operations and the complex legacy of the man who put together Ikea.

06 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Saudi Campaign Seeks to Calm Investors Shaken by Anticorruption Drive

Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London, says the crackdown will reduce corruption and move the country “away from a confusing system of multiple and competing power centers to one powerful center. ”But Mr. Chenevix also says money managers he advises have been pulling money from Saudi assets, concerned by what they see as the opaqueness and volatility of local politics. “There won’t be a rapid return in confidence in Saudi Arabia,” he said.

06 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

Renminbi flies after Beijing removes shackles

One other wrinkle is the impact of a stronger renminbi on the rest of the world. Analysis by Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, suggests that the prices of China’s exports to the US have been trending downwards in dollar terms since 2011. However, export prices were essentially flat last year and, given the subsequent rally in the renminbi, Mr Zhuang believed Chinese export prices would break out of this trend this year, rising by about 2 per cent in dollar terms. Given the current market panic about the prospect of higher inflation, and thus faster monetary tightening, in the US, the likely role of the rebounding renminbi in pushing prices higher should not discounted.

06 Feb 2018 - Citywire

India budget could kill equity investment

Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at TS Lombard said while it is a dampener on sentiment, the move is also being seen as the government trying to increase as much tax revenue as it can before the elections. ‘The budget is very much like that. [The government is] saying that we need to increase spending, we need to do things for farmers and low-income groups and we are going to get the money from those who pay taxes,’ Deveshwar said. 

06 Feb 2018 - South China Morning Post

Hang on, how come President Trump doesn’t make a big deal about the Japanese yen?

“Since November 2016, the Chinese currency has appreciated 9.5 per cent against the US dollar,” wrote TS Lombard’s chief China economist Bo Zhuang on Friday.

06 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

Wall Street rebounds, S&P 500 has best day since Nov 2016

“Stop losses were probably closer to market levels than usual, as nervous investors were keen to protect the downside, said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard. “And hedge funds, who had the second highest exposure to equities since 2007, were probably forced to liquidate leveraged positions. Momentum-chasing algos probably did the rest.”

06 Feb 2018 - Citywire

Overnight Markets: US stocks halt selling spree to close higher

“We believe the selloff has mostly run its course and has created an opportunity to add risk,” said, Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

06 Feb 2018 - MarketWatch

Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average has suddenly become a hot mess

The market was overdue a pullback and rising yields provided the perfect excuse to trigger one. But a 4%+ daily drop like yesterday requires more than that. Technical factors helped accelerate the move, with several key support levels being broken on the day (including the 50d moving average). Stop losses were probably closer to market levels than usual, as nervous investors were keen to protect the downside. And hedge funds, who had the second highest exposure to equities since 2007, were probably forced to liquidate

02 Feb 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

See Four Hikes in 2018, Jobs Data Confirm Strength: Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist for TS Lombard, on today’s jobs data and economic outlook.

02 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Challenges on Inflation Policy, Tax Cut Loom as Powell Era Begins at Fed

“He understands what cheap money can do in the marketplace,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, a research firm. In 2006 and 2007, Fed officials were too slow to recognize bubbles by “narrowly viewing inflation as consumer prices only, and Powell won’t do that,” he said.

02 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Gained 200,000 Jobs in January as Wages Picked Up

January was the 88th consecutive month of job creation, the longest streak of continuous hiring on record and a testament to the durability of the economic expansion that began in mid-2009, even though the pace of overall economic growth has lagged behind historical levels. “You’re slowly getting back to a more normally functioning economy,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

01 Feb 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Markets Should Focus on Strength of Non-Dollar

The big story for markets right now is less the declining strength of the dollar, and more the relative strength of non-dollar, according to Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard. He also discussed trade and Trump’s tax plans with Anna Edwards and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

31 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg TV

Economist Blitz Says Trump's Presidency Is 'Almost Bipolar'

Steven Blitz, TS Lombard chief U.S. economist, discusses President Donald Trump's presidency with Ramy Inocencio on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." 

31 Jan 2018 - Le Monde

Financial markets: "The orchestra continues to play" ...

The good news is that "we are not yet in a bubble". The bad news is that  "all of its ingredients are together". Andrea Cicione, who is in charge of strategy at TS Lombard, an investment research firm, sums up the dilemma of investors at the beginning of 2018.

30 Jan 2018 - Reuters

The markets, Draghi and the euro: "Heads I win, tails you lose"?

Indeed, European monetary officials are maintaining an accommodating policy, arguing that inflationary pressures are weak, but they risk transforming the solid recovery of the euro zone economy into overheating, which will further support the euro, warns Shweta Singh, economist at TS Lombard.

29 Jan 2018 - FT Alphaville

Alpha agenda, the new Cold War edition

McMaster nailed the key point by describing China and Russia as “revisionist powers”. This marks a clear break with post-Cold War US foreign policy, says Christopher Granville, TS Lombard.

24 Jan 2018 - Reuters

Closing snapshot: European shares end higher

Despite the prospect of an end of quantitative easing, rising oil prices and a stronger euro, Shweta Singh, director global macro at TS Lombard, reckons there might be "more positive surprises in store" for the euro area. And this is thanks to ease of financing, strong consumer confidence, increasing capex and a broad-based recovery which looks "increasingly self-sustaining" and leaves room for more upgrades. 

18 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Remains Hidden as Government Pursues $100 Billion

“Personal wealth is extremely private there,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. “It’s no one’s business." “In most societies, wealth gets exposed because people want to expose who’s behind it,” said TS Lombard’s Chenevix. “But if the politicians are the wealthy, if wealth and power are the same thing, that political pressure doesn’t exist.”

17 Jan 2018 - Reuters

Euro surge threatens profitable bond trades

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard estimates, that Japanese investors can get a yield pick up of 25 basis points for German bunds, 52 basis points for French debt and 165 basis points for Italian bonds respectively. “That is far more than what investing in Japanese bonds can give them,” Cicione said. Ten-year yields in Japan JP10YT=RR were trading around 9 basis points on Wednesday.

17 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Charles Dumas Says the ECB Is in a Very Difficult Position

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses monetary policy from the European Central Bank. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

17 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Saudi Arabia pumps $2 billion into Yemen’s central bank

The move is an attempt to set up a "functioning and legitimate" Yemeni government, Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC in a phone interview Wednesday. Chevenix added that while he anticipated the deposit to be a one-off in terms of its "very large" size, Yemen could expect "continued support" from Riyadh in the future

16 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Why 2018 will not be another perfect year for stocks

Companies can also spend to cut costs, which many have avoided since the financial crisis. But the U.S. tax overhaul could be the trigger. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard, believes margins will hold together as companies faced with wage pressure will spend on investment. Capital expenditure (capex) these days, often means buying equipment for automation, reducing the need for as many workers, removing higher wage demands. The President Donald Trump administration has another view that the tax bill will simply create "jobs, jobs, jobs."

16 Jan 2018 - CNBC

France’s Macron ‘the man to watch’ in Davos for clues on where Europe is headed

TS Lombard's Fenby noted Macron's "ambitious plans" to reform Europe and the euro zone, but said domestic politics and reforms were at the top of Macron's agenda. "Macron's main priority is, of course, at home where he has set a three-year horizon for reform to have its impact," he said. "He started with the labor laws but now moves into the trickier matter of cutting the budget deficit. He sensibly puts stress on job training to cut unemployment." "Macron has often been accused of being the typical 'Davos man,' so this is his opportunity to show how he is using the positive international press to attract investment and improve the lives of those who perhaps didn't vote for him," Fenby said.

16 Jan 2018 - Financial News

Five big currency bets hedge funds will make in 2018

“A year ago, [quantitative easing] was the major driver of asset markets, but now its influence is beginning to diminish other macro drivers will come to the fore. This means divergence and volatility will rise, which is good for hedge funds,” said Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard. He added that he expected hedge funds to trade more currencies this year.

11 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Why falling bond prices are traditionally seen as bad for stocks

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC Wednesday: "Rising yields, if they are accompanied by an accelerating economy, an accelerating income and stronger employment, they are not necessarily going to cut off mortgages and cut off growth." In his eyes, as long as the economy keeps growing, companies will have money to pay their employees and invest. Thus, the stock market shouldn't necessarily worry too much with how yields are moving.

11 Jan 2018 - Squawk Box CNBC

TS Lombard: Global financing conditions to remain supportive

Global liquidity will remain "substantially abundant" even as central banks tighten their policy, Shweta Singh, director of global macro at TS Lombard, said.

10 Jan 2018 - CNBC

2018 should be another happy year for US stocks

The rise of U.S. equities has coincided with increased household net worth and the “rise of the millennials,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said.

10 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Fed will follow the economy, economist says

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. economy and government bonds.

08 Jan 2018 - CNBC

If you believe in the government, Chinese consumer stocks will do well this year: TS Lombard

Chinese consumer stocks should do "really well" in 2018, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Tuesday.

08 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Economists still gloomy on post-Brexit economy

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard: Feel about the same as 12 months ago. Both sides of the Leave/Remain argument grossly exaggerate the long-term difference.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard: More optimistic than 12 months ago. With a transitional deal increasingly likely the UK can at least avoid “falling off the cliff edge” and avoid reverting to WTO rules. The agreement between the UK and the EU on the Irish border and parliament’s vote to demand a meaningful vote on Brexit terms also point to [a] rising likelihood of a “softer” Brexit outcome.

06 Jan 2018 - MarketWatch

Is inflation ever coming back?

“Wages and prices generally lag real growth. Sustained real growth in 2018 should consequently shift wages to a higher trajectory,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for T.S. Lombard, after December’s rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee. “Wages could in fact accelerate more quickly than markets are pricing in, considering how the economy is picking up with labor-market supply at its tightest point for this cycle. The prospect of a quick upturn in wages is reason enough for [an increase in the federal funds rate], even though measured inflation remains low.”

05 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

A major S&P ratio has a whiff of 1929. Is this a bubble yet?

The fear of missing out will be especially potent in keeping the momentum going. In a study of S&P 500 peaks from 1929 to 2007, TS Lombard showed that market returns tend to accelerate in the six months before the market rolls over. Missing out on the last year of each bull market would have cost investors on average 20 per cent of gains.

04 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Minite Mystery Continues

Yesterday’s Fed minute release triggered a discussion about whether or not inflation is the main driver of whether the Fed raises and how fast says Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard. However, he told Daybreak Europe’s Guy Johnson and Anna Edwards that what markets should really be focusing on is the debate on hiking attributable to financial stability. He added that the role of power politics within the FOMC, once Yellen departs, adds to the mystery of Fed trajectory in the coming year.

04 Jan 2018 - The Guardian

Dow and FTSE hit record highs as global stock market surges continue

The chief risk for this year could also be a “melt-up,” according to economists at TS Lombard, who warn shares may rise out of kilter with reality before a sharp meltdown.

04 Jan 2018 - The Telegraph

U.S. growth and the 'euroboom' are catalysts for global upswing

Shweta Singh, head of global macro at TS Lombard, calls it a “euroboom” and points to strong surveys that indicate “its super-charged economic expansion [is] gaining further momentum”. “The broad-based strength reinforces our view that eurozone expansion is broadening out in terms of the growth drivers and that it bodes well for the sustainability and strength of economic expansion,” she says. “The recovery is spreading out geographically as well, reaching to the erstwhile weaker economies.”

03 Jan 2018 - Nikkei Asian Review

Will China suffer an economic shock in 2018?

The challenge is not short-term turmoil but the long-term costs of Xi's authoritarianism says Jonathan Fenby, Chairman China Team at TS Lombard.

03 Jan 2018 - Middle East Eye

US jury finds Turkish banker guilty of helping Iran dodge sanctions

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to avoid the Turkish lira and possibly depress the country's currency even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a MENA and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London

03 Jan 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Upstart Parties Write New Political Playbook in Europe

With a grand coalition, “the perception would be very ugly. When they inevitably do things you disapprove of, where do you go?” says Constantine Fraser, political analyst with TS Lombard. “If the mainstream parties are partners in the same government, opposition will go to the populists.”

02 Jan 2018 - The Telegraph

Can the global economic recovery be sustained?

Shweta Singh, head of global macro at TS Lombard, calls it a “euroboom” and points to strong surveys that indicate “its super-charged economic expansion [is] gaining further momentum”. “The broad-based strength reinforces our view that eurozone expansion is broadening out in terms of the growth drivers and that it bodes well for the sustainability and strength of economic expansion,” she says. “The recovery is spreading out geographically as well, reaching to the erstwhile weaker economies.”

02 Jan 2018 - CNBC

TS Lombard: Robust global growth softening China’s slowdown

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his economic outlook for the country in 2018.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Gloomy growth projections cloud hopes for UK economy

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, TS Lombard About 1.5 per cent, vs. US and EA both 2-2.5 per cent. The UK needed to rebalance after the 6 per cent-of-GDP current account blowout under George Osborne, and the Brexit vote secured the necessary devaluation, cutting real consumer incomes and thus spending; but Brexit uncertainties are also inhibiting the capex response to the stronger competitiveness and profitability.
Michelle Lam, Senior Economist, TS Lombard I expect the UK to grow at 1.6 per cent in 2018. That is a tad faster than 2017, but still slower than the euro area and the US. Strong global growth, slower pace of austerity and an end to real income squeeze are reasons why I think growth of the UK economy will hold up next year.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

UK wage growth expected to increase but to remain modest

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard We expect wage inflation to reach 3 per cent by end-2018, a mild acceleration in nominal terms, rather more in real terms. This assumes either a continued subdued public mood about Brexit or restrictive interest rate action by the Bank of England sooner than expected.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard I expect British workers will get a pay rise of 3 per cent in 2018. It is true that the relationship of wage inflation and unemployment (also known as the Phillips curve) has become less apparent due to globalisation and technological advancement. But I believe demand for hiring could remain rather resilient as firms hope to substitute labour for capital due to Brexit uncertainty. Meanwhile, slower migration from the EU, either due to Brexit or sterling depreciation, would keep the labour market tight. These factors should keep wage growth on a modest uptrend next year.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Economists divided over prospects of UK interest rate rise

There are also some indications that wage growth is picking up following a fall in unemployment to a 42-year low of 4.3 per cent: “As long as wage growth is improving, policy normalisation is the right thing to do,” said Michelle Lam of TS Lombard.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard I expect the BoE to hike once in next year, probably in August. If wage growth quickens faster than expected, say to 3 per cent in spring 2018, and holds up, the BoE could even raise interest rates twice, beginning from May. As long as wage growth is improving, policy normalisation is the right thing to do. The benefits of keeping policy loose are probably fairly limited. Right now, businesses are holding up capital expenditure because of Brexit uncertainty, not because of tight credit conditions or costs of financing.


28 Dec 2017 - IG Group

Are central banks following the wrong policy and is this a risk for 2018?

The world’s major central banks are pursuing the wrong policy and the obsession with a 2% inflation target is a mistake, according to Charles Dumas, TS Lombard chief economist. He tells IGTV that this could have repercussions in the years to come.

26 Dec 2017 - South China Morning Post

Why 2018 could be the year of the euro

The euro zone is experiencing a “super-charged economic expansion,” wrote Shweta Singh, director of global macro at London-based TS Lombard in mid-December. That expansion surely owes much to the ECB’s continuing attempts to kick-start inflation via its adherence to ultra-accommodative monetary policy settings. The flash euro zone composite purchasing managers’ index has “surged to 58.0, the highest since 2011,” TS Lombard wrote, with the manufacturing sector “leading the bounce, strengthening to 60.1 which is the most optimistic reading on record.” With the good economic news from the euro zone seemingly broad-based, why wouldn’t investors want a piece of that euro-denominated action?

26 Dec 2017 - CGTN

Multiple factors rally US stock markets in 2017

“Europe is turning, the emerging markets are turning, and a larger percentage of S&P revenue comes from global sources as opposed to say 10, 15, certainly 20, 25 years ago,” Steven Blitz, Chief Economist at TS Lombard said.

22 Dec 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Could the Capex fit?

Steven Blitz of TS Lombard points out that growth in the sales that companies generate per employee has been becalmed, almost totally static, throughout the post-crisis recovery.

22 Dec 2017 - Citywire

Foreign investors sceptical about Indian equities

‘The developments in China probably had some impact on this, as well as the domestic situation in India,’ said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging market macro strategy at research firm TS Lombard. ‘Up until the middle of the year, India and China were moving in sync in a very positive emerging market sentiment globally. But from mid-year we had two things - GST implementation in India and in China, there was a strong improvement in global sentiment.’
However, TS Lombard’s director India research, Shumita Deveshwar, is optimistic on the market for next year despite political risks in the last year of Modi’s first term and the potential for oil prices to rear their ugly head. ‘These have been painful adjustments but the government has gone ahead and done them. That's why the mood is upbeat because maybe the government is going to do further reforms, especially if Modi gets re-elected in 2019,’ she said.

20 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Power, rivalry and missiles: The dangers of Saudi Arabia and Iran's 'unpredictable' conflict in Yemen

This is “the first time in a very long time” that there hasn’t been an “external arbiter in the Middle East” defining diplomatic relationships, Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, said.

20 Dec 2017 - Financial Times Shortview

Krona losing appeal as ‘carry trade’ currency

Oliver Brennan, at TS Lombard, thinks that the franc is more or less at its fundamental fair value. The yen and the krona are still below their fair value, deliberately weakened by central banks attempting to stave off deflation.

17 Dec 2017 - Neue Zürcher Zeitung

The normalization of monetary policy and its consequences

How long could the central banks, in particular the ECB, still control the development, asks Charles Dumas of TS Lombard. The true aim of the ECB's monetary policy is the exchange rate. But now the economy of the euro zone has developed so strongly and the foreign trade surplus has become so large that the central bank can do little against an appreciation of the euro. If it continues the excessively loose monetary policy, the euro zone's economy and foreign trade surplus continue to grow. But if it removes the stimulus, the bond yields rise. In both cases, the result is a higher euro exchange rate.

16 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Business investment on hot streak since Trump elected — and it may keep sizzling

“I think you are going to see more of an increase in capital spending for businesses,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

15 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Millennials spark shopping revolution that’s creating new winners, losers in retail land

The influence of millennials has been especially pronounced in the retail business. “Their fingerprints are increasingly everywhere,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard. “Millennials are the first generation in which internet shopping is ingrained in their DNA,” said Blitz, who’s been tracking the spending of baby boomers and millennials.  “The 32-year-old is the more aggressive acquire of assets,” Blitz noted. “They are filling up their closets. Baby boomers are emptying theirs.” Blitz says spending on discretionary goods — the things people want to buy — clearly show the shift under way. As millennials become a bigger part of the workforce, sales have risen for restaurants, sporting goods, books, hobby items and home furnishings, among other things. He counsels investors to put their money into the areas where “the wallet share is going.”

14 Dec 2017 - FastFT

Charts of the Year: Farewell to the world of one trade?

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, notes that correlations between markets accounted for less than half of the variability in developed-market bonds before quantitative easing began. The figure rose above 70 per cent this year. With QE poised to reach a tipping point late next year, Mr Brennan echoes many other investors and observers with his concern that bond-market volatility could resurface. Good news if you like break-out trading themes. Less good if you like dull predictability.

13 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Why Donald Trump's Jerusalem move might have made Russia a lot stronger

Putin has established Russia as perhaps the single-most important external actor in the Middle East," Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Wednesday. Granville agreed that Russia could assert itself as a key player in a regional peace process, although tensions are running so high between Israel and Palestine, let alone the wider Islamic world, that the process looks unlikely to see progress any time soon. "Russia is certainly better positioned to have constructive contacts with different countries and players on both sides of the barricades… wheras the U.S. has cast in its lot — lock, stock and barrel — with one side, broadly that of Saudi Arabia and Israel," he said. Granville said that while Russia was in a good position to deal with all parties involved, it might not want the difficult role of peacemaker, or "honest broker," in peace talks. "Russia is better placed to deal with everyone — although the role of an 'honest broker' in the peace process is an invidious and somewhat doomed role," he said.

13 Dec 2017 - Middle East Eye

Turkish police summon FBI official over US trial

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to avoid the Turkish lira and possibly depress the country's currency even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East, North African and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London.

12 Dec 2017 - South China Morning Post

The tide of US dollar funding may return in 2018, but at higher cost than previously

Oliver Brennan, Macro Strategist at TS Lombard in London, wrote that the “year-end turn has clearly increased Europeans’ demand for dollars,” but cautioned that “there are structural factors which mean the squeeze can be painful and that the basis swap may not bounce back all the way.” So a rising tide of US dollar liquidity might return in 2018, but access to that liquidity pool could be more expensive than previously. One of the structural factors highlighted by TS Lombard is the introduction in January of rules under the Basel III regulations that urge banks to hold collateral “against [over-the-counter] transactions including FX swaps [which] will on average increase the cost of FX swaps and therefore widen the euro basis.”

11 Dec 2017 - IG Group

TS Lombard: Another German Election Would Not Worry Markets

While Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is still seeking to form a coalition government, TS Lombard analyst, Constantine Fraser, says markets would take a minority government, or even a new election, in their stride.

09 Dec 2017 - Al Jazeera

Oman moves closer to a post-oil economy

Education is a critical part of this equation, as many citizens lack the type of technical knowledge needed to kick-start certain industries, noted Marcus Chenevix, a MENA analyst with the London-based economics consultancy TS Lombard. "Oman has a great deal of potential to diversify, probably in many ways more than its neighbours, especially in terms of tourism and in terms of the natural resources that Oman has available - things like access to an enormous fishery," he told Al Jazeera. However, the focus on areas such as manufacturing may be problematic, as the country "has no real institutional memory of having that kind of industry and it's very hard to develop that from scratch", Chenevix said.

07 Dec 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Why Merkel is a victim of her own success

Constantine Fraser, European political research analyst at TS Lombard, speaks about ongoing attempts to form the next German coalition government.

07 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Household wealth climbs $1.7 trillion on stock market, house price advances

“That the lion’s share of the gains boosting household net worth were in equities, and financial assets more generally, rather than in real estate is another reason why leverage remains low. Households historically borrow more off of improved home values than rising wealth from stocks and bonds – at least before 2008,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

07 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher; tech notches 3-day winning streak

"The House tax plan looks like a plan to us; the Senate version looks more like an agglomeration of bits and pieces designed to either capture needed votes (which it did) and/or be bargaining chips in negotiating with the House," Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard said in a note this week.

05 Dec 2017 - CNBC

What's next in Yemen after the assassination of former president Saleh?

Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC that with Saleh dead, Iran was likely to be able to consolidate its influence in Yemen and that the war was not likely to end any time soon. "It's generally bad news for Yemen and probably good news for Iran," he said Tuesday. "I think we'll see the step-up of Iranian involvement in Yemen now and it will become very intense." TS Lombard's Chenevix said that Saudi Arabia could step up its bombing campaign against the Houthis but that Saleh's death, ultimately, had helped Iran because it simplified "the anti-Hadi cause" represented by Houthi rebels, taking away the forces loyal to Saleh. "Now that Saleh is temporarily out of the picture, unless we see his son try to come back (as Saleh's successor), the Iranian proxy is now the only opposition to Hadi. They are the sole patron to the anti-Hadi government," Chenevix said. "Saleh's death now pushes Houthi rebels into needing more Iranian support too," he added.

04 Dec 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Why Central Banks Continue to Put Asset Prices Out of Whack

Meanwhile, central-bank policy elsewhere, particularly in Japan, is in the mix. Since the Bank of Japan is holding yields down, Japanese investors need to look elsewhere for returns. But the cost to hedge against moves in the dollar has risen, making U.S. bonds less attractive, notes TS Lombard. European bonds may be benefiting from Japanese purchases, holding yields down but supporting the euro.

04 Dec 2017 - The Telegraph

US tax shake-up risks a dollar shortage and a global funding shock

Steve Blitz from TS Lombard said there will not be enough fiscal stimulus to move the needle, and it is far from clear what the dollar will do given that Europe and Japan are both rebounding. Complex hedging practices in the derivatives markets suggest that the euro will strengthen against the dollar next year. The tax holiday for US companies in 2005 did lead to a 15pc rise in the dollar index (DXY) over a fifteen month period but the circumstances were very different. Mr Blitz said it was a zero-tax holiday and it was only offered for a short window of time. The Republican package today is open-ended and entails a 14pc tax. It may be a damp squib.

01 Dec 2017 - Reuters

Sterling slips from two-month high on Irish border worries

“This week’s sterling bounce on reports that the UK has accepted a higher financial divorce settlement with the EU seems based on the false assumption that the way is now clear for the European Council on 14-15 December to authorise moving on to the next phase of the Brexit process,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at investment research firm TS Lombard. “To get to that next stage (the transitional deal), however, two further agreements are required. One – on citizens’ rights – looks relatively easy. The same cannot be said of the other – on the Irish border,” he added.

01 Dec 2017 - Middle East Eye

US-Iran sanctions trial may hamper Turkey's struggling economy

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to flee the Turkish lira and possibly send the country's currency down even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East, North African and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London. "This case has the capacity to seriously damage relations between Turkey and the US," said a recent report from TS Lombard. "From a US perspective, Turkey has been working to subvert American interests by secretly doing business with an enemy and is now insulting the American Judiciary and threatening American officials."  The impact on the lira has the potential to be swift, possibly pushing it past 4 lira to the US dollar, according the Lombard report.

30 Nov 2017 - The Epoch Times

The Cracks in China’s Economy

“New restrictions on the resale of property and fading support from shantytown redevelopment will keep weighing on housing sales. This spells further downside for residential investment growth,” wrote research firm TS Lombard, in a report.

27 Nov 2017 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Mixed, Weighed Down by Energy Shares

Much of the recent selloff in Asian shares has come from companies that have already posted strong gains this year, said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, noting investors are questioning whether they are willing to pay up front for all the growth that these companies will deliver. "But we haven't seen anything for the moment that worries us," he said, noting fundamentally, the outlook for the economy and global equities remains sound and investors generally feel they can't afford to miss out on this market.

22 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Could Saudi Arabia and Iran really go to war?

Marcus Chevenix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC that Saudi Arabia's foreign policies, under the aegis of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, are hard to understand. "Domestically his (Mohammed bin Salman's) actions are radical but comprehensible, but on a foreign stage they're very hard to make sense of at all," Chevenix said. "His intervention in Yemen was rash yet we could at least see what he was trying to do. His intervention in Qatar was, yet again, maybe a little reckless maybe a little quick but it was certainly effective against Qatar. But in Lebanon it's really hard to see what this does for him at all." The analyst believes that it might have been a "reactive move" aimed at bringing down the coalition government of Lebanon to somehow destabilize the position of Hezbollah. He perceived it as a pushback against Iran by whatever means available, but suggested that war was not currently a possibility. "It's hard to see where Saudi Arabia could get to a position where its actions were intolerable to the Iranians. Iranian actions are already intolerable to Saudi Arabia, we know that, but the Saudi Arabians struggle to really find a way to aggravate Iran, that's why we're not looking at a hot war situation right now," he told CNBC.

21 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

US yield curve hits its flattest point since November 2007

Some analysts and investors are perturbed, and in a note to clients, TS Lombard said this new conundrum could have important implications for the outlook for markets in the coming year: “With the yield curve continuing to flatten, some investors are talking about the curve inverting in 2018, traditionally a leading recession signal. Others disagree, arguing we are on the brink of a dangerous 1994-style selloff. The resolution of this debate will have a powerful influence on a wide range of global asset prices.”

20 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Hard to understand Saudi crown prince's policy on Lebanon

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the intricacies of Saudi Arabia's relationship with its Middle Eastern neighbors.

20 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

The Modi magic behind India’s unstoppable rally

“There is a bit of a disconnect between what is happening on the ground and the hype being created in the markets right now,” says Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at Trusted Sources. 

18 Nov 2017 - MarketWatch

Why this U.S. recession signal is probably throwing off a false alarm

Dario Perkins, a senior economist at TS Lombard, contends the Fed has effectively outsourced control of when to raise interest rates to bond markets. If so, he argues in a new report, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates as much or as many times as the central bank has indicated. “This is an odd situation because it suggests central banks are now ‘rate takers’ rather than ‘rate setters,’ ” he wrote. Only a sharp rise in inflation itself or inflation-adjusted bond yields, he added, will force the Fed to be more aggressive.

17 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

Doubts over tax cuts leave dollar drifting lower

“Some investors are talking about the curve inverting in 2018, traditionally a leading recession signal,” said Dario Perkins at TS Lombard. “Others disagree, arguing we are on the brink of a dangerous 1994-style sell-off. The resolution of this debate will have a powerful influence on a wide range of global asset prices.”

15 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Investors re-price political risk in Middle East bond market

“This is a repricing of systemic political risk. Just as we saw with Qatar, this will not be a short-term bounce in yields, but a long-term step up to a slightly higher risk bracket,” said Marcus Chenevix, regional analyst at TS Lombard.

12 Nov 2017 - The Street

Saudi Monarch's Purge Gets Cynical Nod From Foreign Investors

"For investors who don't know Saudi Arabia so well, this news will be a rude awakening to the fact that Saudi politics are actually quite unstable," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at the London-based economics consultancy TS Lombard. "But for investors who know the kingdom well, they'll see this as a positive sign for long-term reform." Those arrested, according to TS Lombard's Chenevix, primarily hail from the city of Jeddah on the Red Sea, a rival commercial and power center to the central capital of Riyadh. Prince Mohammed announced last month that the country planned to spend $500 billion -- roughly equivalent to Sweden's gross national product -- to erect a brand-new mega-city on the Red Sea.

09 Nov 2017 - Bloomberg Businessweek

How the ‘Warren Buffett of Arabia’ Built His Fortune

Demanding and conscious of appearances—including his standing on global rich lists—Alwaleed has had “something of a mixed reputation” outside the kingdom, says Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. “International investors see him as a man who talks a very big game and sometimes performed, but often didn’t,” he says. 

07 Nov 2017 - Expansion

The Ibex is the cheapest European Stock Exchange

TS Lombard, one of the leading independent analysis houses in the City, has been located on the first of these sides. In a note to investors, he recommends investors to bet on Spain, hoping that a next solution to the Catalan debate will allow Spanish parquet to gain ground lost during the last months in front of other places. TS Lombard predicts a strong rise until the end of the year of the Ibex 35, recovering the 13% that has been left in front of the Italian Stock Exchange since the summer. TS Lombard predicts that the Spanish index will reach 11,500 points, from the current 10,300 points.

"The Ibex is the cheapest exchange in the euro zone," says Oliver Brennan, market analyst at TS Lombard. The PER (number of times the price of the listed companies contains annual profits) is among the lowest in the developed countries, according to the report. "The weakness of recent months was caused by falls in six stocks, mainly banks, and is likely to recover now thanks to greater political clarity."

07 Nov 2017 - The Washington Post

Here’s what the Saudi royal purge means for investors

“The price of oil is spiking because of market dynamics, not because people are genuinely worried about the stability of Saudi Arabia,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst with TS Lombard. “What this is, is a turn back to absolute rule by one man and away from rule by princes. That is not such a bad idea. In an absolute monarchy that does not have constitutionally guaranteed rights, it is better for our business clients. There is a single ruler making single rules rather than answering to a whole class of princes.”

Chenevix, the TS Lombard analyst, said the corruption crackdown will definitely affect investment. “As we saw with the Qatar crisis, as the controversy comes to the surface, investors will realize the political risk of the Gulf coast states,” he said. Last summer, several counties including Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed trade and travel bans, alleging that Qatar was a supporter of terrorism. Chenevix said fixed-income investors will see a decline in Saudi bonds. “Your fixed-income assets in Saudi Arabia will be worth less,” he said, “because basically they have been underpricing political risk.”

06 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Saudi stocks hit by political purge, Gulf feels the chill

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard called Alwaleed bin Talal’s arrest “hugely concerning”. “What it tells investors is that Saudi politics can’t be ignored. And that’s worrying because Saudi politics is a black box,” he said

06 Nov 2017 - Bloomberg

Spain’s Economy Wobbles as Catalonia Uncertainty Takes a Toll

Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London, said “political hullaballoo over Catalonia has taken its toll,” and the softer services activity tallies with reports about a “sharp drop in tourist-related activity.” 

06 Nov 2017 - BBC Business News

Saudi billionaire Alwaleed's arrest rattles investors

Investors are "extremely concerned by the weekend's events and we'll see further falls on Kingdom Holding in particular as it's very hard to define what the company is without Prince Alwaleed," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard.

06 Nov 2017 - Evening Standard

Three signs that markets are heading for a fall

Charles Dumas at TS Lombard asked this question: “With the S&P at 2580, which is more likely over the next 12 months: 3000 or 2160?” His answer was that there are at least three reasons in the short term why the risk of prices heading upwards to form a bubble were greater the downside bear risk of prices collapsing. One was that the world economy was strong, with Europe now adding to demand from the US and China to generate synchronised growth for the first time this century. The second was that commentators were, on the whole, still defensive, advancing reasons for the market to sell off despite there being buying power from investors. And the third was that the combination of very low underlying inflation rates in the US, Europe and Japan, coupled with central banks’ desire to push inflation to 2% was likely to brew a bubble.

06 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Reform or risk? Saudi Arabia investors try to read the runes

“This is about political instability, not about corruption,” said Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, adding the arrest of Prince Alwaleed was “hugely concerning”. “What it tells investors is that Saudi politics can’t be ignored. And that’s worrying because Saudi politics is a black box.”

06 Nov 2017 - South China Morning Post

Why the Fed is likely to raise interest rates faster than you think

TS Lombard’s US Watch, penned on October 29 by their chief US economist Stephen Blitz and their head of strategy, Andrea Cicione, gave an evaluation of the direction of the US economy that should lead the Fed to “raise policy rates in December, March and June” pushing the Fed funds rate to 2 per cent.

06 Nov 2017 - Al Jazeera

Why Saudi arrests are long-term positive but seriously raise short-term risk

Marcus Chenevix, MENA Analyst, on why Saudi arrests are long-term positive but seriously raise short-term risk. (starting at 3.30min)

02 Nov 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Stocks Indexes Close Largely Unchanged After Tax Plan Is Unveiled

“A lot of what’s in this plan are bargaining positions; we have to see how the final bill morphs as time goes forward,” Steven Blitz, chief United States economist with TS Lombard, said. “There’s a lot of horse trading to come, so an overreaction doesn’t make a lot of sense.”

02 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Dow closes at record high in wild session after release of tax reform bill, Powell nomination

"Nothing is easy, however, and there is still tension over what tax provisions can be limited or eliminated to offset aggressive cuts in marginal corporate and personal rates. A balance will need to be struck," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.

02 Nov 2017 - Middle East Eye

Oil giant Total questions Saudi reform drive

Any significant upward move in production could bring the prices even further down, according to a recent report from TS Lombard. “They can’t get any more money from oil,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard in London, in August. “Saudi is stuck with regard to oil production.”

01 Nov 2017 - The Independent

Although it might not feel like it, we're experiencing a global financial boom – and the bubble is due to burst soon

A survey of US investors last month showed that more than 60 per cent expected shares to be higher in a year’s time than they are now. A new paper by Charles Dumas at TS Lombard explains why. His argument is that there are three big drivers that make the upside more likely than the down. First there is the synchronised recovery noted above. Second, while most commentators are warning about a fall, investors have buying power – and had they listened to the warnings they would have lost out on a 25 per cent rise in share prices over the past two years. Third, the underlying inflation rate in the US, Europe and Japan is still very low. So the central bank commitment to pushing inflation up to 2 per cent will keep them pumping out the money that will fuel the boom.

01 Nov 2017 - Reuters

U.S. factory activity index eases off 13-1/2-year high

“Hiring is strong and evidence continues to accumulate that the economy is beginning to gain momentum heading into year-end,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

01 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: FOMZzzzzzzz

This comment from TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz captures the mood well: The nation’s growth rate has been upgraded to “solid” from moderate, underpinned by sustained “moderate” growth in household spending and acknowledgement again that business capex “has picked up”. This same phrase was used six weeks ago. Does this mean capex has picked up further? Based on the data, we would say yes. What then holds the Fed (Yellen) back with policy rates still set below core inflation? Simply put “. . . inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft. On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2 percent.”  What then to make of all this? We knew going in the Fed wasn’t going to do anything, so no disappointment there. The upgrading of growth indicates to us that the Fed goes in December. Beyond that, the Yellen doctrine (holding back policy rates while waiting for inflation to rise even though its natural rate appears to be well below 2%) has all the markings of the same mistake Bernanke made in the last cycle – namely ignoring asset inflation because price inflation was well behaved. We could get more exercised about this if Yellen was going to continue as Fed Chair. She isn’t. For all intent and purposes, this makes the statement more swan song than road map -- especially if its Powell and therefore sitting in the room when the next couple of statements are crafted. Fed goes in December, March and June.

31 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Dumas Says China Growth Has Been Above Trend

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, and Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, discuss economic data from China and overall outlook for the country. They speak with Nejra Cehic on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Economist Dumas Questions Brexit's Market Significance

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the market significance of Brexit. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 Oct 2017 - MarketWatch

Why the stock-market rally may be entering the anxiety-driven stage

For institutional investors, “missing the upside…could anger boards and trustees,” wrote Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note titled, “S&P 3,000?—a big upside for the big ‘risk.’”

31 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Jerome? OK, Jerome

John Authers’ Note today gives Charles Dumas credit for his brave and timely stock market call in March 2009 and highlights his bullish call on US stocks now.

"Charles Dumas of TS Lombard has a reputation as a contrarian, and as something of a bearish curmudgeon. But on Tuesday he produced a note clearly stating that he saw more risk of a bullish "melt-up" than of an imminent bear market. Headline: S&P 3,000 - a big upside the big 'risk'."

27 Oct 2017 - MarketWatch

GDP grows at stronger-than-forecast 3% rate in third quarter

“If the point of looking at Q3 data is to confirm whether the Fed is on track for a series of quarterly 25bp increases in policy rates, consider the point was made,” added Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

26 Oct 2017 - Citywire Asia

Financial reforms in China unlikely

China’s financial reforms are unlikely to be a priority in President Xi Jinping’s second five-year term, says London-based TS Lombard. The research firm noted in its latest China Watch report that despite the Chinese central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan’s call for a more market-oriented economy, China’s top leadership has learnt the lessons from poor execution of financial reforms back in 2015, which resulted in the country’s equity bubble burst. Chief emerging markets (EM) economist Lawrence Brainard said, ‘This has convinced China’s top leadership that more, not fewer, controls are needed at present.’

26 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

ECB Slows Asset Purchases as Draghi Heads for Stimulus Exit

“The door is left open to extend the asset-purchase program yet again,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “Though the likelihood of this happening for a fourth time looks rather lower now for various reasons, including the positive economic outlook.”

25 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

European Central Bank divided over wisdom of declaring end to QE

“The closer the ECB gets to stopping QE altogether, the more the market will focus on a rise in interest rates,” adds Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard, a research firm. “If that leads to more currency strength, as seems likely, then the downward pressure on core inflation creates a headache for the ECB.”

25 Oct 2017 - Monocle

Xi Jinping’s ambitions for himself and China's Communist party

Jonathan Fenby speaks on Monocle Radio: Are senior Republicans plotting to remove President Trump? We also discuss Xi Jinping’s ambitions for himself and China's Communist party and remember Hollywood's greatest speeches.

24 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

European Central Bank’s decision to reduce asset purchases not a true indicator of bloc’s economic health

“The longer the ECB takes to pare back its net asset purchases to zero, the further into the distance the subsequent steps in the normalisation process become”, as Ken Wattret, the managing director of global macro at investment research company TS Lombard, wrote this month.

19 Oct 2017 - Spectator

Xi Jinping is not a reformer but China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao

How the new emperor will use his second term — and perhaps a third to follow — to assert himself

19 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Making the Case for Jay Powell as Next Fed Chair

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, and Bloomberg Intelligence's Yelena Shulyatyeva discuss the race to be next Fed chair and their outlook for policy moves next year. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." 

18 Oct 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Xi’s authority likely to stretch beyond second term

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his view on Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the Communist Party Congress.

17 Oct 2017 - US News

If Precious Metals Rally, Then Pick Silver

"What has been propping up gold is geopolitics and Trump's tweets," says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard in London.

13 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China is tackling its debt problem

According to the opinion of the economists of the research house TS Lombard, China has clearly entered a new cycle after the previous credit boom. For example, the growth of the money M2 this year has fallen below 10% for the first time in two decades. This economic-political change of times takes place against the backdrop of a stock market crash, which is only twenty months away, a massive capital inflow abroad and collapsing private investments.

11 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China's stock exchanges under the spell of politics

"The markets should eat before the party congress," a researcher from TS Lombard said. The Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have shown performances in the past few months that were among the best in the world. Thus, the Hong Kong Hang Seng has increased by 3.3% in the previous week, which is a plus of 29% since the beginning of the year.

11 Oct 2017 - Evening Standard

Anthony Hilton: Pension funds must start thinking politically

Share prices are indeed high by historic measures but, as TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins noted in a recent podcast, interest rates are also now recognised as likely to be permanently lower that they were a decade or more ago. Financial markets have adjusted to this change and the demand for higher-yielding equities has increased and would have done anyway, regardless of what central banks are doing.

09 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

Fenby Says Rajoy Will Not Give Way to Catalonia

Jonathan Fenby, director at TS Lombard, discusses the possibility of Catalonia's independence from Spain. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

09 Oct 2017 - Le Figaro

Catalonia: crucial day on Tuesday for independence

A purely symbolic statement or a simple call for new regional elections would strengthen the government of Mariano Rajoy. "If it ignores its own referendum, the dynamics behind the Catalan independence would be dramatically dwarfed," said TS Lombard. "But ultimately, he will be forced to continue the dynamics of confrontation and escalation" in which he finds himself.

06 Oct 2017 - CNBC

Why Italy, and not Spain, is the real risk that investors should be worrying about

"Beyond Catalonia, it is the Italian election we are concerned about," Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, told CNBC Thursday. Andrea underlined that the rising presence of populist parties is a risk for Italy's fiscal policy, given their policies to increase spending. 

05 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

Russian oligarch’s latest venture draws US$500m from CEFC’s sister company AnAn Group

“The Rosneft and EN+ deals are likely linked as a package ... it is a good opportunity for China to step up its involvement in and ownership of Russian natural resources,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, the chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners, who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

03 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

How global geopolitical forces play in a Chinese private firm’s favour in the purchase of key Russian jewel energy asset

Some analysts believe the 14 per cent stake in the world’s largest listed oil firm by output was a result of political consideration on Beijing’s part. “National oil companies had genuine concerns about getting closely involved with a company subject to United States’ sanctions, which could have backfired on them,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

02 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Optim-ISM

FT’s daily newsletter on the world of investment: John Authers quotes Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, on how strong manufacturing numbers imply a more aggressive Fed. 

25 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

China’s state-owned business reform a step in the wrong direction

“Mixed ownership will do little to change Unicom’s behaviour,” analysts at TS Lombard noted of China’s second-largest telecom wireless company. “On the contrary, it is the latest sign of the Chinese Communist party extending its influence over China’s private sector. SOE reforms suck resources from the private sector.” Moreover, the heavy hand of Beijing — and its obsession with control — is undermining solid economic performance as well as threatening financial stability.

17 Sep 2017 - CNBC

South Africa economy bruised but not broken amid political turmoil and downgrade

With inflation on its way down, Jon Harrison, managing director and head of emerging market macro strategy at London-based TS Lombard, says that "Political tensions remain a powerful driver of investor sentiment. We are relatively more positive on the local debt markets than on equities."

14 Sep 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Zapad symbolizes return to cold war style standoff: Trusted...

Christopher Granville, MD of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, takes a look at the geopolitical tension rising between Russia and the Baltic states.

11 Sep 2017 - MarketWatch

10-year Treasury yield climb most in 7 weeks as hurricane, North Korea fears ease

“There is no way the Fed is going to raise policy rates to flatten or invert the curve. This is one reason why, we believe, the Fed pulled forward the timing of its balance sheet reduction from December to September. In doing so, the Fed hopes that some increase in 10-year real yields will create the space for it to continue to raise the funds rate,” wrote analysts at TS Lombard led by Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz, in a Saturday research note.

11 Sep 2017 - CNBC

S&P 500 rallies to record close as Irma concerns decline; Dow jumps more than 250 points

"The [Trump] administration faces a battle to win UN Security Council approval of its call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade of the country," said Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. "Russia is hostile, calling new sanctions 'premature.' China's foreign minister has suggested it agrees more measures are needed but sources in Beijing say the leadership still opposes cutting off oil supplies."

10 Sep 2017 - Middle East Eye

Investor love affair with Turkey may end in tears

Investors are flocking to Turkey's rapidly growing economy, but some experts say it may not last.

07 Sep 2017 - CNBC

In 2017, Italy has made ‘significant progress’ in banking system...

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, takes a look at the performance of European banks as of late, with added comment on Italy and bond markets.

07 Sep 2017 - The Telegraph

Frankfurt wins post-Brexit prize to become EU financial centre, much to the horror of France

Frankfurt is sweeping aside rivals to become the dominant financial centre of the European Union after Brexit, a triumph that threatens to entrench German hegemony and profoundly upset the EU's internal balance of power.

07 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

Draghi faces another test to taper without tantrums

Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard, a research firm, said: Inflation is still rather low, so the ECB needs to make clear that the hurdle to embark on interest rate rises is much higher than the hurdle to tapering.

06 Sep 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher after Trump signals support for 3-month debt limit extension

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi "seem committed to tightening, both quantitatively and via interest rates, but monetary conditions will remain fairly stimulative so long as inflation does not become a problem," said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note to clients.

06 Sep 2017 - Fortune

Germany Tells the ECB It’s Time to Start Raising Interest Rates

With the Federal Reserve having stopped its purchases and raised interest rates, global markets are now depending only on the ECB and Bank of Japan for continuing support. Both of those central banks are reluctant to exit such "unconventional" policy measures while inflation is still running below target. Charles Dumas, an analyst with TS Lombard in London, said in a note Wednesday that "serious concerns could be even further off" for the ECB than they are for the Fed, whose top officials are now expressing reservations about any further interest rate hikes in the U.S. this year.

01 Sep 2017 - Investment & Pensions Europe

EM debt: Experts clash over debt dynamics

Opinions differ sharply on the sustainability of emerging market debt. Industry expert, Lawrence Brainard, chief emerging markets economist, says the quality of debt has increased and assets have risen faster than debt.

01 Sep 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Expect Stronger Wage Growth Next Year: TS Lombard’s Blitz

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on jobs numbers and wages

31 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Manufacturing ‘unexpectedly strong’ in China

Strong Chinese factory PMI data has a "political context" as the Communist Party gets ready for its party conference in the fall, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, said.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

The European periphery is back from the brink. Where should you invest?

Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece have come a long way since the 2008 financial crisis. They are now often cited as examples of where painful reforms led to economic growth. Given their turnaround, CNBC asked economists and market strategists which of these countries is the best option for investments.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Euro zone countries could be in danger if euro continues to rise, economist says

Countries like Portugal and Spain owe much of their recovery to exports. In Spain alone, exports have been higher than those of Germany, France and Italy (the biggest EU economies) since last year, according to data collected by TS Lombard.

28 Aug 2017 - Citywire Asia

China's debt engine runs at slow pace

‘Households have taken up the slack and become the major driver of credit growth,’ said Michelle Lam, senior economist at TS Lombard. The Chinese economic condition has proved resilient due to reflation and strong external demand, ‘but the mini-cycle has peaked, as property tightening takes its toll, Beijing’s resolve to press ahead with deleveraging will be tested’.

25 Aug 2017 - The Epoch Times

The State of the Global Economy

The US and global economies are doing fine, but not everything is as good as it looks.

25 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi's Drama-Free Jackson Hole Message Reaffirms Slow QE Exit

“As always seemed likely, this is no 2014 repeat -- we have to wait another fortnight for the Governing Council to hammer out an agreement on the next steps,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “No expression of concern about currency strength is a green light for the euro to move higher, irrespective of the agenda for the event.”

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

No fireworks from Draghi in the immediate future

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, reacts to a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Medium term trend of euro appreciation

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, weighs in on the euro zone economy.

22 Aug 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The "smart money" bets on the euro

Andrea Cicione, Head of Macro Strategy, assesses the situation of European Central Bank and the expected monetary policy normalization which suggest a risk that the euro will go through a consolidation phase.

17 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Leery of Ending Stimulus, Worried It Will Buoy Euro

Though the minutes signaled a central bank that was moving slowly, it was clear that at some point policy would change says Ken Wattret.

16 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Eurozone Growth Spreads, Helped by Dutch, Italian Economies

The Italian economy, which admittedly is still one of the weakest, is finally showing signs of life says Shweta Singh

15 Aug 2017 - CGTN

Wall Street's winning streak: Stocks surge and hit record highs

2017 have seen surging U.S. stocks, with a marked number of record highs for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But what's behind the increase? A tweeting President or company performance? 

14 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Trump aides seek to placate China ahead of trade move

China likely to exercise some restraint in the short term in the face of Mr Trump’s trade move, with Beijing inclined to wait to see the results of any investigation - says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist

14 Aug 2017 - Reuters

Trump orders probe of China's intellectual property practices

Jonathan Fenby says China is not interested in a short-term trade fix with the United States and will resist "attempts to tie it down."

13 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Mario Draghi faces easing dilemma as strong euro sparks concern

Even without QE, monetary policy is going to remain extremely accommodative for a long time - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

13 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi Unfazed About the Strength of the Euro

Current market moves are reminiscent of those observed in the run-up to QE. The euro tumbled in the second half of 2014 in anticipation of large-scale bond buying, only to stabilize and even strengthen once the central bank started the program. - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

12 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Russia’s recovering economy fears US sanctions chill

Christopher Granville, MD EMEA research comments on the rising investment threatened by uncertainty over measures approved by Donald Trump

11 Aug 2017 - The Monocle

China and North Korea

China experts Jonathan Fenby discuss whether Beijing can solve the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

11 Aug 2017 - The Street

There Could Be a Powerful Force About to Rip Through the Stock Market That Rattles Nerves

"Markets go up and down, the "trend" can push valuations too far in one direction or the other and, when they do, sharp corrections ensue," TS Lombard managing director Steven Blitz said of Friday's swift downdraft in the tech space. "Tech is just another of many sectors, albeit a high profile one because of the names in the sector, subject to the fear and greed of market participants. In other words, Friday's downswing is probably nothing more meaningful than a re-balancing of market sentiment."

09 Aug 2017 - The Spectator

Fire and Fury: Could this war of words turn ugly?

Jonathan Fenby comments on the tensions between North Korea and US on The Spectator Podcast.

08 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Beijing’s chicanery leaves western business guessing

Jonathan Fenby traces the crackdown back to the dramatic abduction of Xiao Jianhua, head of the Tomorrow Group investment company, during the Chinese new year.

07 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow notches 9th straight record close

 "There is still juice left for equity investors," says Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy

07 Aug 2017 - MarketWatch

Dollar struggles to extend post-jobs-report glow

Recent euro strength has prompted some investors to question whether the European Central Bank’s tapering intentions could be curtailed. This is understandable given the scale and speed of the euro’s appreciation (though we have long been flagging the likelihood of both), says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe economist at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Amazon economy helps explain paradoxes facing investors

John Authers quotes Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on the impact of ecommerce

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Wall St weighs in on US jobs, wages

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, says while the improvement in wages was rooted in low wage jobs that is unlikely to prompt the Fed to stray from the plans.

04 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the July Employment Report: ‘A Banner Jobs Report’

“The great deceleration in hiring that began at the beginning of 2015 and ran through 2016 is now done with, with monthly private sector job gains settling in at an average of 180,000. Looking through the numbers we see much of the resurgence is in low wage jobs. Some 45% of the July increase was in health care and restaurants. And with that, aggregate wage growth slows.” - Steve Blitz, TS Lombard

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

China doesn't do bilateral diplomacy

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, discusses the Trump administration's attitude towards the Middle Kingdom.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Asian leaders see Trump as a 'very weak' president

"The evaluation of Trump, which certainly I get from a lot of Asians and speaking to Chinese people, is that actually they see Trump as a very weak President," Jonathan Fenby, China Chairman at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Macron actually getting things done

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, says that French President Emmanuel Macron has "got to deliver at home in order to show the Germans that he's serious."

01 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone economy grows at fastest pace since debt crisis

“Growth has not been concentrated in the traditional hotspots and economies that have traditionally not done so well are also joining in the recovery” says Ken Wattret, Managing Director of Global Macroeconomics at TS Lombard.

01 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow approaches 22,000, closes at a record high

"Figures on employment and capital spending over the coming month will give us a better sense of what second-quarter profits really mean - beyond whether they beat Wall Street estimates, a dubious distinction at best," Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard,

26 Jul 2017 - Citywire

Ambitious 'J-nomics' will take time to deliver: analysts

‘It’s a very ambitious plan and president Moon doesn’t have a majority [in the parliament] so as with the supplementary budget, which took some time for him to pass, implementation won’t be smooth sailing,’ Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist at TS Lombard told Citywire Asia.

26 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Stocks are ignoring U.S. political uncertainty, but the dollar isn’t

“After six months of Trump, stocks are being made great again, but Russiagate is weighing on the dollar and yields,” wrote Oliver Brennan, Senior Macro Strategist at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Gold settles lower, ending 6-session streak of gains

The committee’s Wednesday communication is not expected to convey new policy directives but it may relay a shift in how current economic data fit into the Fed’s view of the world,” said Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. economist and Managing Director of Global Macro investing, at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Zloty at risk of lingering political angst, say analysts

Poland’s economic fundamentals remained strong but the reactions of rating agencies this autumn to any further changes to the country’s institutions “will be worth watching”.

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Uberfication

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that the shifts involved in the rise of the sharing economy could be more important. The rise of the sharing economy is not just about hip millennials; it is also linked to despair in the Rust Belt, and it will complicate the job of monetary policy well into the future.

20 Jul 2017 - The Epoch Times

The ‘Silk Road’ Verdict

Why China's massive infrastructure plan won't measure up to economic reality. While a new airport or railway can be built in just a few years, amassing the human and institutional capital needed for them to operate efficiently and contribute to economic and social progress is a slower process,

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

U.S. labor market strengthening; mid-Atlantic manufacturing slows

Barring a collapse in general confidence, capital spending plans should start turning into actual expenditure in the coming months," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB expected to dial back on hawkish Sintra comments

ECB president Mario Draghi is expected to dial back on his hawkish comments from Sintra, says Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB sends a dovish message but markets don't buy it

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, agreed that the tapering could be expected at an average pace of $10 billion per meeting, which would enable its completion in the third quarter of next year.

20 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Strong Eurozone Growth Shows Payoff of ECB Stimulus

Data to be released over the coming weeks - including second-quarter growth figures on Aug. 16 - are likely to be “remarkable,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London. “The news flow will be a strong reinforcement of the case that something needs to be done” by the ECB, Mr. Wattret said.

19 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

‘Cold feet’: Euro dips from 14-month high ahead of ECB meeting

Draghi knows he will be deluged with questions about his references to ‘reflation’, what motivated them and what they imply for policy so he should be well prepared. Still, we do not expect to hear anything in the statement or the Q&A which fundamentally challenges the view that a tapering announcement is drawing near.

14 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Consumers aren’t spending, and surging rent might be to blame

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist for TS Lombard, shows that as of early 2017, wage income as a share of rent is at an all-time high. 

12 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

Lombard's Blitz Sees Fed Chasing Labor Market Fantasy

TS Lombard's Chief US Economist Steve Blitz weighs inon Fed policy. He speaks on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

10 Jul 2017 - Pulse News

Bank of Japan staying the lonely course

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: Like other major central banks, the BoJ has recently bumped up its growth forecasts and lowered its inflation estimates for this year and next. But while his peers at the Fed and (slowly but surely) the ECB have embarked on the path of policy normalisation, Governor Kuroda is nowhere near that point. 

08 Jul 2017 - Reuters

As Qatar row smolders, world markets tot up dependence on Gulf petrodollars

"One should expect Gulf governments to sell liquid assets when they have to. I am sure the Qataris will be moving some of their less liquid assets into more liquid ones as a form of insurance, i.e. real estate into equities," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East economist at consultancy TS Lombard.

07 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

No bad news in the Trump June jobs report

“June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Reuters

U.S. job growth accelerates in June, wages continue to lag

"Wage inflation was never going to be a 2017 event. You get paid this year based on how your firm did last year and last year was a slow year for GDP and, more importantly, earnings," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. "Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries to push up the averages."

07 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

U.S. adds 222,000 jobs in June hiring surge

Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries, wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the June Jobs Report: ‘Doing Well Enough’

"June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard.

06 Jul 2017

ECB Considered Dropping a QE Guarantee at June Meeting

Minutes indicate central bank policy makers’ increasing confidence in the eurozone economy: "It’s evolution, not revolution, but the direction of travel is clear,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

27 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

The Draghi Effect: Reflation focus boosts the euro, hits bonds

Analyst Ken Wattret at TS Lombard said: The comments look a bit more balanced than the market reaction would suggest, with the core inflation criteria not yet achieved. Still, use of the term ‘reflationary’ has probably captured the markets’ attention and rightly shaken out some of the complacency.

26 Jun 2017 - CNBC

This is why the ECB purchases corporate bonds

These 'non-standard policies' have helped reduce sovereign and credit risk, curtail funding fragmentation, improve liquidity and increase asset prices. One of the most powerful channels through which QE has worked is a weaker currency, which has boosted the competitiveness of the euro zone," Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC

21 Jun 2017 - The Telegraph

China stocks go mainstream with long-awaited entry into MSCI indices

Michelle Lam, a Hong Kong-based senior economist for TS Lombard, said for now the decision represented more of a "stick and carrot process" for China, which is growing at at least 5pc a year. "It's not going to be a game changer in the near term," she said, reiterating that the 'carrot' in this instance is more inclusion if China follows through with reforms and changes.

21 Jun 2017 - Citywire

Household debt raises risks for Aussie banks

‘In Australia, it hasn’t been a rosy picture since the mining boom went bust. Wages are growing at a slow pace and consumption is being funded increasingly through savings. So the buffer consumers have to finance their mortgages is much, much smaller,’ Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard said in an interview.

19 Jun 2017 - Newsweek

Putin could 'crack' NATO under Trump

Russia is already drawing a wedge between America and its closest NATO allies in other ways. Germany and the European Union have been disturbed by new congressional sanctions against Russia for interfering in the 2016 election, according to Jonathan Fenby, managing director of European political research at the investment research firm TS Lombard. Russian energy companies building the Nord Stream 2 gas export pipeline to Europe, however, are targeted in the new sanctions bill. This is “the latest of a series of developments that augur ill for trans-Atlantic relations,” wrote Fenby in a research letter to investors Sunday. “Germany and Austria, whose companies are investing in the pipeline, criticized the Senate vote for adding a ‘new and very negative quality in European-American relations.’” Fenby said. The new sanctions are just “another brick in the wall of European reaction to Trump’s criticism of European defence spending,” Fenby wrote.

16 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: another clash

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that Janet Yellen of the Fed is chasing a “great white whale” in fighting inflation, when there is little evidence that it exists. He points out that inflation tends to follow increases in real spending, which at present seems to be flat. 

16 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Market is Underestimating Potential ECB Tightening

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Fed’s May interest rate rise and Europe’s improving economy, with more construction spending in Germany. When it comes to Britain’s exit from the European Union, he tells Daybreak Europe’s Caroline Hepker and Markus Karlsson he is skeptical about the stance of U.K. negotiators who seem to think they can dictate the terms of Brexit.

14 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Russian shares near 1-year low on US sanctions risk, oil, rouble

"The latest oil price action is ominous for Russian equities and the rouble's de-coupling from oil compounds the blow for Russian oil stocks," Christopher Granville at TS Lombard wrote, predicting the pace of Russian rate cuts to slow to 25 bps. Rouble strength means investors should be overweight on retail-oriented domestic stocks while selling export-oriented ones, especially those in oil and gas.

12 Jun 2017 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Tough change of course

The ECB will be confronted with increasing technical problems and shortcomings. Shweta Singh from TS Lombard points to the declining supply of securities still obtainable under the existing rules. This is mainly the case with federal bonds, since Germany does not make any new debts. The extent to which the euro system has reached the maximum share of debt issued by a state can not be determined exactly. Singh, however, like Picard's Frederik Ducrozet, is convinced that the Euro system will not be able to continue its purchases without changing the rules for a long time.

09 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Wall St higher as investors shrug off UK election impact

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard in New York, said: "The UK election is a UK event and there is no direct economic impact from that on the U.S. economy. Investors are more concerned about Trump and the perception of what he can and can't get passed legislatively in regards to tax reform. The last thing the Republicans want to do is head to the mid-term election in 2018 without any major legislative accomplishments."

08 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

ECB Doesn’t have Credibility But Buying Power

What the ECB lacks in credibility it makes up for in tremendous buying power, says Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. He also told Daybreak Europe’s Anna Edwards and Guy Johson that he is not surprised that the BOJ is looking to exit its monetary policy.

08 Jun 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Drops Reference to Future Interest-Rate Cut

The size of the ECB’s stimulus “looks increasingly out of line with the economic backdrop,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

05 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone recovery becomes surprise economic story of 2017

Economists say the fall in May’s inflation rate to 1.4 per cent, from 1.9 per cent in April, removed any immediate pressure on the ECB to act. Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard said: “The traditional relationships between growth and inflation seems to have broken down. I can imagine the ECB sounding a little more confident on growth... but on the inflation side they will sound pretty cautious.”

02 Jun 2017 - Pulse News

OPEC back to square one

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: The oil market has come under strain over the last few weeks, with selling pressure intensifying in May amid a spike in volatility. Earlier this month crude prices dropped to the bottom of their six-month range, erasing virtually all the gains recorded since OPEC’s Vienna deal, before stabilising around $50. What is the broader macro message from this price action? Why now? And what comes next? 



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