Press

We maintain a strict media policy. To request an interview with a member of our team or discuss our press distribution policy please email zdl@tslombard.com

20 Oct 2020 - Bloomberg

If Google Is Breaking the Antitrust Laws, What’s the Right Remedy?

Although the U.S. money supply is approaching its fastest growth since World War II, “this money surge is not a precursor to inflation.” That’s what Shweta Singh, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard, a research company, says.

 

20 Oct 2020 - CNBC

The GDP report next week will likely show record-breaking economic growth, but it may not help Trump

“Even though it’s totally meaningless, this is going to give Trump a little lift,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

19 Oct 2020 - Financial Times

Investors bet on the resilience of India’s rural economy

“We don’t know what’s happening in the rural areas as far as Covid goes,” says Shumita Deveshwar, a senior director at research firm TS Lombard.

19 Oct 2020 - Wall Street Journal

China Acceleration May Not Rescue World From Coronavirus Slowdown

“So far, everything has surprised on the upside—export growth, consumption growth. Where else can we get a positive surprise?” said Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard.

19 Oct 2020 - Barrons

China’s Economic Recovery Broadens. But It May Not Be as Strong as It Looks.

The latest data, though, showed a “marked” improvement in domestic consumption and a steady pickup in household spending over the next six to nine months is likely, according to TS Lombard economists Rory Green and Charles Dumas.

17 Oct 2020 - Financial Times

US election: what investors are anticipating

Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard argues: “Biden will simply follow the Trump model, who followed Obama, and rely on executive orders to govern.”

15 Oct 2020 - Barrons

Reports of Proposed Ban on Ant Could Inject Uncertainty Ahead of Its IPO. It May Not Matter.

TS Lombard economist Rory Green says the move could impact the timing of the company’s IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong if the U.S. banks underwriting the deal need to comply with extra regulations related to such a move but wouldn’t change the attractiveness of the Ant IPO—and would only likely accelerate the return of U.S.-listed Chinese companies back home.

09 Oct 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Chinese Exports to the U.S. Get a Lifeline From Coronavirus-Related Demand

Personal-protection equipment and electronic devices related to working from home, such as laptops, accounted for about two-thirds of the export growth in July and August, said Rory Green, a Seoul-based economist at research company TS Lombard. His estimates are based on a product breakdown covering medical equipment, electronic devices and a subcategory of textiles that includes cloth masks. Based on those categories, between March and June, the only growth came from pandemic-related demand, he said.

06 Oct 2020 - Barrons

Emerging Markets Are Looking More Attractive. Why Strategists Are Still Wary.

TS Lombard's Emerging Markets Chairman Larry Brainard cites the risk of the election, as well as a second wave of the pandemic and the challenge many emerging market governments face in financing their expanding fiscal deficits as a reason for his wariness and continued neutral rating on emerging markets.

06 Oct 2020 - Bloomberg

Markets are Wearing Trump's Feelgood Mask, for Now

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, offers an interesting analysis of the U.S. labor market. Many of those temporarily laid off earlier this year are now back at work, but the numbers describing themselves as permanently unemployed are rising.

05 Oct 2020 - Bloomberg

Free Cash for All Boosts Rising South Korea Star to Top of Polls

“Massive fiscal spending in Korea is certainly helping his popularity,” said Rory Green, China and North Asia Economist with research firm TS Lombard.

 

02 Oct 2020 - Barrons

Overseas Markets Weren’t Too Rattled by Trump’s Covid-19 Test. Here’s Why.

“Looking beyond the immediate uncertainty and volatility triggered by the news, equities will likely need to position for a lower probability of a Trump victory. The degree of equity adjustment will depend on the severity of the illness,” says Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard.

30 Sep 2020 - Reuters

UPDATE 1-FTSE 100 on course for monthly decline as virus fears rise

“It is clear that until rising uncertainties over U.S. elections, Brexit and COVID-19 are addressed in a more definite manner and markets see more positive forward looking data, investors are going to stay away from risk assets,” said Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy at T.S. Lombard.

30 Sep 2020 - Reuters

RPT-ANALYSIS-Yen safety status at risk from pandemic-era global rates collapse

Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, noted Swiss and euro zone interest rates were below Japan’s, so “if yen shorts from carry trades are going to be much smaller ...then the yen would no longer act as a risk-off currency.”

29 Sep 2020 - S&P Global

Chinese rural, city banks' asset quality may worsen despite economic recovery

Rory Green, an economist for China and North Asia at TS Lombard, said he expects city and rural commercial banks' NPL ratios to worsen over the next six months before they improve in line with economic recovery in the second half of 2021.

29 Sep 2020 - Reuters

U.S. consumer confidence posts biggest gain in 17 years; downside risks remain

“High confidence today reflects reopened activity but also policy’s success in ring-fencing the impact from the loss of activity. This is not the moment to open the gates,” said Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard in New York. 

29 Sep 2020 - Reuters

Yen safety status at risk from pandemic-era global rates collapse

Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, noted Swiss and euro zone interest rates were below Japan’s, so “if yen shorts from carry trades are going to be much smaller ...then the yen would no longer act as a risk-off currency.”

29 Sep 2020 - Reuters

Fast take: A rise in consumer confidence could boost vote for Trump

“It could be good news for Trump – the better people think about the economy, the more they vote for the incumbent,” said Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard.

28 Sep 2020 - Barrons

U.S. Moved Against a Chinese Chip Maker. It Could Have Been Much Worse.

“The difficulty for Beijing is finding a company that depends on the China market but that is of no economic benefit to the country,” TS Lombard economist Rory Green said.

23 Sep 2020 - Reuters

Futures rise ahead of business activity data; Nike shines

“If we get a second (COVID-19) wave, it could have a significant impact on the election itself and that’s why markets have been wobbly in the last few days,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

22 Sep 2020 - Reuters

FTSE flat, mid caps hit as PM readies new restrictions

“The domestic mid-cap index is bearing the effect of investor risk averseness as they factor in the possibility of nationwide lockdown due to the coronavirus situation,” said Andrea Cicione, a strategist at T.S. Lombard.

19 Sep 2020 - MarketWatch

Yes, the U.S. economy really does need more fiscal stimulus – and the stock market knows it

“There has always been a reckoning that needs to occur which has not yet taken place,” said Steve Blitz, chief US economist for TS Lombard. “And that is the possibility of an extended recessionary environment. Because most people believe this is a COVID cycle as opposed to a true economic cycle, the forward sentiment never dropped like it would in a regular recession.”

15 Sep 2020 - Barrons

Confused About What Oracle’s Deal With TikTok Means? Here’s What to Look For.

TS Lombard’s Rory Green expects the Trump team to roll out a “playbook of anti-China moves” ahead of key debates or to try to change the news cycle.

14 Sep 2020 - Bloomberg

The Fed's Inflation Hunt May Stumble on Zombies

Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, suggests that the trend remains deflationary. In the case of women’s apparel, there was downward pressure in place before the pandemic, which subsequently accelerated.

13 Sep 2020 - Financial Times

China bans pork imports from Germany

“Beijing wants to give Berlin a warning shot that we have the ability to undermine you if you don’t listen to us,” said Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard.

12 Sep 2020 - Marketwatch

The numbers tell us the economy is better, but millions of Americans aren’t feeling it

Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, said it’s long been an industry maxim that the 20% of wealthiest Americans account for up to 80% of all discretionary spending. 

10 Sep 2020 - Bloomberg Podcast

Weak Oil Demand May Push Price Back Near $30: Schork (Podcast)

Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist for TS Lombard, appears at 13 mins and 30 seconds to discuss why permanent job loss is a key metric.

10 Sep 2020 - Australian Financial Review

To infinity and beyond: the discount rate paradox

"The present value of future dividends theoretically rises to infinity," says Dario Perkins, Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard.

10 Sep 2020 - Bloomberg Radio

Permanent Job Losses Paint Real Economic Picture: Blitz (Radio)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist for TS Lombard, on jobless claims, inflation and the economy. 

09 Sep 2020 - Reuters

US STOCKS - Futures bounce after tech rout sends Nasdaq into correction

"You went from being very, very overbought to now being more evenly balanced," says Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy at TS Lombard.

06 Sep 2020 - CNBC

China says August exports beat expectations, jumping 9.5% from a year ago

The strong export numbers over three consecutive months would boost Chinese growth in the second half of the year, said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

04 Sep 2020 - Reuters

FTSE 100 reverses losses, miners and financials lead turnaround

"The slip during the opening trade in the FTSE was a knee jerk reaction to the tech sell-off we saw on Wall Street yesterday," said Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy at TS Lombard.

03 Sep 2020 - Reuters

European shares at one-month high as downbeat data spurs stimulus hopes

“The market is starting to discount a permanent easy monetary policy because there is no inflation to make the ECB change its mind, and the only effective lever going forward will be fiscal policy,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

02 Sep 2020 - Politico

The global coronavirus economy: How bad will it get?

The other means governments have of creating demand and spurring growth is via big-ticket infrastructure projects, many of which are expected to be announced in the U.K., Europe and the U.S. starting at the end of this year. But these have the disadvantage of taking years to filter through to the whole of the economy, said Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard.

30 Aug 2020 - Bloomberg

India Faces Worst Quarterly GDP Slump Ever After Lockdown

“What I am worried about is the structural fault lines that this extreme economic shock will expose over the longer term, and how many years it will take for the economy to get back where it was,” said Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, an economist at TS Lombard based in Gurugram, near New Delhi.
 

28 Aug 2020 - Barrons

The Fed’s New Policy Means Rates Will Stay Lower Longer. The Price: Financial Turbulence.

“Policy has flipped back to the days of wide lapels and double-knit suits, but the inflation response will not be like the 1970s,” writes Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard

26 Aug 2020 - Barrons

Commitment to the U.S.-China Trade Deal Takes One Big Market Risk Off the Table - For Now

TS Lombard economists noted that recent floods in China that ravaged millions of acres of farmland could contribute to the increase in purchases of U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and meat. Those purchases are important for President Donald Trump to tout the success of the deal going into the election.

26 Aug 2020 - Reuters

European stocks nudge higher as stimulus hopes outweigh virus woes

“We’ve had a disappointing set of flash PMIs last week, which gives you an impression that after the initial rebound, the recovery is going to stall,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

24 Aug 2020 - Bloomberg

Apple's Great at $2 Trillion. Its Stock May Not Be

The FANG phenomenon makes it hard to apply traditional metrics to the market as a whole; but the FANGs don’t drive everything. Illustrated by this chart from Steven Blitz, U.S. economist with TS Lombard.

20 Aug 2020 - Marketwatch

Is the stock market more important to the economy than the $600 unemployment benefit?

“The $600 top-up in unemployment benefits is critical for those getting the funds, but its absence means less to overall retail spending than many opine,” says Steve Blitz, chief US economist for TS Lombard.

19 Aug 2020 - South China Morning Post

Belarus protests cast shadow over China’s Belt and Road ambitions as Lukashenko refuses to relinquish power

Madina Khrustaleva, an analyst with London-based research firm TS Lombard, said China’s investment in many ex-Soviet states such as Belarus could be seen as an attempt to grow its influence in what was traditionally Russia’s backyard.

18 Aug 2020 - Financial Times

Why China’s economic recovery from coronavirus is widening the wealth gap

“The government can decide on how many roads and bridges to build,” says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard.

18 Aug 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus recovery: China’s prudent monetary policy shows where smart money is

TS Lombard said the PBOC intends to maintain relatively high interest rates in China, in stark contrast to its peers elsewhere, and expects the current rate differential between the higher-yielding 10-year Chinese government bond and the 10-year US Treasury to stay above 2 per cent “for the foreseeable future”.

18 Aug 2020 - OILPRICE.COM

Trade War Becomes Key Driver For Oil As Elections Near

“Beijing has proved it can contain new infection clusters through highly-effective local lockdowns that leave the national and even city level economy relatively unscathed,” Rory Green, senior China and North Asia economist for TS Lombard, in London told OilPrice.com last week.

16 Aug 2020 - Financial Times

ByteDance faces China backlash as Trump piles pressure on TikTok

But “the threat of legal action suggests ByteDance leadership is panicking”, said Bo Zhuang, an analyst at TS Lombard.

14 Aug 2020 - CNBC

Here’s why this recession has been different from any other

In fact, the real recession may be yet to come, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

12 Aug 2020 - Reuters

Signs of rebounding economic growth sends FTSE 100 to three-week highs

“UK is one of the cheaper markets out there and it’s one of the markets that investors expect to outperform if data continues to improve in the next few months,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

11 Aug 2020 - Reuters

US STOCKS-S&P 500 inches closer to record high as stimulus bets climb

“You’ve got to admit that this is a market that wants to go up, despite tensions between U.S.-China, despite news of the coronavirus not being particularly encouraging,” said Andrea Cicione, a strategist at TS Lombard.

10 Aug 2020 - Financial Times

Chinese rating agencies in record boost of local government vehicles

“Local rating agencies made the adjustment in part because of LGFVs’ crucial role in rescuing the virus-hit economy but that doesn’t make risky bonds safer,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lombard.

09 Aug 2020 - Forbes

Belarusian Strongman’s Projected Reelection Prompts Protests, Fraud Allegations

“You could be looking at a full-on revolution in central eastern Europe,” says Christopher Granville, a managing director of Global Political Research at TS Lombard.

07 Aug 2020 - Bloomberg Radio

Steve Blitz Previews Jobs Report (Radio)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, previews Friday's U.S jobs report with Bryan Curtis and Tom Mackenzie on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

07 Aug 2020 - Reuters

Picking pennies: Dollar slump lifts U.S. bond returns for foreigners

But the March rate cuts have steepened the U.S. yield curve compared with its Japanese counterpart for the first time “in years, making this kind of FX-hedged investments attractive,” said Oliver Brennan, TS Lombard macro strategist.

07 Aug 2020 - Forbes

What’s The Real Unemployment Rate: 10.2% Or 18.8%?

As a note from TS Lombard chief U.S. economist Steven Blitz stated: “The biggest impact of the July employment numbers are political. As a sense of emergency diminishes, so too the rush to push the package across the finish line.”

07 Aug 2020 - Marketwatch

Dow, S&P 500 finish higher even as pandemic aid talks break down in DC without a deal

“The biggest impact of the July employment numbers are political,” Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, wrote following Friday’s employment report. “As a sense of emergency diminishes, so too the rush to push the package across the finish line.”

06 Aug 2020 - Al Jazeera

'Hitting people in every sense': Turkish lira hits record low

"This is a crisis that has been brewing for several years," said Jon Harrison, emerging markets macro strategist at TS Lombard.

05 Aug 2020 - Reuters

Q&A-Fresh U.S. virus relief package to be about $1.5 trln - TS Lombard

The U.S. coronavirus relief bill currently under debate is likely to come in at about $1.5 trillion and will be aimed at sustaining current levels of economic activity rather than boosting them, TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz said.

03 Aug 2020 - CNBC

‘Europe’s last dictator’ battles coronavirus, mass protests and suspected Russian mercenaries to stay in power

“It deserves attention because a similar situation in Ukraine resulted in a global geopolitical confrontation,” Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and Global Political Research at TS Lombard, told CNBC.

02 Aug 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Fed Weighs Abandoning Pre-Emptive Rate Moves to Curb Inflation

The changes on their own will do little to provide more support to the economy right now because investors already understand that the Fed isn't likely to raise interest rates for years, said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at research firm TS Lombard

02 Aug 2020 - Financial Times

Will official data show that the US recovery has stalled?

But the clamour for such products was cooling, said Zhuang Bo, an analyst at TS Lombard. “You don’t have to buy a laptop every month in order to work from home,” he said.

31 Jul 2020 - Financial Times

Investors in gold and investors in bonds cannot both be right

“We’ve had a lot of questions from clients who are interested in gold as a hedge for equities,” said Dario Perkins, managing director for global macro research at TS Lombard.

31 Jul 2020 - Bloomberg

Chinese importers buying up computing chips before US sanctions shut Hong Kong route

Broader US sanctions on Hong Kong and China will shift the semiconductor warehousing business out of Hong Kong to a different Asian transshipment hub in a worst-case scenario, said Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard.

31 Jul 2020 - South China Morning Post

China taps old growth model to boost recovery, as US and European economies flounder

“There is a clear trend of China looking inward,” said Bo Zhuang, chief China analyst at TS Lombard.

30 Jul 2020 - Forbes

Second Covid Wave Keeps Fed In Crisis Mode, Punting On Stimulus

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, did not take the change in language - “they are publicly and officially calling out the downshift in activity post the sunbelt surge and surrendering to it.”

29 Jul 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Fed Maintains Stimulus Commitment as Economic Outlook Dims

Steven Blitz of research firm TS Lombard compared the current policy environment as akin to driving a car with a brake pedal but no gas pedal.

29 Jul 2020 - Marketwatch

Americans are anxious, and that’s bad news for both Trump and the stock market

That’s bad news, according to an analysis from TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steve Blitz: bad for the incumbent in the White House, and bad for risky assets like stocks although there are some caveats to that.

29 Jul 2020 - Bloomberg Podcast

Fed Leaves Rates Near Zero (Podcast)

Federal Reserve officials left their benchmark interest rate unchanged near zero and again vowed to use all their tools to support the U.S. economy amid a shaky recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Discussing the news is Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard.

28 Jul 2020 - Financial Times

China’s newest stock market disappoints as shares fall on debut

“The government thinks it would be easier for troubled firms to sell shares by offering a discount,” said Zhuang Bo, an economist at TS Lombard.

27 Jul 2020 - Financial Times Alphaville

Markets Now - Monday 27th July 2020

TS Lombard has the top-down take centering on what happened after the previous low in real yields, in 2012, after the Fed pressed the button on QE3.

24 Jul 2020 - Bloomberg

There's No V in `Fiscal Cliff' for Nervous Markets

As this chart from Steven Blitz, U.S. economist for TS Lombard, makes clear, the government’s expenditure has now leapt far ahead of its receipts.

24 Jul 2020 - Barrons

U.S.-China Relations Have Sunk to a New Low. What It Will Take to Worry Markets.

“If the accelerating anti-China trend continues and the “Houston incident” marks the start of Trump’s presidential campaign, then re-politicization of the dollar/yuan begins now,” says TS Lombard economist Rory Green, who expects political tensions to result in a weaker yuan.

22 Jul 2020 - Bloomberg

South Korea GDP to Show Recession Despite Avoiding Lockdown

Korea is well positioned for a second-half rebound from the exports of semiconductors and its economic ties with China, the only major economy forecast to grow in 2020, according to Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard.

22 Jul 2020 - Barrons

U.S. Shuts a Chinese Consulate. Why Investors Should Pay Attention to the Dramatic Move.

“If the accelerating anti-China trend continues and the “Houston incident” marks the start of Trump’s presidential campaign then re-politicization of dollar/yuan begins now,” says Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard.

20 Jul 2020 - Barrons

Ant Could Be the Biggest IPO Ever, but It Will Bypass the U.S. Others Could Follow.

One heads-up for investors: Given the sheer size of the Ant’s IPO, TS Lombard’s Rory Green said via email that domestic Chinese stocks could see a dip ahead of the offering, as investors sell other holdings to buy the IPO.

19 Jul 2020 - South China Morning Post

Belt and Road Initiative debt: how big is it and what’s next?

China is likely to renegotiate with the borrowers on the loans, but it will face an uphill task because a large portion of the repayments in belt and road projects are expected to kick in this year, according to TS Lombard, a London-based research firm.

17 Jul 2020 - Reuters

FTSE 100 dips but set for first weekly gain in four

“Markets have so far been rising on hope but investors right now are more cautious and would wait for progress in corporate numbers before they enter markets again,” said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard.

17 Jul 2020 - Reuters

FTSE 100 propped up by AstraZeneca, snaps three-week losing streak

“Markets have so far been rising on hope but investors right now are more cautious and would wait for progress in corporate numbers before they enter markets again,” said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard.

17 Jul 2020 - Barrons

Banks’ Loan-Loss Reserves Send Sharp Warning on Economy

The optimism evidenced in various manufacturers’ surveys, such as the Philadelphia Fed’s, could be misplaced, writes Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. 

16 Jul 2020 - Bloomberg

China’s Rebounding Economy Now Hinges on Global Recovery

“I think the economic recovery in China will continue in the next few quarters, even when export growth is facing some headwinds.” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard.

16 Jul 2020 - Financial Times

US fund managers seek to safeguard portfolios against inflation

While few investors fear an immediate resurgence in inflation, what has become the “concern du jour”, according to Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, is what happens when a recovery takes hold

16 Jul 2020 - Fortune

How the West’s work from home trend is fueling China’s GDP growth

“Export growth is so much stronger than anyone could have expected,” said TS Lombard’s chief China economist, Bo Zhuang. 

15 Jul 2020 - CNBC

China says its economy grew 3.2% in the second quarter this year, rebounding from coronavirus

Chinese exports have been getting “massive market share” while the rest of the world was locked down, said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard before the data release. 

15 Jul 2020 - Marketwatch

Pandemics typically lead to inflation receding, new research finds

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, said the new Bank of England study fits with other analyses showing that pandemics are unlike wars in terms of inflation.

07 Jul 2020 - South China Morning Post

Why the People’s Bank of China is having a good coronavirus pandemic

Larry Brainard, chief emerging market economist at TS Lombard, an independent investment research firm, feels that PBOC awareness of shortcomings in China’s financial system and “the recognition that [Chinese] savers matter” have characterised the monetary policy response.

07 Jul 2020 - S&P Global

China's shadow banking likely to stay in contraction as lenders get cautious

"The still relatively slow improvement in shadow banking activity indicates that credit is not moving fast enough to [small and medium-sized enterprises] and the real economy," Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard, told S&P Global Market Intelligence.

06 Jul 2020 - Barrons

China’s Stocks Are on a Tear. Can They Keep Going?

Other factors have bolstered Chinese stocks, TS Lombard’s Rory Green says, including state media talking about the broader benefits of a “healthy bull market” and three consecutive months of “northbound” inflows—or foreign investors using Hong Kong brokerage firms to invest in mainland China—after a sharp decline in March.

04 Jul 2020 - Financial Times

The Fed is rightly wary of embarking on yield curve control

The central bank may want to shrink its balance sheet “once the world gets back to normal”, said Steven Blitz at TS Lombard.

03 Jul 2020 - Forbes

Income Inequality And Investing Are About To Run Into Each Other

At the same time, as Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard noted in some research the company emailed, while headline unemployment has quickly dropped, “the number of permanent job losses continue to climb steadily.

02 Jul 2020 - CNBC

Record jobs gain of 4.8 million in June smashes expectations; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

“This slowdown is going to have an impact, absolutely. How big is hard to say,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

02 Jul 2020 - Reuters

Record U.S. job growth expected in June, but masks labor market weakness

“As the economy is reopening a lot of the jobs lost have come back and activity is coming back as well,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

02 Jul 2020 - Financial Times

A jobs report with more questions than answers

Steven Blitz at TS Lombard says the number of permanent unemployed workers “has risen into recession territory and will continue to rise as summer moves on” as shown here:

02 Jul 2020 - Forbes

China’s Pandemic ‘Winners’ Driving Its Economic Recovery Post-Coronavirus

“The outperformance of winners conceals the many laggards,” says Rory Green, an economist for TS Lombard.

01 Jul 2020 - Reuters

British mid-caps gain as investors hope for post-pandemic recovery

“The direction of improving economic numbers is leading (investors) to believe the economy isn’t dead yet,” said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard.

30 Jun 2020 - CNBC

U.S. market is ‘smoking dope on earnings’ and investors are likely to be disappointed, economist says

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC Tuesday that “the market is essentially trading off a view about 2021 that is not going to happen.”

30 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

U.S. and China Tensions Continue. Here’s What Investors Should Look For.

The upshot for investors: Brace for more heated rhetoric—and volatility—into the election. That means be prepared for proposals for more technology and even financial restrictions, including de-listings of U.S.-listed Chinese companies that don’t follow U.S. audit rules, says TS Lombard economist Rory Green.

30 Jun 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil stocks set for best quarter since 2003; Real down

"The lower returns from sovereign fixed-income instruments have forced investors out of their traditional comfort zone of higher-yielding government bonds and into riskier assets, and this has been a major factor in the resilient domestic equity market in Brazil," wrote Wilson Ferrarezi, Brazil Economist at TS Lombard.

30 Jun 2020 - Reuters

Analyst View: Market analysts react to China's new Hong Kong law

“We have known for more than a month that this was coming. This was accelerated by protests last year and was the key trigger for Beijing to bring in more control over Hong Kong," says Rory Green, china economist at TS Lombard in London.

29 Jun 2020 - Forbes

Why You Should Be Bearish About The Stock Market

“Once the initial stock market recovery matures, it is always down to earnings to validate the bull market,” says Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard.

29 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

US bill aiming to delist Chinese companies could claim American investors, businesses as unintended victims

“In the current market, with tech outperforming, it’s almost impossible for fund managers to match or outperform the MSCI China [Index] if they do not own companies like Alibaba, and to a lesser extent Baidu, NetEase and JD,” said Rory Green, China Economist at TS Lombard.

29 Jun 2020 - OILPRICE.COM

Second COVID Wave In China Could Upend Crude Recovery

Lawrence Brainard, chairman of the emerging markets panel for TS Lombard, in London, told OilPrice.com. “The target for energy imports so far this year reflects the largest shortfall, less than 5 per cent, of the prorated target [but] the failure to meet this target undoubtedly reflects the collapse of energy prices in recent months and the delays caused by the global recession,”

29 Jun 2020 - Marketwatch

Dow surges 579 points, ending near session highs, on hope that shutdowns won’t be widespread as coronavirus cases top 10 million

“From our perspective, the virus surging in the South simply underscores our long-held view that it is the virus, not monetary or fiscal policy, controlling the economy’s recovery,” wrote TS Lombard’s chief U.S. economist Steven Blitz and head of strategy Andrea Cicione, in a client note.

29 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

Blue-sky hopes tested by Covid clouds

“Another surge, such as what is occurring in Texas and Florida, may again test the Fed’s ability to manipulate equity market values, and it also underscores the need to continue income support past July 31, even if it is less generous — just in case the surge gets worse,” say Steven Blitz and Andrea Cicione of independent research prover, TS Lombard.

27 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

Doug Ramsey Says It’s Too Soon To Say the Bear Calls Were Wrong

Strategists and economists at the TS Lombard research shop including Charles Dumas remain bears, expecting a drop of at least 20%. Still, they’ve dropped their March call that the S&P 500 would fall below 2,000 over the summer.
 

26 Jun 2020 - Reuters

FTSE 100 gains as investors hold out for economic rebound

“Stocks are rallying based on an expectation of further stimulus measures due to the rise in U.S. infections,” said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard. 

26 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

India pushes up cost of fuel to boost revenues

“There has already been fiscal slippage,” said Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at TS Lombard. 

26 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

Looking several steps ahead for asset prices

Dario Perkins at TS Lombard warns that asset prices face a test as the power of “monetary policy is becoming less effective at stimulating the macro economy” and “financial markets cannot diverge from macro fundamentals indefinitely.”

25 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

Sichuan protest raises fears for China’s $3tn trust sector

The Sichuan incident points “to systemic risks down the road,” said Zhuang Bo, an analyst at TS Lombard. Y

19 Jun 2020 - Reuters

London stocks gain on sharp rebound in May retail sales, oil boost

“The retail sales numbers show the economy isn’t dead, which is giving some confidence to the market,” said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard.

19 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

This Cheap Hedge Could Save Investors Some Grief

Despite the deflationary impact of the pandemic there is a sound logical reason to fear inflation, which is the immense rise in world money supply, illustrated in this chart from TS Lombard.

19 Jun 2020 - Barrons

3 Investment Bets for a ‘Disastrous’ Economy

"Much has been made of the recent “disconnect” between the stock market and the economy, but it is arguable that the past dozen years have been such a disconnect," say Charles Dumas, Lawrence Brainard and Shweta Singh of TS Lombard.

18 Jun 2020 - Reuters

U.S. weekly jobless claims remain high, second wave of layoffs blamed

“People will say claims are coming down, but for an economy that is reopening, that is a huge number,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

17 Jun 2020 - Reuters

London stocks gain on recovery optimism; energy firm SSE jumps

“Any sort of upswings in the market are going to be based on the earnings performance of companies because a majority of the macro-related developments are already factored in,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

17 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

China-US tensions pose biggest risk to Chinese economy in the second half of 2020, analysts say

“Absent a significant second wave of the virus, the biggest downside risk is escalation of US-China tensions,” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, a research house.

17 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

U.S. Elections May Reignite China Trade Risk in Developing World

The potential for renewed tensions is high if a V-shaped global recovery fails to materialize, said Larry Brainard, chief emerging-market economist at TS Lombard in London.

17 Jun 2020 - Forbes

China’s Economy Rebounds, But Beijing’s Coronavirus Could Stop It

“The recovery in production has continued to outpace that of demand,” says Bo Zhuang, China economist for TS Lombard.

17 Jun 2020 - Reuters

Recovery optimism buoys London stocks; energy firm SSE jumps

“Any sort of upswings in the market are going to be based on earnings performance of companies because a majority of the macro-related developments are already factored in,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

16 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

Federal Reserve’s coronavirus policies risk driving capital to Asia

This perception has implications for Asia, too, according to the China Team at independent investment research provider TS Lombard.

15 Jun 2020 - Pensions & Investments

Brexit back on list of issues managers worry about

"The main takeaway for investors and asset managers is we think there is room for the pound to fall further," said Constantine Fraser, London-based analyst, European research at global research firm TS Lombard.

15 Jun 2020 - CNBC

Treasury yields fall as second coronavirus wave fears intensify

“Not all news is good news,” said Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note.

15 Jun 2020 - Forbes

China Spooks Market With Coronavirus Cases In Beijing

“There are reasons to be optimistic about the recovery: correlations are normalizing, economic data have been surprising positively and earnings revisions are improving — all factors we reckoned were necessary before markets could sustainably recover,” says Oliver Brennan, a macro strategist for TS Lombard.

15 Jun 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real slides as political uncertainty deepens

"Funchal is a good name for replacement indeed," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard.

15 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

Risk sentiment rides the waves with some central bank help

“Second waves in some US states, first waves in emerging markets and the recent stock market drop mean the crisis is far from over,” argues Oliver Brennan of TS Lombard.

11 Jun 2020 - Marketwatch

Swift market reaction to Fed may be more about what it didn’t do than what it did, analysts say

Steven Blitz of TS Lombard drew a bullish message from Powell’s press conference, as he pushed back on concerns over asset price growth that has seen the S&P 500 SPX, -5.89% surge from March lows.

11 Jun 2020 - Irish Independent

Crisis - what crisis? Stock markets surge as the global economy tanks

According to Charles Dumas and Andrea Cicione, of consultancy TS Lombard, a fair amount of "financial engineering" has been going on.

09 Jun 2020 - Reuters

China's troubled Baoshang rescue exposes fault lines in bank reform drive

“In the next 1-2 years ... forced lending to support the economy will come back to haunt lenders in significantly increased non-performing loans,” said Rory Green, a China economist at TS Lombard.

08 Jun 2020 - CNBC

The U.S.-China ‘cold war’ is here — and Beijing may start targeting Washington’s allies, analysts say

“While it will react rhetorically, China does not want to get into a full-scale confrontation with the US at the present time. It wants to concentrate on containing the virus, reviving the economy and pushing through the security law in Hong Kong,” Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard told CNBC.

08 Jun 2020 - Cardrates

COVID-19 Analysis from TS Lombard: Countries with the Most Disciplined Response to the Crisis Stand to Recover More Quickly

The unprecedented global challenge brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic has rightly raised concerns among investors and policymakers, says Constantine Fraser, Europe Analyst at TS Lombard

07 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

China’s exports drop in May as coronavirus pandemic hits overseas demand

TS Lombard analyst Bo Zhuang said that while a 40 per cent decline in the second quarter was “no longer likely”, a low double-digit drop in the next few months was still on the cards.

07 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

China’s exports drop off as global slowdown hits economy

Bo Zhuang, Chief China economist at TS Lombard, said the binge underscored Beijing’s efforts to prepare for an escalating stand-off with the US.

06 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China needs GDP growth of about 3 per cent in 2020 to meet job goals, analysts say

Rory Green, China economist at London-based research TS Lombard, said the government plans to expand cheap lending to small and medium-sized firms “to keep them solvent” is likely to only stabilise their employment situation. 

05 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

Oil’s Fragile Peace Is Threatened by Iraq’s Desperate Reality

“The real economy is so sick that people need government support,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard, a London-based research firm.

05 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg

This Time, Europe Hasn't Thrown Away Its Shot

This chart from Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, uses ADP data and shows that unemployment for companies with more than 1,000 employees isn’t as bad as in the last recession; but for companies with fewer than 500 employees, it is already much worse.

05 Jun 2020 - Forbes

India Tries Reopening During Peak Coronavirus

“Challenges faced by the economy prior to the pandemic-induced crisis – from rising fiscal pressures to financial sector stress – are now being amplified,” says Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, senior director for India research at TS Lombard.

05 Jun 2020 - CNBC

The EU’s massive pandemic stimulus risks fueling discontent and euroskepticism

Constantine Fraser, Europe analyst at research firm TS Lombard,  also told CNBC that “opposition politicians have already started to attack the plan, as too small in size, too slow in its prospective disbursements, or as coming with too much conditionality attached.”

05 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg Radio

Steve Blitz on May Jobs Report (Radio)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist, at TS Lombard, previews tomorrow’s jobs report in the U.S with Bryan Curtis and Juliette Saly on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

05 Jun 2020 - Reuters

Column: Markets appear relaxed at shifting US election odds

TS Lombard’s Chris Granville thinks “peak danger” on China relations may be close to the election, depending on the polls.

05 Jun 2020 - Reuters

U.S. unemployment rate seen near 20% as COVID slams jobs market again in May

“What makes this downturn different from all others is that people have held the belief that once everything reopens all the jobs are going to come back,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

04 Jun 2020 - Forbes

Brazil Is Back To Being A China Story

“Agriculture is one of the few bright spots in the Brazilian economy,” says Wilson Ferrarezi, an analyst for TS Lombard.

04 Jun 2020 - Bloomberg Podcast

Improving COVID-19 Contact Tracing, Jobless Claims (Podcast)

We get Businessweek Economics with Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard.

04 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

The ECB buys time for a more important task

“By late summer, the increasing number of small-firm bankruptcies and growing pressures on commercial real estate should become evident enough in capital market prices for market participants to notice,” warns Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard.

03 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

China to bypass provinces with direct payments to cash-strapped local governments, but revenue problems remain

“Beijing has opted for a classic infrastructure-led stimulus, contradicting stated ambitions to move towards domestic demand oriented growth,” said Rory Green, China economist at London-based research firm TS Lombard.

02 Jun 2020 - South China Morning Post

Hong Kong row unlikely to kill US-China trade deal, Beijing advisers say, but traders fret over superpower rivalry

Christopher Granville, an analyst at TS Lombard, said China has “good reasons” to value the deal.

02 Jun 2020 - Barrons

Wall Street’s Rally Continues and There’s No Sign of Slowing It Down — Yet

“The move from China is a political warning shot. Soybeans were the poster boy of [President Donald] Trump’s trade deal victory. By threatening the big win for [U.S.] farmers, Beijing is pressuring what Trump views as a pillar of his re-election campaign.” –Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard.

01 Jun 2020 - Forbes

The Economic Crisis Has Entered A New Phase

TS Lombard’s China chief, Jonathan Fenby, says he doesn’t think the Chinese central bank will weaken the yuan in order to make China so cheap that Asian economies suffer at its expense. 

01 Jun 2020 - Marketwatch

The stock market has been rising. Is that why Trump is attacking China?

“Trump needs China as partner and as villain,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard. 

01 Jun 2020 - Financial Times

Enthused bulls and arrested bears

.hat credit scenario does not alarm equity sentiment just yet, but TS Lombard highlights there is a divergence between the two markets

01 Jun 2020 - Barrons

Soybeans, Pork, and China Could Tank Stocks’ Rally

“The move from China is a political warning shot. Soybeans were the poster boy of President Donald Trump’s trade deal victory. By threatening the big win for U.S. farmers, Beijing is pressuring what Trump views as a pillar of his re-election campaign,” says Rory Green, an economist at independent research firm TS Lombard

30 May 2020 - The Telegraph

Hong Kong faces blizzard of red tape

“The White House is already pressuring federal pension funds to divest in Chinese investments and plans to delist Chinese firms from US exchanges,” said Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard.

30 May 2020 - Bloomberg

Chinese Factories Humming Doesn’t Mean Everyone Is Buying

The supply-demand mismatch would end up adding to deflationary pressures and a pose fresh headwinds to economic growth, according to Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard.

29 May 2020 - Nikkei Asian Review

Indonesia's Ramadan spending spree spoiled by coronavirus

Krzysztof Halladin, an analyst at TS Lombard, says "growth has already slowed sharply in the first quarter on the back of weak domestic demand." He sees the coronavirus outbreak in Indonesia "set to last longer than in most other Asian countries," citing virus containment measures that are "less strict and came later than elsewhere," as well as poor health services.

29 May 2020 - Fortune

‘Nuclear option:’ How the U.S. could leverage Hong Kong to hurt Beijing

However, Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, argues that Hong Kong's relative GDP contributions to mainland China are not the crux of this relationship.

29 May 2020 - Financial Times

Global stocks weaken with Trump expected to hit back at China

“Recent [renminbi] fixings by the PBoC suggest an effort to dampen volatility — not drive the currency lower,” said Larry Brainard, chief emerging markets economist at TS Lombard. 

28 May 2020 - Bloomberg Podcast

Surveillance: H.K.’s Special Status With Fenby (Podcast)

Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard China Research Chairman, says the loss of Hong Kong’s special trading status with the U.S. would hurt Hong Kong more than China.

25 May 2020 - Caixin

Opinion: China to Increase Infrastructure Spending, but No Housing Stimulus for Now

As we forecast, China abandoned a numerical GDP target for 2020, with the Government Work Report placing more emphasis on job market stabilization and improving people’s livelihoods, say Jonathan Fenby, Bo Zhuang and Rory Green of TS Lombard.

24 May 2020 - Fortune

The mystery of China’s unemployment rate

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, looked at reported profit and productivity declines across industrial sectors—manufacturing, services, construction—to speculate on the number of laborers that would need to be laid off in each.

24 May 2020 - Financial Times

China signals room left to borrow in drive for economic rebound

“Beijing is exchanging short-term gains for long-term pain,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lombard.

22 May 2020 - Financial Times

Fears of Japanification spreading are misplaced

Charles Dumas of TS Lombard points out: “The combination of a plunging world market share and very high profit margins has only been possible with wage rates falling relative to output, incomes and gross business profits.”

22 May 2020 - Barrons

China’s Hard Line on Hong Kong Could Mean Big Changes for Investors

Capital outflows from Hong Kong bear watching, TS Lombard’s Rory Green wrote in an email.

22 May 2020 - Reuters

US STOCKS-Wall St set for muted open on simmering U.S.-China tensions

“Market sentiment is really vulnerable to expensive valuation at the moment,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

21 May 2020 - Marketwatch

The economy is finally recovering from the coronavirus, but the ill-effects aren’t going away for a long time

“The economy has bottomed,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist of TS Lombard.

21 May 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Most Latam FX, stocks rally on hopes of strong recovery

"Brazil Activity data are likely to post new record declines in April," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard.

21 May 2020 - CNBC

Highly indebted ‘zombie’ companies control more than 2 million U.S. jobs

“The zombie companies are those firms that are able to borrow in effect cheaper than they should given their revenue, and they’re able to stay in business,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

21 May 2020 - Reuters

Backlogs, second wave of layoffs keeping U.S. weekly jobless claims high

“None of these states had systems set up to process the unprecedented amount of claims in one fell swoop, so there are backlogs,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

21 May 2020 - CGTN

Europe transitions into life post-lockdown, governments face scrutiny

TS Lombard's Fraser tempered surprise at the size of the rescue package. "500 billion euros obviously seems like a lot of money in absolute terms, but it's only about 3.5 percent of EU GDP – and member states will ultimately have to service the debt themselves," he said.

21 May 2020 - The Australian

Coronavirus: Beijing on war footing as National­ People’s Congress begins

“The (NPC) will send a clear signal on the level of economic stimulus in the coming months,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at research group TS Lombard.

21 May 2020 - Washington Post

Homebuilders climb even as housing outlook remains cloudy

“The key, of course, is employment, meaning housing’s big rebound year is looking more as if it occurs in 2021,” Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a report this week.

20 May 2020 - Financial Times

Chinese business pleads for more help from Beijing

“The NPC will send a clear signal on the level of economic stimulus in the coming months,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lombard, the research group.

19 May 2020 - Reuters

European shares pull back after rally, healthcare drags

“We’re following up yesterday with a bit of consolidation, but I would not read too much into it,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

18 May 2020 - CNBC

Powell is correct that the Fed is not out of ammunition ‘by a long shot’

“The Fed, with the Treasury, is going to lend more. And then lend more next year,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

18 May 2020 - Financial Times

Jumping into the next cycle

TS Lombard highlight that the US market remains attractive for foreign-based investors. Treasuries are a “high yielder” among sovereign bonds.

17 May 2020 - Bloomberg

Americans Have No Clue What's Next on Inflation

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, argues that rent, which has been a source of consistent inflation for decades, will experience a drop that will “be bigger and last longer in this cycle.”

17 May 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China doesn’t need big economic stimulus, advisers and former officials say

“Chinese stimulus tends to work through a combination of monetary and fiscal measures. For instance, local government bond issuance is bought by state and commercial banks, with the PBOC ensuring sufficient liquidity for the transactions to occur,” said Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard.

15 May 2020 - Forbes

China Stimulus Takes Country Further Into Post-Pandemic Land

“There are rising market expectations of a strong fiscal stimulus and other policy responses to support growth,” says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist with TS Lombard.

15 May 2020 - Financial Times

China industry rebounds in April from coronavirus lows

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said he expected a “stage-two stimulus” to be revealed at the NPC to counter “unprecedented challenges posed by the slower than expected recovery of domestic demand, rising unemployment, a deep global recession and continued US-China tensions”.

15 May 2020 - Wall Street Journal

China Is Powering Up Again. That Might Not Be a Good Thing.

Net issuance of local government financing platform bonds—often used to get around formal limits on municipal borrowing—was 70% higher in April year-to-date compared with last year, according to TS Lombard.

15 May 2020 - Reuters

Miners boost London stocks after solid China data

“We just can’t afford the risk of lowering the guards too early, which means we just simply can’t go back to normal anytime soon,” Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, said.

15 May 2020 - Barrons

The U.S. and China’s Next Battle Won’t Be Won With Tariffs

There could still be some wiggle room from the U.S., though, with foreign companies like Taiwan Semi potentially getting export licenses in return for promises to invest or create jobs in the U.S., says Rory Green, an analyst at independent research firm TS Lombard.

15 May 2020 - Barrons

U.S.-China Relations Keep Getting Worse. It’s All About Technology.

TS Lombard analyst Rory Green said in an email that Taiwan Semi’s plant news ahead of the export restriction move was no coincidence and foreign companies may get licenses from the U.S. in return for foreign direct investment or job creation promises.

14 May 2020 - CNBC

Markets have got ‘one more leg down,’ strategist says, defending his ‘bunker mentality’

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, also shared Harnett’s outlook, warning in April that the economic stimulus measures being seen worldwide would not facilitate the recovery markets are anticipating.

12 May 2020 - Marketwatch

The Fed is going to buy ETFs. What does it mean?

“All of this is to make sure that people who want to sell have a buyer,” explained Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard

12 May 2020 - Forbes

Medical Journal ‘The Lancet’ Politicizes Coronavirus, Warns Brazil President Needs To Go

TS Lombard called them “surprisingly efficient” in its analysis to investor clients last week.

08 May 2020 - Reuters

Great Depression-like U.S. job losses, unemployment rate expected in April

“Given the expected shift in consumer behavior reflecting insecurities regarding health, wealth, income, and employment, many of these firms will not reopen or, if they do reopen, hire fewer people,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard in New York. 

07 May 2020 - Bloomberg

Iraq Budget Battle Looms as Saddam-Era Bond Plan Falters

The Gulf nation may try to benefit from that initiative and seek relief in any form possible, according to Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at London-based TS Lombard.
 

07 May 2020 - Barrons

Trade Deal With China Faces Threat. What Investors Should Be Worried About.

Threatened punishments by the administration related to the trade deal may roil markets, but should fall short of being put into effect, says Steven Blitz, U.S. chief economist at TS Lombard.

06 May 2020 - Forbes

How Terrible Has Been Brazil’s Coronavirus Response?

On the economic crisis, the government strengthened the social safety net through supplemental income payments and that has been “surprisingly efficient,” analysts from TS Lombard said in yesterday’s note to clients.

05 May 2020 - Reuters

Euro drops after German court ruling fuels uncertainty

“Markets don’t seem to like anything that the ECB can’t fix, but as things stand at the moment, this is a pretty big bump in the road,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

05 May 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus lockdowns sent oil prices into free fall, but Chinese manufacturing data hints at brighter prospects

Indeed, independent investment research firm TS Lombard wrote that “based on 2019 levels, the drop in the price of Brent to US$20 per barrel would reduce China’s oil import bill by US$480 million per day, which, annualised, is equivalent to about 1.2 per cent of [its] gross domestic product”.

05 May 2020 - Reuters

Morning News Call - India, May 5

Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard in London, focuses on the "oil storage wars", analysing the fall in U.S. output, how long the demand-supply gap that is tearing the market apart will persist and what a recovery from here could look like.

05 May 2020 - Reuters

Markets now wary of pandemic scarring

Stock market bears such as TS Lombard believe policymakers can’t stop the cycle and the economy will remain in recession longer than the lockdowns.

04 May 2020 - Bloomberg

Fears Mount About Inflation Returning With a Vengeance

“What we are doing is creating a policy framework that has an inflation bias in it, which is the first time we’ve had that in generations,” said Dario Perkins, chief European economist at TS Lombard.

04 May 2020 - Bloomberg

Ariana Grande Knows How to Deal With This Crisis

But as Dario Perkins of TS Lombard points out, governments have adopted a wartime response of huge fiscal spending, and in the process are “diluting the anti-inflation bias they built into macro policy institutions after the 1970s.”

04 May 2020 - Reuters

European stocks kick off May on dour note, ThyssenKrupp leads losses

“An ‘unprecedented’ fall in real output last quarter will be followed by much sharper declines this quarter and only a modest recovery thereafter,” wrote Shweta Singh, Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard, adding that the ECB would have to do more.

04 May 2020 - Barrons

Add a Trade War With China to the Covid-19 Worry List

Countries like the U.K. and Australia have also increased anti-China rhetoric to distract from failings in their own virus response measures, says Rory Green, analyst at TS Lombard

03 May 2020 - Forbes

From Drone Police To Second Wave Warnings, Russia In Full Coronavirus Panic

TS Lombard analyst Christopher Granville thinks that Russia is falling into a recession deeper than its last one in 2014 when oil was also in a freefall.

01 May 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China exports outlook dims as US and EU economies tank in first quarter of 2020

TS Lombard, a London-based economic research house, sees the decline at 40 per cent.

01 May 2020 - Bloomberg

In Covid Crisis, the Mob Is the Ultimate Enforcer

As TS Lombard of London points out, in real terms its GDP is lower than it was 20 years ago

30 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China economy facing uneven recovery, three months after lockdown

Research firm TS Lombard expects China’s exports to fall by 40 per cent in the second quarter of 2020.

30 Apr 2020 - Reuters

UPDATE 1-London stocks hit by Shell's historic dividend cut

“Central bank liquidity is pushing all asset prices up, but reality keeps giving us a very sombre message,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London. 

30 Apr 2020 - Forbes

In 2020 Oil Crisis, Russia Seen Coming Out On Top This Time

TS Lombard analysts led by Christopher Granville think that Russia is falling into a recession deeper than its last one in 2014 when oil was in a freefall and the Central Bank changed its policy towards the ruble.

30 Apr 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Federal Reserve Expands Business-Lending Program

"When the Fed is asking the banks to take anywhere from a 5% to 15% stake, they are telling you, 'We are lending to good companies that are in a tough situation because of the virus,'" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at research firm TS Lombard. 

30 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

Federal Reserve extends $600bn main street lending programme

“For now, the Fed’s message is keep markets functioning and get credit to small firms; without either, the robust recovery the Fed is looking to create will fail to materialise,” said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard.

29 Apr 2020 - Washington Post

Push to reopen economy runs up against workers and consumers worried about risk

“This is what matters. The risk is you’ve got to shut down again,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard.

28 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

Markets point to deflation risks for US economy

“Demand has just collapsed,” said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. 

28 Apr 2020 - Reuters

Futures jump with focus on earnings, easing of lockdowns

“This is going to be an important test for the market as lots of businesses moved online following the lockdown,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

28 Apr 2020 - Forbes

Money Is Still Pouring Out Of Emerging Markets, Except For China

As these countries try to bail themselves out, debt-to-GDP dynamics and accelerating capital outflows will also weigh on sovereign and corporate credits, says Jon Harrison, managing director at TS Lombard.

28 Apr 2020 - Forbes

Coronavirus Has Brazil In Terrible Shape As Wall Street Sours

Petrobras has a breakeven cost of $25 per barrel. “Their profitability will decline significantly if prices remain at current levels,” says Jon Harrison, head of emerging markets macro strategy for TS Lombard.

27 Apr 2020 - Reuters

Stock markets jump on signs of coronavirus cases easing

“What the market is still failing to appreciate is that despite the reopening of the economy, there’s still a very deep recession that the world will have to go through, and at this stage, none of that is priced in,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

27 Apr 2020 - Reuters

UPDATE 1-UK shares climb on hopes of lockdown easing; Novacyt soars

“Johnson returning to work is a powerful signal,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London. “What it says is that we’re going through something painful and threatening, but we’re coming out of it.”

25 Apr 2020 - The Guardian

America’s fracking boom founders as global prices and demand collapse

“This will be oil’s last dance for many US producers, as the Trump administration’s efforts to save the shale industry will fall short,” says Konstantinos Venetis, a senior economist at research firm TS Lombard.

25 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

The costs of fighting this crisis will be with us for years

Steven Blitz, economist at TS Lombard, reckons the “mammoth” deflationary forces of technology advances and ageing societies will intensify, offsetting loose monetary policy and the higher prices that will come as globalisation unwinds.

24 Apr 2020 - Barrons

Today’s Stimulus Spending Will Lead to Tomorrow’s Inflation

To be sure, the near-term outlook is for deflation or very low inflation, says Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

23 Apr 2020 - CNBC

Europe could opt for ‘helicopter money’ as the coronavirus destroys economic growth, experts predict

Dario Perkins, managing director at global macro research firm TS Lombard, also said that helicopter money could be an option.

23 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

China struggles with sharp rise in unemployment

Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lombard, the research group, said the real jobless population could be more than double the official number if the 50m migrant workers unable to find jobs outside their home province were included.

23 Apr 2020 - Irish Independent

Big government makes a comeback with blowout budgets to match

"The consensus view about what constrains public debt has changed in radical ways," says Dario Perkins, head of economics at consultancy TS Lombard.

23 Apr 2020 - Angence France-Presse

Crisis-hit oil market in frantic hunt for storage

"To put it simply, there is too much oil with too little space to store it," said TS Lombard economist Konstantinos Venetis.

23 Apr 2020 - Reuters

GLOBAL MARKETS-Global equities edge higher on oil rebound, stimulus hopes

“While markets are going to take this drop as being very positive, it is not a victory flag that recession is going to be avoided,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

23 Apr 2020 - Reuters

Oil stocks, banks drive gains in Europe; EU stimulus decision awaited

“Banks are better capitalized now than they were in 2007, but this level of bad loans, non-performing loans or loan loss provisions, which affect the bottom line immediately, they’re worrying,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, in London.

23 Apr 2020 - Reuters

Oil stocks, banks drive gains in Europe; EU stimulus decision awaited

“Banks are better capitalized now than they were in 2007, but this level of bad loans, non-performing loans or loan loss provisions, which affect the bottom line immediately, they’re worrying,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, in London.

22 Apr 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real at record low as Latam FX harried by dollar demand

"Portfolio investments will remain under the pressure of the risk-off global sentiment over the coming months, which will keep the BRL under pressure through the rest of the year," wrote TS Lombard economists Wilson Ferrarezi and Elizabeth Johnson.

22 Apr 2020 - Reuters

European shares gain on hopes of easing in lockdown measures

“Just as policymakers’ response to the economic aftershocks from COVID-19 will not be enough to stave off a global recession, so oil supply reductions will not lead to higher prices unless demand starts to pick up,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard.

22 Apr 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real at record low, Argentine bonds fall on likely default

"Portfolio investments will remain under the pressure of the risk-off global sentiment over the coming months, which will keep the BRL under pressure through the rest of the year," wrote TS Lombard economist Wilson Ferrarezi.

22 Apr 2020 - Markets Insider

A new analysis shows what states are risking by reopening too early: A longer pandemic that could kill more Americans and send the national debt skyrocketing

As noted by TS Lombard, an economics research firm, "rather than monitor traditional metrics such as debt-GDP ratios, many economists now believe inflation is the only limit on government borrowing."

22 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

Negotiating demand shocks

Among the doubters, TS Lombard observes: “Equities remain short of pre-Covid levels for good reason — even the most optimistic investors are more uncertain than they were before the crisis. And with current valuations unsustainably high, the market will drop sharply yet again, irrespective of Fed actions.”

22 Apr 2020 - CNBC

Stocks close flat after wild session as investors assess Gilead coronavirus treatment

"The resulting action is highly damaging for many oil producers and certainly implies a sharp fallback in US shale fracking, contributing to much weaker US exports and capex later this year," says Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard.

21 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China’s credit push struggles as banks weigh risks of lending to cash-strapped small businesses

Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard, said that support from the PBOC may not be enough for as many as 5 per cent to 10 per cent of small firms.

21 Apr 2020 - Financial Times Alphaville

Markets Now - Tuesday 21st April 2020

Our extra credit additional reading list starts with TS Lombard: "Demand for crude from refineries is drying up, exacerbating the supply glut."

21 Apr 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Oil-sensitive Mexican, Colombian pesos lead losses in Latam

"With demand expectations depressed and macro visibility restricted, it is hard even for contrarians to turn bullish on oil right now," wrote Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard.

21 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

Storing up trouble beyond energy

TS Lombard’s Konstantinos Venetis argues that for all the current pain, a year from now, “do not be surprised if the market’s focus has shifted to upside oil price risks on the back of lower shale output, well productivity challenges, deficient capex and increasing M&A activity”. 

21 Apr 2020 - Barrons

Oil’s Collapse Puts Even More Pressure on Emerging Markets. Why Mexico Is the Most Vulnerable

But low demand and the sharp drop in oil prices are disinflationary, giving emerging market central bankers room to cut rates to record lows, Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard, says.

20 Apr 2020 - Reuters

Futures pinned as oil price slump hammers energy stocks

“The recovery will be much slower than the market is currently pricing in simply because social distancing measures can be relaxed but not removed until we have a vaccine or a very effective cure,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

20 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China’s slow economic reboot continues but power surge suggests light at the end of tunnel

“Retail activity still appears sluggish. The crisis has highlighted the number of poor people in China and the extent of the inequality that has emerged during four decades of growth,” wrote TS Lombard analysts in a note.

20 Apr 2020 - Forbes

Three Reasons Why The Stock Market Has Further To Fall

Regarding the recent flare-up of new cases in Singapore and Japan: both countries avoided the initial outbreak, so this is more like their first wave than a second one, says Steven Blitz, chief economist for TS Lombard.

20 Apr 2020 - Reuters

Column: Inflation Cassandras return at strangest hour

“Even with rose-tinted glasses on, we can see the global economy will devolve into regional blocs, much more self-contained than heretofore,” economists at TS Lombard argued.

20 Apr 2020 - Marketwatch

S&P 500 cash spending will “plunge by a record 33%” in 2020 firms scramble to shore up balance sheets, says Goldman Sachs

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard told MarketWatch that this drop off in corporate spending will deal a serious blow to the U.S. economy.

20 Apr 2020 - Marketwatch

The S&P 500 may slump below 2,000 by summer, even with the Fed’s help, predicts economist

Now chief economist at TS Lombard in London, Dumas recalls a story told by TS Lombard colleague Larry Brainard, when Mexico in August 1982 told the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund it couldn’t service its debt.

17 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Job losses from coronavirus pandemic could force 11 million into poverty in Asia, International Finance Corporation says

Charles Dumas, chief economist at independent research firm TS Lombard, said the status of the pandemic in emerging market countries other than China – where the first reports of infections emerged late last year – is lagging behind developed countries by three weeks or more.

17 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China refuses to be beholden to US dollar even as pandemic creates shortage

This means it is difficult to see an end to US dollar dominance underpinning global financing conditions in the absence of a more rapid progress of yuan internationalisation, said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard.

17 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China’s Xi Jinping promises action as economic growth machine stalls in first quarter of 2020

The severe downturns in the Eurozone and American economies, meanwhile, mean analysts at TS Lombard are now expecting Chinese exports to drop by 40 per cent in the second quarter – a mind-boggling figure by any standards, but even more so by those of the world’s biggest trading nation.

17 Apr 2020 - Barrons

China Is Reopening Its Economy. It’s Still Waiting for the Rebound.

“The key takeaway for the U.S. is that a ‘snap back’ is very difficult to achieve. This applies doubly so to the U.S., which doesn’t’ have large state-controlled industrial enterprises it can force back to work early,” said TS Lombard economist Rory Green in an interview. 

17 Apr 2020 - Forbes

In China’s Post-Pandemic Recovery, Beware Of A ‘False Dawn’

TS Lombard analysts led by its China team chairman Jonathan Fenby said in a note to clients on Thursday that investors should be wary of ‘false dawns’ in economic data.

17 Apr 2020 - Fortune

China’s historic GDP decline signals demand for more stimulus—but will Beijing act?

According to Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at financial advisory TS Lombard, the slowing decline is just a sign of the economy restarting naturally.

16 Apr 2020 - Forbes

India Extends Coronavirus Lockdown As Economy Gets Choked

“Modi seems to favour a very gradual exit from the lockdown, which has effectively shut 75% of the economy. In case of any easing of restrictions, we expect widespread partial shutdowns will continue at least until June.” -  Shumita Deveshwar, co-director India research, TS Lombard

16 Apr 2020 - CNBC

Coronavirus crisis threatens to derail post-Brexit trade talks

“The pandemic has completely taken over the agenda in both the EU and in London, and relegated the Brexit talks to a secondary issue,” Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC on Thursday.

16 Apr 2020 - Forbes

Investors Ask How Long ECB Can Absorb Eurozone's Economic Pain

Economists at TS Lombard, a market-research company, estimate that both countries' debt could soar above 200% of GDP by 2025.

16 Apr 2020 - Marketwatch

Fool me twice? For businesses and consumers, coronavirus is the financial crisis all over again

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, thinks it won’t just be consumers ramping up their precautionary saving, but firms will adjust behavior as well. And that means relying less on workers.

16 Apr 2020 - CNBC

China says its economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter as the country battled coronavirus

"A massive domestic demand shock tells us that after coronavirus, even after the lockdowns have been lifted, people are cautious to consume. Shopping malls are open but they are not consuming, and that is the key." - Bo Zhuang, Chief China economist at TS Lombard.

15 Apr 2020 - The Moscow Times

In 4th Coronavirus Address, Putin Calls for Stronger Business Support

“The small scale of economic support measures will deepen the recession,” Christopher Granville, managing director of TS Lombard said in a research note Wednesday. 

15 Apr 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets hit by IMF warning, cheap oil

"Many EMs simply don’t have the resources to come out of this well, especially in frontier markets. This will result in garden-variety types of sovereign bond defaults, ala Argentina, where investors lose influence as the IMF aids and determines what happens to the debt," TS Lombard analysts wrote in a note.

15 Apr 2020 - Marketwatch

Restaurants and hotels, devastated by coronavirus, face long and painful recovery

“When you are in season, you tell people who are at risk stay home,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard. 

15 Apr 2020 - Forbes

Ray Dalio: ‘Crazy’ To Hold Bonds

The scale of downgrades is still less than the Taper Tantrum in 2013 and the latest downgrades have not yet reversed the upgrades seen in 2019, notes a T.S. Lombard report edited by Jon Harrison yesterday.

14 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Cold War rivals fought disease together. Why not China and the US in the face of the coronavirus crisis?

“By 2021, the number of [5G] base stations in China will comfortably exceed the rest of the world combined,” wrote Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard, an independent investment research provider, on April 9.

14 Apr 2020 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Aktienbewertung ist jetzt ein Wagnis

Charles Dumas vom Researchhaus TS Lombard erwartet einen deutlichen Rückgang des S&P 500: «Wir haben einen Aktienmarkt, der die Fakten verleugnet – er ist weit entfernt von einer Kapitulation.

13 Apr 2020 - Marketplace

The race for antibodies

“The most important thing [for the economy] is not monetary and fiscal policy,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

12 Apr 2020 - OILPRICE.COM

How China Is Capitalizing On The Coronavirus Chaos

“The reaction of the Chinese authorities has been more rapid and rigorous than during the 2003 SARS epidemic, with the more relevant comparison being with 2008, when China faced a succession of tests: the 8.0-measured earthquake in May, the Olympics in August and the global financial crisis in the autumn,” highlighted Larry Brainard, chairman of the emerging markets panel for TS Lombard, in London.

11 Apr 2020 - The Australian

Coronavirus: Indonesia in need is the region’s nightmare

“Indonesia is the worst positioned to contain the virus”, London-based analysts TS Lombard warned this month after comparing the readiness of Southeast Asia’s largest economy with Thailand and the Philippines.

09 Apr 2020 - The Moscow Times

Coronavirus Hits Russian Markets | April 9

Oliver Brennan of T.S. Lombard fears the latter, in a research note published Wednesday, he highlighted how uncertainty over the spread of the virus and potential infections, particularly in the U.S., shouldn’t warrant market optimism just yet.

09 Apr 2020 - Bloomberg

Wall St. Calling Traders Back to the Office (Podcast)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, also discusses the latest Fed minutes and talks about the outlook for the economy.

09 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

Markets are only starting to come to terms with the new normal

According to Andrea Cicione at TS Lombard, investors are only starting to come to terms with “the macro consequences” of the pandemic and that the “new normal” of the post-virus world is yet to take shape.

09 Apr 2020 - Forbes

JP Morgan Now Sees 40% Plunge In GDP, Unemployment Surge To 20%

Yet Steve Blitz, economist at TS Lombard, put things in perspective in an email exchange: “This is not about boosting animal spirits, the animals are still caged.”

07 Apr 2020 - Reuters

European shares climb on signs of waning coronavirus cases

“We see this rally as a necessary part of price discovery and finding a new bottom,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

07 Apr 2020 - Nikkei Asian Review

Indonesia in 'worst' position as coronavirus attacks ASEAN bloc

London-based consultancy TS Lombard, which has compared the outbreak responses of Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, said Southeast Asia's largest economy is "the worst positioned to contain the virus."

07 Apr 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: China’s state pension fund under increasing pressure after fee cuts to help struggling businesses

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said the deficits within provincial pensions are due to a mismatch between where wage earners make contributions and where retirees receive their payouts. 

07 Apr 2020 - Bloomberg

A Bull’s Conundrum: Rally In Stocks Is Built on Staying Inside

“The lock-down is economically ruinous -- make no mistake about it,” wrote Charles Dumas at the TS Lombard research shop.

07 Apr 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets extend gains as slowing coronavirus cases brew optimism

"Mexico's economy is likely to plunge deeper into recession this year, even as the federal government's belated measures to control the spread of the coronavirus will add to growing risks ahead," TS Lombard wrote in a note.

07 Apr 2020 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Bodenbildung oder Bullenfalle?

In den vergangenen zehn Baissen markierte laut dem Researchhaus TS Lombard nur zwei Mal – 1961 und 1966 – die erste Erholungsrally von 10% bereits den definitiven Boden.

07 Apr 2020 - Expansion

Wall Street duda sobre la reactivación económica y vuelve a caer

La alta tensión de Wall Street será habitual en las próximas semanas y algunos analistas, como TS Lombard, vaticinan que el S&P 500 podría situarse por debajo de los 2.000 puntos, lo que implicaría una caída del 25%.

06 Apr 2020 - CNBC

Coronavirus hits commercial real estate in the UK as retailers fall behind on rent

Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC: “There will probably be a slower recovery in retail rental demand, as some businesses will downsize (or) close; and it will take some time for consumption to get back where it was pre-virus, not least as unemployment is set to jump.”

06 Apr 2020 - Bloomberg

Hong Kong Faces Delays in Giving Cash Away With Virus Hitting Economy

There had been “a lot of excitement around the Hong Kong cash handout,” said Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard.

06 Apr 2020 - Markets Insider

One research firm thinks the coronavirus-roiled stock market could fall another 20% this year

TS Lombard lowered its outlook for stocks because it doesn't believe that a "V-shaped" recovery — indicating a swift rebound and strong snap-back momentum — is possible for the US, even after the coronavirus pandemic subsides.

04 Apr 2020 - CGTN

How coronavirus could change European politics

But, conventional wisdom on winning elections still holds, according to Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at research firm TS Lombard.

04 Apr 2020 - Fortune

Are we headed for a depression? Economists weigh in

"The way the quarter-over-quarter math works, if it goes down a lot in quarter one and it stays at that low level of activity in quarter two, [the rate is] zero," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard.

03 Apr 2020 - Financial Times

The only exit trade that matters

Andrea Cicione at TS Lombard argues the shock stage of the pandemic, marked by “high volatility in markets and unusual correlations”, is simply the first of three phases.

02 Apr 2020 - The Moscow Times

Coronavirus Hits Russian Markets

Oliver Brennan of T.S. Lombard fears the latter, in a research note published Wednesday, he highlighted how uncertainty over the spread of the virus and potential infections, particularly in the U.S., shouldn’t warrant market optimism just yet.

02 Apr 2020 - Expansion

Cuándo llegará el rebote de verdad a la Bolsa

"Los requisitos para una consolidación del mercado no están alineados", señala Oliver Brennan, de TS Lombard.

01 Apr 2020 - The New York Times

Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time

“The psychology won’t just bounce back,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, an investment research firm in London.

01 Apr 2020 - City A.M.

US stocks tumble as coronavirus fears intensify

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at consultancy TS Lombard, said: “The prerequisites for market consolidation are not in place, let alone for market strength.”

01 Apr 2020 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Chinas holpriger Weg zurück zur Normalität

Ökonomen des Marktforschungsinstituts TS Lombard gehen davon aus, dass Chinas Bruttoinlandprodukt im ersten Quartal 2020 gegenüber demselben Zeitraum des Vorjahres bis zu 7% geschrumpft ist.

01 Apr 2020 - Reuters

European shares drop as manufacturing crash spells more pain

“Because business activity and production have been slashed to extremely low levels and containment measures still have to prove their effectiveness, most firms are confronted with a dramatic fall in revenues, which is bound to lead to a rapid rise in unemployment,” said Davide Oneglia, Economist at TS Lombard.

01 Apr 2020 - Forbes

Federal Reserve Reluctantly Embraces Even Larger Role In Coronavirus Economy

“Will it all work? If the loans are well directed and offered out soon enough, two big ifs, it helps to hold the economy somewhat in place, a good thing, but it is not stimulus per se,” argues Steve Blitz at TS Lombard.

31 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

Economists Are Losing Hope in a ‘V-Shaped’ Post-Virus Recovery

“In any recovery, firms may need to sell shares or slash capex to reduce debt or repay government assistance,” said Charles Dumas of TS Lombard.

 

31 Mar 2020 - Barrons

Here’s What Investors Are Watching to Assess the Next Phase of Covid-19

As some countries like South Korea and Singapore have had success with their efforts, TS Lombard analyst Rory Green says strict social-distancing standards there are slipping, forcing governments to step in to remind people it is not over yet.

28 Mar 2020 - Forbes

The Coronavirus Recession Deepens: ‘This Is Not A One-Quarter Event’

“This is not a one-quarter event,” wrote TS Lombard economists Steven Blitz and Oliver Brennan in a research note.

27 Mar 2020 - Reuters

European shares fall after three-day rally, but mark best week since 2011

“Perhaps Boris testing positive contributed to the selloff, though it would have happened anyway,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, in London.

27 Mar 2020 - Barrons

Expect the Unexpected After the Crisis: Inflation

And the budgetary response is comparable to what we’d spend in wartime. TS Lombard economist Steve Blitz says the Cares Act will boost the federal deficit to 14% of GDP, staggeringly high, but less than the modern record of 27%, hit in 1943, at the height of World War II.

27 Mar 2020 - Barrons

Emerging Markets Have Been Battered. The Worst May Be Yet to Come.

TS Lombard expects the shutdown to take at least two percentage points from the RBI’s estimate.

27 Mar 2020 - Barrons

Why Asian Stock and Bond Markets Merit a Closer Look

"Our focus in this credit crunch, about to become more widespread as income losses pile up, is on small banks.…The Fed, during this triage phase, is more concerned with dislocations in the markets," say TS Lombard's Charles Dumas, Shweta Singh and Steven Blitz.

26 Mar 2020 - Financial Times

Global stocks falter after two days of big gains

“Widespread hopes for a V-shaped recovery from the impending recession will probably be dashed,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, who thinks the US unemployment rate will rise to more than 10 per cent in April.

25 Mar 2020 - Reuters

Wall Street rebound fizzles out as fears of virus impact persist

“What’s remarkable in this particular crisis, compared to 2008 is the response by policymakers because the speed with which they’ve revamped existing programs and introduced new ones is completely unprecedented,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

25 Mar 2020 - CGTN

Will coronavirus give euroskepticism a boost?

"Where it has to act collectively is in steering the eurozone economy through the crisis," said Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at TS Lombard.

25 Mar 2020 - Reuters

US STOCKS-Wall Street rebound fizzles out as fears of virus impact persist

“What’s remarkable in this particular crisis, compared to 2008 is the response by policymakers because the speed with which they’ve revamped existing programs and introduced new ones is completely unprecedented,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

25 Mar 2020 - Reuters

Investors look to 2008 for guidance on when to jump back in

“We ... haven’t fully appreciated how far this recession will go,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, in London.

25 Mar 2020 - Reuters

U.S. stocks seesaw as vote awaited on stimulus deal

“Obviously, the U.S. deciding to go twice the size with the fiscal stimulus declaration anticipated, is definitely good news" says Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy at TS Lombard.

25 Mar 2020 - Forbes

India Is The Asian Blindspot In The Coronavirus Pandemic

“The government is being proactive in tackling the pandemic, but there is little clarity on how it will deal with the economic cost,” says Shumita Deveshwar, an India analyst for TS Lombard.

25 Mar 2020 - Barrons

Why the Stock Market Hasn’t Hit Bottom and Could Fall Another 35%

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, doesn’t think the S&P 500 has hit bottom.

23 Mar 2020 - Fortune

Are cash handouts, tax holidays, and bond purchases really the global economy’s best hope?

However, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist with TS Lombard, thinks such an analysis is oversimplistic.

23 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

Shoring up customers is first step to protecting banks from coronavirus carnage, says banking expert

“We project the unemployment rate jumps to 10.6% in April,” wrote TS Lombard’s Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz in a note Monday. “This means we see 12 million people losing their jobs in the first round, but this is not necessarily going to be the high mark for this down cycle.”

23 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

The Fed is going to buy ETFs. What does it mean?

“All of this is to make sure that people who want to sell have a buyer,” explained Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard. “The Fed is taking both sides of the market so people who need to raise cash can do so.”

23 Mar 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican peso at lifetime low, broader Latam assets in red

"The Brazilian economy relies strongly on domestic consumption – about 65% of GDP – which will be hit very hard by the outbreak," Wilson Ferrarezi, Brazil economist at TS Lombard wrote in a note, adding that the country's economy would likely shrink 1% in 2020.

22 Mar 2020 - Latin Finance

Guedes: Finance Minister of the Year

Guedes' learned from his early blunders the importance of negotiating with politicians, therefore improving the chances his next set of reforms get approved, says Wilson Ferrarezi, a Sao-Paulo based economist at TS Lombard, a London-based economic research firm.

21 Mar 2020 - The Guardian

A hundred years on, will there be another Great Depression?

Dario Perkins, the head of macroeconomics at TS Lombard, says the longer the stop/start reactions to the virus go on, from social distancing to school and pub closures, the longer the recovery is likely to be.

21 Mar 2020 - Forbes

COVID-19’s Worst Case? 10.6% Jobless Rate, $1.5 Trillion GDP Drop

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard expects that by April the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% in February to 10.6% — with 12 million more unemployed than the 5.9 million total from last month — a 203% spike.

20 Mar 2020 - CNBC

The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen

When all is said and done, the unemployment rate will be 10.6%, and there will be 17.9 million Americans on the unemployment line, or about 12 million more than in February, according to a projection from Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

20 Mar 2020 - Barrons

What the U.S. Can Learn From China’s Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic

“As these measures continue on a general easing trend, it indicates Beijing believes that the virus is under control,” says TS Lombard economist Rory Green.

20 Mar 2020 - Fortune

Goldman Sachs just made the grimmest prediction yet about the economy in Q2

"The problem with giving people money to spend, is you have to be balancing that against the fact that you have social distancing rules preventing people from spending money," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard.

20 Mar 2020 - Fortune

Most second quarter GDP forecasts now range from horrible (-8%) to catastrophic (-15%)

Normally, models incorporate current data trends and then project forward what path they might take, according to Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard.

19 Mar 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Jobless Claims Rise Sharply at Front End of Expected Coronavirus Surge

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at research firm TS Lombard, said Thursday he expected the unemployment rate to jump to 10.6% in the second quarter, possibly by April, based on how the Labor Department collects data.

19 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

Echoes of the Great Depression? U.S. economy could post biggest contraction ever

Capital Economics sees a 10% decline in GDP, TS Lombard 8.4% and Nationwide 8%.

19 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

How bad is the corporate bond carnage? Highly rated U.S. companies are having their worst month on record

“In the prior cycle, the leverage followed greater consumer leverage that increased buying power,” wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in a Thursday note. “In this cycle, high equity valuations supported high debt positions.”

19 Mar 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies weaken, but Fed move helps them off session lows

"The stimulus announced so far (in Brazil) seems still timid compared with the health crisis," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an analyst with TS Lombard in London. "We don't see any relief in the near term for the real."

17 Mar 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: will a mandatory lockdown be in the US’ future?

“Reservations about China’s authoritarian system cannot disguise its apparent success in dealing with the coronavirus crisis,” said Jon Harrison, a macroeconomic strategist at TS Lombard, a London-based research firm.

17 Mar 2020 - Forbes

Coronavirus Causes A Dramatic Collapse Of China’s Economy

“The coronavirus is the simple explanation to these unprecedented drops in core economic indicators,” says Rory Green, an economist focused on China at the London-based consultancy TS Lombard.

16 Mar 2020 - CNBC

Supply impact of the coronavirus outbreak is waning, but demand shock will linger, economist says

“We will see some recovery, but this recovery, I think, is being undermined by the global spread as well,” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

16 Mar 2020 - Reuters

European shares slump to 2012 lows; travel and leisure stocks pummeled

“That pretty much surprised everybody, at least with the timing of their announcement. It was a large cut. On top of that, in terms of purchases, they said they’re going to go in quite big from the beginning,” TS Lombard’s Cicione said.

16 Mar 2020 - Washington Post

Dow plunges nearly 3,000 points as Fed intervention does little to subdue Wall Street’s distress

“All of this selling of Treasurys is telling me that there’s a lot of financial institutions that are under stress and need to raise cash to meet [margin] calls and that’s not going away,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard.

15 Mar 2020 - Channel News Asia

US-China trade truce at risk as virus hits global economy

The virus threatens "China's import commitments as mandated by the phase one trade deal," said Rory Green, economist at research firm TS Lombard.

13 Mar 2020 - South China Morning Post

Oil price plunge likely to spur China’s quest for energy diversification, despite short term gain, analysts say

“There may be some short-term economic costs if there is a one-to-two year period of low oil prices,” said Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard.

13 Mar 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: global economy faces historical challenge, with pandemic ‘anxiety’ set to scupper growth

“There are precedents, but not encouraging ones,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at investment research firm TS Lombard. “The collapse of markets and confidence in October-November 2008, and the collapse in 1974 were both dramatic and fairly sudden, with the market down by 50 per cent in both cases.”

13 Mar 2020 - Forbes

COVID-19 To Further Dampen U.S.-China Trade

The numbers could, however, understate the depth of China’s economic slowdown, says Rory Green, an economist at the London-based consultancy TS Lombard.

13 Mar 2020 - Reuters

European stocks close slightly up but mark worst week since 2008

“These measures that governments are putting into place are just restrictions to movement - these are necessary measures, but nevertheless, they will have a significant economic impact, which the market is still coming to terms with,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

13 Mar 2020 - Barrons

What Governments Need to Do Now to Calm the Markets

“The Fed is trying to make sure all this clears without dysfunction in the market, so whoever needs cash gets it without sparking runs or panic,” says Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. 

13 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

People Made Bad Bets, Now They Need Cash To Cover It (Podcast)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S Economist at TS Lombard, on central banks and the Fed QE plan.

13 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

Investors Scrambling For Cash After Bad Bets: Blitz (Radio)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S Economist at TS Lombard, on central banks and the Fed QE plan. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

12 Mar 2020 - Wall Street Journal

U.K. Sends a Jolt of Economic Stimulus to Cushion Against the Coronavirus

"There's no doubt whatever that this is a situation that calls for Keynesian deficits and not monetary stimulus," said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard in London.

12 Mar 2020 - The Telegraph

Economic shockwaves from Trump’s travel ban will crash across the Atlantic

The US had a stronger starting point, but will also see growth wiped out with the “cancellation of events, travel, shopping, and loss of revenue from China shutting down production and spending”, says Steven Blitz at TS Lombard. “Add together lost revenue and lost wealth and the sum is 0pc real GDP growth in the second quarter, as a baseline.”

12 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

India Pushed to Take Action

“The worry is how interlinked Yes Bank is with other financial institutions,” said Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at TS Lombard. “The uncertainties and headwinds to India’s growth revival are building up, and the authorities will have no choice but to react with easier monetary policy.”

12 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

EU Leaders Under Pressure After ECB Salvo Fails to Calm Markets

“The ECB cannot prevent a credit contagion, fragmentation or a recession by itself,” said Shweta Singh, a managing director at TS Lombard, a consultancy. “The fiscal policy response so far looks dismal.”

12 Mar 2020 - ICIS

Europe crude, petchems prices extend losses as stocks suffer 'Black Thursday'

"There are some gradual signs of improvement in the resumption rate in the industrial sector in China, although at a slower pace than expected ... Data outside of China will get worse before it gets better," said analysts at London-based TS Lombard.

11 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

Putin Isn’t as Immune to the Oil Crash as He’s Letting On

“Any such depletion of the sovereign wealth fund would leave Russia in a very vulnerable financial position,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard.

11 Mar 2020 - Financial Times

Coronavirus prompts boom in risky China share placements

“Private placements create ample room for corruption,” said Bo Zhuang, an analyst at TS Lombard in Singapore.

11 Mar 2020 - Nikkei Asian Review

How Modi won India's elections but paralyzed the economy

Private investment as a share of gross domestic product has slipped to its lowest level in years, while weakness in manufacturing and construction has been the heaviest drag on growth, according to data from consultancy TS Lombard.

11 Mar 2020 - Forbes

In China, The Worst Could Be Over

China is now past the worst, thinks Charles Dumas, chief economist for TS Lombard.

11 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

How the coronavirus spread is stressing out corporate credit as governments weigh economic stimulus

“It is easy to see how one third of this [spending] might be cut, or at least postponed, as is clearly happening with air travel,” Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a note to clients.

11 Mar 2020 - Yahoo Finance

Markets plunge on coronavirus fears, possibility of recession grows

Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, joins The Final Round to discuss his expectations for financial markets as the coronavirus outbreak worsens in the United States, and abroad.

 

10 Mar 2020 - Expansion

Dónde puede estar el suelo de las Bolsas

Según Charles Dumas, presidente de TS Lombard, las valoraciones bursátiles afrontan un doble golpe: por un lado, habrá una bajada de los beneficios por el parón económico; por otro, el mercado va a aplicar un múltiplo menos generoso a los beneficios por el riesgo del incierto escenario global.

10 Mar 2020 - CNBC

How bad could it get? Economists predict how the coronavirus could hurt the global economy

“The oil price plunge makes things even worse for global GDP in the near term, as those who are hurt by the drop in oil prices (i.e. producers) typically react to the pain faster than those who benefit from it (i.e. consumers),” Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at the research firm TS Lombard, said Monday.

10 Mar 2020 - Xinhua

Xinhua Headlines: Oil crash, virus fears batter global equity markets

"Sharp drop in oil market reflects general global economic weakness," Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist and managing director of TS Lombard, a research company, told Xinhua on Monday.

10 Mar 2020 - The New York Times

Europe is Probably in Recession. Can its Leaders Move Fast and Deliver Relief?

They could get very bad. The virus “looks likely to cause a worldwide recession and bear market in stocks,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, an investment research firm, in a report released on Monday.

10 Mar 2020 - Barrons

U.S. Stocks Surged. That Doesn’t Rule Out a Recession, an Economist Warns.

There have been plenty of predictions, ranging from a small drop and speedy recovery all the way to an imminent recession. Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, thinks a worldwide recession and bear market in stocks look likely.

10 Mar 2020 - Forbes

Face It, Trump Is A ‘Recession’ President Now

Add the lost revenue from Apple iPhone sales to canceled events like Boston’s Saint Patrick’s Day parade and it equals zero; as in zero real growth in the first quarter and maybe again in the second. That’s the base case, thinks Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist for T.S. Lombard.

10 Mar 2020 - CNBC

Market sell-off is a ‘gross overreaction’ to a ‘severe but manageable flu,’ Morningstar says

Pimco, the asset management giant, said this week that it expects a “technical recession” in the first part of the year, TS Lombard predicts a “major recession” globally, and Bank of America Global Research knocked back its global growth forecast again to 2.2%.

10 Mar 2020 - The Guardian

An Italian financial crisis is certain – the big question is how contagious it is

Charles Dumas, of TS Lombard, says: “The banking system is unlikely to be able to remain solvent or liquid in the current conditions of nationwide lockdown. The tourist industry is effectively dead for 2020."

10 Mar 2020 - Reuters

Oil and virus bring deflation back on radar for bond markets

“The fall in 5y5y swaps is largely a reflection of the collapse in oil prices, but there is more than a supply shock going on in Europe. So, the deflation risk is rising fast,” TS Lombard economist Davide Oneglia told the Reuters Global Markets Forum.

09 Mar 2020 - Financial Times Alphaville

Markets Now - LIVE - Monday 9th March 2020

A Tarantino of bullet points from Charles Dumas and Andrea Cicione at TS Lombard to bring our theme back exclusively to the coronavirus.

09 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

As recession fears mount, here’s why home prices may not plunge alongside the stock market

“Because confidence closely ties to the equity market there being no greater statement of confidence than buying that first home, the sharp drop in equities most assuredly will reverse positive trends in housing,” TS Lombard chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz wrote on Sunday.

09 Mar 2020 - Marketwatch

Here’s how the plunging stock market could cause a recession

“The root of this equity downturn is an exogenous hit to earnings from the response to the virus, not in financial conditions that the Fed can readily walk-back by reversing policy,” Blitz noted.

09 Mar 2020 - Reuters

Europe stocks end at eight-month low after oil price crash

“The shock to oil compounds what the coronavirus is doing to the global economy,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

09 Mar 2020 - Quartz

Zombie companies are hiding an uncomfortable truth about the global economy

The trouble with such low interest rates is that capital gets doled out inefficiently, said Davide Oneglia, an economist at TS Lombard. 

09 Mar 2020 - The Telegraph

Oil price crash raises the spectre of global deflationary shock

"The way out of it lies in (coordinated) fiscal stimulus from the world’s major economies”. By Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist at TS Lombard.

09 Mar 2020 - Sky News

Coronavirus: FTSE 100 in biggest fall since 2008 financial crisis on outbreak fears

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London, said: "The shock to oil compounds what the coronavirus is doing to the global economy.

06 Mar 2020 - Forbes

Coronavirus Impact: Lessons From China And South Korea For The U.S.

It’s debt relief that will drive monetary policy rather than conventional interest rate cuts. We think this is appropriate and essential - says Lawrence Brainard, chief emerging markets economist, T.S. Lombard

06 Mar 2020 - BBC

Yes Bank customers queue for cash after India's central bank takes control

"India's banking sector - as well as the wider financial sector with the shadow banks - is still under stress, and there have been no quick fixes to this issue," said TS Lombard director of India Research Shumita Sharma Deveshwar. "The RBI has been reluctant to intervene in private financial institutions but it had to in this case to prevent a run on the bank, as well as to control the possible broader repercussions due to Yes Bank's inter-linkages with other institutions."

06 Mar 2020 - Bloomberg

Why Divided Lebanon Has Left a Decision on Bond Default So Late

He and his ministers face “an impossible task,” Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at London-based TS Lombard, said. They “lack popular legitimacy, serving instead as ciphers for elite sectarian interests. A technocratic government cannot negotiate a viable path between the interests of those sectarian elites and widespread public discontent.”

06 Mar 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Steeper rate cut prospects push Mexican peso to one-year low

"It's complicated to assess if the central bank moves are the best response because Latam economies have little room to provide fiscal stimulus," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an analyst with TS Lombard in Brazil.

06 Mar 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Mexican peso slides on steeper rate cut prospects; Brazil's real at new lows

"It's complicated to assess if the central bank moves are the best response because Latam economies have little room to provide fiscal stimulus," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an analyst with TS Lombard in Brazil. 

06 Mar 2020 - Reuters

From Japanese government to Italian banks, demand for debt insurance rises

“EM economies will be hit on multiple axes,” said Jon Harrison, emerging markets macro strategist at TS Lombard. “Risk aversion and home bias among investors are likely to strengthen the dollar further, while the collapse of travel and economic activity will drive a renewed decline in global trade.”

04 Mar 2020 - Financial Times

The seeds of the next debt crisis

This inversion of the yield curve could intensify the squeeze, says Charles Dumas, chief economist of TS Lombard, if US banks now tighten credit while lending has become less profitable.

04 Mar 2020 - Financial Times

Coronavirus damps Indian hopes of economic upturn

“We have been slowing and there is no real sign of recovery,” said Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at TS Lombard. “Add to that the coronavirus and the potential implications . . . there is a big cloud over India.”

03 Mar 2020 - Valor Economico

Mercado questiona eficiência de estímulo adicional do Fed

O economista-chefe de Estados Unidos da consultoria TS Lombard, Steven Blitz, acredita que o anúncio do Fed na última sexta-feira veio em um momento calculado, já que existe um certo espaço de manobra para o BC decidir sobre a viabilidade de cortar juros.

03 Mar 2020 - Barrons

The Fed’s Interest-Rate Cut Highlights Worries About Credit Troubles

The cut indicated the Fed sees a credible danger of a recession, and is being interpreted as a move to avert a credit crunch and keep lending flowing for smaller companies, TS Lombard U.S. chief economist Steven Blitz told Barron’s.

03 Mar 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Half Percentage Point to Combat Virus Fear

"Finance didn't start this thing. It's not the Asian debt crisis. It's not a currency crisis, a mortgage crisis. It's not from Fed policy being too tight," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at research firm TS Lombard.

03 Mar 2020 - Irish Independent

Why the US Fed’s rate cut matters here

Dario Perkins, the top economist at leading consultancy TS Lombard, noted that the rate cut was not about offsetting a large decline in spending by consumers, much of which is never coming back.

03 Mar 2020 - Irish Independent

Fed in emergency rate cut to combat coronavirus threat

“This Fed knows there is not a lot of room left between here and zero for the funds rate, so they need to be judicious in how they dole out the rate cuts,” said Steven Blitz, US economist at TS Lombard.

02 Mar 2020 - Financial Times

Falling oil prices threaten to derail Putin’s spending promises

“If the [oil] price stays above or in line with the . . . [Russian central bank’s] baseline of $55 a barrel this year, and then $50 a barrel in 2021-22, this financing operation for Putin’s political [special operation] will stay on the rails,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard.

29 Feb 2020 - Forbes

Coronavirus: China’s Chernobyl Or The Spanish Flu?

“We think (Xi Jinping) still has ample firepower to resist challenges, as long as the economy does not crash and major players in the state and military continue to see it as being in their interests to remain on (his) side,” says Jonathan Fenby, Chairman of the China Team at T.S. Lombard.

29 Feb 2020 - Yahoo Finance

Three important forces, working in concert, we can't control

Going forward who’s to say. “It’s almost impossible to judge how serious this is going to be,” says Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard chairman of China research of COVID-19. “It’s an unknown unknown.”

28 Feb 2020 - Marketwatch

Opinion: The Fed can’t stop coronavirus from slamming the economy, but it could ease the pain

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, argues that one big risk is a credit crunch. The huge rally in the bond market has pushed interest rates lower, inverting the yield curve again.

28 Feb 2020 - Financial Times

Buying the coronavirus dip would be bold indeed

The second source of trouble is supply: modern supply chains are complicated and only as strong as their weakest link. If you can’t get one part, you don’t have a car. So it matters that TS Lombard estimates that only 35 per cent of Chinese workers were on the job in mid February.

27 Feb 2020 - CNBC

Market pressure heats up on the Fed with at least three cuts now priced in for 2020

“The Fed may have to make more active use of its liquidity backstops to arrest a worsening of global financing conditions,” economists at TS Lombard wrote. “Fiscal stimulus would also help. In general, time is of the essence — each risk can persist for a little before causing a tipping point.”

27 Feb 2020 - Financial Times

Tumbling markets reintroduce ‘whatever it takes’ option

Shweta Singh and Charles Dumas at TS Lombard make this point about the dislocations to global value chains (GVCs) intensifying from here: “GVCs are highly finance-intensive, raising the spectre of defaults in the event of prolonged disruptions. Emerging markets in particular are heavy dollar borrowers, exposing them to major FX mismatches. These risks have mounted because cross-border payments and FX deals within sprawling supply chains are increasingly complex.”

26 Feb 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Virus fears keep Latam FX pressured, Argentine peso hits 6-month low

"The mood in the market is cautious as market participants closely monitor the spread of the outbreak," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard in Sao Paulo.

25 Feb 2020 - Reuters

European stocks sink further as pandemic fears hit buying

“Treasury yields were already below fair value... They’re going down because they provide some insurance from large equity market moves. But when yields fall, typically the prospects of profitability for banks also come down, said Andrea Cicione,” head of strategy at TS Lombard.

24 Feb 2020 - Markets Insider

Cash-strapped Chinese companies say they could collapse within months as coronavirus spreads

"China will respond to the coronavirus with extra monetary and fiscal stimulus," Andrea Cicione, the head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, said in a research note this month. "This will matter little in the end unless earnings start growing again."

21 Feb 2020 - Bloomberg

Korea Trade Data Show Virus Disruption to China Supply Chain

“The data is likely to understate the extent of the fall in Chinese demand,” said Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard before the customs report. “A prolonged shutdown then evidently will weigh on Korea’s own exports.”

21 Feb 2020 - Bloomberg

Jonathan Fenby Still Sees a V-Shaped Recovery for China

Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China research at TS Lombard, explains why his firm believes China’s economy will see a v-shaped recovery following the impact of the coronavirus. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

21 Feb 2020 - Bloomberg

Surveillance: Markets Not Pricing Risk, Coronado Says (Podcast)

Jonathan Fenby TS Lombard Chairman of China Research, says the coronavirus outbreak is a big test for the leadership in China.

21 Feb 2020 - Bloomberg

'Bloomberg Surveillance' Full Show (02/21/2020)

Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard Chairman of China Research, says China's virus outbreak highlights how complex global supply chains have become. 

20 Feb 2020 - CNBC

China’s stimulus measures may cause ‘long-term damage,’ says economist

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says he expects “more aggressive” credit easing from China as the country grapples with the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

20 Feb 2020 - Financial Times

India should really listen to foreign bidders for its banks

Shumita Deveshwar, a Delhi-based analyst at the research boutique, said those trends owe much to the weaker economy as well as “sporadic defaults” and “incidents of fraud”. The country’s ratio of bank credit to gross domestic product, already low by international standards, has dropped even further, she added.

19 Feb 2020 - Japan Story

Olympics under pressure as Japan prepares for recession

Rory Green, the China and North Asia Economist at TS Lombard said that if the Olympic Games were to be cancelled, this would have a very serious impact on the Japanese economy. “There has been an expectation that the Games will spark an increase in domestic demand in Japan. There’s been a lot of government investment already in infrastructure and also investment by the private sector, for example in increasing room capacity in hotels,” said Mr Green.

19 Feb 2020 - Reuters

European shares hit record high on drop in new virus cases, hopes of China stimulus

“It is a question of how quickly China can return to normal,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

19 Feb 2020 - CNBC

China cuts benchmark lending rates amid coronavirus outbreak

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard, said the Chinese economy would need more “aggressive” easing.

17 Feb 2020 - Financial Times

Central banks’ influence on economies is diminishing

The idea that central banks can address any problem that emerges in markets is surely one of the most dangerous in finance. Since the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, it is reaching the point of parody says Dario Perkins, Managing Director for Global Macro Research at TS Lombard.

14 Feb 2020 - Wall Street Journal

Markets Hover Near Records Despite Growing Coronavirus Outbreak

“We have to remember that stock markets are not particularly good at pricing in these types of risks,” said Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at market-research company TS Lombard.

14 Feb 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real rebounds from record low; virus scare keeps stocks on edge

"The current situation is supportive of a weaker real because recent activity data has also disappointed," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard in Sao Paulo.

13 Feb 2020 - Barrons

Lloyds Stock Is a Post-Brexit ‘Pure U.K. Banking Play’

“To the extent that it jump-starts growth, that will be good for the banks,” says Konstantinos Venetis, a senior economist at TS Lombard.

13 Feb 2020 - Folha

Salto em número de casos do coronavírus derruba previsões econômicas globais

Para compartilhar esse conteúdo, por favor utilize o link https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2020/02/salto-em-numero-de-casos-do-coronavirus-derruba-previsoes-economicas-globais.shtml ou as ferramentas oferecidas na página. Textos, fotos, artes e vídeos da Folha estão protegidos pela legislação brasileira sobre direito autoral. Não reproduza o conteúdo do jornal em qualquer meio de comunicação, eletrônico ou impresso, sem autorização da Folhapress (pesquisa@folhapress.com.br). As regras têm como objetivo proteger o investimento que a Folha faz na qualidade de seu jornalismo. Se precisa copiar trecho de texto da Folha para uso privado, por favor logue-se como assinante ou cadastrado.

13 Feb 2020 - Caixin

Opinion: The Market Expects a U.S. Rate Cut, But the Market Is Wrong

The market is pricing in an 80% probability of at least one rate cut later this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve. We think the market is wrong says Steven Blitz, Managing Director and Chief US Economist at TS Lombard.

12 Feb 2020 - South China Morning Post

Coronavirus: Why markets can count on China’s economy to make a swift recovery after the crisis

The Chinese leadership “recognises the need for the party to be seen as instrumental in the containment and eventual ‘defeat’ of the epidemic”, the China team at TS Lombard, an independent investment research provider, wrote last Thursday.

10 Feb 2020 - Bloomberg

Did Germany Contract Twice in 2019?

Shweta Singh, global macro and EU economics at TS Lombard, discusses Germany’s economy and her outlook for growth. She speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: European Open.” (Source: Bloomberg)

10 Feb 2020 - Reuters

European shares end flat, Irish stocks battered after election

While Germany’s economy may be the most hit by the outbreak, it could also be the one that benefits the most when China rolls out massive stimulus to support its economy, said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard. A need to ramp up infrastructure may see it tap Germany’s expertise, he said.

10 Feb 2020 - OILPRICE.COM

Oil Traders Could Lose Big On Coronavirus Panic

Overall, Rory Green, Asia analyst for TS Lombard, in London, told OilPrice.com last week, expects just a one-off one and a half percentage point shock to China’s Q1 year-on-year GDP growth, necessitating pushing back the previous projection of an economic stabilization in Q1 back to Q2 this year instead.

08 Feb 2020 - South China Morning Post

China’s key agricultural sector starts to evolve, but can the whole country embrace the new rural economy?

Boosting the rural income share of the country’s gross domestic product was tied to two interrelated areas of reform – land ownership and China’s household registration system, the hukou, said Rory Green, TS Lombard’s China and North Asia economist.

06 Feb 2020 - Bloomberg

RBI May Cut Rates Later This Year, TS Lombard Says

Shumita Deveshwar, India research director at TS Lombard, talks about the country's economy, monetary and fiscal policies.

05 Feb 2020 - CNBC

The EU is seeking to heal years of infighting with new spending rules

“The Commission’s position is no secret: Economy Commissioner (Paolo) Gentiloni in particular thinks that the rules are too hawkish and too complicated, and that they hamper slower-growing member states’ efforts to revive their economies and to invest in the energy transition,” Constantine Fraser, an analyst at the research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC.

05 Feb 2020 - Forbes

Coronavirus Cases Approach 25,000 As Xi Jinping Tries To Calm People Down

“Uncertainty prevails about the extent and longevity of the coronavirus outbreak,” says Larry Brainard, an analyst for the China Team at TS Lombard. “Our base case assumptions are that the peak of reported cases will occur around February 10 and that most factories will reopen after February 20.”

05 Feb 2020 - Barrons

Stock Markets Are Calm, Even Though Coronavirus Keeps Spreading. Chinese Stimulus Is One Big Reason.

“We believe the leadership will understand the political imperative to act decisively to control the economic fallout of the current crisis,” writes Lawrence Brainard, TS Lombard’s chief economist. “The leadership’s need to ensure that expansion stabilizes around the official target of 6% is all the greater because of other challenges it faces: notably, the unrest in Hong Kong and the Democratic Progressive Party victory in the Taiwan elections as well as the future of relations with the U.S. after last month’s ‘phase one’ deal.”

04 Feb 2020 - CNBC

Stocks rally for a second day in a row with the Dow jumping 400 points

“The balance between deleveraging and growth is likely to be tilted towards stimulus in order to make up ground lost due to the virus and quarantine,” said Larry Brainard, chairman for emerging markets at TS Lombard, in a note.

03 Feb 2020 - BBC Radio

Is $173bn enough to keep China's economy afloat?

China's central bank will begin releasing $173 billion from today to combat the effects of the coronavirus outbreak - that's seven times the GDP of Cyprus. We speak to Eleanor Olcott, policy analyst at TS Lombard, about how effective it might be.

01 Feb 2020 - Barrons

China’s Economy Has Grown Exponentially Since SARS. That Makes Coronavirus More Dangerous to the Global Economy.

For now, industrial output may have deflected a blow, since factories were closed for the holiday when the epidemic hit. Shutdowns have been extended for two weeks, though excess capacity means that full-year impact may not be meaningfully hurt as long as they reopen by April, says TS Lombard economist Rory Green.

01 Feb 2020 - Expansion

Invertir en la era post-Brexit

Según Christopher Granville, director de análisis de TS Lombard, "para la libra y los activos británicos en general, la situación está en tierra de nadie. Un gran shock parece haber sido evitado, pero las incertidumbres que limitan la inversión -clave para la mejora de la trayectoria económica de Reino Unido- persistirán".

31 Jan 2020 - Marketwatch

Inflation isn’t coming and the Fed’s job is about to get a lot harder, economist says

As Steve Blitz, chief economist for TS Lombard, argued in a recent research note, “What the FOMC said in its statement about growth and inflation trends is what arrived in the Q4 GDP data.”

31 Jan 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real at record low as coronavirus fears rattle Latam assets

"The main sign that (the real) could be oversold is a strong devaluation since the coronavirus outbreak," said Wilson Ferrarezi, economist at TS Lombard in Sao Paulo, adding that predictions of the rate cut were also making Brazil's currency less attractive as a carry trade.

31 Jan 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil leads Latam assets lower as China epidemic fans growth fears

"The main sign that (the real) could be oversold is a strong devaluation since the coronavirus outbreak," said Wilson Ferrarezi, economist at TS Lombard in Sao Paulo.

29 Jan 2020 - CNBC

Expecting zero rate cuts from the Fed this year, economist says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, outlines what to expect from the Federal Reserve at their next FOMC meeting.

28 Jan 2020 - Barrons

The U.K. Just Chose Sides in the Huawei Dispute. What It Means for the U.S.-China Tech Cold War.

With the U.K. dealing with Brexit, Johnson is in the difficult position of needing to strengthen economic ties with both China and the U.S. “Boris essentially had a lose-lose decision. Either block Huawei and provoke China to curtail trade with the U.K. or permit them a role and face tougher negotiations when it comes to striking a trade deal with the U.S.,” TS Lombard analyst Eleanor Olcott said.

28 Jan 2020 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets bounce back from 'exacerbated' virus-driven drop

Amid ongoing efforts by the Chinese government to corral the spread of the virus, markets have been increasingly sensitive to the virus' rapidly increasing death toll and spread. "There's been some adjustment today. Part of the market is seeing yesterday's move as too exacerbated," said Wilson Ferrarezi, economist at TS Lombard.

27 Jan 2020 - Bloomberg

Pandemic Panic Is Natural, But Try to Resist It

For those with an interest in economics who fancy making some commission income of their own, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard in London has now brought out a handy 10-point list of “The Rules to Being a Sellside Economist.” I thoroughly recommend it to anyone who wants to make some money and isn't scrupulous about how to do it. - John Authers

27 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

China’s most indebted provinces face further woes in 2020 as pressure to help slowing economy grows

Weak prospects within the property market mean there is also little appetite for real estate development, which can hurt local government income, of which 70 per cent comes from land sales, according to Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard.

25 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

Explained: The economic importance of China’s Lunar New Year as the Year of the Rat begins

“The China shutdown and closures in [South] Korea and Taiwan mean that the East Asian export manufacturing complex is significantly weaker in the month in which Lunar New Year falls. Korean and Taiwanese exports are thus also likely to have strong February numbers that will fall away in March,” said TS Lombard.

24 Jan 2020 - Expansion

Los inversores temen un duro impacto del virus en el mercado a corto plazo

Eleanor Olcott, analista de TS Lombard, destaca que "los mercados financieros son sensibles a la aparición de epidemias, como sucedió con la fiebre aviar en 2003, la gripe porcina de 2009, el Ébola en 2014 y ahora el coronavirus. Esta sensibilidad se remonta al SARS de 2003, crisis que provocó una pérdida de 25.000 millones de dólares para la economía china. Las ventas de esta semana se deben al temor de los inversores a una repetición de ese año".

21 Jan 2020 - CNBC

China’s hypercontagious coronavirus has experts worried it could hurt the economy

“Government and World Health Organization reports indicate that the virus is both less virulent and less deadly than SARS. The response from Beijing is also far faster this time than it was in 2002-04,” said Rory Green, economist for China and South Korea at research firm TS Lombard.

21 Jan 2020 - Barrons

What Coronavirus Means for Chinese Stocks

TS Lombard economist Rory Green told Barron’s via email, the hit to the Chinese economy will be “almost certainly” less than SARS. As for the broad market, Green argues the declines represent an overreaction.

18 Jan 2020 - Financial Times

Reasons to be cynical about the trade rally

Investors should be alive to signs of the ceasefire breaking down. As TS Lombard analysts highlight, “currency stability and the expansion of bilateral trade are the most important for assessing the deal’s short-term durability since any non-compliance on these will be evident immediately”.

17 Jan 2020 - CNBC

China to stick to ‘phase one’ commitments, holding trade deal through US election, TS Lombard says

“Beijing is invested in the deal insofar as it helps the leadership’s drive to stabilize the economy and boost market confidence; at the same time, it is hoping for further tariff rollbacks in due course,” Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at the firm, wrote in a Thursday report.

17 Jan 2020 - Xinhua

Spotlight: Experts believe strong fundamentals, consumer confidence linchpins to solid U.S. consumption growth

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, echoed Matthews, saying that he believes the stock market plunge at the end of 2018 and the volatility in early 2019 made households wrap up their savings and cut spending, which created a backlog of demand.

16 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

US markets lose early gains on phase one trade war deal signing as traders worry about wider issues

Across the Pacific, futures indicate Asian markets will open higher Thursday, according to Rory Green, an analyst focused on China and north Asia at research firm TS Lombard.

16 Jan 2020 - CNBC

Trade deal has ‘no bite’ as it lacks an enforcement mechanism: Expert

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. and China’s “phase one” trade agreement.

15 Jan 2020 - Barrons

The U.S. and China Just Signed a Trade Deal. Here’s What Experts Say Happens Next.

Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard, said China was always happy to give ground on the trade deficit, intellectual property, and foreign exchange—major components of the deal. Chinese media was characterizing the pact as an “equal deal,” noting the foreign inflows that will now come into China. “China equities are set to rally higher as the sentiment of the Party and wider populace improves, the economy continues to stabilize, and stimulus starts to come through,” Green added.

14 Jan 2020 - ICIS

Chems shipping markets watchful but unmoved as US-Iran tensions cool

However, it would not be in the country’s interest to cut off all traffic, according to Lombard managing director for global political research Christopher Granville. “Our explicit assumption here is that Iran will not of its own accord seek to close the Strait because it needs to keep the oil flowing,” said Granville.

14 Jan 2020 - Reuters

LVMH rally boosts European shares ahead of U.S.-China trade deal

Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, suggested any indication of a time frame and possible agreements that would entail Phase 2 negotiations would be the most important takeaway.

14 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

Why the phase one US-China trade deal should not be scoffed at – it’s about more than pork and soybeans

As regards the specifics of the phase one deal, the China team at independent investment research provider TS Lombard, writing on Thursday, felt that “Chinese imports from the US will surge” and that Beijing will be able to “incentivise private and state firms to make sufficient purchases [of US goods], for instance by prioritising the restocking of pork, soybean, [liquified natural gas] and even semiconductor inventories”.

13 Jan 2020 - Bloomberg

These Great Jobless Numbers Are Just Miserable

The following chart, produced by Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard, compares the aggregate index of weekly payrolls (the product of average earnings, hours worked and employment) with discretionary demand. At the margin, it looks as though the current apparently booming employment market could in fact bring deflationary forces with it, and presage reduced revenues for companies.

13 Jan 2020 - CNBC

Two key moves from the Federal Reserve have boosted stocks, but they could come with a price

“2020 is going to lay the groundwork for what could be very difficult policy for them in 2021,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “They’re going to let it run through the year. Their big challenge is going to be at some point this year, there’s going to be pressure inside the Fed to raise rates.”

13 Jan 2020 - Bloomberg

Bank of Korea’s Direction Is Unclear Until Moon Sheds Light on Board

“2020 is the last opportunity for Moon to stamp his image on the monetary policy board before his term in office ends” in 2022, said Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard. “Moon has shown a bias toward fiscal and monetary stimulus and I think this will be evident in the appointment of a number of dovish members.”

13 Jan 2020 - Reuters

Carmakers and banks drag on European markets, London outperforms

“We think autos are going to remain a drag for the foreseeable future, but we see tentative signs of (China demand), if not getting better, at least taking a pause from getting worse,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

13 Jan 2020 - OILPRICE.COM

What The Trade War Ceasefire Means For Oil

 “References to the ‘glory days’, achieving the goal of US$10,000 per capita GDP and becoming a CNY100 trillion economy are appearing with greater frequency in state media,” Rory Green, Asia economist for TS Lombard told OilPrice.com earlier this week. 

12 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

China aims for ‘steady’ yuan despite US trade war turbulence

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at research firm TS Lombard, said she anticipated a stronger yuan this year because the phase one trade deal with the US – which is expected to be signed on Wednesday – might include provisions to keep the yuan within a bounded range.

11 Jan 2020 - South China Morning Post

Trade war deal: How Xi Jinping rejected Donald Trump’s signing ceremony proposal during turbulent period

“It’s too risky for Xi to travel to the US and put his own name to the trade deal, when it has the potential to be thrown out at the last minute by Trump,” said Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard, a research firm.

03 Jan 2020 - CGTN

These could be China's biggest business news stories in 2020

Given the new dynamic of cooperation, the China-U.S. trade war will be "largely on pause" through the first half of 2020, Rory Green, economist for China and North Asia at research firm TS Lombard told CGTN. "China will uphold its commitment to purchase U.S. products and will keep the RMB (renminbi) stable."

03 Jan 2020 - CNBC

Macron under pressure as France suffers the longest strike in more than 30 years

“Macron will probably eventually be able to claim at least a victory: his record so far is of refusing to cave in to union pressure, and he seems to be winning the war of attrition with the strikers, whose numbers are slowly diminishing,” Constantine Fraser, analyst at the research-firm TS Lombard told CNBC Thursday.

 

02 Jan 2020 - Barrons

China Gave Its Economy a Boost. Here’s Why Bulls Like It and What They May Be Missing.

Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard, sees the move as a positive for stocks, and not a sign of economic distress in China. He noted that the central bank ordinarily adds liquidity to the financial system in January, which is typically the peak season for loan demand,. The Lunar New Year holiday, which falls this month in 2020, will increase demand for cash to levels greater than normal, he said.

 

02 Jan 2020 - Financial Times

China steps up asset sales of Dajia Insurance

“The golden days for private financial holding firms, which grow by runaway debt accumulation, are gone,” said Bo Zhuang, an analyst at TS Lombard, a consultancy.

02 Jan 2020 - The Moscow Times

Russia in 2020: Where Are All the Foreign Banks?

“The main difference between the Russian banking sector and the whole of the developed world is interest rates,” said Madina Khrustaleva, an analyst at T.S. Lombard. 

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