Press

We maintain a strict media policy. To request an interview with a member of our team or discuss our press distribution policy please email zdl@tslombard.com

16 Aug 2019 - AlJazeera

Trump warns of risk of Chinese crackdown in Hong Kong

Rory Green, a China specialist at TS Lombard economic and political research group, however, dismissed Trump's suggestion, adding that a compromise between the protesters and China is unlikely.

14 Aug 2019 - South China Morning Post

China’s yuan exchange rate drop could roil already strained Hong Kong-protest hit economy

“If the US makes it difficult for Chinese firms to raise capital in the US, more Chinese firms may come to apply for listings in Hong Kong, to have their [initial public offerings] there. That would have a positive impact on Hong Kong,” said Rory Green, China economist from TS Lombard, an independent investment advisory firm.

14 Aug 2019 - The Irish Independent

Markets flash the red warning of a looming recession

Slowing earnings growth and weakening manufacturing employment mean that the Federal Reserve is increasingly reliant on a faltering US stock market to deliver a boost to sentiment, according to Steven Blitz of TS Lombard, and that means it needs to signal more rate cuts to come.

"The Fed can help by confirming the next 50bp in rate cuts already priced into the market when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in mid-September. We will see if they take it," Mr Blitz wrote in a research report.

14 Aug 2019 - The Street

Whipsawed Fed-Watchers Try Handicapping Rate Cuts but Must Mind the Trump Tweets

"Things have changed," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecasting firm TS Lombard, wrote Wednesday in a note to clients. 

13 Aug 2019 - CNBC

There's no one for China to negotiate with in Hong Kong, expert says

Jonathan Fenby, chairman of TS Lombard's China team, discusses the escalating unrest in Hong Kong.

13 Aug 2019 - South China Morning Post

How Donald Trump’s currency war may end up hurting the US economy, rather than China

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at independent investment research provider TS Lombard, observed last month that the US Treasury likes to hold enough cash in the TGA to “cover one week of outflows, which it has estimated at US$325 billion”.

13 Aug 2019 - OilPrice.com

China Prepares Its “Nuclear Option” In Trade War

The trade war with the U.S., though, may be the very reason why this policy is not being pushed right now by China, Rory Green, Asia economist for TS Lombard told OilPrice.com last week. “With the renminbi weakening, and set to reach 7.50 to the [U.S.] dollar level if the U.S. imposes 25 percent tariffs on all Chinese exports, it is more difficult for China to persuade the big oil producers like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, to make the switch away from the dollar,” he said. “For China as well, the timing is not quite right, as its use of Eurodollar financing is currently significant, it has a lot of dollar-denominated bonds rolling over shortly, and its balance of payments needs a relatively healthy U.S. demand profile, but China wants to get away from the dollar system and that is the overall direction of travel,” he concluded.

13 Aug 2019 - Forbes

Europe Will Be Next To “Go Trump” On China If This Keeps Up

“In our discussions with Chinese exporters the most frequently cited response to (American) tariffs was ‘to seek other markets.’ Europe is the only other market,” says Rory Green, an economist with TS Lombard. Green wrote in a report published July 12 that “Chinese producers are slashing prices and essentially dumping goods into Europe.”

13 Aug 2019 - Forbes

China Says Won’t Devalue Currency, But Market Will Anyway

"I think there is going to be this 'staircase movement' in the yuan, letting it fall 3% to 5% within the next two months and then keep it stable for about six months before making the next depreciation move," says TS Lombard's chief China economist Bo Zhuang. "They do this in order to stabilize market expectations. People in China know what's coming. I would say that if China doesn’t get a deal with the U.S., you will see this kind of movement in the currency: weak, long stability, then weak again," he says, forecasting the yuan to hit 7.5 to the dollar within the next 18 months. The yuan is currently trading at 7.04 to the dollar.

13 Aug 2019 - Reuters

Most Latam markets rebound on China relief, Argentine peso extends falls

""Key to watch will be how Fernandez tries to reduce market uncertainty and to quell investor fears with his next statements," wrote the EM team at TS Lombard led by Larry Brainard.

12 Aug 2019 - MarketWatch

U.S. stocks have taken a hammering but here’s why investors should be optimistic

TS Lombard says the latest U.S.-China trade spat is “different” and predicts that China will respond with further tariffs of its own on U.S. imports on 1 September. The chart highlights the rapid escalation of tariffs in recent months.

12 Aug 2019 - Bloomberg

Hong Kong’s Next Crisis May Be Economic as Protest Fallout Grows

“Longer term, this poses fundamental challenges to Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center,” said Rory Green, a London-based economist at TS Lombard.

12 Aug 2019 - Barrons

The Hong Kong Protests Are Much Bigger Than Just Hong Kong. Here’s Why.

For investors, the Hong Kong protests have already hurt retail and tourism, slowing foot traffic in shopping districts, denting tourism, and further dampening consumer confidence, says Eleanor Olcott, TS Lombard China policy analyst, in an email. “The cancellation of all flights out of Hong Kong today is unprecedented and will deepen the drag to Hong Kong’s tourism,” Olcott writes. “The emotive nature of these protests means that even when they do abate, consumer-oriented businesses that have operations in both the mainland and Hong Kong will find it increasingly difficult to navigate political tensions...A political faux pas on either side can instigate a consumer boycott campaign.”

11 Aug 2019 - Xinhua

U.S. stock buybacks to remain elevated without policy change in sight

Stock buybacks would remain high as always, Stephen Blitz, chief U.S. economist and managing director with TS Lombard, told Xinhua. Blitz said as interest rates drop to a lower level and stocks have come down, it's time to buy stocks back.

11 Aug 2019 - The Telegraph

As the global currency war heats up, have US-China tensions reached the point of no return?

“That’s the problem with thinking that the Federal Reserve can just cut rates and get the dollar cheaper,” says Steven Blitz, economist at TS Lombard. “If it cuts 50 basis points, you have a global round of central banks cutting interest rates.”

09 Aug 2019 - Fortune

Bully, Berate, Manipulate: 3 Ways Trump is Attempting to Steer the Fed to Lower Interest Rates

"It could be coincidence," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at investment research provider TS Lombard. "I think the timing is definitely suspicious." The sideways glance from Blitz and others is the result of a newly regular dynamic. Trump announces increased tariffs and uncertain markets fall. He lowers them and talks of a trade deal and the markets improve.

09 Aug 2019 - CNBC

China’s surging food prices won’t weaken its hand in the trade war, economists say

“There is certainly scope for exporters to leverage the trade war to increase their selling price. This will happen and is an additional tailwind to the more important domestic drivers mentioned above,” Rory Green, China and North Asia economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC Friday.

09 Aug 2019 - MarketWatch

British pound falls to new two-year low as economy shrinks

Oliver Brennan of TS Lombard says investors are discounting nearly a 50% chance of a no-deal Brexit. Based on options pricing, a no-deal Brexit could take the pound to a range of $1.15 to $1.20, while avoiding one could see sterling climb to a range of $1.25 to $1.30.

09 Aug 2019 - Reuters

Latam FX, stocks down; Argentine stocks surge ahead of primary vote

"We expect the pension reform discussion to conclude before October this year, and we don't expect much watering down in the proposal either," said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard.

09 Aug 2019 - CNBC

CNBC 'Power Lunch' discuss U.S.-China trade tensions

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist with T.S. Lombard, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss U.S.-China trade tensions.

09 Aug 2019 - City A.M.

Sterling spirals to near $1.20 as UK economy comes close to recession

Oliver Brennan of investment service TS Lombard said there is no “unambiguously” positive outcome for sterling. “The best markets can now expect is no no-deal at the end of October.” “This brings with it the risk of a general election by year-end, so the upside to GBP is limited by the uncertainty which such an event brings.”

08 Aug 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

China Playing The Long Game on Trade (Radio)

Eleanor Olcott, China Policy Analyst, TS Lombard, joined Rishaad Salamat and Doug Krizner on Daybreak Asia. She says China sees strength in being able to wait the trade war out. She goes on to consider the potential for a nationalist backlash against U.S. goods and looks at the mainland’s response to protests in Hong Kong.

08 Aug 2019 - CNBC

Expect more stimulus for the Chinese economy: TS Lombard

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard weighs in on Chinese economic data and the weakening yuan. He also says a 3% depreciation in the Chinese currency won't be enough to revive export growth.

08 Aug 2019 - Forbes Brazil

Por que a atual maior fraqueza da China pode ser o setor industrial

A manufatura chinesa enfrenta complicações no segundo semestre do ano. O índice de preço ao produtor está caindo, o que significa que os fabricantes dos produtos “made in China” estão perdendo poder. Essa fraqueza causa liquidação de estoques, já que companhias tentam se livrar de produtos encalhados graças à guerra comercial, o que induziu um crescimento insustentável de inventário na China, disse Bo Zhuang, o economista-chefe da firma de pesquisas e investimentos TS Lombard.

07 Aug 2019 - South China Morning Post

Is this the start of an economic cold war between China and the United States?

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at market research firm TS Lombard, also said that blaming Trump might become a viable strategy for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who faces mounting domestic and international pressure.

07 Aug 2019 - Financial Times

China’s economy faces currency devaluation drag

Bo Zhuang, at the consultancy TS Lombard, said a worsening economic outlook had made the Chinese leadership more open to a market-driven depreciation.

07 Aug 2019 - CNBC

Investors try to figure out Trump’s trade war endgame: ‘I can’t even tell you what victory is’

“If you want to be successful, you have to be strategic,” Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “Be very clear what the point is, how you want to get it, what is the victory. Because the fact is, you’re asking this question and I can’t even tell you what victory is.”

07 Aug 2019 - The Telegraph

Trump's trade wars make a no-deal Brexit increasingly dangerous for the EU

China’s latest defence White Paper retorts in kind, accusing the US of hegemonic overreach. Jonathan Fenby from TS Lombard says Beijing is knitting together all elements of the Communist Party’s military, industrial and technological complex for the long struggle, hoping to raise the political cost high enough to break the Trump presidency. 

06 Aug 2019 - Agence France-Presse

Weaponising the yuan: a double-edged sword for Beijing

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said the yuan's fall was the obvious result of "active monetary policy intervention" in response to Trump's most recent tariffs threat. It is now clear that China "is willing to tolerate further currency weakness in the face of the renewed escalation of trade tensions," Bo said.

06 Aug 2019 - South China Morning Post

Global financial crisis, recession risks raised as US-China trade war tensions escalate over currency row

China, which has prevented the yuan’s exchange rate from breaching the psychologically important level of 7 to the US dollar for the last 11 years, let the currency sink below that threshold on Monday, in response to “bad faith” negotiating on the part of the US, according to Bo Zhuang at TS Lombard, a research firm.

06 Aug 2019 - Barrons

The Federal Reserve Will Keep Cutting Interest Rates. Thank the Trade War.

Bo Zhuang, a China economist at research provider TS Lombard, argues the timing conveniently allows the Chinese government to "point the finger" at the U.S. while engaging in protectionist behavior to offset the impact of China's debt overhang on its "domestic growth outlook." At a time when Chinese businesses, households, and the government are relatively constrained in their ability to borrow, it should not be surprising that the government might want to support exports for the sake of jobs and incomes.

06 Aug 2019 - CNBC

Chinese authorities no longer holding back on the currency front

Shweta Singh, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, discusses the latest developments in the Sino-U.S. trade war.

06 Aug 2019 - Valor Economico

Cenário mais provável é de avanços e recuos na disputa comercial

Steven Blitz, da TS Lombard: China está utilizando o yuan como arma em retaliação à imposição de tarifas pelos EUA

06 Aug 2019 - The Telegraph

Currency wars: how does China benefit – and can the US strike back?

“The new threatened tariffs [on Chinese imports in the US] doubtless go beyond what China regard as constituting ‘good faith’ negotiations,” says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, calling this “weaponising the yuan”.

05 Aug 2019 - Financial Times

Trump’s latest threat risks prolonging trade war

“If the tariff round does go ahead and it lasts more than a few months, it could trigger a more aggressive stimulus,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lombard, whose own view is that the threatened tariff round could cut Chinese growth by 0.15 per cent.

05 Aug 2019 - The Street

China's Currency Slide Could Hit Soft Spot in Trump Economy: U.S. Manufacturing

According to the forecasting firm TS Lombard, it's probably a form of retaliation following Trump's threat last week to impose higher tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China if progress isn't made in the trade dispute.

05 Aug 2019 - Forbes

At Long Last, China Bears Draw Blood

"We think market sentiment in the current cycle is more resilient than it was in the previous cycle," says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist for TS Lombard.

01 Aug 2019 - CNBC

Chicken’s a winner as diners turn to other meat amid swine fever in China

Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC that chicken prices will follow pork prices upward in the second half of this year. “Poultry is now considered the safe option as health concerns mount over (African swine fever) contagion, further boosting demand,” he told CNBC in an email.

01 Aug 2019 - South China Morning Post

Profits of Hong Kong-listed firms at risk as US-China trade war rages

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard, said that the trade war has had a “mixed impact” on inventories, with Chinese tech firms having to hold large stockpiles and other industries drawing down their inventories, which could affect the results at Chinese firms.

“Given our negative outlook on industrial prices, the unsustainability of a prolonged build-up in tech inventories and the undiminished threat of future tariffs, we expect inventory liquidation over [the second half of 2019], which will in turn weigh on industrial activity,” Zhuang said. “With domestic and external demand tepid, and the risk of further tariff hikes still looming, producers will continue to draw down inventory, keeping production and orders for raw materials in maintenance mode.”

01 Aug 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Die Notenbanken geraten immer tiefer in die Schuldenfalle

Doch Dario Perkins von TS Lombard weist auf die periodisch auftretenden Finanz- und Bankenkrisen hin, die die grundsätzliche Gefahr hoher Verschuldung demonstrierten. Hinzu kommt die veränderte Finanzierung neuer Verschuldung: Die Kapitalmärkte haben auf Kosten der Banken ihre Rolle als Kreditgeber ausgebaut. Die Suche der Investoren nach Rendite hat zu einer Flut an «BBB»- und High-Yield-Anleihen von Unternehmen und einer Zunahme der entsprechenden Risiken geführt. Diese Kategorien machen heute 60% aller ausstehenden Unternehmensanleihen aus, doppelt so hoch wie 2008.

01 Aug 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Meet the Economist Who Predicted the Fed’s Rate Cut

After the Federal Reserve signaled a pause in interest-rate increases at the end of January, just six of 62 economists surveyed in February by The Wall Street Journal said the Fed's next move was likely to be a cut.

And of those, just one -- Steven Blitz, the chief economist at market-research firm TS Lombard -- predicted the central bank would cut interest rates this year, which it did Wednesday.

01 Aug 2019 - Business Insider

'Like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil': The Fed's latest actions left Wall Street disappointed and worried

"Fed Chair Jay Powell is cognizant of the global disinflationary impulses heading America's way - never mind tariffs." - Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard

01 Aug 2019 - WWD

Hong Kong June Retail Sales Down 6.7 Percent With Further Slide Ahead

Rory Green, China economist at TS Lombard, said Hong Kong could be affected by the outcome of the trade war and challenge Hong Kong’s status as a free trading port. “Passage of the extradition bill could certainly provide a trigger for the U.S. to question Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs entity from mainland China. Hawks in Congress have already cited the territory’s unique status as providing China with both a trade and technology loophole through which to evade U.S. export restrictions and tariffs.”
 

31 Jul 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Fed Cuts Rates and Signals More Cuts Could Come (Podcast)

The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis and hinted it may cut again this year to insulate the record-long U.S. economic expansion from slowing global growth. Discussing the news is Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard with Co. Hosts: Jason Kelly and Taylor Riggs. Producer: Paul Brennan

31 Jul 2019 - The Irish Independent

Economic chill spreads from Italy and Germany to eurozone nations

"With its deposit rates already at a negative 40bps, its balance sheet surging to 41pc of GDP and huge constraints on the bond-buying scheme, the ECB is pushing on a piece of string," TS Lombard's global head of macroeconomics, Shweta Singh, wrote in a research report published yesterday.

30 Jul 2019 - Financial Times

Italy’s economy struggles to transcend long-run stagnation

The global trade environment is deteriorating and Italy’s economic performance is “very exposed to foreign demand”, said Davide Oneglia, an economist at TS Lombard.

30 Jul 2019 - Forbes

Surprise! China's Weakest Link Is Now Its Manufacturing

Chinese manufacturing faces headwinds going into the second half off the year. The Producer Price Index is declining, meaning makers of Made in China widgets are losing their pricing power. This weakness will cause inventory liquidation as companies look to offload stuff they're having a hard time selling due to the trade war, which has induced an unsustainable countercyclical inventory build in China, says Bo Zhuang, the chief China economist for investment research firm TS Lombard.

The trade war has had a mixed impact on China's inventory, but its effect will turn decisively negative in the coming months, Zhuang thinks.

30 Jul 2019 - Forbes

Investors Ready For More Goodies Out Of Brazil

Now that the pension reform hurdle has been nearly cleared, the focus has switched to the tax system, TS Lombard analyst Wilson Ferrarezi wrote in a note to clients on July 24.

"In an effort to take advantage of the pro-reform momentum in Brasilia, politicians are showing a growing willingness to attack the thorny issue of tax reform," TS Lombard analysts wrote in the 10 page report published last week.

29 Jul 2019 - MarketWatch

2020 candidate Kamala Harris wants Wall Street to pick up the tab for her ‘Medicare For All’ plan

What’s more, points out Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, some investors can look elsewhere if they don’t like the U.S. tax landscape. “I can trade anywhere in the world and markets can open up anywhere in the world and I can just move my money offshore,” he said.

Market maneuvering aside, Blitz thinks there are bigger problems with, as he puts it, “this idea of ‘I’m gonna tax this activity to pay for that.’”

29 Jul 2019 - Bloomberg

Violence in Hong Kong continues

Bloomberg Markets: the Close' Full Show - Caroline Hyde and Romaine Bostick bring you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's show tackles what to expect protests in Hong Kong with Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard. (Source: Bloomberg)

26 Jul 2019 - Quartz

No, Boris Johnson isn’t the UK’s Donald Trump

“Johnson’s instincts are liberal in a way that Trump’s aren’t—Trump has given every indication that he is a protectionist authoritarian, whereas Johnson seems to be if anything a laissez-faire Tory liberal,” says Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at the TS Lombard research group. “The difficulty is, with Johnson more than with Trump, there is a willingness to say whatever is necessary.”

26 Jul 2019 - Bloomberg

Germany Just About Avoided a Recession Last Year, Says TS Lombard’s Singh

Shweta Singh, global macro managing director at TS Lombard, discusses Germany’s economy and manufacturing sector. She speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: European Open.” (Source: Bloomberg)

26 Jul 2019 - PolitiFact

Elizabeth Warren says manufacturing is in recession, but signs are mixed

Steve Blitz, chief economist at the investment advising firm TS Lombard points to that index as one sign that manufacturing is not in recession. And Blitz has others: Orders at U.S. factories went up $1 billion in June, he said. "A recession is not evident in profits, still positive, and not evident in employment — flat to growing," Blitz said.

26 Jul 2019 - CNBC

GDP slows to 2.1% in second quarter but beats expectations thanks to strong consumer

“The net on this is that given the Fed’s global reasons to ease and that market strength and hence consumption are similarly built on the expectation of lower policy rates the Fed has no option other than to cut 25 on Wednesday and see whether the data unfold to create the need for a further cut in September,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

26 Jul 2019 - CNBC

Stocks rise as Alphabet and Twitter gain on earnings, GDP beats

“The market owes its strength in large part to the Fed eases priced in. And the Fed has noted the slowdown in business resulting from the generally slower global economy,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “The net of this is ... the Fed has no option other than to cut 25 on Wednesday and see whether the data unfold to create the need for a further cut in September. The push is to keep equities up and help the world be safe for dollar debt.”

26 Jul 2019 - CNBC

Dollar hits 2-month high after US growth data

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, believes that with the GDP data, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would have a hard time convincing the hawks on the Federal Open Market Committee of the need for a quick 50 basis-point cut.

“So here is the Fed, faced with overall growth at trend created by the combination of a slowing business sector yet still strong consumption a function of stable if slower employment growth and a strong stock market,” Blitz said.

26 Jul 2019 - Reuters

U.S. Q2 GDP data buoy bets on 25-bps rate cut

“The net on this is that, given the Fed’s global reasons to ease and that market strength and hence consumption are similarly built on the expectation of lower policy rates, the Fed has no option other than to cut 25 (basis points) on Wednesday and see whether the data unfold to create the need for a further cut in September,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a research note.

25 Jul 2019 - The Irish Independent

David Chance: 'More of the same from the ECB is not enough to deliver economic security'

If there is a crumb of comfort to be had from all of this risk-taking, then it is that things won't be quite as bad this time when the music stops as in the last great crash, according to Dario Perkins of economic consultancy TS Lombard.

"The sub-prime crash was particularly deadly because the world's largest banks had leveraged themselves up to record levels using toxic collateral. When the value of these securities plunged, it triggered a nasty spiral of falling asset sales and forced deleveraging," he said.

"If the 'buy-side bubble' bursts, it would not have the same devastating macro consequences - though we would still expect a large decline in asset prices and probably a recession," he concluded.

25 Jul 2019 - Financial Times

Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ signal on inflation fails to convince colleagues

“Trade war concerns have swiftly moved on to a possible FX war,” said Shweta Singh, managing director at TS Lombard. “The bar for the euro to edge lower and boost inflation expectations may be much higher this time, while the assets that the central bank can buy have shrunk."

24 Jul 2019 - The Irish Independent

Sterling on slide again after brief 'Boris Bounce' falls flat

There is, however, a bullish case for sterling and Mr Johnson, according to Constantine Fraser, an analyst at economic consultancy TS Lombard. "Brexit has become a US-style culture war, in which substance matters less than the mood of the tribe," he said. "With a little imagination, repackaging...the 'Boris Bargain' could be made to feel like a very different proposition." He added that this could prompt a sterling rally.

24 Jul 2019 - Forbes

Modi Off To A 'Shaky Start' In India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's second term is off to a "shaky start", say analysts from investment research firm TS Lombard.

24 Jul 2019 - Barrons

China’s Consumers Have Driven Economic Growth. Here’s What to Watch to See If It Can Continue

Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard:

• Auto sales have been a weak spot. Though a popular gauge of consumption trends in the past, Green says the data have been muddied by factors beyond trade uncertainty - including new emission standards in China, tighter restrictions on buying cars in the biggest cities, and a growing used-car market—so auto sales may not be the best gauge.

• Disposable income is a better gauge. While confidence is weak, Green says disposable income is growing reasonably well, helped by wage growth and income tax cuts.

• Green says a savings survey from the People’s Bank of China is a more reliable indicator of consumer confidence than official stats, which show an increase in confidence despite the trade war. The PBOC survey though shows confidence has slipped while a perceived need for saving has risen. But consumer credit has been rising, which could help Chinese consumers feel more flush.

• Green says stimulus measures will help consumption and retail sales growth stabilize, but he doesn’t expect consumption to offer a major boost to growth this year.

23 Jul 2019 - CNBC

China's 6.2% GDP growth is an 'overstatement': Economist

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says, based on his own model, China's economy is growing at around 5% to 5.5%.

23 Jul 2019 - Expansion

¿Será Boris Johnson un kamizake o un caimán?

De esta opinión es Constantine Fraser, analista de TS Lombard. "Hay espacio para algunos pequeños cambios en la interpretación del tratado de salida de la UE, algo que dependerá en gran parte de la posición de Dublín. En todo caso, Brexit es más una guerra cultural al estilo americano, donde la sustancia importa menos que el sentimiento de la tribu y las señales de las figuras con autoridad. Aquí, la habilidad del vendedor importa más que el producto, y Johnson tendrá el capital político y el poder de persuasión que Theresa May no tenía en marzo. Con un poco de imaginación, nuevo envoltorio y retórica, el acuerdo de Boris podría parecer una propuesta diferente".

17 Jul 2019 - Politico

Brexit Files: Final showdown - Brexit prison riot fears - The economy, stupid

“It’s quite likely that a no-deal would set off a euro area recession, if only because of the uncertainty it would add to the existing slowdown,” said TS Lombard economist Constantine Fraser, pointing to Germany and Ireland in particular. “As things stand, [Germany] will just about avoid recession, but a no-deal Brexit could tip it over the edge,” he said. In turn, that could drag down the entire eurozone.

17 Jul 2019 - Financial Times

India’s Congress party forced to confront an identity crisis

But the longer Congress remains in leadership limbo, the longer the BJP will have to consolidate power without interruption and pursue its Hindu-first agenda, warns Amitabh Dubey, a political analyst at TS Lombard. “Secularism as a political platform has been weakened,” said Mr Dubey. “The challenge for the Congress is to redefine secularism — and they have to take this seriously, because the entire ideology of the country is under threat.”

15 Jul 2019 - Reuters

China home price growth cools in June, but investment quickens

Falling government support will inevitably drive down housing transactions and prices in these small cities, which will weigh on national-level sales and prices, Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said in a note last week.

15 Jul 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Slowing Growth Raises Pressure on China’s Stimulus Efforts

“I wouldn’t say it’s not working, but it’s not as big an impact as people thought,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at research firm TS Lombard. If Beijing doesn’t dig deeper into its policy tool box, economists predict that growth will gradually trend to the lower end of the official targeted range of 6% to 6.5% for the year. “Domestic demand is anemic,” said TS Lombard’s Mr. Zhuang, who expects 6.1% growth in the second half.

15 Jul 2019 - Reuters

Brazil's real pauses after rally, Argentine peso hit by Moody's revision

"Our base case is despite the second floor vote being delayed until 6 August, the reform is on track to be approved by the Lower House by a large majority," Wilson Ferrarezi, economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.

15 Jul 2019 - MarketWatch

It’s probably time to kiss that housing market rebound good-bye

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steve Blitz explained how that all fits together in a note released late on Tuesday. The pace of job growth has slowed, making it less crucial for home builders to keep construction going at the same pace, possibly leading to some loss of jobs and putting less upward pressure on pricing, which may help convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and so on.

15 Jul 2019 - Channel NewsAsia

Bo Zhuang discusses China's economy on CNA

News and views from around the region with Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist at TS Lombard on Channel NewsAsia (at16min40sec).

14 Jul 2019 - MarketWatch

With trade tensions escalating, here are 5 things to know about this earnings season

TS Lombard highlighted a whole other set of risks in the different approaches taken by U.S. and China negotiators that the U.S. may not be fully taking on board. The U.S. approaches talks with the view that it is defending a negotiating position, “but for China much of what the U.S. is trying to achieve appears to be a threat to the system that is fundamental to the power and control of the Communist Party,” TS Lombard analysts wrote in a recent note.

14 Jul 2019 - South China Morning Post

With China’s economy set to slow, what hope is there for struggling cities?

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said China’s domestic growth drivers, including investment and consumption, were weak and that Beijing was likely to use “quasi fiscal and monetary easing” to accelerate growth later this year.

13 Jul 2019 - Financial Times

Korea caught in the crossfire of trade and tech wars

Overdependence on semiconductor exports has left it exposed to downturn, says Rory Green, Economist China and South korea at TS Lombard.

11 Jul 2019 - Reuters

EMERGING MARKETS-Fed rate cut hints lift currencies to 3-month highs

“If they see the Fed is scaling back expectations or if they do just 25 basis points there could be some profit-taking,” said Jon Harrison, emerging markets macro strategist at TS Lombard in London.

11 Jul 2019 - CNBC

The Fed needs to cut rates by 50 basis points: Economist

Steven Blitz of TS Lombard says there's a "very good probability" that the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points at the end of July.

11 Jul 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Dumas: Fed Needs To Make Substantial Rate Cut

The current miss on the 2% inflation target means the Fed needs to make a substantial rate cut in July, according to Charles Dumas, Chief economist at TS Lombard. Dumas told Daybreak Europe’s Nejra Cehic the Fed had always waited too long to start a rate cut cycle - if it went for a cut of 50 basis points in July it would have broken that cycle and, he said, have a good chance of getting the US economy going.

11 Jul 2019 - elEconomista.es

La inflación a la baja en EUA da razones a la Fed para reducir los intereses

"El impulso económico parece haberse ralentizado en algunas de las grandes economías, y esa fragilidad podría afectar a la economía de EE.UU.", explicó Steve Blitz, economista jefe de TS Lombard, en una nota a sus clientes.

11 Jul 2019 - OilPrice.com

The No.1 Reason Why The Saudis Won’t Ditch The Aramco IPO

“The purpose of the Aramco bond issues was to facilitate the extraction of cash from the company and into MbS’s pet projects, allowing for the monetisation of the asset without making any changes to governance, as an equity sale would have demanded,” Marcus Chevenix, MENA analyst for consultancy TS Lombard, in London, told OilPrice.com. “The bond prospectus reveals a fascinatingly dysfunctional relationship between Aramco and the Saudi government, in which the oil producer is expected both to compensate the traditional centres of power for the money they are losing to MbS’s projects and to provide extra financing for the PIF [Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund] itself,” he said.

10 Jul 2019 - Reuters

MONEY MARKETS-Bets on U.S. 50-bps rate cut back in play after Powell testimony

“There is still a good chance Powell surprises the markets with a 50-basis-point cut,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

10 Jul 2019 - Barrons

Fed Chairman doesn't dissapoint the markets, signaling a July rate cut

By focusing on the global factors, the Fed appears "to have finally fully accepted the global impact of U.S. monetary policy," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Most global trade is in dollars and many companies, especially in emerging markets, have dollar liabilities tied to U.S. interest rates. Thus, a cut in the fed-funds rate would feed into a cheaper greenback and a steeper yield curve, which would boost growth and inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target.

10 Jul 2019 - MarketWatch

Fed’s Powell says trade worries restraining the economy, hints at interest-rate cuts soon

Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, said Powell and the Fed have simply come to recognize just how much a world that largely trades in dollars has come to depend on what the U.S. central bank does.

“Economic momentum appears to have slowed in some major foreign economies, and that weakness could affect the U.S. economy,” is how Blitz summed up what he called the Fed’s new-school thinking.

05 Jul 2019 - South China Morning Post

US-China trade truce increases pressure at home for both Trump, Xi to cut a deal

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard, warned that while markets have rallied since the truce was announced, a number of important issues, from intellectual property protection to Huawei, have complicated the trade negotiation process.

04 Jul 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

PBOC Needs to Ensure Market Confidence (Radio)

Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist, TS Lombard, joined Doug Krizner and Rishaad Salamat on Daybreak Asia. He discusses his outlook for the Chinese economy, where he sees the biggest risks ahead and the impact of changing supply chains.

04 Jul 2019 - Bloomberg

Trade Spat Highlights South Korea’s 54-Year Deficit With Japan

Rory Green, an economist with research firm TS Lombard says that while the measures could have “significant repercussions” for the global economy if they are made permanent and are strictly enforced, they could also backfire against Japan. “Samsung and SK Hynix could actually welcome a short-term supply shock, which accelerates inventory destocking and boosts memory chip prices. For Japanese producers, there is a risk of permanent loss in market share,” he said.

04 Jul 2019 - CNBC

Lagarde has 'political mandate' as she takes top ECB job, expert says

Jonathan Fenby, managing director of European political research at TS Lombard, discusses the nomination of Christine Lagarde as ECB chief.

04 Jul 2019 - Financial Times

It is rash to expect a rerun of past stock market booms in China

The absence of a general stimulus will not deprive certain parts of the economy of a boost. Consumer spending is set to pick up after reaching record-low levels this year, says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

03 Jul 2019 - Nikkei Asian Review

Jokowi vows to invest in tech skills for an Indonesian 'Golden Age'

TS Lombard analysis shows Indonesia's average net FDI to gross domestic product from 2013 to 2017 stood at 2.1%, lower than both Malaysia and Vietnam. FDI in 2018 dropped 8.7% to $29.3 billion, owing partly to preelection caution and fears over the potential impacts of the U.S.-China trade war, but also to bureaucratic entanglements and restrictions on foreign ownership in many sectors.

02 Jul 2019 - Reuters

Qatar's ' token gesture' boosts Lebanese bonds -- briefly

“I would say that the phrase ‘some bonds’ is very vague, and suggests a token gesture rather than a genuine program of support for Lebanon,” said Marcus Chenevix, analyst, MENA and global political research at TS Lombard.

02 Jul 2019 - CNBC

Hong Kong protesters disperse one day after storming the legislature

Some people are now using this as an opportunity to push for political change, said Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at research firm TS Lombard. There’s now a divergence between the anti-extradition protesters and those trying to harness the spirit of the anti-extradition movement to push for political change, she said.

“The anti-extradition bill protest was about maintenance of the status quo,” Olcott told CNBC in an email. “By contrast, the protesters now are asking for change to the political system, for a change of leader.”

01 Jul 2019 - South China Morning Post

What truce? US-China trade war uncertainty still weighing on global growth

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard in London, said ahead of the G20 the policy positions of both countries had hardened since talks broke down at the beginning of May. “On both sides, red lines have hardened in the past few weeks. The Chinese are now insisting, for a domestic audience, that the deal could only happen if the US immediately rolled back additional tariffs and made more realistic demands to reduce the trade deficit,” Olcott said. “The US, meanwhile, is refusing to accept any restrictions on its ability to levy tariffs in the future.”

01 Jul 2019 - Financial Times

Global manufacturing slump deepens as trade conflict bites

Eleanor Olcott, economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said falls in new orders in both this survey and in official data suggested China’s domestic economy was slowing, in addition to the impact of tariffs on the country’s exports.

26 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

Draghi Tests Legal Limits Again With Claim of QE Flexibility

Some economists have run simulations based on an increase in the purchase limit to 50%. If the ECB bought federal, regional and municipal debt to that extent, it would create space for 60 billion euros a month for two years, according to TS Lombard’s Shweta Singh and Davide Oneglia.

26 Jun 2019 - elEconomista.es

La 'japonización' no es el fin del mundo, pero para la Eurozona puede ser un gran problema

Charles Dumas, economista jefe de TS Lombard, cree que si la Eurozona quiere evitar una 'japonización' dura "tendrá que aceptar una unión fiscal y económica total y comenzar a descifrar cómo lograr una unión monetaria óptima, algo que los simples criterios de convergencia de Maastricht no han conseguido".

25 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

Bloomberg Daybreak: June 25, 2019 - Hour 1 (Radio)

Bloomberg Daybreak with Karen Moskow and Nathan Hager. Guest: Steve Blitz Chief US Economist at TS Lombard

24 Jun 2019 - CNBC

US Treasury yields lower amid tensions with Iran

Research firm TS Lombard forecasts oil futures surging above $100 a barrel in case of a full-scale U.S.-Iran conflict.

24 Jun 2019 - CNBC

Stocks close little changed with the June rally on hold ahead of US-China trade talks

“Financial markets welcomed the announcement that a full-blown standalone US-China ‘bilateral’ meeting would be held in the margins of the annual G20 Summit,” said Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, in a note. “That was an understandable relief reaction.”

“Judging by the more conciliatory tone from both Washington and Beijing last week, the likely optics of the Trump-Xi talks will resemble the previous G20 meeting in Buenos Aires last December,” he said. “Back then, the leaders’ friendly rapport supplied the impetus to launch a new series of negotiations, with an agreement to refrain from further tariff hikes or other punitive action for the following three months while the talks proceeded.”

24 Jun 2019 - Expansion

Un Brexit sin acuerdo es lo más probable, según Société Générale

Constantine Fraser, de TS Lombard, "un Brexit sin acuerdo sigue siendo muy improbable. En primer lugar, Boris Johnson prefiere un acuerdo a un no acuerdo, y hará un esfuerzo serio por alcanzar un mejor pacto con la UE. Y en cualquier caso, el Parlamento dispone de los medios para evitar una salida sin acuerdo". En su opinión, el principal escenario es que haya unas elecciones y/o referéndum este invierno para romper el bloqueo existente si no hay un acuerdo para dejar la UE el 31 de octubre.

24 Jun 2019 - Financial Times

Playing the waiting game

Christopher Granville at TS Lombard says investors should be wary of a “deceptive Osaka thaw” at G20 over trade: “The economic attrition caused by ‘trade war’ uncertainties, and the risk of derailment, will . . . persist for months to come. Since any deal will almost certainly have evaded thorny tech sector questions at the heart of the US-China strategic rivalry, the chances of disputes blowing up again thereafter seem too high for comfort. Any post-Osaka relief rally will be built on flimsy foundations.”

24 Jun 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Trump to Meet China’s Xi As Oil Hangs in the Balance—Energy Journal

The recent attacks on tankers and facilities in the Middle East are also weighing on the energy market and could create a similar situation to the Gulf tanker war in the 1980's, said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at the consulting firm TS Lombard.

21 Jun 2019 - MarketWatch

Gold’s monster run could reach $1,600, say Citi analysts

Equities and bonds are pricing in very different economic scenarios, and something’s gotta give says our chart of the day from Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard. While stocks are a good guide to the current state of the economy, the bond market is a better predictor, so look out equity investors, says Perkins.

20 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

Blitz: Fed Cut Validated the Market

The trigger for the Fed to cut rates is simple - it’s inflation not growth says Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Speaking to Daybreak Europe’s Matt Miller and Caroline Hepker he said inflation has been slipping back and Fed chief Jerome Powell is focused on getting to the 2 percent target. He also discussed the uncertainty surrounding the trade war.

20 Jun 2019 - Politico

POLITICO Playbook: Biden plays cleanup while his team gripes to the press

“The Fed is set to meet next on July 30-31, and investors in interest-rate futures markets have priced in at least a quarter-percentage-point cut then in the central bank’s benchmark short-term rate. ‘The market now knows the Fed is going to ease unless the data dramatically reverse,’ said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.”

20 Jun 2019 - Financial Times

China's US Treasury holdings are not a viable trade war weapon

While China is on pace to run a small current account deficit this year after decades of posting a sizeable current account surplus, its appetite for foreign assets remains elevated. What's more, at 42 per cent, foreign exchange reserves comprise the predominant share of these assets, as Shweta Singh at TS Lombard points out in a recent note.

20 Jun 2019 - Livesquawk

US FOMC rate decision reaction

TS Lombard’s Chief Economist, Steven Blitz, “We believe St Louis Fed President Bullard’s dissent was made public to underscore that, barring a dramatic turnaround in the data, the next move is a cut - perhaps even a 50bp reduction. “The Fed is not in the business of validating market pricing except when they are both heading in the same direction, and that is what the central bank did yesterday.”

20 Jun 2019 - CNBC

S&P 500 closes at new record as Wall Street bets Fed will lower rates, Dow surges nearly 250 points

“The FOMC reinforced the market’s conviction,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, in a note. “Barring a dramatic turnaround in the data, the next move is a cut - perhaps even a 50bp reduction.”

20 Jun 2019 - Forbes

Doomed: How There's No Way Out Of The Debt Crisis For Italy

"[...] it does seem a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ – another full-blown sovereign debt panic will happen," states a recent report from London-based financial firm TS Lombard. The report continues bluntly: The bottom line is that as and when a serious new crisis blows up, the Italian government is positioning itself to demonstrate to its voters that it has not sought to leave the Eurozone, but rather that the Eurozone is leaving Italy.

19 Jun 2019 - Channel News Asia

US Fed meet opens as markets eye shift in interest rate course

The US Federal Reserve opens its two-day policy meeting on Jun 18 to decide the course of interest rates. The meeting opens amid widespread speculation the central bank is closer to changing course as the global economy slows and trade tensions drag on.

19 Jun 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Hints at Future Cuts if Outlook Doesn’t Improve

The Fed is set to meet next on July 30-31, and investors in interest-rate futures markets have priced in at least a quarter-percentage-point cut then in the central bank's benchmark short-term rate. "The market now knows the Fed is going to ease unless the data dramatically reverse," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

18 Jun 2019 - South China Morning Post

Despite extradition protests, China’s economic stimulus and US monetary policy easing leave Hong Kong well placed

Hong Kong “will benefit from Beijing’s programme of measured credit and fiscal easing, which includes boosting infrastructure spending and encouraging banks to ramp up on-balance sheet lending,” wrote Eleanor Olcott, China Policy analyst at research firm TS Lombard last week. “The expected Fed cuts … will help ease monetary conditions in [Hong Kong], which imports US monetary policy owing to the US dollar/Hong Kong dollar peg.”

18 Jun 2019 - MarketWatch

It’s probably time to kiss a housing rebound good-bye

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steve Blitz explained how that all fits together in a note released late on Tuesday. The pace of job growth has slowed, making it less crucial for home builders to keep construction going at the same pace, possibly leading to some loss of jobs and putting less upward pressure on pricing, which may help convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and so on.

18 Jun 2019 - South China Morning Post

How Chinese machine parts manufacturer Impro Precision is mitigating trade war tariffs

But a TS Lombard report on emerging markets last Monday noted the Trump administration still presents a risk for Mexico despite the tariff relief. In particular, it highlighted that the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement by all three governments still “will not automatically guarantee companies a tariff-free environment for regional trade”.

18 Jun 2019 - Livesquawk

MPC hawks fight to be heard over deafening dove talk from fed and ECB

TS Lombard’s Konstantinos Venetis expressed concerns that rising inflation expectations create a messaging issue for the MPC.  “Essentially what the market seems to be discounting is a stagflationary outcome in which the bank largely looks through a currency-induced jump in inflation. The chief reason behind this configuration is persistently high uncertainty surrounding Brexit and domestic UK politics more generally.

16 Jun 2019 - The Telegraph

Washington can pull the plug on Hong Kong's economic model at any moment

TS Lombard said Washington is eyeing misuse of the "first trade rule" that enables Chinese exporters to whittle down US tariffs by first shipping goods through Hong Kong.

14 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

The Market Puts the Fed in a Bad Position

Rory Green of TS Lombard in London points out that the usual debt-to-GDP figures generally “vastly exaggerate the level of corporate debt by including debt from local government financing vehicles, centrally controlled state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and provincial SOEs, all of which are at least implicitly backstopped by the state.” Making this adjustment drastically changes the composition of China’s debt.

14 Jun 2019 - South China Morning Post

Hong Kong’s controversial extradition bill will damage city’s economy, relationship with the US, say economists

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at the research provider TS Lombard, said that Hong Kong, in the short term, would remain an attractive centre for international finance and trade even if the extradition bill passes. “But in the longer run, those benefits will become harder to discern as Hong Kong becomes increasingly entangled in the geopolitical struggle between the two Pacific Rim powers,” Olcott said in a research note. “The US administration is currently reappraising its China policy and has drifted away from its pre-Trump strategy of deepening economic ties with allies in the region as a hedge against the [People’s Republic of China].”

14 Jun 2019 - CNBC

Proposed extradition bill could get Hong Kong entangled in the US-China tussle, research firm says

There’s much at stake for Hong Kong, a special administrative region in China, with the risk that it is increasingly perceived as a “weak link” amid the U.S-China trade war, Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at research firm TS Lombard, wrote in a note on Thursday.

13 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

Износът на Китай към Европа нараства с 12%

Рори Грийн, икономист в TS Lombard, В развитие, 13.06.2019

13 Jun 2019 - Inside Arabia

Only Civilian Government Can Fix Sudan’s Broken Economy

Sudan’s political crisis was sparked by an economic crisis that continues today. A military administration will not be able to take the steps needed to fix Sudan’s economy, says Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard..

12 Jun 2019 - Reuters

Oil demand growth grinding to lowest in years as global economy stalls

Research firm TS Lombard said this week “export dependent economies in the Pacific Rim and Europe are badly hit and close to recession,” with the United States also “heading towards slower growth.” TS Lombard warned an unresolved Sino-American trade war “has the potential to trigger a recession in 2020, if not before.”

12 Jun 2019 - CNBC

Trump, Xi will meet at the G-20, but won't strike a deal: Economist

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says the U.S. could delay further tariffs on China after American President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the upcoming G-20.

12 Jun 2019 - Reuters

Far from 'devalued', euro surges as trade war hits yuan

Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard, said exchange rates were a lesser issue than some years ago when “currency wars” saw countries actively try to influence exchange rates to get an edge over rival nations.

“What you really need is to see global demand picking up. If that happens, euro even at $1.20 won’t be so painful,” Venetis said. “Currency depreciation can be a way to help your exports only if the world is growing briskly and demand is healthy.”

11 Jun 2019 - Barrons

A Trade War Won’t Sink Chinese Stocks as Long as Beijing Gives Booster Shots

“The move to support and facilitate the use of special purpose local government bonds for infrastructure projects is more of an enhancement of an existing fiscal stimulus rather than a new measure,” Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard, tells Barron’s via email. “However it is important as it will speed up transmission of fiscal policy to the real economy and will have a clear impact on investment. We should see a further pick up in the continuing strong recovery in fixed asset investment, which is being led by infrastructure and state firms.” Green notes that the projects favored for these investments are those related to China’s national strategy, such as the Belt Road Initiative, developments along the Yangtze River to combat pollution, railways, roads, energy, and health care.

11 Jun 2019 - CNBC

China consumer inflation in May rises to 15-month high; food prices spike 7.7% as cost of pork rose

While Chinese diners — who account for half of the world’s pork consumption — may get upset about higher prices, the development is not an something that would cause wider market panic, said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard. “Chinese pork prices have been on a roller-coaster for the last decade,” Zhuang told CNBC.

10 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

Risk of a U.K. General Election Is Growing

Jonathan Fenby, chairman of the China team and managing director of European political research at TS Lombard, discusses Boris Johnson's chances of winning the race to replace Theresa May as Prime Minister and the possible consequences for Brexit.Speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

10 Jun 2019 - Bloomberg

Jonathan Fenby: Hong Kong's Independence Is `Being Eroded Quite Fast'

Jonathan Fenby, chairman of the China team and managing director of European political research at TS Lombard, discusses the backdrop to the mass protests in Hong Kong as its leader Carrie Lam pledged to press ahead with Beijing-backed legislation easing extraditions to China. Fenby speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

10 Jun 2019 - Reuters

Nazarbayev's handpicked successor Tokayev elected Kazakh president

“We’re in an interim holding pattern that has the potential to go on for some time with Nazarbayev in his old age holding the reins in the background and Tokayev minding the shopfront,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at consultancy TS Lombard. “There’s no evidence of deeper fissures within Kazakhstan society but there’s a desire for change and renewal, which the current holding operation does not really deliver on.”

10 Jun 2019 - CNBC

US trade strategy is 'deeply disturbing,' strategist says

Jon Harrison, macro strategist for emerging markets at TS Lombard, says the U.S. sees tariffs as a "weapon" for issues unrelated to trade.

10 Jun 2019 - Barrons

There’s Risk for Emerging Markets as China Spars With U.S. and Hong Kong

Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard, tells Barron’s that legislation “is seen as a step too far” for the business community in Hong Kong “that has historically been reticent to get on board with political protesters.” She said that “it will have an impact on business confidence.”

Though Hong Kong is still an attractive destination for international trade, Olcott says the latest developments are symptomatic of things that could shift and add to the uncertainty created by the trade war. The concern is whether Beijing’s moves will push global businesses to reassess their operations or investments in Hong Kong.

10 Jun 2019 - OilPrice.com

Can Trump Rely On The Saudis As Oil Prices Crash?

Separately, Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research for TS Lombard, in London, told OilPrice.com, Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, reminded his audience at a Moscow investment conference that Russia’s fiscal policy is framed around a US$40 per barrel price, based on the estimated US$35-45 per barrel marginal cost of producing shale oil in the U.S.

08 Jun 2019 - Financial Times

Fears mount over eurozone spillover from trade war

Shweta Singh, economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said that market pricing reflected a perception “that the ECB does not have enough instruments to fight low inflation or that the central bank is willing to tolerate low inflation for longer”.

07 Jun 2019 - The Irish Independent

ECB stuck on zero as rate move delayed again

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, warns that Mr Powell will have to move quickly to cut rates. "The tariff clash obviously complicates their thinking about what to do next, given that a monetary response alone is ill-suited to fight a trade war. Nevertheless, an insurance cut was promised, and September increasingly looks like it will be a cut too late if the trade war rolls on, as it now looks set to do," Mr Blitz said.

07 Jun 2019 - elEconomista.es

Draghi no convence a la banca: unas TLTRO generosas no compensan los palos del BCE al sector

Los economistas de TS Lombard explican en una nota que "a la cantidad que pueden pedir los bancos se le debe restar la que tomaron prestada en las TLTRO-II. Esto implica que la capacidad de las entidades italianas y españolas para beneficiarse de estas subastas es muy limitada al principio".

05 Jun 2019 - The Market NZZ

Die Gefahrensignale an den Märkten verdichten sich

Konstantinos Venetis, Ökonom beim unabhängigen Researchanbieter TS Lombard, schreibt: «Dabei handelt es sich nicht bloss um Gegenwind eines sich in die länge ziehenden Handelsdisputs mit China. Der US-Abschwung ist in vollem Gang und wird längere Zeit andauern. Das ist konsistent mit der Verschlechterung unserer Frühindikatoren und der inversen Zinskurve.»

05 Jun 2019 - Reuters

Les marchés s'emballent sur les baisses de taux de la Fed

Konstantinos Venetis et Davide Oneglia, économistes de TS Lombard, soulignent ainsi la divergence entre le consensus des prévisions de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) des Etats-Unis et les anticipations de marché sur le nombre de baisse de taux par la Réserve fédérale aux Etats-Unis.

31 May 2019 - Bloomberg

Italy Is Candidate for Debt Crisis in Next Downturn

Kallum Pickering, economist at Berenberg, and Shweta Singh, managing director for global macro at research firm TS Lombard, talk about the standoff between Italy and the European Commission. The European Commission confirmed it will take the first step in a disciplinary process that would put Italy at risk of financial penalties. Pickering and Singh speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 May 2019 - Bloomberg

TS Lombard's Singh Discuss U.S. Tariffs on Mexico, China

Kallum Pickering, economist at Berenberg, and Shweta Singh, managing director of global macro at research firm TS Lombard, talk about President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 5% tariff on Mexican goods until that country stops immigrants from entering the U.S. illegally, and the implications for the global economy and markets. They also discuss the trade disputes between the U.S. and China on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 May 2019 - Reuters

Trump tariff threat pushes peso to five-month low, Mexican CDS to two-month high

“It’s clearly negative for Mexico, but with this being escalated at a time when the China situation is still not resolved it shows that Trump views tariffs as a weapon he can use without damage to the U.S. economy,” said Jon Harrison, managing director, emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard. “That’s worrying and sends a bad signal for the outlook for global trade overall.”

31 May 2019 - Reuters

Trump's Mexican tariffs threaten to disrupt auto sector

“This being escalated at a time when the China situation is not still resolved shows that Trump views tariffs as a weapon he can use without damage to the U.S. economy. That’s worrying and sends a bad signal for the outlook for global trade overall,” said Jon Harrison, a senior macro strategist at TS Lombard.

30 May 2019 - Financial Times

‘Grim’ eastern European demographics tipped to sap growth

“The demographic story is particularly grim in eastern Europe. Emigration has been enormous,” said Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at TS Lombard.

30 May 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Fed’s Patience Faces Test if Trade Disputes Chill Growth Outlook

If the China trade conflict isn't resolved soon, "the patience needed to keep from easing will be severely tested sometime in the months ahead," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

29 May 2019 - Financial Times

Yield curve inversion cracks the whip

TS Lombard believe the uncertainty triggered by the trade impasse between the US and China will extend the global economic slowdown into the second half of the year. One danger is that US capital expenditures slow materially and weigh on the economy from here. They also highlight how the pain spreads globally:

29 May 2019 - Nikkei Asian Review

The dark side of Modi's election victory

At that time, "charges of being soft on national security had no discernible impact on the election," Amitabh Dubey, an analyst with research boutique TS Lombard, noted in a recent piece.

26 May 2019 - The Telegraph

Rare earths are Xi’s ace card in ‘Long March’ of trade war

“It would cause a lot of short-term pain for US companies. In the longer term it would accelerate the decoupling of the US and China,” says Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard.

26 May 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Verkäufe von US-Staatsanleihen, Abschwächung des Yuan – China hat im Handelskrieg mit den USA wenig gute Optionen

In der Auseinandersetzung gehe es primär um technologische Vorherrschaft, betont Eleanor Olcott, China-Spezialistin von TS Lombard.

24 May 2019 - Barrons

The Trade War Takes an Ominous New Turn

Trump dealt a double blow to Huawei, writes Eleanor Olcott of London-based TS Lombard, by denying the Chinese company access to the rollout of U.S. 5G data networks, but more importantly, also blocking all exports to Huawei.

23 May 2019 - Reuters

Trawling the toolkit - How can the ECB combat economic downturn?

Buying bank bonds would be a game changer, said TS Lombard senior economist Shweta Singh. “This would release a lot of assets for the ECB to buy but it is next to impossible, as it would complicate the ECB’s role as bank supervisor,” she said.

23 May 2019 - Channel News Asia

Indian markets trade at historic highs as PM Modi heads for landslide election win

Indian stocks bucked the regional trend to trade at historic highs on May 23 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP party looked set for a landslide win in the country's general election. Shumita Deveshwar, Director of India Research at TS Lombard, spoke on the latest development.

22 May 2019 - CNBC

Nationalist politics bubbling up across Europe, TS Lombard...

Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the upcoming EU elections.

21 May 2019 - Citywire

Renminbi internationalisation will slow down, say experts

Rory Green, economist at research firm TS Lombard, noted that there has been little material progress in the yuan's use as a global currency for trade recently. ‘We do not expect to see an improvement in trade-based measures of renminbi internationalisation in 2019. The trade war, and weaker global demand will limit renminbi usage for transactions,’ he said.

21 May 2019 - Bloomberg

Dumas: Trade War Threat Hurts Everyone, Not Just U.S. and China

The global economic slowdown is caused by the foreign exchange effects of trade war fears, says Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. Speaking to Daybreak Europe’s Caroline Hepker and Yousef Gamal El-Din, Dumas also says the Federal Reserve will need to cut rates mid-year because the global slowdown is spilling into the U.S.

21 May 2019 - Channel News Asia

Huawei's CEO plays down significance of US restrictions

Huawei's CEO has played down the significance of US restrictions. Ren Zhengfei said he and Google are discussing emergency measures to find a solution after Google announced it would comply with a US order to stop supplying Huawei. Eleanor Olcottt, China Policy Analyst at TS Lombard, told CNA how Huawei's lack of access to Android updates would affect consumers.

20 May 2019 - Barrons

The Trade War Will Make Stocks Scary. 5 Reasons Not to Panic.

China is in a stronger position now, following a wave of stimulus measures such as tax cuts, infrastructure investments and more flexible loan standards, says TS Lombard economist Rory Green. And more stimulus is expected to cushion the latest rates, including possible subsidies for cars and appliances, and cuts in banks' reserve ratio requirements to stimulate more credit.

19 May 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Der deutsche Teil des Euro ist unterbewertet

Sie habe zudem innerhalb der Euro-Zone zu anhaltenden Verzerrungen geführt, argumentiert Charles Dumas, Chefökonom des Londoner Analysehauses TS Lombard, in einer Studie.

16 May 2019 - CNBC

Selling because of the trade war turbulence could cost you a lot of money over the long term

But while tensions have flared up, strategists still expect the two sides to strike a trade deal eventually. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the G-20 summit next month. Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, noted “the fundamentals call for [a] deal.”

16 May 2019 - MoneyWeek

Trump’s tweet triggers trade tariff tit-for-tat

In 2018 tariffs had an “economy-wide” net cost to the US of just 0.04% of GDP, says The Economist. The immediate effects on China will be similarly minor, Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says in the Financial Times. As the Middle Kingdom has developed its domestic economy, the relative importance of exports to the US has fallen sharply in recent years to just 4% of GDP.

16 May 2019 - Bloomberg

These Are the Worst-Case Scenarios for China in the Trade War

Restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S., especially in technology-related areas, risk stalling the transfer of technologies and foreign know-how, slowing China’s move up the value chain, said Zhuang Bo, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard.

15 May 2019 - The Straits Times

Tariffs imperil China's key position in global supply chain

But companies will still have to adapt. "Trade frictions would deter business investment in China or incentivise companies to reallocate capacity to other regional economies or back to the US," said Mr Zhuang Bo, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard.

14 May 2019 - Bloomberg

ECB High-Flier Coeure Risks Third Time Unlucky in Presidency Bid

“Coeure is very much an economist that markets favor, but it’s often overlooked to what degree the role of the president is a political one,” said Constantine Fraser, European political research analyst at TS Lombard in London.

13 May 2019 - MarketWatch

The monster clash between U.S., China over trade dwarfs all other issues about the economy

“This is Trump’s world now,” said Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. “You want to know what is going to happen to markets, look to the White House.”

13 May 2019 - CNBC

The Chinese yuan could break 7 in the next few months: Economist

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says China's central bank may be sending a "strong signal" that it could allow the currency to go, and it would be better for the U.S. to come back to the negotiation table.

13 May 2019 - Financial Times

Beijing vows not to flinch, but tariffs likely to bite hard

“I was just playing with my old model of trade war impacts,” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard. According to Mr Zhuang’s estimates, the latest tariffs, if implemented for a full year, would reduce China’s exports to the US by $75bn — and by $170bn if Mr Trump follows through on his threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Chinese imports.

13 May 2019 - Bloomberg

China Exporters Reel as U.S. Tariffs Imperil World’s Supply Hub

“Global supply chains will be reshaped, with the likely relocation of clusters and producers to avoid tariffs,” said Zhuang Bo, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard. “Trade frictions would deter business investment in China or incentivize companies to reallocate capacity to other regional economies or back to the U.S.”

12 May 2019 - CNBC

Here’s how China may retaliate to Trump’s tariff hike

“We think the currency is one area in which Beijing has a clear advantage over Washington,” Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard, said in a note on Friday.

11 May 2019 - Wall Street Journal

China Holds Fire in Latest Trade Skirmish With U.S.

"The moment Trump announces a date for tariffs on all Chinese goods, that's the moment the yuan will drop," says Bo Zhuang, an economist at research firm TS Lombard. He estimates authorities would allow the currency to swing to as weak as 7.6 yuan to the U.S. dollar, a level that would roughly offset the impact of 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

11 May 2019 - The Guardian

Even Trump may ultimately retreat from the cost of the China trade war

Bo Zhuang and Eleanor Olcott, economists at the consultancy TS Lombard, say the costly implications for both sides of a prolonged fight means a deal is still likely.

“Even if the tariffs remain in place, the fundamentals call for a deal. Trump will maintain talks with China, just as he has done with North Korea following the fallout from the Hanoi summit. The rising bankruptcy rate of US farmers and greater volatility in the markets will sharpen his resolve for a deal,” they say.

“Some commentators have said Beijing will now call for boycotts of US goods and place non-tariff barriers on US goods. At this stage, we believe that such harsh retaliatory measures are unlikely. This week’s events have pushed back our timeline for a deal but the conciliatory language and the measured response from Beijing is reassuring,” they add.

11 May 2019 - il Sole 24

Tre modi diversi di sbagliare una patrimoniale

In qualunque caso la patrimoniale sarebbe una mera redistribuzione del reddito, per lo più inefficiente, e in quanto tale non servirebbe per la crescita e l’occupazione perché non farebbe aumentare la produttività del lavoro - vero problema del Paese - che, secondo le elaborazioni di Ts Lombard su dati Ocse, è diminuita del 3,5% negli ultimi 20 anni, a fronte di un aumento medio del 15% negli altri Paesi europei.

10 May 2019 - CNBC

China sees US trade pressure as holding a gun to its head, expert says

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, discusses escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

09 May 2019 - Bloomberg

Chinese Credit Growth Slows More Than Expected in April

“Beijing’s policy focus is sticking to stabilization, rather than chasing a rebound,” said Zhuang Bo, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard. “Some parts of the economy are recovering and there is evidence of green shoots. Obviously, if the trade negotiation goes south with tariff hikes this week, China’s economic policy priority will shift back to easing and stimulus.”

09 May 2019 - Financial Times

US-China trade war leaves global economy counting the cost

That trend is likely to continue. “There is a very strong incentive [for China] to decouple [its trade] from the US,” said Larry Brainard, economist at TS Lombard. “What we have seen so far is the tip of the iceberg.”

09 May 2019 - The Telegraph

Chinese investment into US plunges as trade war bites

“Following Trump’s weekend intervention, we expect the US-China trade deal will be delayed. However, the Friday deadline for a hike in existing tariffs will likely be extended as the two sides try out various end-game negotiating tactics,” said Jon Harrison at TS Lombard.

09 May 2019 - Bloomberg

China Has More Reasons to Stimulate Economy Beyond Trade Tension

“Beijing’s policy focus is sticking to stabilization, rather than chasing a rebound,” said Zhuang Bo, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard. “Some parts of the economy are recovering and there is evidence of green shoots. Obviously, if the trade negotiation goes south with tariff hikes this week, China’s economic policy priority will shift back to easing and stimulus.”

08 May 2019 - Bloomberg

The Mighty U.S. Consumer Is Struggling

Looking forward, TS Lombard Chief Economist Steven Blitz notes that two-thirds of April’s new jobs were generated in lower-wage services industries such as administration and support services, health and social services, leisure and hospitality, among others. The flip-side of this dynamic is that high-paying job growth has been nearly halved to 1.6 percent since peaking in 2015.

06 May 2019 - Barrons

Trump’s Tariff Tweets Rattle the Stock Market. Here’s What You Need to Know.

“This looks like Trump exercising ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics and threatening escalation to get more out of China,” says Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard in London. “It is also a response to the negative press that has painted him as desperate for a deal leading him to drop key demands. He wants to appear tough both to the Chinese negotiators and the U.S. domestic audience,” Olcott continued in an email to Barron’s. “But this round of threats, the kind of which we haven’t seen for six months, will surely make any deal that is eventually signed appear even more uncertain and fragile. It also makes any signing of the deal between [President] Xi and Trump even more unlikely.”
But Olcott says a sea of red in markets Monday morning could lead to a change of tune since Trump wants a buoyant stock market and economy before the electoral cycle starts. Olcott still expects a deal though perhaps later than most expected. What to watch now: “The key signal now as to whether the tariffs will actually go up from 10-25% on Friday is if [Vice Premier and China’s lead trade negotiator] Liu He comes to Washington this week. If he is in town there is still time to avoid escalation.

06 May 2019 - MarketWatch

Investors are pushing the panic button on U.S.-China trade talks, analyst suggests

It looks like skittish investors are approaching his tweet like the latter rather than, as TS Lombard’s Eleanor Olcott described it to Barron’s, Trump merely exercising his “Art of the Deal” tactics to deliver some surprise to the upside.

06 May 2019 - Quartz

Are the UK’s two leading political parties on the edge of collapse?

The Brexit Party’s likely success in these elections won’t change EU policy. But it might “take some of the wind out of the sails of the campaign for a second referendum, and perhaps make a still-more-Brexity turn more enticing for the Conservatives,” European political research analyst Constantine Fraser, from TS Lombard, says. This could mean the party electing a leader like Boris Johnson, who would push back on demands from Brussels. “At the same time, the more moderate voices in the Conservative party will see this as a reason to get Brexit out of the way as soon as possible—even if that means compromising with Labour. In a sense, the Brexit Party tugs the different wings of the Conservatives in different directions.”

04 May 2019 - The Independent

Easter inflation bounce won't end slowdown fears

That policy torpor may turn out to be a big misreading of the economy, according to Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. "Our reading of recent economic data suggests that the time to be pre-emptive should be now. A slowdown strong enough to pull inflation lower is in the making," he said.

03 May 2019 - The Street

Trump Economy Keeps Creating Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Along With Debt, Debt, Debt

TS Lombard, a forecasting firm, has described Trump's tax cuts as a "full-on fiscal stimulus at a thoroughly unorthodox late stage of the economic cycle." 

02 May 2019 - CNBC

Fed is ceding the spotlight of policy drivers to Trump, economist says

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision.

01 May 2019 - South China Morning Post

US-China trade deal may be close, but global trade recovery likely to lag behind, TS Lombard says

Global trade could remain subdued even if the US and China reach a deal to end their trade war later this month, according to the research firm TS Lombard. In its latest report on emerging markets, the firm said it expects a decline in emerging markets export growth to get even steeper in April despite a strong recovery in Chinese exports in March. “The model suggests that there will be a sharp downturn in China’s export growth in April followed by a smaller decline in May, while exports may contract at a slower pace in June,” Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard, said in the report. “A US-China trade deal appears likely in the coming month, but there will continue to be a lagged impact on world trade.”

01 May 2019 - CNBC

Could Russia and the US come to a deal over Venezuela’s Maduro?

“Russia’s bottom line is to stop regime change by external intervention, but if it falls from within they’ll go with the flow,” Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and Global Political Research at TS Lombard, told CNBC Wednesday. “If the political situation evolves internally and a new regime emerges that is strong and stable I’m sure they would pragmatically support it,” he noted. “But a driving force for Russia is to stop a process of regime change by outside forces ... and the U.S. using its power to overthrow governments it doesn’t like.”

01 May 2019 - Financial Times

Patience binds the Fed and bullish bond traders

Steve Blitz at TS Lombard has an interesting chart that helps explain the lack of inflationary pressure, in this case showing how “consumer demand for credit in this cycle pales relative to disposable income, in marked contrast to the prior cycle”.

29 Apr 2019 - Forbes

Don't Believe The Hype Surrounding Saudi Arabia's Aramco Bond Deal

"The purpose of the imminent Aramco bond issues is to facilitate extraction of cash from the company and into MBS’s [ruling Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] pet projects," states a recent report from London-based financial firm TS Lombard.

28 Apr 2019 - The Telegraph

China's stimulus: can it save the world economy (again)?

“This stimulus will be of a far lesser magnitude than previously. It will be about half the size,” says Rory Green of TS Lombard. The regime’s leadership, the politburo, has signalled that enough firepower may already have been spent on boosting the economy. Green places great weight on the Chinese leaders’ use of the term “structural”. This suggests they believe they have done enough to stabilise the slowdown in growth and that preventing more leveraging – the build-up of debt – is now more important than higher rates of expansion.

28 Apr 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Trotz hohem Wirtschaftswachstum sorgen sich viele Spanier – nicht ganz zu Unrecht: Die Arbeitslosenquote ist hoch, und nach der Wahl am Sonntag werden sich die Aussichten weiter eintrüben

Other analysts, however, believe that the fragmentation of the Spanish party landscape will lead to lengthy coalition negotiations. Whether this is a pity for the economy, however, may be an open question, according to the British analyst TS Lombard. Once before, in 2015 and 2016, Spain was without a government for nearly ten months, and there were two elections without any negative impact on the economy.

26 Apr 2019 - Nikkei Asian Review

China's decline into deficit threatens to upend global markets

Once the source of global liquidity, China will in the future likely try to attract more of those capital flows itself. "China is moving toward becoming a net capital importer from being one of the largest exporters of capital globally," notes Shweta Singh of TS Lombard in a recent report.

26 Apr 2019 - The Street

U.S. Economy Grows Faster Than Expected at 3.2%, Erasing Recession Fears

Businesses are expected to work down elevated inventories in future periods, while the U.S. trade balance probably will return to a deficit, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard. "Beyond the headline number, when I look at this report, I see nothing that tells me that growth momentum is going up," Blitz said. "It sets us up for a weak second quarter."

24 Apr 2019 - Financial Times

To hedge or not to hedge?

That is a potentially risky move, warns Shweta Singh of TS Lombard. She pointed out to Lomb Alphaville: If you are investing in dollar-denominated assets unhedged, there is a pressure point when the dollar depreciates, because your asset value decreases.

24 Apr 2019 - Financial Times

Japan’s giant life insurers part ways on US dollar strategy

Until the dollar shows signs of weakening and US hedging costs come down, Shweta Singh, a Managing Director Glbal Macro at TS Lombard, expects the diversification trend to continue.

23 Apr 2019 - Reuters

En Chine, plus de croissance, moins de soutien ?

Fiscal stimulus margins are also reduced with a consolidated budget deficit that Bo Zhuang, the Chinese economist at TS Lombard, estimates will exceed 5% of gross domestic product this year and even exceed 9% by taking into account quasi-fiscal levers, such as local government financing vehicles or private placements.

22 Apr 2019 - Reuters

Brazil growth forecasts tumble as key pension reform vote looms

Economists at research consultancy TS Lombard on Monday said sub-par indicators released so far this year suggest the economy may even have contracted in the first quarter, with uncertainty over reforms putting company investment plans on hold.

“In recent months, the lack of progress on structural reforms has eroded confidence for consumers, industry, retail and services,” Wilson Ferrarezi, the firm’s Brazil economist, wrote a note to clients.

22 Apr 2019 - CNBC

China’s Belt and Road is partially a geopolitical tool: TS Lombard

Large projects under China’s Belt and Road initiative have slowed, but smaller, private projects have picked up the pace, says Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard.

18 Apr 2019 - The Independent

Germany sparks eurozone gloom with downgrade

Economic consultancy TS Lombard notes that surveys also show German companies are holding inventory levels that are higher than at any time since the eurozone sovereign debt crisis hit, a measure that implies it will take a long time for growth to return.

18 Apr 2019 - CNBC

A viral outbreak in China might make dinner more expensive for everybody

The problem has been exacerbated by the trade war with U.S., with tariffs driving up prices of soybeans — used for animal feed — and leading Chinese farmers to slaughter costly breeding swine rather than risk forced culling, said research firm TS Lombard.

18 Apr 2019 - Bloomberg

‘Melt-Up Bets’ Entice Wall Street as Hedge Funds Chase Gains

Economist Dario Perkins is reminded of 1998, when central banks stepped in to shore up economic growth, only to help add fuel to the final stages of a stock-market boom that came to an abrupt end. “Central bank stimulus helped prevent recession in 1998, triggering a two year ‘melt-up’ in risk assets,” said Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard in London. “But disappointing earnings meant the resulting stock-market bubble was unsustainable. Corporate profits could again play a decisive role in determining how long the current cycle lasts.”

18 Apr 2019 - Asia Times

China’s hog hell in Year of the Pig

“The key question … is what is the true severity of China’s African Swine Fever outbreak? And, actually, no one, not even Beijing, knows the answer,” Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard said.  “Chinese authorities have actively downplayed the severity of the disease. Meanwhile small and medium-sized farmers are incentivized to hide [African swine fever] outbreaks for fear of massive livestock and commercial losses. The result is at best [a] murky picture of the domestic pork market.”

17 Apr 2019 - Reuters

Analyst View: Widodo has substantial lead in Indonesian election - pollsters

“This is clearly positive. Investors have been nervous about the risk of a change of government and policy. Investments that people have been putting off will now be prepared to go ahead, says Jon Harrison, Managing Director, EM Macro Strategy. “Particularly if (Widodo’s share of the vote) is 55 percent, that is a decisive mandate. A narrower margin could give rise to accusation of (election) fraud and so on. This is a good outcome for the market.” “The (Indonesian) central bank is going to be very cautious about letting the rupiah rally too much, and the bond market as well. But foreign investors should be relieved about this. It is in line with opinion polls and expectations.”

17 Apr 2019 - CNBC

Turkey’s economy is spiraling — and a new election will make things worse

“The government is still lacking a viable strategy to promote financial stabilization,” Larry Brainard, chief emerging markets economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a note this week. ”(Its) new plan ... is unlikely to make progress in cleaning up banks’ balance sheets. This suggests a prolonged financial and economic squeeze lies ahead,” he added.

16 Apr 2019 - The Street

Why Mining Stocks Are Likely to Continue Surging

"Infrastructure will likely see a large rebound this year," says Rory Green, an economist for China and North Asia at financial firm TS Lombard in London. He notes that already local governments have made their largest first-quarter bond issuance on record. 

16 Apr 2019 - Barrons

A Deal to End the U.S.-China Trade War Could Be Coming. But It Won’t Fix Everything.

A Chinese commitment to import more from the U.S. could hurt companies including Brazilian soy exporters Terra Santa Agro (TESA3. Brazil) and SLC Agricola (SLCE3. Brazil), Rory Green, an economist at TS Lombard, tells Barron’s.

16 Apr 2019 - Business Insider

La frenata della Germania è legata alla crisi turca. E si ripercuoterà su tutta l’Europa

Based on TS Lombard elaboration, the recent rebound in the data on German industrial production could be short-lived and not structural at all, given that not only foreign orders are at the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis- 2009 but inventories have experienced an increase that has brought the figure to a maximum since 2012 . A warning also for certain triumphalisms at home compared to the latest industry data. For this reason, the word recession itself is no longer a taboo .

16 Apr 2019 - MarketWatch

Here’s where the market is, and isn’t, pricing in a loss of Fed independence

“Admittedly, President Trump is much more public and obvious about seeking to bend the Fed to the White House’s will, but he is far from the first to do so and unlikely to be last,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “Noises aside, this Fed will do what it believes is right, regardless of the praise, brickbats, or nominees that may come its way.”

15 Apr 2019 - Bloomberg

Constantine Fraser on the possible Brexit scenarios

Constantine Fraser, European Policy Analyst at TS Lombard comments on Brexit.

15 Apr 2019 - CNBC

How India And China Broke Out From The BRICs

Brazil, Russia, India and China were coined the BRICs in 2001 by Jim O'Neill, then chief economist at Goldman Sachs. For a while, everybody wanted a piece of the fast-growing emerging markets. But a few years after the financial crisis, the economies started diverging.

12 Apr 2019 - Bloomberg

The Economy Is Unprepared for a Drop in Tax Refunds

Some of the impetus to raise funds comes down amid a slowdown in wage growth. As noted by TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz, average hourly earnings for all workers slid to 3 percent in March on a three-month annualized basis from 3.6 percent in October.

11 Apr 2019 - BBC

Why India is one of world's most protectionist countries

Trade is unlikely to play a major role in this year's election. Voters are more likely to be concerned about jobs and growth, says Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at TS Lombard.

10 Apr 2019 - Financial Times

ECB’s lending operations fail to ignite bank lending

Shweta Singh, economist at TS Lombard, an independent research provider, says that operations such as TLTROs are “helpful when banks are constrained in their ability to meet demand for credit. But it is mainly weak demand, especially in Italy, that has held back bank lending in this cycle. So the boost from TLTROs is limited”.

09 Apr 2019 - CNBC

Europe’s economy is experiencing a crisis of confidence

“In stark contrast with the bleak manufacturing outlook, the EA (euro area) service sector keeps on holding up relatively well,” Davide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard, said in a note Monday.

09 Apr 2019 - Barrons

The Stock Market Is Partying Like It’s 1999. Watch Out.

The back story. One of the first market watchers to make the comparison was Dario Perkins, global macro strategist with TS Lombard. He published a piece about it in August, when tightening Fed policy and a strengthening dollar were raising financial pressure on emerging markets (Argentina and Turkey in particular).

09 Apr 2019 - Reuters

Aramco gets whopping $100 billion demand for landmark bond

“This bond is being issued for two reasons: to establish Aramco’s status as an independent corporate identity and to enable the transfer of wealth out of the company,” said Marcus Chenevix, analyst, MENA and global political research at TS Lombard.

09 Apr 2019 - The Telegraph

Further fears over eurozone slowdown as German exports suffer biggest drop in a year

Investors hoping for the German "economic locomotive" to bounce back quickly from its factory woes "will have to wait a bit longer", according to TS Lombard managing director Shweta Singh. She pointed out that forward-looking indicators for German manufacturers "point to continued weakness in the coming months". Ms Singh also argued that an overhang of stock built up in its factories will weigh on production. Business survey data has indicated that companies are holding the most stock since the eurozone debt crisis.

05 Apr 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Strong March Job Numbers (Podcast)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, break down better-than-expected hiring in March and unemployment hovering near a five-decade low, and what all that means for the economy

05 Apr 2019 - MarketWatch

Cresting wage gains ebb in March, but the tide isn’t turning against American workers

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, noted that hiring has been especially strong in health care, leisure and hospitality, areas of the economy that tend to employ more low-wage workers. Hiring has tapered off, he said, in most industries that offer higher pay.

05 Apr 2019 - Barrons

The Stock Market Shrugs After the Jobs Report Shows There’s Little to Worry About

The sluggishness in pay gains appears to stem from job growth being concentrated last month in low-paying sectors, writes Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, in a client note. 

02 Apr 2019 - Financial Times

Erdogan scrambles to reassure investors after shock poll defeat

Larry Brainard, emerging markets economist at consultancy TS Lombard, drew a comparison with Argentina, which last year ran into similar financing difficulties, but has since managed to stabilise the peso after calling in the IMF. “It was horrendous in Argentina, too, but they made all the numbers public. The IMF brings transparency,” he said. By contrast, Mr Brainard added, Turkey was currently “uninvestable”.

29 Mar 2019 - CNBC

If a recession really is coming, here’s what Powell and Trump can do to stop it

“Why would you wait for a definitive sign that the economy is falling down before actually cutting rates?” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in an interview. “There’s no inflation to worry about. If there is an inflation problem next year, so what?”

28 Mar 2019 - MoneyWeek

Italy joins China’s Belt and Road project

Italy’s anti-establishment coalition has already clashed with Brussels over immigration and its spending plans. Its deal with China is likely to be another source of conflict. But for China’s president, Xi Jinping, the deal is “fantastic”, says Rory Green of TS Lombard. “It’s a really big coup for Xi and it will give him a foothold in the heart of Europe.”

27 Mar 2019 - Expansion

Las siete opciones del Brexit que votará el Parlamento británico

Analysts believe that the victory will be for a Brexit softer than the one proposed by May. "According to the voting record so far, the most likely option to win is a permanent customs union with the EU," says Christopher Granville of TS Lombard.

27 Mar 2019 - CNBC

Is Italy playing with fire when it comes to China?

Rory Green, a China and North Asia economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC Wednesday that the deal with Italy was “fantastic” for President Xi Jinping. “It’s a really big coup for Xi Jinping and it will give him a foothold in the heart of Europe.”

26 Mar 2019 - CNBC

TS Lombard: China wants to reduce its dependence on the US

Even with a trade deal, China would still like to reduce its dependence on the U.S. and could diversify its sources of supply, says Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard. Weighing in on China-Europe relations, he also says Beijing wants to ensure that a global alliance isn’t formed against China.

26 Mar 2019 - Reuters

La Fed joue-t-elle à se faire peur et l'obligataire avec elle ?

For Steven Blitz, economist at TS Lombard, the question remains whether the pause in the normalization of the Fed's monetary policy and the stimulus measures announced by China in the face of the slowdown in its economy will be sufficient to revive growth or if its weakening will continue. "We believe that the series of bad indicators is not over yet and therefore the next Fed initiative will be a rate cut in the second or third quarter," he warns.

25 Mar 2019 - CNBC

With rumors of a Brexit coup, Theresa May’s leadership looks ‘extremely fragile’

Several senior ministers said Monday they do not want May to resign, casting doubts over the rumored coup. Nonetheless, her position remains “fragile,” according to Constantine Fraser, a European political research analyst at TS Lombard. “Despite her Cabinet seemingly abandoning an attempt at a coup over the weekend, May’s position is still extremely fragile,” he said in comments emailed to CNBC.

23 Mar 2019 - The Independent

David Chance: 'Bond market inversion is early red flag for recession'

"Not only will they have less policy space compared to previous economic downturns, but they face all sorts of political pressures which - in the extreme - could seriously dilute their independence," said Dario Perkins, Managing Director of Global Macroeconomics at leading London-based economic consultancy TS Lombard. "Officials know the next recession will require a large fiscal response and the only question is how subservient central banks become as part of this transition."

23 Mar 2019 - The Telegraph

The radical ways central banks could revive the economy in the next recession

Dario Perkins, at TS Lombard, argues the rapid response from central banks to December’s market bloodbath shows they are “seriously afraid of the next recession” amid signs that new, radical ideas are coming to the fore.

22 Mar 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Analysis: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Shows His Flexible Side

The twin pivots were "quick by Fed standards," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

22 Mar 2019 - Reuters

GRAPHES-Après le krach boursier du T4 2018, un "remake" au T2 2019 ?

For Dario Perkins, economist at TS Lombard, the much faster and sudden reaction of the central bankers to what he calls a stock market crash at the end of 2018 can be explained by their lack of room for maneuver and their fear of losing their independence. 

22 Mar 2019 - Bloomberg

TS Lombard's Zhuang on U.S.-China Trade, Xi's Trip to Italy

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, discusses a potential U.S.-China trade deal, and Chinese investment in Italy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)

22 Mar 2019 - Barrons

The Trouble With the New IPOs

The spread between three-month bills and 10-year notes last turned negative in August 2007, just as the financial crisis was deepening, so the precedent is obviously worrying. The spread also turned negative in September 1998, Dario Perkins, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard, says in a research note. But thereafter, the stock market went on to party like it was 1999 until the 2000 peak.

21 Mar 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

TS Lombard’s Blitz: Fed Cannot Afford Another Recession (Radio)

Steve Blitz, Chief Economist for TS Lombard, on the economy and key takeaways from Jay Powell’s press conference. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

20 Mar 2019 - Bloomberg

Economist Dumas Sees Every Reason to Expect a Fed Rate Cut This Year

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Federal Reserve's rate path as he expects an interest rate cut later this year. He speaks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller on "Bloomberg Markets: European Open." (Source: Bloomberg)

20 Mar 2019 - Financial Times

We ignore the index providers’ power at our peril

TS Lombard points out that Chinese Treasury and state-controlled bank bond issues will be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index from next month.

20 Mar 2019 - Barrons

Why Emerging Markets Could Soon Face a Correction

Emerging markets have rocketed higher this year, rebounding from a brutal 2018. Strategists at TS Lombard say investors shouldn’t be complacent, and instead brace for a near-term correction.

19 Mar 2019 - South China Morning Post

Why the yuan will rise, even though China faces a ‘tough economic battle’ in 2019

It is also notable that some analysts, such as TS Lombard’s chief China economist Bo Zhuang, have recently tempered their bearishness on the yuan.

19 Mar 2019 - MarketWatch

How bond traders are betting the Fed will declare an early end to balance sheet runoff

“If the Fed does maintain a dovish bent, it will give more of an inflation premium and push long-end yields higher, steepening the curve a bit,” said Shweta Singh, managing director for global macro at T.S. Lombard, in an interview with MarketWatch.

18 Mar 2019 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Chinas nächste sanfte Landung

The government and the central bank are responding with growth-supporting measures. For example, a further reduction in the minimum reserve ratio of commercial banks and tax relief was announced. However, according to Bo Zhuang, China economist of the independent economic research institute TS Lombard, such measures will not be fully effective until the second quarter.

18 Mar 2019 - CNBC

Dow falls to start the week as Boeing shares slide again

“When FOMC members meet this week, they will find that since their last get together at the end of January short-term yield relationships are still forewarning lower growth despite concerted jaw-boning efforts that include the promise of ending balance sheet reduction early,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

17 Mar 2019 - The Guardian

As recession looms, could MMT be the unorthodox solution?

But economics goes in cycles, even if these cycles are sometimes extremely long. Dario Perkins of TS Lombard notes that economists in the 1930s came to the conclusion that central banks had done all they could. Cutting interest rates when they were already low was like “pushing on a piece of string” and, as a result, governments needed to use the power of the state to shorten dole queues.

14 Mar 2019 - elEconomista.es

Las preguntas sin responder del BCE sobre la TLTRO-III pueden cambiarlo todo para España e Italia

Shweta Singh and Oliver Brennan, analysts at TS Lombard, agree on this point: "Only the Italian banks took 33% of the funds offered in the TLTRO-II, followed by the Spanish ones that took 23%. exceeded 80% of everything they can borrow under this program, so their ability to request new funding in the TLTRO-III could be very limited. "

11 Mar 2019 - South China Morning Post

Trade war is killing overseas investment by Chinese, US tech companies, analysts say

“As a result, Chinese [venture capital] firms are adapting their investment strategy and are turning to other markets; we expect investment in Germany, the [United Kingdom], South Korea, Taiwan and Japan to receive a boost,” Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at TS Lombard in London, said in a research report. One area of uncertainty for the technology industry is how the US will implement new export control legislation that targets “emerging and foundational technologies”, Olcott said.

11 Mar 2019 - Reuters

Bad loan build-up clouds emerging share market picture

“The fact we have higher interest rates and a weaker currency means there’s a rising probability of corporate defaults and non-performing loans,” said Jon Harrison, managing director, emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard.

11 Mar 2019 - The Street

As Fed Tries to Reheat Economy, Consumers See Inflation Falling

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard, said in a phone interview that consumers might be more inclined to put off purchases if they don't see imminent signs that prices are going up. "If people think the price is going to be higher a year from now, they'll buy it today," Blitz said. "If people's expectations of inflation start to drop, they can wait till tomorrow."

10 Mar 2019 - Bloomberg

Fed May Cut Rates in Third Quarter, TS Lombard's Blitz Says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, talks about Federal Reserve policy, balance sheet and the economy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: Bloomberg)

09 Mar 2019 - Reuters

U.S. February job growth weakest in nearly one and a half years

“Weakness in capex and exports, much of it tied to knock-on effects from the tariffs and trade-war confusion generally, are likely behind the slowdown in hiring by the manufacturing sector,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

08 Mar 2019 - The Independent

ECB halts rate rise as eurozone stutters

Shweta Singh, managing director of global macro-economic research at consultancy TS Lombard, said the move would give banks time to rebuild their financial buffers. It does not, she said, address the problem of weakening eurozone growth and loan demand.

08 Mar 2019 - Reuters

ECB papers over euro zone cracks with more bank loans

But that fragmentation makes the cheap loans “a symptom of a bigger problem,” said Shweta Singh, an economist TS Lombard.

08 Mar 2019 - Financial Times

Central banks shift stance in face of ‘pervasive uncertainty’

Shweta Singh, economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said the latest round of cheap loans would ease funding pressures on Spanish and Italian banks and help them to continue lending to the real economy. But it would make little difference if Italian businesses did not want to borrow — the main problem in recent months.

08 Mar 2019 - Financial Times

Why the safe exit from this bull market will be narrow

Steve Blitz at TS Lombard argues that central banks’ pumping up of asset prices ‘’never translated into capital spending to anywhere near the extent expected’,’ particularly over the past three years.

08 Mar 2019 - Barrons

Why the Record Trade Gap Is No Big Deal

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at T.S. Lombard, thinks the Fed will probably view the data as a “glass half-full” for now and maintain its patient pause on interest-rate increases and proceed with its adjustment of its pace of balance sheet reduction. “Our probability bias is that the weakness in the economy is evident enough by summer that they cut policy rates by 25 [basis points],” he writes in a research report. A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.

08 Mar 2019 - Barrons

The Latest Payroll Numbers Aren’t as Scary as They Look

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, thinks the Federal Reserve will likely view that data as “glass half-full” for now, and will maintain its patient pause on interest rate increases and proceed with its adjustment of the pace of its balance-sheet reduction. “Our probability bias is that the weakness in the economy is evident enough by summer that they cut policy rates by 25 [basis points],” he writes in a research report. (A basis point is 1/100 of a percentage point.)

07 Mar 2019 - Bloomberg

Deal or No Deal, Trump Trade War With China Scars Global Economy

The dollar has strengthened more than 2 percent since President Donald Trump began slapping tariffs on Chinese goods last July. That raised the cost of imports for products priced in dollars, such as oil, noted Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard in London. Over the same period, the yuan has weakened just about 1 percent, though it was down about 5 percent at the end of October. A weaker Chinese currency made the exports of other countries less attractive, said Dumas. The combined effect of a stronger dollar and softer yuan has contributed to growth slowing outside the U.S. and China, he said.

“The fascinating thing to me is the degree of damage being done outside the two main principals, the U.S. and China,” said Dumas. Other countries “were kind of being squeezed on both ends.”’

07 Mar 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Daybreak: ECB to Cut Forecasts. Huawei Sues U.S. (Podcast)

The ECB will cut forecasts for growth and inflation again today. Huawei sued the U.S. for penalizing it without a fair trial. Blackstone may hit about $20 billion when it completes the first phase of capital raising for its flagship fund. TS Lombard’s Shweta Singh discussed what to expect from the ECB on Bloomberg TV. Erin Roman hosts.

05 Mar 2019 - Reuters

Oil falls as China trims economic growth target, but OPEC-led cuts support

“Near term ... it is hard to get very bullish on oil prices. The market is still working off the surpluses built in H2 2018, keeping OECD commercial inventories stuck above the five-year average,” said energy analysts at economic research firm TS Lombard.

03 Mar 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Commodities Outlook Remains Rocky

“The rebound we saw in January and February was largely the reaction to prior excessive selling,” says Konstantinos Venetis, a senior economist at London-based financial firm TS Lombard. Now, he says, the markets are free to trade based on fundamentals, and it is clear that the world economy isn’t growing as fast in 2019 as it did last year. China, traditionally a major buyer of oil and materials, is stimulating its economy, but “it is more of a defensive move, and any positive economic effects won’t get felt until next year,” Mr. Venetis says

25 Feb 2019 - Bloomberg

Unloved Part of Treasury Curve Keeps Signaling a U.S. Recession

The 1-to-5-year spread is as good an indicator of economic slumps as the more commonly monitored 1-to-10-year gap, according to Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, a London-based research provider. 

21 Feb 2019 - CNBC

What Fed actually wants to do is cut the funds rate

Steven Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses minutes from the latest policy meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

21 Feb 2019 - MarketWatch

Critics are wrong: Stock-buyback kingpins like Apple, Walmart invest more, not less

The 100 companies in the MSCI USA index that have bought back the most stock have also boosted capital investment by 45% in the past year, said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at the global investment advisory firm TS Lombard.

21 Feb 2019 - MarketWatch

Existing-home sales fall for third-straight month, hit a 3-year low

“The change in the tax law reduced the tax-advantage of mortgages, especially in high-tax states, and this has had its negative effect. The latest survey data covering new-home builders has improved some, in line with lower mortgage rates, but the turn in sentiment did nothing to alter the downtrend in builder sentiment that began last March,” noted Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard. “Builders have a good record of forecasting the unemployment rate 18 months out,” Blitz added. “Not wanting to dismiss the prescience of builders now, the relationship implies a 5% or so unemployment rate by the middle of next year.”

19 Feb 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Investors Sound Warning About Markets’ Complacency on Interest Rates

“China is probably going to get worse before it gets better, and the U.S. will feel that slowdown,” said Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, who believes the Fed is likely to lower rates by the end of the year.

19 Feb 2019 - Financial Times

For stocks, it’s corporate buying that really matters

As TS Lombard, a research firm, points out, share prices are not the only determinant of spending but they count more than they used to because equities make up a bigger percentage of household net worth than real estate for only the third time since the end of the second world war. An important difference in the current cycle compared with the previous two occasions is that so much of the increase in ownership reflects net purchases as opposed to simply being the passive result of a valuation uplift in a strong bull market.

19 Feb 2019 - The Street

As Fed Pauses on Interest Rates, Some Economists Now Project Cuts

With inflation subdued at around 2%, there's no incentive for the Fed to raise rates this year, especially since doing so would likely cause the economy to slow further, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecasting firm TS Lombard. 

19 Feb 2019 - CNBC

Stocks rise after Trump signals flexibility on March trade deadline, Walmart leads

"While it seems probable that Trump will extend that deadline to avoid derailing the substantive negotiations now in progress, this cannot be taken for granted," said Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard. "The second round of talks in Beijing at the end of last week produced no breakthrough, but equally — and perhaps more important — no breakdown either." "On balance, then, trade war risks remain skewed to the upside," Granville added.

19 Feb 2019 - CNBC

Why The Pain Isn't Over Yet for Emerging Markets

"China is also in the driving seat; when China coughs everyone catches a cold and that's particularly true for emerging markets," says Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging market macro strategy at London-based financial firm TS Lombard. China's softening economy is being made worse by the still unresolved trade war with the U.S. and that is having a knock-on effect. "There's been a synchronized slowdown in trade between the U.S. and China," says Harrison. "And emerging markets exports are now much lower."

16 Feb 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Im März droht der nächste Kursrückschlag

Markets have recovered from the recent turbulence due to deaf-headed central banks and hopes of resolving the trade dispute with a brilliant rally. The economist Charles Dumas, however, fears the "buy the rumor, sell the fact".

15 Feb 2019 - The Independent

Germany feels pinch as exports to China fall

"The overriding point is that there is a genuine lack of momentum in German manufacturing, and things are unlikely to improve unless global demand - especially Chinese demand - strengthens," said Shweta Singh at economic consultancy TS Lombard. "The transitory factors holding back growth will fade, but those expecting a swift, healthy rebound in Germany will be disappointed," she said.

14 Feb 2019 - The Independent

Brexit deadline means decision time for firms here on sterling

Investment advisory firm TS Lombard believes that a no-deal exit could see the pound fall to around 1.20 to the dollar and 0.925 pence to the euro. It believes that parity against the dollar is pushing things too far and that if parity were hit against the euro it would not last long.

14 Feb 2019 - Expansion

Reacciones en la City: la política española "es un caos" pero no nos preocupa

Constantine Fraser, an analyst at the London firm TS Lombard, explains that "the consensus in economic policy in Spain is still quite broad, and there is little prospect of a big change of direction." A center-right coalition could be something more pro-business while a center-left could be more pro-consumer, but there is nothing radical on the table. " In his opinion, the big risks are a political vacuum, such as that of 2015-2016, that prevents the formation of a stable government, or an increase in tensions in Catalonia, especially if a stronger executive with the separatists emerges. "The current context is less positive due to the end of purchases of ECB bonds and the slowdown in global growth, whether due to a confrontation in Catalonia or the fragmentation in Madrid,

14 Feb 2019 - Expansion

Así ve la City el terremoto político en España

Constantine Fraser, an analyst at the London firm TS Lombard, explains that "the consensus in economic policy in Spain is still quite broad, and there is little prospect of a big change of direction." A center-right coalition could be something more pro-business while a center-left could be more pro-consumer, but there is nothing radical on the table. "

14 Feb 2019 - Barrons

A U.S. Ban of Huawei Would Reshape the Telecom Market—and Boost These Stocks

The obvious loser from a ban is Huawei, but the company would likely try to offset lost sales by intensifying its push into emerging markets, while continuing to reduce its dependence on U.S. companies, says TS Lombard China policy analyst Eleanor Olcott. Huawei didn’t respond to a request for comment about a potential ban.

14 Feb 2019 - Barrons

How to Play the Fed’s Coming Rate Cut

By contrast, at the other end of the lending market, bankers are tightening their credit standards, according to Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. This is a response to the Fed’s previous rate hikes, which have boosted the central bank’s target range for federal funds to 2.25%-2.50%, as well as narrowing the spread versus the two-year Treasury note, which yielded 2.533% Wednesday. The Fed sets the overnight fed-funds rate, while two-year note yield reflects expected future rates.

13 Feb 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Schwache Schuldner sind wieder en vogue – Anleger sollten sich dabei nicht sicher fühlen

The global corporate bond market has a volume of almost 12 trillion euros. $, of which 60% had a rating below investment quality or were not rated at all. Overall, company balance sheets seemed to be in good health, commented TS Lombard in November. US corporations would look better than European ones.

12 Feb 2019 - CNBC

Emerging markets are red hot right now. Here are three investments for the rest of 2019

"Confidence levels have increased steadily since October, backed by the government's liberal agenda," Larry Brainard, chief economist for the EM team at TS Lombard, wrote in a note. "The confidence boost is crucial to sustain the rebound but it must be followed by concrete progress on reforms. Longer-term, sustainable growth is possible only if structural reforms are made."

11 Feb 2019 - Citywire

India's latest policy moves could be a mistake

‘In effect the government has abandoned its promises to achieve fiscal consolidation,’ said Lawrence Brainard, chief emerging market economist at research firm TS Lombard. He noted that the budget deficit had already surpassed the target 3.3% of GDP for the fiscal year ending March.

11 Feb 2019 - CNBC

Tax cuts won’t have ‘dramatic’ impact on China’s economy: Economist

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says a corporate tax cut in China is a good, sustainable, long-term measure, but it will not give the economy an immediate boost.

11 Feb 2019 - Reuters

Time to TLTRO? Markets home in on details of ECB's potential new booster

Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard, said the design of the TLTRO programme would have much bearing on the rate path. “If they decide to go for a fixed interest rate on the TLTRO loans then that does suggest the ECB expects policy to remain low for a longer period,” she said.

11 Feb 2019 - Bloomberg

The World Economy Gets an Inflation Checkup This Week

“Global demand will remain soggy this year, keeping a lid on underlying inflation pressures,” said Shweta Singh, managing director of global macro at research firm TS Lombard. “Subdued global inflation could mean that policy will remain easier for longer.”

10 Feb 2019 - The Epoch Times

Is it Too Little too Late from the Fed?

“We are at a point when the yield curve shift begins to impact future growth by slowing credit extensions or even throwing them into reverse … Credit standards for commercial and industrial loans tightened in the fourth quarter … Tighter standards and weaker demand were also in evidence in real estate and consumer loans,” writes research firm TS Lombard.

09 Feb 2019 - MarketWatch

How a ‘Fed put’ could leave stock market on path for a ‘late-90s-style meltup’

Dario Perkins, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard, finds himself in the middle. The Fed could cut rates by the second half of 2019 as exports weaken and the economy begins to feel the delayed, full effects of the previous tightening in financial conditions, he said, in a Thursday note. But he doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to fall into a recession, which means that the Fed could resume hiking rates as the global economy strengthens into 2020.

09 Feb 2019 - MarketWatch

Inflation? What inflation? Falling price pressures clear runway for economy in 2019

Steve Blitz, senior economist at TS Lombard, said the Fed wants to err on the side of caution and avoid anything that undercuts the economy. The plunge in the stock market DJIA, -0.25% SPX, +0.07%  in December and tighter restrictions on credit for consumers and businesses gave them quite a fright. “To them inflation is not a 2019 problem,” he said.

08 Feb 2019 - South China Morning Post

Fed pause could reignite ‘wall of money’ for emerging markets, trade group says

Jon Harrison, managing director, emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard, said that the outlook for growth in China and the timing of when further stimulus measures by Beijing affect the economy are the biggest risk to emerging market investors. As a trade war with the United States escalated last year, China’s economy grew at its weakest pace since 1990, with the gross domestic product growth rate at 6.6 per cent in 2018. “We met with 20 institutional investors in London in late January during our China macro marketing trip,” Harrison said in a research note. “In general there was greater optimism than during our previous visit in November, centred on the prospect of new stimulus. We caution first that stimulus policy is not yet sufficiently strong to stabilise growth and second that there is a growing risk of deflation.”

08 Feb 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Dow Stages Late Rally to Keep Weekly Win Streak Alive

“We think the consensus is probably still a bit too optimistic in terms of expectations for earnings growth this year,” said Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, who noted U.S. multinationals’ exposure to foreign markets makes them vulnerable to slowdowns in China and other emerging markets. “The slowing of growth in China and the rest of Asia—well, that’s having an impact on profits.”

06 Feb 2019 - La Libre Belgique

Pourquoi le report du Brexit apparaît de plus en plus inéluctable, quoi qu'en dise Theresa May

"At this stage, it seems almost inevitable that Brexit will have to be delayed in one way or another, at least for a few weeks," said Constantine Fraser, European Policy Specialist at the research firm, TS Lombard.

06 Feb 2019 - Wall Street Journal

WTI Could Touch $60/barrel Despite Demand Headwinds

A broader improvement in risk sentiment should keep oil prices well-supported, despite near term demand headwinds due to the Lunar New Year holidays in Asia this week, says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. The combination of lower oil output from OPEC and its allies as well as the lingering risk of a greater disruption in Venezuelan production could take WTI closer to $60/barrel, he says. Oil futures have pared their modest gains in early Asian trading and March WTI is trading flat at $53.66/barrel and April Brent is down by a cent at $61.97.

05 Feb 2019 - CNBC

Delaying the Brexit deadline could leave the UK with the upper hand, experts say

"A legal headache would arise if the two sides wanted to extend past the beginning of July, which is when the new European Parliament would take up its seats, as neither side expects the U.K. to participate in May's European elections," Constantine Fraser, a European analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email. "But the two sides' lawyers are already looking at how this could be managed, and if a longer extension was clearly needed the two sides would almost certainly work something out."

02 Feb 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Why the Fed Made a U-Turn: Perceived Risks to Growth Shifted

Meanwhile, the Fed's moves to raise rates had started to bite. Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, traces the market's recent swoon and the ensuing Fed pivot to late September, when the central bank pushed interest rates above the inflation rate for the first time in a decade.

01 Feb 2019 - Bloomberg

What Economists Are Saying Ahead of January's U.S. Jobs Report

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist comments on Bloomberg Radio on the U.S. January's U.S. jobs report

01 Feb 2019 - Reuters

Fed policy turn not good news for Trump as risks mount

“The data are ... inching towards an ease,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

01 Feb 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Everything Runs on Credit, Including the Fed

Jerome Powell is responding to the shape of the yield curve, says Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard. He spoke to Daybreak Europe’s Nejra Cehic and Markus Karlsson after the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn at its January meeting, saying the FOMC is taking its cue from credit markets.

01 Feb 2019 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Fed schaltet den Autopiloten aus

In the money market, however, there are no signs of too tight liquidity. "The refinancing of the banks was never a problem during the reduction of the Fed balance sheet," says US economist Steve Blitz of the research house TS Lombard. At present, there is little difference between the interest rate at which banks lend money (with short-term securities-backed repo loans) and the interest rate at which banks park excess reserves at the Fed.

01 Feb 2019 - Channel NewsAsia

Channel NewsAsia's on India's budget

Shumita Deveshwar, Director India research, speaks on India's budget from 14:42 to 21:02.
 

31 Jan 2019 - Citywire

Will equity investors tiptoe back to Thai stocks

‘The confirmation of the election date has already boosted markets. We expect a smooth transition to the new constitutional arrangement, which will further attract foreign investors,’ said Krzysztof Halladin, Southeast Asia analyst at London-based research provider TS Lombard.

‘The tourism and consumer sectors are the most likely to benefit from political stability,’ he added.

31 Jan 2019 - The Epoch Times

Big Trouble in Little China

China’s current account balance, or the amount of exports over imports and one of the main drivers of Chinese growth over the decades is down to 0.37 percent of GDP, from 10 percent in 2008.

30 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Fed will likely reduce pace of quantitative tightening

Steven Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

29 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Brazil reclaims status as an emerging-market darling among investors amid new leadership

A formal proposal has not been presented yet and time is of the essence for Bolsonaro. The Bolsonaro administration has its best shot at implementing meaningful pension reform in the next six months, according to Elizabeth Johnson of TS Lombard. After that, it becomes more of an uphill battle.

29 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

All we need is just a little patience

The drop in reserves has yet to slow the pace of lending in the broad economy by banks, but as TS Lombard cautions: “If the Fed persisted with QT at the current pace, credit creation could soon start to face headwinds.” A lower level of bank reserves also reduces the scope for funding short-term lending activity in the repo and commercial paper sectors.

29 Jan 2019 - Barrons

A New Round of Trade Talks Could Be Just Enough to Keep Markets Calm

Eleanor Olcott, a China policy analyst at TS Lombard, says the Huawei situation shouldn’t hinder progress on a trade deal because, as the global economy slows, both sides want a resolution to the conflict.

28 Jan 2019 - Bloomberg

Trade Deals Are Less Important Than Easy Money

TS Lombard U.S. economist Steven Blitz. recall that what most shocked the market at Powell’s December post-Federal Open Market Committee press conference was his assumption that the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet (or quantitative tightening) was not even a monetary policy tool, and could continue on a sort of auto-pilot. As Blitz notes, Powell has sent some signals that he has had a change of mind.

28 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Mad or miraculous: As the euro turns 20, has monetary union been a good thing?

"The euro's main achievement is still being here, and it's very likely that it's here to stay," Constantine Fraser, European political research analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC. "This slightly mad project of a supranational currency union with wildly different economies within it has lasted 20 years and brought these economies and countries closer together." Fraser said that the biggest impact the euro has made in the region is that "it has enormously raised the cost of backtracking on the European project."

28 Jan 2019 - Reuters

Long winter's nap? Global slowdown, market fears could extend Fed pause

The Fed “needs a graceful way to back off” a three-year-old tightening cycle that was expected to continue into next year, wrote Steven Blitz, U.S. economist for TS Lombard. He said he anticipated the Fed will signal its new plans by changing the balance sheet program at this meeting or the next one in March, then be forced to cut rates later in the year.

27 Jan 2019 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

The departure from extreme monetary policy is associated with obstacles

For TS Lombard's Steven Blitz, a tapering by QT would be a defensible Fed withdrawal from the December rate hike mistake. 

25 Jan 2019 - Reuters

Bad news for EU growth is good news for bonds post ECB meet

The governing council expects key interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019. But markets have already pushed out the first hike expectations to June 2020, wrote Shweta Singh, Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard, in a note published on Monday.

25 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

Central banks do their best to mop investors’ brows

Steven Blitz at TS Lombard says the Fed needs to respond to the signal from asset prices and prevent a deterioration in markets that would raise the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. Besides signalling a pause in rate rises, that also means slowing the pace of the bank’s balance sheet reduction, also known as “quantitative tightening.” ‘’This is the critical year in terms of recession risk, not 2020,” says Mr Blitz, who is chief US economist. ‘’A recession starts this year; then a pause from the Fed and cutting the pace of QT along with China stimulus helps the economy regain altitude. That’s what Europe and Japan are waiting for.‘’

25 Jan 2019 - South China Morning Post

China, US ‘less belligerent, more cordial’ as delegation heads to Washington before Liu He

Eleanor Olcott, a China policy analyst with research firm TS Lombard, said rhetoric from both Beijing and Washington had been “less belligerent and more cordial in the run-up to these talks” with officials “keenly expressing optimism for the negotiations to culminate in a deal”.

25 Jan 2019 - Middle East Eye

Economic outlook appears bleak across key MENA countries in 2019

"The link between fiscal crisis and political crisis is not very clear," said Marcus Chenevix, a Europe, Middle East and Africa analyst at TS Lombard in London.

24 Jan 2019 - Reuters

BJP ministers trumpet jobs growth after study showed 11 million jobs lost

“There are some signs of investment revival in certain sectors, and therefore it’s entirely possible that demand for jobs in those sectors will be rising,” said Amitabh Dubey, a political analyst with consultancy TS Lombard. “The important point politically is that it’s the lower-end jobs that matter, because that is where the job destruction had happened since demonetisation,” he said, referring to the government’s overnight removal of high value bank notes from circulation in late 2016 in a bid to curtail the shadow economy and criminal activity. “It’s not clear that Naukri.com would be picking up what’s happening at that level,” Dubey said.

24 Jan 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Singh: European Growth Has Lost Momentum

Idiosyncratic factors explain much of the euro area’s slowdown, but structural factors are weighing in, says Shweta Singh, Managing Director for Global Macro at TS Lombard. She spoke to Daybreak Europe’s Anna Edwards about Europe’s loss of momentum, seeing continued weakness throughout 2019.

23 Jan 2019 - Reuters

How the budget dispute affects the US economy

Retailers like Macy's and Nordstrom complained of sluggish business in December. "There will be some industries that will suffer lasting damage, including restaurant operators," says TS Lombard's Steven Blitz. These include chains like McDonald's, Chipotle and Starbucks.

23 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

Picking up the pieces takes time

Steve Blitz from TS Lombard thinks it will take time for the recent policy tightening by the Fed and last year’s slide in equities and credit to work through the financial system and the broader economy. “We are not really out of the woods,” he says, adding that it’s important for investors to focus on leading indicators of activity, particularly that of credit and flows such as those through small bank lending. Across the US, small banks, or those institutions outside the top 25, have been very important sources of business and consumer lending, notes Steve, who adds: “Small-bank loans have increased from 55 per cent of large-bank loans when this cycle began to 75 per cent.” And since the Fed funds rate rose above 2 per cent in September, Steve says there has been a slowdown in lending from small banks and this is a very important factor to watch in the coming months.

22 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Dow snaps 4-day winning streak as fears of an economic slowdown intensify

"In the end, it will all depend on how Trump decides between a short-term outcome and longer-term aims," Jonathan Fenby, chairman of the China team at TS Lombard, said in a note Sunday. "If Trump wants a deal for his own purposes, he can side with those in the administration who think a broader agreement can be constructed to enable the two countries to revert to a less confrontational relationship which will spare US companies from further trade war damage and cheer markets while setting Beijing on a more resolute path of reform."

22 Jan 2019 - MarketWatch

More Americans are feeling pessimistic about the economy

The government shutdown, sparked by a debate between President Trump and Congress over funding for Trump’s proposed border wall, is the latest political action to affect the economy, according to Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Other “missteps” that could hurt the economy include the U.S.’s trade battle with China and the Federal Reserve’s pace in future rate increases, the economist said.

22 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

An icy forecast chills risk sentiment

Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard for one thinks “earnings are likely to grow more slowly than consensus currently anticipates” and adds:  “Taking a more realistic assumption of 5% EPS growth this year (as opposed to 10-15% consensus estimates), US equities trade at 17x forward earnings — in line with the long-term average.” 

21 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Chinese economic slowdown due to domestic issues — not trade war, strategist says

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, discusses China’s weakening economic data.

21 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Trump is skipping Davos this year — but it probably won't matter

"The U.S. does not need this quasi-public forum to communicate its thoughts, in fact I think it would be better if the current administration would communicate it's every thought a little less often," Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email. "The bigger loser of the U.S. not attending in some official capacity is Davos, as Trump basically is telling them it is an expensive boondoggle that is nice to attend, but not necessary for the U.S. government. He is right," Blitz said.

21 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Tax cuts could be the 'front line' of China's fight against slowing growth, experts say

Some say, however, that tax cuts could be of limited impact to GDP growth, and Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said they may even take six to nine months to create results.

19 Jan 2019 - The Guardian

A burst of good news can’t hide the economic hazards ahead in 2019

The doomsayers at Fathom Consulting are sticking by their prediction of a global recession in 2020. At the consultancy TS Lombard, they see a move by JP Morgan as a canary signalling trouble ahead.

18 Jan 2019 - Reuters

Shutdown clouds outlook for consumer-driven U.S. economic growth

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard said the economy appeared to be slowing down, noting reports from Macy’s, Nordstrom and other retailers talking of a weak December, and he expected the shutdown to hurt first quarter growth. “Some of it will come back in the second quarter, but there will be some industries that will see lasting damage such as restaurant operators,” he told Reuters.

18 Jan 2019 - Expansion

La City mira más allá del caos

In the next few days, May will try to start some concessions to Brussels to try to seek again the ratification of the House of Commons in a vote scheduled on January 29. Christopher Granville, an analyst at TS Lombard, stated that "the Brexit date will be delayed, it will take more time to implement Brexit, since the game between the parliamentary factions will last until February."

17 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

The rotation between EM and the US

Dario Perkins at TS Lombard in his latest Macro Picture writes:  “The Chinese are gradually moving towards policy easing but are reluctant to introduce a stimulus on the scale of their previous credit splurges. We think they will stabilize their economy by midyear, but they won’t do enough to generate a powerful global revival.”

17 Jan 2019 - Xinhua

Tariff uncertainty among big worries for U.S. retail industry

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist and managing director of TS Lombard, a research company, agreed with Yellen, saying "uncertainty makes people less willing to invest in their business and to invest in certain supply channels, because they don't know if that supply channel is going to suddenly become more or less economic than the one that existed before."

17 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Deleveraging will take a ‘backseat’ in China: TS Lombard

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says China is stimulating its economy more quickly than before, but its efforts are still not aggressive enough to reverse the downtrend.

16 Jan 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Worst May be Past, But Oil Rebound Still Fragile

Oil has bounced into bull-market territory following 4Q’s plunge. But the rebound is still fragile, says TS Lombard’s Konstantinos Venetis, with ongoing uncertainties like US-China trade, the Fed and China’s economy. 

16 Jan 2019 - MarketWatch

Why stock-market investors may soon need to worry about the government shutdown

“Bad things come in threes, or so goes the old saying, and the government shutdown looks like the third in a series of a policy missteps that have undermined the expansion and pushed the probability of a recession to the highest level since early 2007,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, in a Wednesday note, citing New York Federal Reserve Bank data.

14 Jan 2019 - Reuters

Oil falls by one percent on China trade slump, although crude imports remain high

Economic research firm TS Lombard said oil prices were capped as “the world economy is now slowing ... limiting the scope for positive surprises in oil demand and hampering inventory reduction.”

14 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Greece is facing more political turmoil: Here's what you need to know

Constantine Fraser, European analyst at research firm TS Lombard, said that Greece will probably avoid a snap election in the coming months, given that some lawmakers of Anel will continue to support the government. "Greece's creditors and the EU will be looking closely not only at the vote of confidence, but at the numbers in parliament on the government's other business," Fraser said.

11 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Hungary's new 'slave law' risks first general strike since the fall of communism

"The protests matter to Hungary, and to Europe, because so far Orban's government has been going virtually unchallenged," Constantine Fraser, European political research analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email on Thursday. "Despite occasional waves of protest in Budapest, the Hungarian opposition has been in disarray for years and Fidesz (Orban's party) has been able to gradually tighten its grip on the country and suborn its institutions," Fraser said.

10 Jan 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

Fed Will Taper The Pace Of QT But Not End It: Blitz (Radio)

Steve Blitz, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, on the key takeaways from the FOMC minutes, Fed speeches, and his current economic outlook. Hosted by Pimm Foxx and Lisa Abramowicz.

10 Jan 2019 - Bloomberg Radio

S&P Will Be At 3100 In 12 Months: Federated’s Orlando (Podcast)

Steve Blitz, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, on what the Fed will do this year. Hosted by Pimm Foxx and Lisa Abramowicz.

08 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Brazil's new president has limited time to pass key reform and keep markets happy, analyst says

"The window to pass reform in Brazil is never open for long," said Elizabeth Johnson, a managing director at TS Lombard, in a note Friday. "Sentiment could shift if the administration fails to make headway on pension reform over the next six months, thereby missing this historic opportunity."

07 Jan 2019 - Wall Street Journal

Oil’s Rebound Faces Uphill Climb

Saying the past week’s oil bounce came after the market was deeply oversold, TS Lombard senior economist Konstantinos Venetis says the bar for a sustained rally remains high due to lingering trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty and a slowing world economy.

06 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

China approves $125bn of rail projects in fiscal stimulus

Some economists argue that there is room for accelerated infrastructure spending. “China has over-invested in industrial infrastructure, but I do not think it has over invested in infrastructure overall,” said Bo Zhuang, China economist at TS Lombard in Beijing. “It is under-invested in urban and consumption related infrastructure, urban metros, sanitisation, and anything to do with urban services”.

02 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

EM stocks, currencies hit as investors flee riskier assets

“EMs were doubly hit in mid-2018 by the US-China trade war,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. “The sharp dollar rise pushed up the cost of imports, while the yuan slump made exports less remunerative — for non-oil economies that have been in large deficits for 12 years.”

02 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

Economists predict the UK economy’s trajectory in 2019

The FT polled 81 economists about prospects for 2019, see what Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist has to say..

02 Jan 2019 - Bloomberg

Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2019

This is the reader’s digest of research notes for the year ahead

02 Jan 2019 - CNBC

Chinese concessions on offer won’t change resolve of US trade hawks, strategist says

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman and managing director of European politics at TS Lombard, discusses the trade conflict between the U.S. and China.

01 Jan 2019 - Financial Times

Brexit ‘bad or awful’ for UK prospects in 2019, say economists

“The big picture is that of an economy transitioning to a lower-growth equilibrium, marked by deficient domestic demand,” said Konstantinos Venetis, of the consultancy TS Lombard. “Political instability only makes matters worse.”

01 Jan 2019 - CNBC

TS Lombard on nominal GDP growth in China

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says nominal GDP growth in China, which he sees as a proxy for corporate revenue growth, will continue to decline even if real GDP growth starts to stabilize.

30 Dec 2018 - The Times

David Smith: A downbeat year — but not for the forecasters

As Charles Dumas of the research firm TS Lombard put it in a report: “The global slowdown seems to have started in mid-2018, and shows the now-decisive importance of emerging markets... China and other emerging markets account for 40% of world GDP and their slowdown led to a sharp mid-year reduction in world trade growth... In Europe, export dependence led to a negative third-quarter GDP change in Germany and Italy.”

27 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg

China Heads Into Trade Talks Bracing for More U.S. Demands

China is eager to seal a deal while at the same time is intent on preserving its economic system, said Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China research at TS Lombard in London. It aims to give Trump enough to be able to claim victory by March, enabling it to get on with the business of modernizing its economy, he said.

25 Dec 2018 - South China Morning Post

IP and tech control will continue to inflame US-China relations, whatever the outcome of the trade talks

Larry Brainard, chief emerging market economist at investment research firm TS Lombard, feels that while the Xi-Trump meeting has helped de-escalate trade tensions, the China-US economic conflict “has moved beyond trade into the area of technology”.

TS Lombard’s China policy analyst Eleanor Olcott noted last month that previous US administrations have considered that only exports of sensitive military technology to China constitute a “national security risk” but that Washington is now proposing to widen “this definition to include a wide array of emerging technologies, including AI, robotics and biotechnology”.

21 Dec 2018 - Financial Times

There will be a painful wait for clarity on this market tempest

The consensus among investors is that the suppression of government bond yields via QE boosted risk assets such as equities and credit. As the Fed unwinds its balance sheet and the European Central Bank ends its own bond-buying this year, analysts at TS Lombard estimate that “net liquidity provision by the G4 central banks will start to contract by the start of next year”.

21 Dec 2018 - ZeroHedge

Things That Won't Happen In 2019

TS Lombard's Dario Perkins offers his traditional (light-hearted) look at the year ahead... How Trump settles the trade war and Mario Draghi saves the euro, plus a gloomy future for sellside research

20 Dec 2018 - The Telegraph

Fed's Powell tells world to 'drop dead' with potent double-barreled tightening

Shweta Singh from TS Lombard said European banks lack access to stable dollar deposits and rely on short-term funding from the wholesale capital market to plug the gap, leaving them “particularly vulnerable to bouts of stress.” The STOXX 600 Banks index in Europe has crashed by 18pc over the last three months.

19 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Trade war has had ‘huge’ impact on growth, economist says

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, gave a gloomy outlook for the global economy in 2019.

19 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Italy's bonds, banks and equities boosted by budget breakthrough

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC's Street Signs that Italy seemed to have done just enough for now to reassure markets.

19 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

The Fed Decides (Podcast)

The Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs for the fourth time this year, ignoring a stock-market selloff and defying pressure from President Donald Trump, while dialing back projections for interest rates and economic growth in 2019. We break down the news and market reaction with Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard. 

19 Dec 2018 - MarketWatch

Defying Trump, Fed hikes interest rates by a quarter-point

“The immediate market reaction has been that the statement is less dovish than anticipated,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “Perhaps people had unrealistic expectations about what the Fed would say.”

18 Dec 2018 - The Street

Trump-Era Budget Deficits Turn Treasury Bonds Into Unsafe Haven

"This year you don't have any more tax cuts, but you created the deficit that now has to get funded," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecasting firm TS Lombard. "It'll require an inflow of capital and that means higher rates."

18 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg

Ferreting Out Three Fed Rate Scenarios

This comment from Steve Blitz of TS Lombard makes the point clearly enough: Critical for Powell and the FOMC is to not be seen as responding to equity market volatility, a necessary price-discovery exercise the economy requires to efficiently direct capital. With the return of money markets as a viable asset class (something we have been writing about for a while), a re-pricing of risk assets after 10 years of zero yields was always going to be necessary (somehow that thought got lost along the way among market participants) and was never going to be easy, or necessarily quick.

16 Dec 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

The dilemmas of the European Central Bank

So draghi is in a dilemma, says Shweta Singh, a euro zone economist with TS Lombard. While growth prospects allowed quantitative easing to end, Draghi also saw growing risks. Part of the dilemma, Singh emphasizes, is that the euro area has been too much limited to monetary stimulus.

13 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg

A Billionaire Vanished for 400 Days and His Empire Boomed

“Liquid assets were shifted out quite quickly after the purge,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. The crackdown targeted wealthy members of the business elite from Jeddah in particular, a group -- Al Amoudi included -- who prospered in part through ties to King Abdullah and King Fahd. King Salman was a former governor of Riyadh and things were “tense from the moment he came in,” Chenevix said.

12 Dec 2018 - Financial Times

Investors can smooth out friction wrought by deglobalisation

Shweta Singh, managing director, global macro, at TS Lombard points out that the trade has really shifted to the eurozone, where French and Spanish bonds offer a meaningful yield pick-up. The euro hedging costs are negligible for yen-based investors, courtesy of the ECB’s negative interest rate policy. Indeed, adds Ms Singh, Japanese investors are still getting paid to hedge out euro risk.

12 Dec 2018 - EM Views

Departure Of RBI Governor Points To Rift With Government

The government has also been asking the RBI to provide more liquidity support to help non-bank finance companies as well as small- and medium-sized firms, but the central bank has seemed wary of risking longer-term financial stability for a short-term push to economic growth. “Banks’ non-performing assets (NPAs) are expected to continue rising in the current fiscal year, having increased sharply since the RBI forced banks to proactively declare their stressed assets as bad,” Shumita Deveshwar, a New Delhi-base senior director with TS Lombard wrote in a note to clients on December 10.

12 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Huawei arrest 'definitely connected' to US-China conflict: TS Lombard

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard weighs in on the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. He also says the U.S. and China are showing "good signals" that they are willing to engage each other.

12 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Trump makes one last try to get the Fed to ease up, but it likely won't work

Powell "has a clear path from the marketplace to raise 25 basis points. There's no reason for him not to," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. "Given all the noise from Trump, it would probably do his credibility and the Fed's credibility more harm if they skipped December."

12 Dec 2018 - Financial Times

In rural India, the good days for Narendra Modi may be over

Practicalities for any programme are a challenge. “Implementation remains frustratingly slow,” notes Shumita Deveshwar, an analyst for research house TS Lombard. “Corruption is rampant at lower levels.”

11 Dec 2018 - MarketWatch

Small-business sentiment slumps to 7-month low in November

“When considering the record high levels of optimism, one would think small firms would increasingly opt for capital over labor, especially given the unplanned increase in wages, complaints over the quality of labor candidates and the easy availability of capital (contrary to what they say). Perhaps confidence is not quite as strong as the survey suggests,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, after the release of the October NFIB survey.

“Whenever we see sentiment run up so fast to such high levels, we suspect it can reverse just as quickly,” Blitz added. “This possibility may very well be the signal small businesses are sending given how their commitments to expand increasingly focuses on labor rather than capital. Opinions are cheap and machinery is much more expensive than labor.”

11 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Asia stocks higher on news of possible easing in US-China tensions

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, said that Beijing's intentions to cut auto import tariffs is simply "a small step in de-escalation."

"The car import tariffs in other countries, currently they're all 15 percent. The reduction from 40 percent to 15 percent is just an equal level with other countries, that's all," he told CNBC's "Street Signs."

10 Dec 2018 - Reuters

Factbox - Diverse Brexit vote scenarios pose sterling conundrum

An emphatic defeat for May by a margin of around 100 votes leaves her withdrawal agreement in tatters and propels sterling into the unknown. Such a conclusive thumbs-down could convince markets that Britain is heading inescapably towards a no-deal Brexit and will push sterling below $1.20, Oliver Brennan, a strategist at TS Lombard predicts.

10 Dec 2018 - CNBC

German coalition likely to survive until the next election, political analyst says

Constantine Fraser, analyst for European political research at TS Lombard, discusses Angela Merkel’s successor as leader of Germany’s CDU party.

10 Dec 2018 - Agence France Presse

May contrainte de reporter le vote du Parlement sur l'accord de Brexit

For Constantine Fraser, expert in European politics at TS Lombard, the main reason for delaying the vote is, for the executive, "to try to obtain other concessions, even symbolic, to give his deputies who still hesitate a excuse to vote this agreement ".

10 Dec 2018 - Reuters

Sterling nears 3-month low as investors prepare for Brexit vote

An emphatic defeat for May by a margin of around 100 votes would leave her withdrawal agreement in tatters and propel sterling into the unknown. Such a conclusive thumbs-down could convince markets that Britain is heading towards a no-deal Brexit and push the currency below $1.20, said Oliver Brennan, a strategist at TS Lombard.

09 Dec 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Don’t Expected Sustained Rebound for Oil Prices

With the world economy slowing OPEC likely faces an uphill road to enable a sustained oil rally, posits Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard.

07 Dec 2018 - Valor Economico

Prison is part of technological competition

Negotiations on US-China trade relations and the arrest of Huawei's chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou on Saturday are a reflection of two separate conflicts between the two powers, says chief US economist Steven Blitz at TS Lombard.

07 Dec 2018 - Barrons

It’s the Stock Market, Stupid

The rise of part-timers is paralleled by the upturn in initial unemployment claims, adds Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Those data don’t jibe with the “universal mind-set of too many job openings and not enough qualified applicants,” he adds in a client note.

07 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

European Risks, Market Volatility, Jobs Report (Podcast)

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, breaks down the November employment report and outlook for Fed policy. 

06 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Markets are turning up the heat on the Fed to dial back rate hikes

"How the FOMC chooses to react will greatly determine whether the expansion continues or rolls into recession," says Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

04 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg

Trump, Xi Got What They Wanted in a Stronger Yuan

Here is an important point from Jonathan Fenby, a long-term China expert at TS Lombard: "At heart, Trump knows that the audience wants him to play a presidential role. And so he delivered the tariff pause. This also serves to underscore China’s view that Trump’s electoral headaches allow them to play for time until the next president arrives. China may be miscalculating: what Trump let loose is not going away; it will just be handled differently by the next administration, regardless of party."

04 Dec 2018 - South China Morning Post

The Xi-Trump trade truce may not end in a peace treaty, and markets should prepare accordingly

Eleanor Olcott, a China policy strategist at investment research firm TS Lombard, argued that the trade war has “morphed into a broader economic confrontation which is set to be long and ugly”, adding that, for example, “the [Trump] administration is capitalising on grievances against [intellectual property] theft to push through moves to block China from acquiring cutting-edge expertise”.

04 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Beijing's economic 'red lines' may clash with Trump's 90-day plan, analysts say

Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to continue lending state support to targeted industries, particularly in technology under the "Made in China 2025" program, according to TS Lombard's Eleanor Olcott.

03 Dec 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Xi, China Using Truce to Form U.S. Trade Strategy, Fenby Says

Jonathan Fenby, chairman of the China Team at TS Lombard, examines the trade truce reached by the United States and China at the Group of 20 meeting. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

03 Dec 2018 - MarketWatch

‘Good’ but ‘notably light’ — how analysts are reacting to the U.S.-China trade announcement

“The move from unilateral action by the U.S. to bilateral negotiations is a process Beijing has urged since talks broke down in the early summer. But there is no evidence that a start has been made on bridging fundamental differences, in particular the ambition of the president’s trade team to get the People’s Republic to dismantle its Party State system and abandon the economic modernization ambitions of its Made in China 2025 program. Ninety days seems much too short a time to achieve much on this front given the political implications of any systemic change in the China model. With the path to a deal extremely unclear on structural issues laid out by the White House, such as forced technology transfer, IP protection, cyber theft and non-tariff barriers, the Trump administration will face the choice between reverting to 25% tariffs or declaring that enough progress has been made to merit a further postponement for more negotiation.” — TS Lombard economists.

02 Dec 2018 - The Spectator

How China views the Xi-Trump summit today

They are reduced to putting their hopes on the president's desire to come out with a deal, says Jonathan Fenby, Chairman China team at TS Lombard.

02 Dec 2018 - CNBC

Fed Chair Powell survives a critical week, now faces even bigger tests ahead

"In sum, what happens next is watching Powell act out on his belief that he can let the economy manage itself and thereby hold the funds rate steady for an extended period, as [Alan] Greenspan did in the mid-1990s," Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note, referring to the former Fed chairman. "We think [Powell's] belief will prove misguided — the situation today is so very different," Blitz added.

02 Dec 2018 - South China Morning Post

Hopes for second Brexit referendum reach fever pitch, but is it too late?

“There is a growing momentum behind the campaign for a second referendum,” said Constantine Fraser, an analyst research consultancy TS Lombard. “It will become a serious option on the table if, or more likely when, Theresa May’s deal is voted down. “I wouldn’t say it’s a probability, but it’s a likelihood that’s growing fast.”

30 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Slowing demand and a supply glut to drain oil's gains in 2019: Reuters Poll

“Uncertainty over U.S. sanctions against Iran had made the market fixated with supply. The waivers changed the arithmetic, raising the possibility of a supply glut developing in 2019,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TSL Research.

30 Nov 2018 - Forbes

Investors Catch The Gold Bug Again

The economy is slowing already, and some predict growth could dip below 2% soon, according to a recent report from London-based financial firm TS Lombard. That would be a sharp slowdown from 4.2% and 3.5% in the second and third quarters.

30 Nov 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Surveillance: A Framework Trade Deal

Jonathan Fenby, TSLombard Chairman, says the trade war has come at an inconvenient time for Xi Jinping. 

28 Nov 2018 - MarketWatch

New-home sales fall to a nearly 3-year low; inventory surges as housing-market outlook darkens

“If the economy manages to right itself with real wage growth expanding and housing affordability holding relatively steady (prices and mortgage rates), there is a sufficient backlog of demand to reboot housing for this cycle,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, after the release of October housing starts data earlier in the month. “Pay your money and take your chances, this is the bet to be made if your view on housing leans towards ‘soft patch’. Our outlook is that because the buildup in housing was never big enough for a ‘collapse’, the coming downswing in residential construction, and the housing sector more broadly, will drag down GDP growth but not enough to flip total growth negative.”

28 Nov 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Outcome of US-China Talks May Set Tone for OPEC

“But with inventories building again, Riyadh should be able to achieve a compromise, even if this means shouldering more of the adjustment,” says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at T.S Lombard.

27 Nov 2018 - CNBC

China will double down on domestic tech investment to offset trade war impact

Rory Green, China and South Korea economist at TS Lombard, discusses how the trade war between China and the U.S. may impact the global tech sector.

27 Nov 2018 - MoneyWeek

Will Jerome Powell toss markets a bone, or leave them hungry?

Steven Blitz of TS Lombard argues that the Fed is likely to tread a middle path. The next big meeting is on 18 and 19 December. They will raise rates as planned, but they will adjust the “forward trajectory for policy rates”. In turn, that could “cause the dollar to fall some, and in turn, help stabilise the US and global economies”.

27 Nov 2018 - South China Morning Post

Taiwan elections may give economy brief boost as US-China trade war threatens tech sector

“I would say the trade war is a major risk that will probably counteract or play down any positive sentiment that comes out of this election,” said Eleanor Olcott, China policy analyst at the research firm TS Lombard, who described the trade war as the “greatest headwind” for Taiwan’s economy.

26 Nov 2018 - The Street

Stock Market Correction Puts Federal Reserve's Powell in Hot Seat

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecasting firm TS Lombard, wrote Monday in a report that the central bank may pause its rate-hiking cycle after March 2019 and then "take a bow for a job well done." As for the Fed's December meeting, the central bank is likely to "take a middle road, raising rates as planned but easing the adjustment process by lowering the forward trajectory for policy rates," Blitz wrote.

25 Nov 2018 - Expansion

British Parliament threatens to veto May's Brexit

"Even assuming generously that half of the conservative rebels are forced to support the government, this still implies that if there is not a sudden change of dynamics, the agreement will be rejected," says Constantine Fraser, political analyst at TS Lombard. "This conclusion is quickly becoming almost a consensus in London."

24 Nov 2018 - Middle East Eye

Trump and the Saudi effect: What's really driving down oil prices?

Konstantinos Venetis, a senior economist at London-based financial firm TS Lombard, said the Saudis' recent production increase was likely a response to Trump’s worries that oil prices were rising.

23 Nov 2018 - Financial Times

Brent crude hits 2018 low under $60 as oil slide deepens

“The reality is that consumption is slowing at the same time as crude production is rising,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. “Softer restrictions on Iran have changed the arithmetic, however, raising the possibility of a supply glut developing in 2019.”

23 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Expect a photo op and a 'mock deal' at the Trump-Xi meeting — not a long-term truce

There will be temporary market relief from the much-touted meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G-20 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, said Bo Zhuang, chief economist and director of China research at TS Lombard.

23 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Breakthrough or breakdown: G20 sets trade war turning point

“This conclusion – that the base case is that the (House of) Commons will vote against the deal - is rapidly becoming something approaching a consensus in London,” TS Lombard analyst Constantine Fraser wrote in a research note.

22 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Italy lacking political will to implement the right fiscal measures

Davide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard, discusses Rome’s standoff with Brussels over fiscal policy.

21 Nov 2018 - Barrons

Housing Is Faltering. Maybe the Fed Will Notice.

Given the importance of housing, it’s not surprising that it’s a leading indicator for overall growth. Builders’ sentiment has a good record of forecasting unemployment 18 months out, according to Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Their more negative view points to a rise in the jobless rate to around 4.5% by mid-2020, he adds. (A glance at the calendar shows the presidential election campaign would be in full swing then.)

21 Nov 2018 - Financial Times

European bourses rise as global stock rout fades

“Intensifying risks to world growth constitute a drag on the oil price,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. “Both Opec and the International Energy Agency have trimmed their consumption estimates for this year and next. Coupled with tighter global dollar liquidity and souring financial market sentiment, this is a bearish combination for oil prices.”

20 Nov 2018 - MarketWatch

Huge U.S. trade deficit with China may prevent Trump and Xi from year-end deal

“While Trump would declare this a victory, it would also be acceptable to Beijing since it would commit China only to talk,” according to Jonathan Fenby, a managing director at TS Lombard.

20 Nov 2018 - Financial Times

Tech wreck rattles buyers of the dip

Here’s TS Lombard: “Short term, unexpected weakness in the tech sector could have a significant impact on the global economy, adding to what already looks like a soggier macro environment.” They add:  “The lesson of recent weeks is that the tech sector is also vulnerable to global monetary tightening and a more generalised widening in risk premiums.”

20 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Dow plunges more than 500 points, erases gain for 2018

"Short term, unexpected weakness in the tech sector could have a significant impact on the global economy, adding to what already looks like a soggier macro environment," said Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, in a note. "Additional retrenchment in the FAANGs could also undermine the broader US stock market."

20 Nov 2018 - Barrons

The Dow Plunged 552 Points Because Everybody’s Losing Now

One big concern about tech stocks is the possible smartphone saturation, as various Apple suppliers cut sales forecasts last week. “With 70% of people already owning a smartphone, you can see why this is a worry,” writes Dario Perkins from TS Lombard. The weakness in the industry could spill over well beyond just Apple and its suppliers to the entire global economy, suggests Perkins.

19 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Trump is 'showing signs' of wanting a deal with Xi: TS Lombard

Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard says U.S. President Donald Trump is showing "signs of caution" about raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent because the move could hurt American companies more than it hurts China.

18 Nov 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Die hohe globale Verschuldung wird zum Wachstumsrisiko

Dario Perkins of TS Lombard raises the question of whether there is a systemic risk. Although the corporate sector looks generally healthy. 

17 Nov 2018 - The Telegraph

Brexit chaos wipes £21bn off blue-chip UK stocks

The political turmoil could “trigger serious foreign exchange and financial market volatility, with likely contagion from the UK to Europe”,  predicted Christopher Granville, an analyst at TS Lombard.

16 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Watch out for the return of "Rocket Man"

"Having fulfilled its share of the contract, Beijing feels aggrieved, its economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea has not been paid back." says Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard.

16 Nov 2018 - The Telegraph

Sterling holds up as hedge funds bet on May victory or second referendum

“The pound is simultaneously high and low,” said TS Lombard, likening the Brexit conundrum to “Schrodinger’s Cat”  - a concept borrowed from quantum mechanics. “The current price of sterling on your screens can be characterised as the superposition of all possible Brexit end states.” TS Lombard’s Christopher Granville says sterling would crash 20pc in a Brexit bust-up, but is more likely to rise by 10pc when the opera buffa in Parliament is over and people discover that Theresa May is still there, and that nothing has really changed. Britain will still be in the EU in all but name for years to come. Such asymmetric forms of risk are very hard for markets to trade.  

16 Nov 2018 - The Middle East Eye

How finance technology can grow Middle East economies

"For decades regional banks have made a healthy profit of simply recycling oil rents – the whole idea of building a mass consumer base is relatively new," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at London-based financial firm TS Lombard.

16 Nov 2018 - Barrons

The Bubble in Corporate Bonds Everyone’s Talking About Probably Isn’t Ready to Burst

But as Dario Perkins from TS Lombard writes in a note today: "...history suggests it is economic downturns, not debt repayment, which causes a major spike in defaults." The debt burden could make a downturn worse, but probably won't cause the downturn itself, he says. And currently, signs of trouble in the U.S. economy are scarce.

16 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Stocks post steep weekly losses as Facebook, Amazon and Apple shares struggle

Christopher Granville, a managing director at TS Lombard, still thinks a so-called hard Brexit will be avoided. "The fact that the U.K. government is risking its political life by agreeing the present draft deal implicitly recognizes that the alternative of heading for a crash-out would certainly be an act of political suicide," Granville said.

16 Nov 2018 - Bloomberg

Hedge Funds Debunk ‘Indexers Killed My Rally’ Theory of Sell-Off

“The stocks that were sold were also very volatile, which means if there wasn’t a concurrent buy as part of the rebalance, then they would probably move a lot more than average,” said Oliver Brennan, a London-based macro strategist at TS Lombard, who wrote a note arguing that sector rebalancing helped stocks roll over. “I’m not trying to suggest the trigger and the sole cause for the selloff was the rebalance, but it happened at the exact worst time.”

15 Nov 2018 - The Irish Independent

ECB's new chapter won't see sharp rate rises anytime soon

Investors are worried that it will "reinforce upward pressure on global yields" according to Shweta Singh, senior global economist at economic consultancy TS Lombard.

15 Nov 2018 - Forbes

Wall Street Second Guesses Fed Resolve To Push Up Interest Rates

Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, says a December rate hike is basically a done deal but "the question is 2019. Here, the outlook is less certain than the dot plot suggests."

15 Nov 2018 - CNBC

World economy is going through an adjustment process

Steven Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses market trends in various economies.

15 Nov 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Fed to Halt Quarterly Hikes Beyond March

The Federal Reserve won’t chase inflation next year, says Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. He told Daybreak Europe’s Markus Karlsson that policymakers will refrain from rate hikes after March to avoid inverting the yield curve. He foresees U.S. growth slowing to 2 percent next year.

13 Nov 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Oil Supplies Above 5-Year Average Needed for Cut

The prospect of another OPEC-led production cut would be more likely if global inventories make another extended stay above five-year averages, said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard.

12 Nov 2018 - Financial Times

China’s debt mountain ‘to fall’ as share of GDP next year

“The deleveraging continues on the shadow banking side of things, but the credit is still flowing for local government and bank lending,” said Rory Green, economist at TS Lombard, who estimated the year-on-year rate of credit contraction within the shadow banking sector was 6.9 per cent. Mr Green said he expected “deleveraging and financial risk control to remain a key focus for Beijing. We are told Liu He, president Xi’s top economic adviser, is fixated on this, almost to the expense of the economy,” he added.

11 Nov 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Die Normalisierung der Zinsen holt zerstörerische Kräfte zurück – eine Bilanz zum Programm der US-Notenbank

The looming end of global quantitative easing also means that the global liquidity surge is coming to an end. At least for US government bonds, there is an imbalance, as Shweta Singh of TS Lombard points out. The Fed has become a net seller of net buyers, international demand is falling, and the US government is increasing its debt.

09 Nov 2018 - CNBC

Hong Kong falls more than 2 percent, other Asia markets slide after Fed keeps rates unchanged

"The upshot is that there will be more noise and volatility on China," TS Lombard's chief U.S. economist, Steve Blitz, said in a note on Thursday, commenting on the post-election environment. Many Democrats, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, are "China hawks," Blitz said.

09 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Fed legt Zinspause ein und lässt Tür für weitere Erhöhung offen

According to economist Steve Blitz of analyst TS Lombard, the central bank will face a dilemma in the late phase of the upswing in 2019, as inflation picks up and the boom is likely to slow down: "Sometime next year, Powell will have to decide on: prices stay on the heels or react to weaker growth. "

09 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Commentary: Stock market, economy "gloom loop" risks mount

Since 1929, U.S. stocks have suffered an average drawdown of 30 percent on 28 occasions, only 15 of which involved recessions, according to Dario Perkins at TS Lombard. Sometimes, like 1987, steep market declines don’t precede recession, while sometimes, like 2008, they do. There have been peak-to-trough declines of at least 15 percent in 11 calendar years since 1980. Five coincided with recession, six did not, according to Perkins.

08 Nov 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Cicione: Trade War Escalation Biggest Risk After Midterms

An acceleration in the U.S.-China trade war continues to loom large after the midterm elections delivered a split Congress, says Andrea Cicione, Head of Macro Strategy at TS Lombard. He spoke to Daybreak Europe’s Markus Karlsson about how bipartisan consensus over a tough stance on China won’t lead to a change of agenda. He also spoke about the likelihood of the Fed putting rate hikes to a halt early next year as U.S. growth is expected to slowdown.

07 Nov 2018 - Reuters

Fed likely on steady course even as U.S. political landscape shifts

“The U.S. economy is looking more late cycle. You are seeing a slow-motion cleaving of price and activity. Prices are turning up and activity is starting to slow,” TS Lombard chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz said. “Sometime next year Powell will face the choice. Chase prices or react to slower growth.”

07 Nov 2018 - The Telegraph

Trump's reckless economic gamble has failed and the political noose is tightening

Perhaps Speaker Nancy Pelosi will give Trump a partial reprieve of sorts. Common ground exists on spending for roads, bridges, and infrastructure. But the Democrats will keep him on a tight leash before the next election. “They are not going to give him anything to run on, any victories,” said Steve Blitz from TS Lombard.

05 Nov 2018 - The Telegraph

Explosive risks of China’s debt balloon

“As the economy slows, demand is falling and activity is declining, you would expect corporate profits to decline and the pressure on these smaller less politically connected corporates to increase,” says Rory Green at TS Lombard. If debt dramatically increases “it is something to worry about” but the fact that Beijing has “recognised” the risk is an important step, he argues. “That shows the risk is still there but they are aware of it and they are very much on top of what’s going on. There is a risk of policy missteps but the risk of a sudden financial crisis is declining.”

02 Nov 2018 - CNBC

October jobs report on deck

Charles Dumas of TS Lombard weighs in on the big jobs number.

31 Oct 2018 - The Irish Independent

Eurozone growth slows as US powers to new high

"The divergence in economic performance within the euro area is also increasing, limiting the ECB's options," said Shweta Singh, MD of Global Macroeconomics at advisory firm TS Lombard in London. "The central bank will likely downgrade its growth assessment in December and adopt a more dovish end to its quantitative-easing programme than previously expected."

30 Oct 2018 - Financial Times

Russia-Saudi Arabia rapprochement reshapes more than the oil market

But Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, a research consultancy, says that while the relationship proved more enduring than analysts expected, short-term shared goals mask longer-term divergence on both oil and geopolitics. A higher oil price encourages production elsewhere, and giving up market share to other producers, mainly the US shale oil industry. While Saudi Arabia, which needs $70 oil to balance its budget, is happy to make this sacrifice, Moscow breaks even at just $40 a barrel. “Russia has no such need” to give up market share for higher prices, Mr Granville said.

30 Oct 2018 - Expansion

When will the pound 'rally'

"We are waiting for the pound to fall further before buying," says Oliver Brennan, strategist at TS Lombard.

30 Oct 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Bounce Back From Monday Rout

Technology stocks “were priced beyond perfection,” said Ollie Brennan, a senior macro strategist at T.S. Lombard. He said losses in the tech sector represent a healthy adjustment of expectations, even if the size and duration of the recent market decline have been surprising. “The selloff was warranted in the bigger picture,” said Mr. Brennan. “There’s still impetus for equities to rise. But it’s not going to be a 15%-per-year rise.”

30 Oct 2018 - The middle East Eye

Saudi economy may pay high price for Khashoggi killing

“The main implication concerns underlying political risk," such as doubts about the country's stability, says a recent report from London-based financial firm TS Lombard. “The implication affects our view of the investment case for Saudi Arabia making sense only in the long-term.” The report also notes that “chronic government instability would impair” investor returns, and, “this is not a market that can shrug off government turmoil”.

29 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Brazil election a vote against populism

Larry Brainard, chief emerging markets economist at TS Lombard, discusses the result of the Brazilian presidential election.

29 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Economist sees the dollar-yuan hitting 7.7-7.8 by end-2019

Bo Zhuang of TS Lombard says he sees a "market-driven passive devaluation" of the Chinese yuan, bringing the currency to "about 7,7, 7.8" against the greenback by the end of 2019.

25 Oct 2018 - CNBC

China and Japan are expected to ink 'a lot' of deals as their leaders meet in Beijing

Abe is accompanied by a 500-strong business delegation, which is expected to pitch aggressively in hopes of reaching China's burgeoning middle-class consumers, said Rory Green, an Asia economist at TS Lombard.

25 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Beijing is working hard to prevent US-Japan alliance: Expert

Rory Green, an economist focusing on Asia at TS Lombard, discusses the US-Japan partnership and the future alliances.

25 Oct 2018 - MarketWatch

Pending home sales snap back in September after 4-month losing streak

“Rising real mortgage rates and zero Y/Y growth in real average hourly earnings is not what builds strong housing markets,” wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard, after the release of the new-home sales data Thursday.

“While we are upbeat about wages in the coming year, as wage growth is a lagging indicator, 10-year Treasury yields (the price basis for mortgages) are not dropping off anytime soon,” Blitz added. “With a large budget deficit to fund and the Fed far from shifting to an easing trajectory, the only direction for the real cost of money is up.”

24 Oct 2018 - Financial Times

The price of populism

Charles Dumas is a British macroeconomist. He is an unconventional and often penetrating analyst of the global economy, as chief economist at TS Lombard. His latest book "Populism and Economics" helps illuminate aspects of the important, complex and often threatening contemporary developments.

24 Oct 2018 - Het Financieele Dagblad

Beijing is pushing the private sector just a bit too hard

Private entrepreneurs enjoyed considerable freedoms under Deng, recalls Jonathan Fenby from consulting firm TS Lombard. He does not expect Xi's visit to herald the same period of easing. 'Under Xi the role of the party state has been strengthened and we see increased political control over the private sector.'

19 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Economist discusses the possible outcomes if Bolsonaro wins

Larry Brainard of TS Lombard says a win by Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro is "going to lead to a very significant hope rally."

19 Oct 2018 - Barrons

What to Blame as Housing Drags on the Economy

“The easy answer isn’t, however, always the right one (remember the SATs),” quips Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for TS Lombard. Affordability is dropping to where it was around the turn of the century, before the lowering of lending standards set off the never-to-be-repeated housing boom and ensuing financial crisis of a decade ago.

19 Oct 2018 - Reuters

Correlation between euro, Italian bond moves at 5-year high

“There is a view which is not really consensus yet, but there is momentum towards the view that the ECB will probably adopt a more dovish exit than what has been priced, as a result of Italy and also because of expansion not being that strong,” said Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard.

19 Oct 2018 - Barrons

It’s Time to Bet on British Stocks — Even With Brexit Looming

“Cool heads have prevailed, and cool heads will keep prevailing,” says Konstantinos Venetis, a senior economist at London-based financial firm TS Lombard. He says that getting to a point where the U.K. leaves the EU without some form of a trade deal, also known as “hard Brexit,” isn’t likely. “The bar for a hard Brexit is pretty high,” Venetis contends. Instead, he sees a deal before the March deadline. Without one, Britain has much to lose, and so does the EU. “If tomorrow we get a smooth deal, then you would see a jump in sterling to $1.40,” he maintains. At that point, U.K. stocks, especially domestically focused ones, would rise in dollar terms.

18 Oct 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Dumas: Yuan Weakness Determined by US Trade War

The Yuan needs to go down a further 10-15 percent just to accommodate the impact of the tariff war says Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard. Speaking to Daybreak Europe’s Nejra Cehic he argues that there’s nothing justifiable about the tensions in pure trade-terms. It’s a question of who’s number one in the world.

18 Oct 2018 - Wall Street Journal

About that Oil Rally to $100...

Despite what had been bullish sentiment, a quick run to $100/barrel for oil is unlikely, says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard.

17 Oct 2018 - Reuters

Hurricane Florence, rising mortgage rates hurt U.S. homebuilding

“The flattening of housing construction is essentially in place,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. “Wage growth has begun to improve but not enough to give people the necessary income to carry a mortgage - especially for younger families, many still working out from under student loans.”

16 Oct 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

What the interest rate differential means for investors

According to Andrea Cicione, Head of Investment Strategy of the research house TS Lombard, the difference is "unusually high". "Unusual is not only the height, but that the growth and the inflation difference between Germany and the US can not explain the difference," he says.

16 Oct 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The chart of the day

For all EU Member States considered by TS Lombard, this risk premium is closely related to the average credit rating of the three major agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. The only outlier is Italy, where the spread is significantly higher than the rating justifies.

In order to regain balance in the longer term, either the spread to Germany would have to fall by 2 percentage points or the rating of Italy would have to be reduced by three levels.

The rating agencies, which should be reclassified toward the end of the month, are unlikely to ban Italy from junk (non-investment grade, Ba1 or worse), according to TS Lombard. Too massive would be the market distortions that would trigger such a step.

16 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Talk of a US recession in 2020 is a little premature

TS Lombard analyst Dario Perkins has highlighted the four conditions for a recession to occur: 1) accelerating inflation 2) a squeeze on corporate profits 3) tight monetary policy and 4) macroeconomic imbalances such as asset bubbles.

11 Oct 2018 - MarketWatch

Here’s why oil prices are another worry for stock-market investors

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro strategy at TS Lombard, called rising oil prices one of two “main threats to an already soggier outlook,” along with the prospect of a trade war between the U.S. and other major economies. “Rising oil prices could eventually sap U.S. real incomes, undermining the world’s consumer of first and last resort,” he wrote in a research report.

11 Oct 2018 - CNBC

The global economic impact of $100 oil 'isn't trivial': Here are the likely winners and losers

"Trump's sanctions have raised the stakes, and the market is now driven by fear," Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard, said in a research note published Monday. "But at this juncture we think it makes sense to lean against further oil price strength instead of chasing this rally. And if we see $100 on short notice, it would probably be as good a selling opportunity as in July 2008," he added.

10 Oct 2018 - Zerohedge

‘Ground Zero’ – Will The Dollar Shortage Kick Off The Next Financial Crisis?

“The cost of borrowing dollars, especially offshore dollars, will continue to rise. Putting considerable pressure on global financing conditions.” Says Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “The main threat to global financing is an offshore dollar squeeze.”

09 Oct 2018 - CNBC

Italy's anti-establishment government hopes the rules change in its favor next May

"The European Parliament elections are going to return an unprecedentedly fragmented result, with the big center-right and center-left families smaller than ever, and new parties — from liberals and greens to left and right radicals — doing better than ever," Constantine Fraser, a European political analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email.

08 Oct 2018 - CNBC

China will opt to have a passive devaluation: Analyst

Bo Zhuang, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the trade war impact on Chinese markets.

03 Oct 2018 - Wall Street Journal

The False Sense of Security Behind Corporate Debt

Debt has been cheap and plentiful, but companies may also have been encouraged to borrow by high and rising stock prices. Steven Blitz, U.S. economist at TS Lombard, thinks public companies and their lenders have gotten too comfortable with high equity valuations when thinking about debt levels, rather than focusing on income or cash on hand. This is a bit like mortgage lenders relying on home values rather than households’ ability to repay, even if public corporate equity can’t literally be used as collateral in the way homes are.

03 Oct 2018 - Reuters

"Quitaly" gauges flicker but don't flash as Italy heads for budget clash

“We think the key worry for markets right now is not an ‘Italexit’, but the impact from a wider fiscal deficit on Italy’s debt sustainability, especially given the backdrop of a fast-approaching end to ECB QE,” said TS Lombard senior economist Shweta Singh.

02 Oct 2018 - South China Morning Post

After the trade war, US-China relations will not be the same again

In reality, neither Beijing nor Washington may think a return to the trade relationship of the recent past is possible or desirable. “China’s leaders have been forced into a fundamental reassessment of the country’s development strategy,” Larry Brainard, chief emerging markets economist at investment research firm TS Lombard, wrote last month.

01 Oct 2018 - Zerohedge

Emerging Markets Slammed By Soaring Oil Prices

Emerging markets already have a lot of problems as it is, and when you throw an oil price spike to the mix, that creates another big risk factor,” said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets strategy at TS Lombard

28 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Emerging Markets’ Double Whammy: Expensive Oil, Weak Currencies

"Emerging markets already have a lot of problems as it is, and when you throw an oil price spike to the mix, that creates another big risk factor," said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets strategy at TS Lombard.

28 Sep 2018 - Reuters

Commentary: Risks of global dollar shortage are rising

“The cost of borrowing dollars, especially offshore dollars, will continue to rise, putting considerable pressure on global financing conditions,” says Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “The main threat to global financing is an offshore dollar squeeze.”

28 Sep 2018 - Barrons

Housing’s Hard Lesson for Stocks

In actuality, the greatest beneficiary of ultraeasy monetary policies, which have been the central aspect of the recovery, has been the stock market. In the second quarter, equities surpassed real estate as the biggest source of households’ wealth for the first time since the dot-com boom late in the last century, according to Fed data parsed by Steve Blitz, TS Lombard’s chief US economist. That’s a reversal from the last decade during the housing bubble and during the 1970s, ’80s, and ’90s, when the notion that home prices only went up became seared into America’s consciousness.

27 Sep 2018 - Financial Times

How social media exposed the fractures in Brazilian democracy

Increased support in the polls for Mr Haddad would “exacerbate market jitters, especially because the PT’s current economic platform denies the need for reform”, said research group TS Lombard in a note.

26 Sep 2018 - The Spectator

How China sees the trade war

Beijing will seek friends in defence of globalisation and the other mantras Xi likes to unroll, says Jonathan Fenby.

26 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

An Economic Cold War Looms Between the U.S. and China

Yet over time, China could overcome those disadvantages. It "has all the necessary prerequisites to make an Asian-based trading bloc work without the U.S.: a large domestic market, political support for open markets and manufacturing expertise," writes Larry Brainard of TS Lombard, an investment advisory. China already does more trade in manufactured and intermediate goods with the European Union than the U.S., and twice as much with the rest of Asia, he notes.

25 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Brexit and big global market risks

Lawrence Brainard of TS Lombard breaks down the global markets.

25 Sep 2018 - The Street

Fed Watchers See 'Light at End of Tunnel' After Rate Hike This Week

"It's closing in on a level of policy rates that are reflective of current economic activity," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecaster TS Lombard.

24 Sep 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

TS Lombard Sees China Replacing U.S. as Leading Trade Power

Larry Brainard, chief emerging-markets economist at TS Lombard, and Tony Crescenzi, market strategist and portfolio manager at Pimco, discusses the outlook for emerging markets and China's growing force as a trading power.

24 Sep 2018 - Barrons

Why Markets Should Expect a Long, Ugly U.S.-China Trade War

The U.S.-China economic conflict will be long and ugly “with little chance of a deal anytime soon,” TS Lombard economists Larry Brainard and Charles Dumas write in a note to clients. While China was prepared in late May for talks on trade, that has changed given the events of the subsequent months.

23 Sep 2018 - Financial Times

Dollar’s fortunes rest on the US Federal Reserve’s tone

“The new horizon for Italy’s political parties is May 2019 and the European Parliament elections,” said Davide Oneglia, an economist at TS Lombard. “Expect limited stimulus [in the budget] and high volatility as Lega and M5S go back to full electoral campaign mode.”

23 Sep 2018 - Zerohedge

Bank Of America Calls It: "The Peak In Home Sales Has Been Reached; Housing No Longer A Tailwind"

According to TS Lombard, the current period is now only the third time in US history - after 1968 and 1999 - in which equities have made up a larger percentage of net worth than real estate. While this may be good news for holders of stocks, it may not last: as TS Lombard observes, sharp bear markets followed shortly after 1968 and even sooner after 1999. And with housing peaking - if BofA is correct - share prices remain the only driver behind continued economic growth, prompting TSL to conclude that "the US economy can not afford a bear market."

20 Sep 2018 - Financial Times

Rivals seek to profit from US-China trade war

The long-term impact of the tariffs is still far from settled. Jon Harrison, an economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, notes that when the EU and US imposed penalties on Chinese exports of solar panels in 2012, Chinese companies swiftly moved production to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Similar relocation this time round could therefore benefit south-east Asian economies.

20 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Household Net Worth Neared $107 Trillion in Second Quarter

"Households have a lot of net worth," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, adding however that "hasn’t generated an increase in leveraged spending" compared with earlier periods in which net worth was rising sharply.

20 Sep 2018 - The Street

Trump's Trade War May Test Investors More Than China's Economy

TS Lombard, an economic forecaster, says China is "feeling aggrieved" over the Trump administration's demands, since the assault represents a threat to the ruling Communist Party's power. "As a result, Beijing has also shifted to a harder line and is likely to shun new talks, blaming the U.S. for a lack of sincerity to engage in negotiations," according to a report this week from the London-based firm.

18 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Why timing is essential when it comes to emerging markets

Brazil is another EM to keep an eye on. The country is running a fiscal deficit — although mostly domestically funded — that is twice the size of Argentina's; it has now run five consecutive primary deficits. With growth in Brazil having stalled in the run-up to October's elections, TS Lombard analysts Elisabeth Johnson and Larry Brainard have sounded the alarm. "Unless the new administration moves quickly to pass a credible fiscal programme, Brazil runs the risk of following down the same path as Argentina and Turkey," they said.

18 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Brazilian stocks could get more volatile as an 'unpredictable' election approaches

"We still don't know what the outcome will be," said Cristobal Arias, Latin America economist at TS Lombard. "But regardless of who wins, the country faces major economic problems." Economic reforms are needed for Brazil to move forward.

16 Sep 2018 - Australian Financial Review

Elections threaten Wall Street's teflon Trump trade

TS Lombard chief US economist Steve Blitz believes the Democrats are "likely to eke out a majority" in the House of Representatives. "Whenever US presidents lose Congress, their focus shifts to global affairs, where the constitution gives them much more latitude to take the initiative," Mr Blitz said. "Trump will do the same."

13 Sep 2018 - The Street

U.S. Inflation Slows in August Even as Workers' Wages Accelerate

"One month is not a trend, but it plays to the Fed's view that the runup in inflation in the earlier part of this year is going to reverse itself," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at the forecasting firm TS Lombard. 

13 Sep 2018 - The Telegraph

Future of Europe: Can the EU save a lost generation left fighting for its life in an economic maelstrom?

One advocate of extreme measures is Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard and author of Populism and Economics. Mr Dumas believes that many nations, particularly Italy, joined the single currency far too soon. This undermined their competitiveness and pressed home the advantage of strong players such as Germany. As a result, Germany has effectively operated under a much lower exchange rate than it otherwise would have. 

13 Sep 2018 - Evening Standard

Why Trump will be sorry if China lets its currency sink

TS Lombard economist Charles Dumas has an enviable track record. This makes it rather upsetting when his latest prediction is definitely not for the faint-hearted.

12 Sep 2018 - FT Alphaville

The EM rout is not made in America

Displacing the US, China has become the main export destination for many emerging market countries — Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia and the Philippines. The relationship has become so pronounced that China's import growth correlates closely with the export growth for many emerging economies. While this does not imply causation, TS Lombard points out that it illustrates just how synchronised global trade has become with Asia's biggest buyer.

12 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Financial crisis made banks less risk taking, chief economist

But the culture on Wall Street is always going to be same, says Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard.

12 Sep 2018 - The Telegraph

Jean-Claude Juncker calls on EU to champion euro as a global currency

For the euro to take on the greenback as a more powerful global force, there would have to be considerable efforts to address imbalances generated by member states' public debt and Germany's large surplus, according to Charles Dumas of T S Lombard.  "Something is going to have to be done about the eurozone surplus and the imbalances within Europe that create that surplus. They are pursuing an Italian exchange rate in an economy in which Italy is a very small proportion of the total," he said.

12 Sep 2018 - CNBC

The biggest red flag for the next recession? Corporate debt to cash ratios, top economist says

Ten years on from the crash of Lehman Brothers that heralded the Great Recession, market watchers are looking for clues as to where the root of the next crisis might lie. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, sees a giant red flag in corporations' debt versus their means to pay that debt off. "The real biggest problem lies, if I'm looking at the U.S., I look at debt-to-cash ratios, and I take out the top ten companies," Blitz told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe on Wednesday, noting his exclusion of highly capitalized companies like major tech and pharmaceutical firms who are well-stocked to service their debts. "Debt to cash is very very high, but debt equity is very very low. What that tells me is corporations are borrowing against their net worth, as opposed to borrowing against cash flow and income, which in effect is the same thing households were doing in 2004, 2005 and 2006."

11 Sep 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The chart of the day

Since the peak in late 2017, price-to-earnings ratios have tended to decline - a trend that, according to TS Lombard analysts, is likely to be attributed to US government bond yields, which are likely to rise significantly at the short end, with some delay have started.

11 Sep 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

The Big Unknown for EM

The trade stand-off remains the biggest challenge for emerging markets, says Jon Harrison, managing director of EM at TS Lombard. He told Daybreak Europe’s Nejra Cehic and Markus Karlsson why he thinks that India is a relative safe haven.

08 Sep 2018 - MarketWatch

The new fear for stock investors is an emerging-market meltdown

Jon Harrison, managing director of macro strategy at TS Lombard wrote that he had a “strong negative view” on emerging markets, citing the contagion risks of “crisis upon crisis.”

08 Sep 2018 - The Telegraph

Emerging markets currency crisis: how contagious is the situation in Argentina?

“If we had a global environment that was very pro-risk, emerging markets were doing well, and there was ample global liquidity, then investors may be able to forgive Argentina and allow it time to make the required fiscal adjustment,” says Jon Harrison, managing director, macro strategy, at TS Lombard. “That was the case over the past few years but this year that has changed.”

07 Sep 2018 - The Street

U.S. Adds 201,000 Jobs in August, and Workers' Wages Accelerate

"The economy's not slowing down," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard. "It certainly keeps consumption strong in the third quarter and into the fourth." 

07 Sep 2018 - The Street

Stocks Sink as Trump May Slap China With $267 Billion More in Tariffs

"The economy's not slowing down," said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard. "It certainly keeps consumption strong in the third quarter and into the fourth." The report is likely to buttress the Federal Reserve's case for increasing interest rates by a quarter point later this month, and again in December, to prevent a surge in inflation, Blitz said.

06 Sep 2018 - CNBC

China's potential weapons against US tariffs could backfire on its growth — here's why

One option, some economists say, is a move by China's central bank to further devalue its currency, making its exports cheaper and more attractive and thereby offsetting the costs of the tariffs. The yuan has depreciated around 8 percent against the dollar since April, and economists Bo Zhuang and Rory Green of TS Lombard believe that the 25 percent levies placed on the bulk of Chinese goods "would damage China's trade enough to provoke over the next six months or so a further 15 percent depreciation."

06 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Brazilian markets could quickly spiral into crisis mode amid 'devilish' election choice

"The evident economic difficulties that have hit Turkey and Argentina this year have so far been viewed by markets as largely confined to those two countries — with limited spill-over potential to other emerging markets," Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging-market macro strategy at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email. "What has changed is Brazil. The likelihood of a market friendly outcome in the Brazilian election first-round has receded (and that) has the potential to shock markets out of their complacency," he added.

06 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Nasdaq falls for a third day as Amazon, Apple and chip stocks get hit

President Donald Trump's "trade tactics are more likely to slow the economy, certainly in the near term, because of damage done to capital spending plans," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. "The seemingly random aspect of his tactics, including the uncertainty of how long tariffs will be in place and their direct impact, will cause firms to pause before starting up capital projects – just when investment spending looked set to surge, aided by Trump's tax cuts."

06 Sep 2018 - Business Insider

A trusty recession signal is telling the Fed 'we're about where we need to be' on interest rates

"Talk of the flatter yield curve presaging recession continues to run rampant among the chattering classes,” Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a research note. And it’s not just the more closely-watched yield gaps, like the spread between 10- and two-year notes. What counts is not whether the curve is flat but whether it’s negative, and the negative curve that counts most is the spread between the yield on two-year Treasury notes and the federal funds rate, Blitz writes. "We have long made the point that the shape of the curve is not a talisman. It works because when short-term money earns more than lending, the flow of loanable funds moves away from credit."

05 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Global Stocks Fall Amid Trade Uncertainty

“If the administration goes ahead with the threats that it’s made … then we can see really major risks for risk assets like the stock market over the balance of the year,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. More tariffs on China could trigger further falls in the Chinese currency and add to pressure on emerging markets while pushing up the dollar, he said.

05 Sep 2018 - Barrons

Global Stocks Are Getting Hammered Amid Trade Fears

“If the administration goes ahead with the threats that it’s made...then we can see really major risks for risk assets like the stock market over the balance of the year,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. More tariffs on China could trigger further falls in the Chinese currency and add to pressure on emerging markets while pushing up the dollar, he said.

05 Sep 2018 - Barrons

How the Next Global Economic Crisis Could Start

Developing countries are facing a perfect storm, according to Larry Brainard, TS Lombard's chief EM economist. In the research firm's September message to clients, he warned would-be bargain hunters that emerging markets have not neared a bottom.  While problems in Turkey and Argentina haven't been "systemic," Brainard wrote that a combination with several other crises now brewing could lead to a broader problem.

Jon Harrison, managing director of EM macro strategy at TS Lombard, wrote in a separate note that India and Mexico stand out as relative safe havens among developing countries. The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) is down 4% so far this year, half as much as the broader EM index, while the iShares Mexico ETF (EWW) has inched up 0.44%.

05 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Emerging markets rout deepens amid fears over Argentina and Turkey

"For several months our view has been that it is the cumulative impact that matters when assessing the effect on EM economies and markets of tighter global liquidity conditions, the escalating trade conflict between the US and China, and crises in Argentina and Turkey," Jon Harrison, managing director of emerging-market macro strategy at TS Lombard, said in a note Wednesday. "These drivers are likely to intensify in the coming months."

05 Sep 2018 - Axios

White House claims it solved the wage growth puzzle

"While you can say the motivation [for the measurement adjustment] was political, what comes out at the other end is a legitimate issues regarding mis-measurements," said Steve Blitz, an economist at TS Lombarda research firm.

03 Sep 2018 - CNBC

Argentina investment depends on government fiscal plan: Expert

Jon Harrison, managing director, EM at TS Lombard, discusses investment in Argentina and other emerging markets.

03 Sep 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Italian Politics Keep Global Investors on Edge

The stakes are high: Italy is the eurozone’s biggest government borrower. While foreigners and households sold Italian debt this summer, Italian banks were buying it at the fastest pace since the eurozone debt crisis. That means any losses in Italian bonds puts more pressure on the banks’ already modest capital ratios, driving them to buy even more debt, according to research firm TS Lombard.

31 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Here’s why emerging-markets turmoil will continue to keep traders on their toes

Turkey’s euro-denominated borrowings means it’s collapse could portend trouble for EU members with financial linkages to Ankara. European banks like Spanish BBVA are on the hook via Turkish subsidiaries. If they’re forced to write off their loans to Turkish firms, then their capital buffers could take a sharp hit, according to analysts from TS Lombard.

30 Aug 2018 - Barrons

Argentine Peso Collapse Doesn’t Harm View on Emerging Markets

The odds of a recession in Argentina later this year are rising while Turkey is headed for an inevitable “substantial deterioration” in its creditworthiness and the country's economy is set for a hard landing, according to a note from Jon Harrison, part of the emerging-markets team at TS Lombard.

29 Aug 2018 - The Telegraph

G20 trade falls for first time since 2016 as tensions hit confidence

This has a wider impact on global trade which is hitting the eurozone particularly hard, according to economist Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “Growing protectionism is taking a toll on global demand. The eurozone remains one of the regions most vulnerable to trade wars,” she said. “President Trump’s tariffs have been largely directed towards China so far. But the eurozone’s supply chain linkages with China and the rest of the world are weighing on its exports.”

27 Aug 2018 - Middle East Eye

ANALYSIS: The uncertainty around Aramco deal is a sign of Saudi dysfunction

“They proposed an IPO at the worst possible time to sell an oil company, and then called it off at quite a good time to sell an oil company,” said Marcus Chenevix, analyst for EMEA and global political research at financial firm TS Lombard in London. “Nothing more clearly illustrates the way that this project was never a normal IPO.”

27 Aug 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Fear of a currency war

For Charles Dumas, economist at the research house TS Lombard, an escalation of the trade to currency war would be a "probable scenario". The US could then continue to escalate against China with tariffs - but would only allow the dollar to appreciate further. Investors would have to adjust to turbulence: A stronger dollar would weigh on stocks and probably on bonds.

24 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Powell says Fed needs to nix old-time thinking in an age of economic uncertainty

“Powell is not worrying about whether inflation is coming or not coming or whether unemployment is too high or too low,” said chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz at TS Lombard. “He’s worries about whether money is too cheap or too expensive” for borrowers on Wall Street and Main Street.

24 Aug 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Fed must reconsider balance sheet reduction

Steven Blitz, US economist at the research house TS Lombard, also expects an adjustment of the program. Things went well for him until President Donald Trump implemented his fiscal policy and "exploded" the supply of government bonds due to heightened debt. Thus, "the abundance of safe papers became an abundance". According to Blitz, this can be seen by the difference between the interest that can be achieved in the market with the lending of securities and the simultaneous repurchase guarantee (repo rate) and the interest on the surplus reserves that are parked at the Fed (IOER). Since the Fed balance sheet has decreased, the difference is positive.

23 Aug 2018 - CNBC

US-China 'tit for tat' will continue for the foreseeable future

Both parties convinced themselves they will not lose out too much in this trade fight, says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

23 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Beijing retaliates as new US tariffs kick in on $16 billion of Chinese goods

Markets should expect bilateral tit-for-tat trade actions to continue for the foreseeable future as both the U.S. and China have managed to convince themselves that they wouldn't "lose out in this trade war too much," said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at investment research firm, TS Lombard. Beijing will allow the Chinese yuan to "passively devalue" in order to cope with the impact of the U.S. tariffs although authorities will likely blame any decline in the currency on the markets, Zhuang said. "One way or the other, they have to do something. Otherwise the Chinese economy is going to tumble," Zhuang added.

22 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

US and Europe cross economic turning point

Economists at TS Lombard note that the US economy “has yet to find reason for output to push above its 2014 highs, at least in the goods sector, and housing is beginning to soften”, and add that “Trump’s trade tactics should slow rather than accelerate activity, but they have yet to show through meaningfully in the macro data”.

22 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

New Russian Sanctions to Have 'Zero Economic Effect,' Granville Says

Christopher Granville, director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the potential economic impact of new U.S. sanctions being imposed against Russia. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

21 Aug 2018 - Het Financieele Dagblad

China and America talk further, but does it also yield something?

During a recent dinner with foreign diplomats, Chinese President Xi Jinping suggested that China would win the US trade war because it is simply a one-party state. "Giving up would undermine the power structure and long-term focus of leadership," says Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard. His conclusion: 'China will persevere.'

21 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg

Turkish Banks' European Deposits Get Regulators' Scrutiny

“The risk is probably not systemic for the European banking system in itself,” said Jon Harrison, an analyst at TS Lombard in London. “The bar could be lower for someone in Germany to take their money out of a Turkish bank and deposit in a German bank, than for someone in Turkey to remove their funds from Turkish banks -– raising the risk of a bank run.” Though that point hasn’t come yet, that could be a way the situation could deteriorate, he said.

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Countries under economic attack from the US are bound to adapt

This type of economic sanctions, using the power of U.S. treasury in global finance to try to throttle other economies is a powerful card to play, but with diminishing effects, says Christopher Granville, managing director, global political research at TS Lombard.

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Greece ends nearly 10 years of bailouts — this is what it means

However, some analysts argue that this is more a "symbolic" moment and there is plenty yet to do to improve the Greek economy. "Both the EU and the Greeks will try to put a positive spin on the end of the bailout, but there is little to celebrate," Constantine Fraser, European analyst at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC via email.

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Experts are predicting a recession for Turkey next year. Here's what you need to know

It's "common sense" to assume the crisis will calm, said Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard in London. "If you look at Erdogan's track record, he does tend to back down in the end, although it takes time," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Monday. But even the resolution of political tensions with the U.S. wouldn't solve Turkey's problem on its own from an investor point of view, "though of course it would help on the margin," Granville added. "Some political resolution is likely but that's not very helpful advice for investors," he said. "Because that takes a long time, which Turkish markets don't have."

20 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Germany is unlikely to give a financial lifeline to Turkey, analysts say

Turkey has recovered from previous bouts of volatility brought on by political and economic instability and analysts tend to think it can do so again, but they noted that resolving its dispute with the U.S. was crucial. Christopher Granville, managing director global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Monday that "there's a huge amount at stake for Turkey in its basic alignment with the U.S. and these things are not dissolvable overnight." Still, he noted that even solving the dispute with the U.S. quickly would not "solve the Turkish problem from investors' point of view."

20 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Trump May Create Problem for Powell, TS Lombard's Blitz Says

President Donald Trump said he expected Jerome Powell to be a cheap-money Fed chairman and lamented to Republican donors at a fundraiser his nominee instead had raised interest rates, according to three people present. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: Bloomberg)

17 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Italian government's response to Genoa bridge collapse

It might end up, in a long run, undermining the confidence of investors in Italian institutions, says Davide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard.

17 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Italy blame game over bridge collapse will hurt investor sentiment for a long time, economist says

"The responsibilities still have to be determined by the judiciary, (but) the most striking thing of this story is mostly the initial reaction of the government after the disaster," Davide Oneglia, economist at TS Lombard, said. "The fact they have immediately taken Atlantia and investor as a scapegoat, or they are trying to bring in the European Commission, which is their usual target, might end up in the long run undermining the confidence of investors on Italian institutions," Oneglia told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "If this proceeds, it has long lasting effects on investor sentiment," he said.

16 Aug 2018 - Citywire

Turkey tips emerging markets into bear territory

'Limited direct contagion from Turkey is little comfort,' said Jon Harrison, strategist at TS Lombard. 'The collapse of Turkish markets raises investors' fears even when there are few direct linkages, and could certainly be the one crisis too many that prompts some to take a decision to scale back exposure — coming at a time when broad-based emerging markets risk-off is already taking shape.'

16 Aug 2018 - The Telegraph

Trade conflict could trigger currency war, economists fear

The tariffs will open up currencies as a second front in the conflict between the world’s biggest economies, risking a 15pc depreciation in the Chinese Yuan, according to an analysis from TS Lombard. Bo Zhuang, of TS Lombard, said: “A decision by Trump to double down on his tariff tactics would have adverse effects on inflation and global markets. This possibility is the main reason why we maintain a strong negative call on the environment for global risk.”

16 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

What are the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s trade wars?

Jon Harrison, an economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said trade worries, added to the effects of the strong dollar and rising US interest rates, were fuelling a sell-off in emerging market debt.

15 Aug 2018 - Reuters

Turkey tantrum? Investors fret over contagion from lira plunge

“Spanish lenders are most vulnerable to the worsening currency crisis, followed by French and Italian banks,” noted Shweta Singh at TS Lombard. “With Europe’s large exposure to Turkey through banking sector flows, investors are increasingly worried about the fallout as the crisis unfolds.”

15 Aug 2018 - The New York Times

Why Turkey’s Crisis Feels Familiar for Emerging Markets: It’s the Debt

Shweta Singh, an analyst at TS Lombard, a London research house, points out that the European banks with the most significant exposure to Turkey — BBVA, BNP Paribas and UniCredit — are among the weakest in the eurozone in terms of their equity cushions.

15 Aug 2018 - The Street

China Set to 'Weaponize' Yuan to Fight Trump's Trade War: Report

According to a new report, China now appears willing to undertake a major currency devaluation - similar to the policy changes that roiled global markets in late 2015 and early 2016. The move by the Chinese government would help to offset the effect of the Trump administration's enacted or threatened tariffs on some $250 billion of imports from the country, writes the economic forecaster TS Lombard.

14 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Turkey is investigating hundreds of social media accounts bad-mouthing the lira

"Now that economics is political, it is no surprise that they are seeking clamp down on inconvenient discussion," Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC of the government's campaign. The move, he said, is indicative of the state's attempt to control all political discussion online.

There is a more significant message here though, Chenevix added. "In a currency crisis it is in the end ordinary people who do the heavy lifting. A serious run on a currency is not driven by foreign speculators but by ordinary people going to their local FX bureau and buying some dollars. The government knows this, and is trying very hard to stop it."

14 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Contagion from Turkish currency collapse to European banks is ‘overblown'

“If BBVA is forced to deleverage, inflicting wider damage on the Spanish economy and the banking system, the repercussions could be quite severe due to the complex financial linkages among European banks,” said Shweta Singh and Davide Oneglia, economists at TS Lombard, in a Monday note.

12 Aug 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Optimism on European Growth Reverses as Headwinds Mount

"The euro growth cycle is in a phase when it needs more (capital expenditures)," said Shweta Singh, a managing director at economics consultancy TS Lombard. "That's why the impact of the trade wars on sentiment is so worrying."

08 Aug 2018 - The Telegraph

Dispute between Canada and Saudi Arabia escalates amid asset sell off

Marcus Chenevix of TS Lombard said: “It is a damaging and stupid dispute, it is unclear why they [Saudi] couldn’t have taken more private action.” The Kingdom could quit its arms deals, worth half a billion dollars each year for Canada, as a means of further escalation, according to Mr Chenevix. Based on the track record of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the 32-year-old de facto ruler of the Kingdom, the row is unlikely to be swiftly resolved. “MBS has not finished any dispute that he has started,” Mr Chenevix added.

07 Aug 2018 - South China Morning Post

Will the trade war force China to fold? The US’ confidence may be misguided

Investment research firm TS Lombard feels China is holding a strong set of cards, publishing “Trade War: Why China Won’t Surrender” on August 2. TS Lombard’s China Watch team feels that “the impact of Trump’s trade war on [China’s economic] growth will be manageable”, with Beijing having “rolled out a series of limited measures to sustain domestic growth” and with its currency policy aimed partly at “offsetting the impact of US tariffs on [Chinese] exporters”. Indeed, If Trump imposes additional tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from China, then “further yuan depreciation is likely”, TS Lombard feels.

07 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg

Turkey’s Cratering Markets Stoke Speculation Over Extreme Measures

“It’s going to be a shock of one type or another: either a policy shock or a macro shock or some combination of the two,” said Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard in London. “But the way to sugar that pill,” he said, would be a “political accommodation with the West. That would make the pain much less."

07 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Iranian government does not have a room to go to the negotiating table

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. sanctions on Iran and what it means for the future of Iranian oil.

07 Aug 2018 - CNBC

20% interest rates, crashing capital markets: Trump's sanctions causing turmoil in Turkey

"This is a shot across the bow," said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at TS Lombard. "Now, I think the U.S. will give them time to respond. It's not like the U.S. sees this as a pressing political matter, it just can't seem to be backing down to these hostage tactics."

07 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Turkey Faces a Policy or Economic Shock, Says Granville

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses Turkey's economic issues related to U.S. sanctions. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." 

07 Aug 2018 - The Weekly Standard

Meet the Winners of the Trade War

But not everybody’s suffering. In a recent research note, economists from market-research firm TS Lombard observed that “global trading firms will easily skirt China’s soybean tariffs and leave U.S. growers the primary losers” and that “the big winners will be Brazilian farmers and the big grain companies.” That’s because China consumes 60 percent of the soybeans produced around the world. The country still has a strong need for soybeans, which are crushed to feed its huge livestock industry. With the tariffs rendering U.S. soybean prices suddenly uncompetitive, China is turning elsewhere—especially to Brazil.

06 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Beijing is more worried about domestic issues than its trade war with Washington, research firm says

The U.S.-China trade war is not Beijing's top priority, investment research firm TS Lombard said. Rather, China is likely focused on more domestic concerns, such as stabilizing its economy and maintaining the power structure, said Jonathan Fenby, the firm's China research chairman. TS Lombard sees growth in China coming in at a rate of 6.3 percent in the second half of the year, for an average full-year growth of 6.5 percent.

03 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

China’s controversies create cracks in Xi’s façade

“There isn’t any organised movement against Xi or any real threat for him, in my view” says Bo Zhuang, chief China economist for TS Lombard. In private, however, more Chinese officials and intellectuals are expressing doubts about his handling of relations with the US. Mr Zhuang says that among the Chinese bureaucracy’s rank and file, “more people are now questioning whether it was right for Xi to go against the US so openly”. 

03 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

US sanctions proposals shrugged off in Russia

Christopher Granville, managing director at TS Lombard, an investment research firm, said although the new measures came close to “a worst possible list” for Russia, “the Treasury has already concluded that they don’t want to sanction sovereign debt”. “Investors have made some adjustments since the turmoil in Helsinki, so a large amount of worry is already priced in at this stage,” said Mr Granville. “A further negative correction would only follow if there is evidence that there is unanimous momentum to pass this bill, like we saw with CAATSA.”

03 Aug 2018 - CNBC

A summer stock sell-off is a ‘risk too big to ignore,’ researchers warn

Economic fundamentals have greatly improved since quantitative easing was deployed following the financial crisis. But with fiscal conditions tightening, dollar rates climbing, the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and the European Central Bank ready to taper its asset purchases, "withdrawal symptoms will be inevitable," wrote Andrea Cicione, managing director of macro strategy at TS Lombard. Trade uncertainty will only compound this, creating the uncertainty that investors don't like.

03 Aug 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg Markets: Steve Blitz on July Jobs Report (Audio)

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, on July jobs report. He speaks on Bloomberg Markets with Pimm Fox and Bob Ivry.

03 Aug 2018 - MarketWatch

Who’s cashing in on roaring economy? By the size of paychecks, not most workers

“What has yet to come around consistently is wage growth,” noted chief U.S. economist Steve Blitz of TS Lombard. “It has slowed of late, even as hiring has picked up.”

03 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

The Benalla affair has brought Emmanuel Macron to earth

"His promise of a more moral and open system of governing is looking shaky", says Jonathan Fenby.

03 Aug 2018 - Reuters

FOREX-Chinese central bank move sends yuan surging, hits dollar across the board

“What we have seen is quite a big depreciation [in the yuan] so I think, as we’ve seen in the past, when there are big moves the Chinese authorities are very anxious to ensure the market doesn’t see the renminbi as a one-way bet,” said Jon Harrison, head of emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard.

02 Aug 2018 - CNBC

Trump’s Turkey sanctions are all about the midterms — but will end up helping Russia

"Normally, Turkey might be able to shrug off this kind of story; however, right now the Turkish economy is already in the terminal stages of a descent into crisis," said Marcus Chenevix, Middle East analyst at TS Lombard. "To say the least, things are fragile right now."

02 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Uncertainties abound as emerging markets creep back into favour

The outlook for trade in EMs does not look as positive as it once did. Jon Harrison at TS Lombard, a research group, has noticed a recent reversal in the rising share of global trade accounted for by EM countries. “While there was a small uptick in the EM share in May, this did not reverse the sharper decline in the preceding two months,” Mr Harrison said. “EM economies are no longer taking an ever greater share of world trade.”

02 Aug 2018 - BBC

A political spat between Turkey and the US has led to sanctions on two Turkish ministers.

A political spat between Turkey and the US has led to sanctions on two Turkish ministers. Marcus Chenevix, Middle East analyst at TS Lombard, explains the effect the row is having on Turkey's currency. 

02 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Trump zeroes in on China after trade truce with Europe

“Trump is unpredictable in a way,” said Bo Zhuang from TS Lombard, a consultancy. “But he’s also predictable. He’s doing everything he promised Americans he would do during the campaign.”

01 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Stocks are priced for perfection but are vulnerable to shocks

TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz pointed out that there is a stark divergence between US after-tax profits, which have evidently risen this year, and pre-tax profits, which are falling.

01 Aug 2018 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Wait and FOMC

At the margin, it is fair to say that a fourth rate rise this year grew a little more likely, but that is about it. To support this notion, growth is now described as "strong" rather than solid. As ever, every choice of word in an FOMC communique must be examined minutely, and Steven Blitz of TS Lombard draws the following conclusion: "If you upgrade your description of the economy six weeks after having raised the funds rate 25 basis points and still call policy rates “accommodative”, there is no place else to go but to raise rates another 25 in September and again in December, assuming the economy is still rolling along. One could ask why the Fed didn’t just raise rates in August, based on stronger growth and inflation assessments. The answer is simply habit. Shifting to a faster calendar pace would unsettle markets, especially after a meeting without a press conference." 

31 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Dear Prudence

TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz makes clear, there is a stark divergence between after-tax profits, which are rising, and pre-tax profits, which are falling. Generally, net investment by businesses, which stimulates the economy, is led by profits. But it is unclear as yet what impact the rise in post-tax profits will have:

31 Jul 2018 - The Street

Fed Poised to Keep Rates on Hold, Awaiting Signs on Trump Economy

Economists at forecasting firm TS Lombard argue that a key driver of growth will be spending by businesses on new equipment, which leads to higher employee productivity and output. And so far, there are few signs that companies are rushing to invest their tax savings in new equipment. TS Lombard analyzed railcar loadings of cargo that typically rises and falls with the economic cycle - things like chemicals, metal, nonmetallic and forest products. Such loadings have narrowed to prior-year levels. "We suspect that no great expenditure boost is in the offing," the economists wrote.

31 Jul 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Oil Extends Tuesday Drop on Increase in US Inventories

TS Lombard senior economist Konstantinos Venetis said Chinese oil purchases are a big question for markets as it's a significant importer of U.S. crude. Trade friction between the two countries remain high, with not even an agreement yet in place for officials from both to meet.

27 Jul 2018 - CNBC

India stocks hit record highs as experts consider their 'safe haven' potential

It is thanks to a combination of factors that India is a "relative safe haven for equity investors," according to Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets macro strategy at research firm TS Lombard. "India is a relatively closed economy," he explained to CNBC, adding that the country was "less involved in regional supply chains than some of the more high-tech Asian economies." The World Bank puts India's export figure for 2017 at 18.9 percent, meaning that it is more cushioned from fluctuations in international trade flows than, say, China, South Korea and Vietnam.

26 Jul 2018 - CNBC

ECB keeps rates unchanged with its massive stimulus program set to end this year

Analysts at research provider TS Lombard said the ECB will "deliberately talk down the prospect of rate hikes until QE (quantitative easing) is well out of the way." "And looking that far out (mid 2019), Europe's main central bank becomes hostage to wider global developments well beyond its control," analysts said in a note Thursday, citing higher rates in the United States and trade wars as two potential examples. "The ECB might get round to raising rates in 2019, but only if this global cycle keeps defying the gloomy consensus," they added.

25 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Executive pay rows show that governance matters

As Charles Dumas, author of a compelling new book on the economics of populism argues, it is people’s perception of their relative position rather than actual financial loss that matters — not least perceptions of inequitable sharing of the pain in the 2007-8 financial crisis, where bankers continued to draw bonuses while in receipt of bailout money from the taxpayer.

23 Jul 2018 - CNBC Squawk Box

Market not predicting the end of the cycle just yet, says expert

Jon Harrison, managing director for EM macro strategy at TS Lombard, speaks about trends in markets.

22 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

China forecast to hit ‘peak housing’ and suffer decline in sales

Housing sales in China totalled 1.4bn square metres in 2017, an annual increase of 5 per cent. But subsidies accounted for a quarter of housing purchases last year, estimates Bo Zhuang, China economist at TS Lombard in Beijing, implying that without this support sales would already be in decline. 

19 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Fed’s Powell facing first test from the bond market

“He understands how to read markets,” said Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard. “He is trying to push interest rates to a level that he believes accurately reflects growth in the economy. As the yield curve flattens the market is telling you that you are reaching the high-water mark.”

19 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg

Commodity Contagion Spreads as Raw Material Crash Threatens Calm

“The potential damage to the global economy extends beyond trade,” Jon Harrison at TS Lombard said in an emailed note. “Uncertainty may already be discouraging investment and emerging-market assets will react to U.S. threats of further escalation even if the threatened actions are not ultimately implemented.”

18 Jul 2018 - CNBC

Fed Chair Powell right about trade and policy, economist says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress.

17 Jul 2018 - Reuters

Italy shock shows sovereign CDS still active - flaws and all

“(The 2014 ISDA definitions) took care of lots of questions about sovereign CDS... in terms of restructuring and what happens in case of a redenomination,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at financial research firm TS Lombard.

17 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg Podcast

Surveillance: What Russia Does is Bluff

Chris Granville, TS Lombard Managing Director of EMEA & Global Political Research, talks about the importance of smaller countries such as Finland in Brexit negotiations with the European Union.

16 Jul 2018 - CNBC Street Signs

Syria likely to be high on Trump and Putin's agenda: TS Lombard

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the looming Trump-Putin bilateral.

16 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Trade war fears blunt growth in global ETF industry

“Suddenly the world is facing the most serious outbreak of protectionism since the 1930s,” said Dario Perkins, a managing director at TS Lombard, the London-based economic consultancy. “Protectionism didn’t cause the Great Depression but it certainly prolonged it.”

16 Jul 2018 - CNBC

The bond market's recession signal may be wrong this time

Economists at TS Lombard think the recession prognosticators actually are watching the wrong yield curve. They say that rather than looking at the spread between 2s and 10s, the more meaningful pair is the three-month bill's spot price and its 18-month forward, or the market-implied price. That gap "is rising, suggesting a recession is not imminent," the firm said in a note. The reason TS Lombard prefers that spread as a gauge is that it reflects monetary policy "and therefore inverts when the market anticipates an easier monetary stance in response to the likelihood or onset of recession." As things stand, the Fed is indicating that it will continue to raise rates, or tighten policy, something it would not do if it was anticipating a substantial slowdown in growth.

16 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Fed Likely to React to Inflation in December, TS Lombard Says

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, talks about the nation's economy, Federal Reserve policy, and Treasury yield curve. He speaks with Ramy Inocencio and Paul Allen on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia."

15 Jul 2018 - CNBC

How the Trump-Putin meeting could turn the tables on Ukraine — and US credibility

Christopher Granville, Russia expert and managing director at TS Lombard, doesn’t see any sea-changes ahead for U.S. policy in the area. “I don’t believe that Trump will actually ‘do’ anything on Ukraine,” he told CNBC. “At most, he may say that it’s a European problem.” Granville added that the most important topic for the president on Monday will likely be Syria, especially as it pertains to conflict between Israel and Iran.

14 Jul 2018 - CNBC

A look at the issues at stake ahead of Trump and Putin's summit

As hard as Putin may try for sanctions relief, removing them is no longer in Trump's power since their codification into law under CAATSA, said Christopher Granville, Russia expert and director at TS Lombard. "However, Trump does have the power not to impose any new ones," Granville noted. The American president has long been suspected of wanting to lift the sanctions, citing the need for improved relations with Moscow, and has deliberately missed previous congressional deadlines to impose them. "That is certainly valuable in itself for the Russian economy, since what causes damage is not so much particular sanctions measures in themselves, but lack of visibility of what new sanctions escalations might be on their way," Granville said.

11 Jul 2018 - Agence France-Press

The week Brexit got real: Britain turns pragmatic

“May seems to have emerged stronger — at least in the short term — from Davis and Johnson’s high profile resignations,” said Constantine Fraser, an analyst at TS Lombard, an economic research consultancy.

11 Jul 2018 - CNBC

More pain ahead for emerging markets as trade war gets hotter

“This really resulted from the escalation in trade tensions on multiple fronts,” said Jon Harrison, director of macro strategy at TS Lombard. “This is also taking place against a backdrop of tighter monetary policy as central banks raise rates.” “A lot of emerging markets have seen export growth in the past year, which helps their economies,” Harrison said. “But that is dependent on increases in global trade. If you see lower world trade, the big EM exporters will be hurt.”

11 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

These are the 3 biggest things to worry about this earnings season

Without the trade war, everything was in place for capital spending to rise and pull up real yields and wages, according to TS Lombard analysts Steven Blitz and Andrea Cicione. “But trade ‘war’ has arrived, mostly raising uncertainty that, in turn, stifles capital spending by business and households,” they wrote in a recent note.

11 Jul 2018 - The Street

Rising Gas Prices Threaten Consumers, Cutting Into Trump's Tax Cuts

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for the forecasting firm TS Lombard, says Trump's flurry of policy initiatives - with countervalent effects on the economy - could ultimately undermine businesses' willingness to invest in new plants or hire more workers. That's especially true since many of the president's moves could be reversed by Congress or his successor. When it comes to foreign and economic policy, Trump may be trying to tackle too much at once, Blitz says: Fight trade wars, cut taxes, rip up nuclear-disarmament agreements, shake up healthcare laws, rail against allies like Germany for not paying their fair share of defense spending. The list keeps growing. "As a business guy, what are you going to do?" Blitz said. "You're going to put your hands in your pocket and do nothing, until you understand what is the permanent path of all these policies."

07 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

No longer just ‘noise’: ongoing trade uncertainty saps investor confidence

“Like most investors, we were assuming Trump’s trade war was mostly ‘noise’. We thought the likeliest outcome was a series of skirmishes, full of inconsequential measures and symbolic victories, which wouldn’t ultimately undermine the macroeconomic outlook,” wrote Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard. “Now, as trade tensions escalate — perhaps even to the brink of a full scale trade war — the risks to markets are obviously increasing,” he said.

07 Jul 2018 - Xinhua

UK crashing out of EU with no deal "very unlikely" despite Brexit worries

"The outcome that looks so unlikely as to be negligible is the one that many, including business and financial markets, fear whereby Britain crashes out of the EU with no treaty," Christopher Granville of TS Lombard, a London-based investment research firm, told Xinhua on Friday. "This is the so-called No Deal outcome. That is a very unlikely outcome to happen, so unlikely as to be negligible," said Granville.

06 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Trade risks toppling US equities from their pedestal

Analysts at TS Lombard write: “Capex is likely to remain subdued as long as US companies are unsure about the global trade environment.’’ As analysts at TS Lombard note: “Credit investors tend to be more sensitive to cycle turns than equity investors because of the negative skew of their expected returns. The more credit spreads widen, the harder it will be for stocks to keep rising.’’

05 Jul 2018 - CNBC

Economist: Populism the result of policy failures over the last 25 years

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the rise of global populism.

05 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

Stronger euro nicks dollar as political tensions take a back seat to upbeat eurozone data

“The underlying fundamentals in the euro zone remain solid. The expansion is still in the relatively early stages, and has room to run. The most recent set of data and sentiment surveys suggests that the worst may be behind us,” said Shweta Singh, managing director of global macro, at TS Lombard “There is one big caveat, however: the risk of higher trade barriers, which is already weighing on export orders and manufacturing, is rising.”

05 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

FTSE 100 holds gains as pound rises on Carney’s rate-hike signal

“So what do trade wars mean for financial markets? Clearly they are negative for equities. Economic growth would suffer, both short and longer term,” said Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro research at TS Lombard, in an note. “If we are also facing ‘de-globalization’, then we are probably talking about a lower equilibrium profits share,” he said.

“We are not saying that a major trade war is now inevitable, or even that this is the likeliest outcome. But rather that the chance of a quick resolution—the working assumption of most investors in 2018 — is fading away,” said Perkins.

05 Jul 2018 - The Street

Here's the Decimation a Trump Trade War Could Bring to the Global Economy

Investors return to the markets Thursday ill-prepared for the bottom to drop out when $34 billion in tariffs on China goods kicks in on Friday. And that's unfortunate because there is likely to be pain felt sans a last-minute reprieve from team Trump. So with that, the quotes of the day come compliments of TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins. If this isn't enough reason to move to cash or gold, I don't know what is.

05 Jul 2018 - CNBC

Dow jumps 200 points ahead of US tariffs on China, tech rises

“As he ratchets up the trade conflict with China, President Trump’s protectionism will inevitably start to damage the global economy,” said Dario Perkins, managing director at TS Lombard. “Markets are understandably skittish and a protracted period of tension could both undermine the macro outlook and produce a much nastier endgame.”

04 Jul 2018 - The Banker

Can anything derail China's economic growth?

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist for research firm TS Lombard, believes China can afford concessions to the US with regard to protecting intellectual property, enlarging market access and reducing the US merchandise trade deficit, but will baulk at changing its industrial policy. “There is a technological arms race between China and the developed world that will last 10 or 20 years. China won't give up. It’s more likely China will double up or triple up on investment in technology,” said Mr Zhuang.

03 Jul 2018 - MarketWatch

Trump pushes U.S. closer to once-unthinkable trade war. Wall Street’s battered and it could get a lot worse

“It’s on the cusp of doing serious damage,” said chief economist Steve Blitz of TS Lombard.

03 Jul 2018 - Bloomberg

Xi Faces Hurdles Bashing American Brands in a Trump Trade War

Besides boycotts, Beijing could consider creating costly administrative bottlenecks for U.S. imports or impose punitive measures against U.S. companies operating in China, analysts at research firm TS Lombard wrote in a June 20 note.

01 Jul 2018 - Financial Times

Renminbi’s worst month ever sparks US-China currency war fears

Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, a research group, said that Beijing was probably allowing a tactical depreciation to send a signal to Washington but that a deep devaluation would be counterproductive for China. "Many market participants speculate... that China may have weaponised the renminbi, opting for a devaluation to offset the impact of US tariffs. We disagree, though policymakers are now considering devaluation as an option," said Mr Bo. The PBoC burnt through roughly $1tn in foreign exchange reserves in 2015-16 in order to fight market expectations of depreciation. Reviving those expectations now would carry big risks, Mr Bo cautioned. "Any benefit from a major renminbi devaluation would be far outweighed by the negative consequences: accelerated capital flight, domestic liquidity tightening and the possibility of increased credit stress,” he said.

30 Jun 2018 - CNBC

How a surprise deal to boost world oil supply could 'stir the pot' in the Middle East, and pressure Saudi's spare capacity

“Riyadh and Moscow are calling the shots, being the largest producers with the capacity to adjust output readily and in size,” wrote Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at research firm TS Lombard Research, in a note earlier this week. That position, however, isolated some OPEC countries eager to reap more revenue from higher prices.
As Iranian supply is squeezed by sanctions and Venezuela’s production hampered by a relentless deterioration in its economy, “Saudi Arabia with the [Gulf Cooperation Council Countries] and Russia are easily able to take up this kind of slack – Aramco alone has spare capacity of 2 million barrels per day, according to its CEO,” Venetis said, referring to Saudi’s massive public oil giant.

30 Jun 2018 - MarketWatch

Just because the economy is booming doesn’t mean that all is well

“When it comes to uncertainty, people put their hands in their pocket,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard. “It does negatively impact plans for investment.”

29 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Mexico election: Congressional contests will be key as a leftist is poised for runaway presidential win

“AMLO’s expected victory possibly represents the largest change in the political regime of the country in modern times,” Cristobal Arias, Latin America economist at TS Lombard, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “Moreover, his victory could lead to significant gains in congressional seats too, as Mexicans have historically voted for the same party in both the presidential and congressional ballots.”
“AMLO supports NAFTA but would not bet on fostering international relations, particularly in an era of trade tensions,” said TS Lombard's Arias. “While we expect the NAFTA negotiations to resume after the election on 1 July, we believe the next administration will take a nationalist stance on NAFTA while it pursues the trade diversification agenda introduced by the current government in light of US protectionism.”

28 Jun 2018 - Reuters

US oil dips as markets well supplied despite strong demand, outages

"The physical oil market is well supplied," said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at research firm TS Lombard, although he warned OPEC and Russia were producing at near maximum output "leaving a thinner margin of safety for the future."

28 Jun 2018 - Barrons

After the Bell: Dow Drops 165 Points as Gains Evaporate With Trade Optimism

TS Lombard's Konstantinos Venetis writes that even with "100% compliance," that boost won't be "nearly enough to drag the market down. Absent a global growth scare, prices remain well supported and biased to the upside."

27 Jun 2018 - Reuters

Viva Espana: Spain emerges as euro zone bond market's star

“Italy is structurally problematic, and the divergence between Spain and Italy is because Spain was in a position to stimulate,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard. “From a fiscal standpoint, it ran a 6 percent deficit and is starting to rein it in. Italy has no such levers.”

27 Jun 2018 - Reuters

Market rate rise may thwart Fed's balance sheet plan

“It’s a signal that perhaps they are closer to their balance sheet bottom than they had previously thought,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

26 Jun 2018 - Reuters

Column: Creaking credit markets flash danger for stocks

“The credit cycle is past its peak, and credit tends to lead equities in signaling a maturing cycle,” wrote TS Lombard analysts in a note earlier this month. “The credit cycle is fast maturing.”

26 Jun 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The global trade conflict is ever-widening

China is also a big unknown: in view of the bilateral trade surplus, the Middle Kingdom can not respond with punitive tariffs to the same extent. Most analysts, however, assume that China mainly responds with non-financial measures. For example, according to the research house TS Lombard, Chinese companies could be instructed by Beijing to substitute US suppliers for European or Asian alternatives. Also, administratively, China could inflict some pain on the US - for example, acquisitions involving US corporations to deny the necessary approval of the competition guardians.

25 Jun 2018 - The Street

Trump's Obsession With Winning His China Trade War Could Pummel Investors

Pointed out TS Lombard strategist Christopher Granville: "Trump presumably sees this [pressure on China] as a case of cause and effect. The closer the election, the more attractive it may seem to come out with a victory declaration based on the concessions that China has already signaled - both on increasing imports from the U.S. and liberalizing the environment for U.S. investment in China, particularly as regards intellectual property protections. In addition to this display of keeping faith with his voters, this timing would also minimize the domestic economic losses from escalating trade tensions with China."

25 Jun 2018 - CNBC

The Fed's effort to control the rise of its key interest rate is running into some problems

Smaller banks "have been much more aggressive" in expanding lending than large banks, causing them to have to borrow from bigger institutions. That is creating most of the demand in the short-term funds market as big banks already have nearly $2 trillion in reserves at the Fed. That in turn is driving the funds rate higher, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Blitz said there remains some confusion about how high the level of reserves needs to be at the Fed, creating uncertainty about how far the Fed should go in tightening. As for the effort to keep the funds rate in check, "it doesn't seem to be working," he added.

22 Jun 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Japanese Investors Are Back to Their Foreign Bond Buying Ways​

“It seems pretty logical to buy foreign debt at the moment for Japanese investors,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

21 Jun 2018 - CNBC

US Treasury yields fall on lingering worries over global trade

"There is, however, good reason to believe Trump's trade tactics are less about blowing up the global economy than they are about pushing global trading dynamics towards a better semblance of balance. The net result, if successful, could be an increase in domestic capital investment," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.

19 Jun 2018 - Financial Times

US tax reform drains more dollars from global economy than Fed

Steven Blitz, an economist at the consultancy TS Lombard, said that while foreign central banks blamed the combination of a shrinking Fed balance sheet and higher US government borrowing for their difficulties, the figures showed that “the greater force draining dollars appear to be the recent change in US tax law”.
“Banks in these countries will not be getting the same growth in dollar deposits as in the past for a given level of activity,” Mr Blitz said, adding that this would limit such banks’ capacity to lend.

19 Jun 2018 - South China Morning Post

Why a weaker euro means Trump’s trade war may not be so easy for him to win

Looking ahead, investment research firm TS Lombard noted on Friday that the policy rate gap between the ECB and the Fed “is now 2.4 per cent” and, based on their expectations that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points every quarter, it is set to widen by a further 1 per cent in the next 12 months.

“The negative carry associated with [the euro] is becoming a drag on the currency,” TS Lombard’s Europe Team concluded.

19 Jun 2018 - Reuters

'Quitaly' risk premium lingers even as Italy's new government commits to euro

“‘Quitaly’ or ‘Italexit’, or whatever you wish to call the possibility of Italy leaving the euro area, is not on the political horizon. But once the seed of risk is planted, financial markets tend to extrapolate,” said Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard.

18 Jun 2018 - Financial Times

China hopes countermoves will help prevent all-out trade war with US

“The next step is more important, whether Washington is going for the $100bn tariffs or not,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at consultancy TS Lombard. The US’s total exports to China were a record $130bn last year, meaning a tit-for-tat retaliation would have to cover all imports from the US and more. Any tariff rounds beyond that could be a “disaster” for China economically, added Mr Zhuang.

17 Jun 2018 - The Guardian

The order Trump holds in contempt was once America’s proudest creation

Seventy years ago, as a new major book suggests, America helped rebuild Europe and assumed the role of global peacemaker - Jonathan Fenby, Managing Director European Political Research. 

17 Jun 2018 - The Guardian

It's easy to see why populists do well in an age of insecurity

In his new book, Charles Dumas says: “It is vital that the label ‘populism’ does not become a sneer. To be sure, demagogues have readily exploited widespread discontent with quack remedies. But centrist politicians and commentators have shown equally widespread lack of empathy with the legitimate grievances that underlie this neo-Luddism. The way combined globalisation, technology, demographics and financial imbalances are developing could only too easily aggravate neo-Luddism in future, as well as false ethnic and/or regional divisions.”

16 Jun 2018 - CNBC

The Fed said it's hiking rates four times this year, but the market's not convinced

"From the data we look at, there is every reason to believe the economy will more than justify the Fed's proposed trajectory for policy rates," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note to clients. "The trajectory for higher policy rates is in place. The market's 'bet' against that happening is what looks wrong."

14 Jun 2018 - CNBC

How Italian turmoil in the bond markets could spark a domino effect across Europe

"Italy is by far the biggest threat to euro area stability … The economy suffers from a dangerous mix of weak growth, poor competitiveness, high public debt and a struggling banking sector," Shweta Singh, the managing director at TS Lombard, said in a report published Monday.

13 Jun 2018 - Reuters Video

Producer prices rise in May

U.S. prices at the wholesale level rose more than expected in May. "The trend is unmistakable. Input prices are going up. The Federal Reserve's on track to raise rates 25 basis points today and raise rates in September and December and probably on a quarterly basis into next year." says Steve Blitz, US Chief Economist at TS Lombard.

13 Jun 2018 - Valor Economico

Fitch predicts four high interest rates by Fed

Research and research firm TS Lombard also believes the US Central Bank  should raise interest rates today and twice more this year in September and December. These increases in addition to that of March will add up to four highs, according to US economist Steven Blitz. Beginning in 2019, the economist also projects "a quarterly rate hike" due to the effects of the economy's acceleration in inflation and wages. The Fed will print a high pace that should push the Fed Funds rate target to "2.5% or even 3% per year" by 2019 "and then see what happens." 

13 Jun 2018 - Valor Economico

TS Lombard: Repatriation of US companies justifies high dollar

The dollar strength is currently directly linked to interest upward move by the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank), but to the chief economist at consulting and research firm TS Lombard in the United States, Steven Blitz , there is another short-term factor that has made the American currency intensify the appreciation: the repatriation of profits retained abroad by American companies.

10 Jun 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Italy: a high systemic risk

In the financial markets, quick and easy-to-remember short formulas are often invented for complex problems. However, unlike, for example, in 2012, when Grexit came forward for the threat of Greece's exit from the euro zone and the reintroduction of the drachma, there still seems to be no consensus on the name of a possible departure from Italy. The traders could not have decided between Italexit, Quitaly or even Europaderci, says with a slight mockery Dario Perkins of TS Lombard.

09 Jun 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

UBS and CS are taking little risks in Italy

Whatever experiments the Italian government takes on - the two Swiss banks have little to fear. Their involvement in Italy is insignificant and also focuses on businesses. By far the most exposed French banks are on the Italian peninsula. They hold claims in their books that, according to a compilation of TS Lombard economists, account for 12% of French gross domestic product.

08 Jun 2018 - Barrons

The Dark Side of the Boom

While the repatriation of U.S. corporations’ profits held overseas has helped pay for buybacks, it also has drained those dollars held in banks abroad, causing dislocations in the global banking system. In essence, this shift has hampered the ability of foreign banks to expand their balance sheets, writes Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

He estimates U.S. corporations’ earnings held abroad fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $632 billion in the first quarter, which he compared to the $160 billion SAAR of decline in the Fed’s securities holdings. Blitz opines this effect has had an even bigger impact on emerging markets than the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which is being blamed by some monetary authorities abroad for the weakness of EM currencies.

08 Jun 2018 - CNBC

A flood of upcoming elections around the globe could wreak havoc on the financial markets

The AK Party "is still very strong. However, they made a tactical error," said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at TS Lombard. "Politics in Turkey are much more entrenched than they are in America. We'll quite likely see a scenario of political paralysis if the current polls are to be believed." "With a country facing an economic crisis, this the worst time for that," Chenevix said.

07 Jun 2018 - Financial Times

Fresh slump in Italian bonds amid jittery markets

“So is the euro crisis back? The sad truth is that it never really went away — it just lost all sense of urgency after Mario Draghi promised to protect the single currency [in 2012],” said Dario Perkins, global macro managing director at TS Lombard. The speed of last week’s market sell-off was “frightening”, Mr Perkins added, and it provoked conversations among investors about the possibility of Italy exiting the eurozone which were “a scary reminder of past discussions about Greece”.

07 Jun 2018 - The Spectator

The Spectator Podcast: Putin’s Losing Game

Podcast with Christopher Granville, former diplomat and Russia expert at TS Lombard. 

06 Jun 2018 - The Street

Tax-Cut-Fueled Stock Buybacks Retard Emergence of Trump's 'Greatest' Economy

Yet many economists say there are few signs so far that the tax cuts are making much of a difference in overall economic output. Steve Blitz, chief economist at the consultant TS Lombard, said he's seen "zero" impact, though he does expect businesses to eventually increase capital spending on such things as new plants, technology and equipment.

"All that's really occurred so far is that it's put more cash on corporate balance sheets," Blitz said in a phone interview. Corporate treasurers are investing much of that money in U.S. Treasury bonds or putting it into accounts at banks, which also often put money into Treasuries, he said. "That money is being lent to pay for the deficit."

04 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Nasdaq notches record close as shares of Apple and Amazon jump to new highs

"Multilateral tariffs are certainly a warning sign that this is no longer merely a case of US protectionism and that the world is edging towards a trade war," said Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note. "In such a circumstance, global trade growth could fall by 10pp and global GDP by over 1.5pp (according to IMF estimates, after five years).  "The impact of tariffs has been mostly restricted to those sectors that are directly affected. Retaliation is likely to widen the impact and increase political risk, but for now the US economy continues to motor on," Brennan said.

04 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Merkel lays out her vision for the euro — but her ideas are still far from Macron's

"This is Merkel's first attempt to lay out a position on euro zone reform," Constantine Fraser, Europe analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC via email. "She knows she has to engage with demands for more risk-sharing, but also has to bring onboard the conservatives in her CDU-CSU (coalition), and act, in a way, as the spokeswoman for the skeptical smaller northern European countries."

04 Jun 2018 - MarketWatch

Trump’s constant threats and reversals spur investors to see him as boy who cried wolf

“The markets appear only marginally concerned about trade at this point, perhaps because investors are assuming that what we are seeing is the typical Trump pattern: announce something drastic, but in the end it’s not so bad,” wrote investment-research firm TS Lombard.

04 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Mass protests in Jordan push out prime minister

But the fiscal measures were needed, according to Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard. "Reform of some kind is certainly necessary. The current deficit is massive, more than 10 percent of GDP, government debt has nearly doubled since 2007 ... The country cannot go on like this," Chenevix told CNBC, adding that the unrest of the last week was a long time coming. "Fundamentally, growth in the Jordanian economy has been slowing for a decade — something had to give."

01 Jun 2018 - CNBC

Bond expert believes that 'brave' investors should be looking for a rebound in emerging markets

While experts might be optimistic of a rebound for the asset class, some warn that certain countries should be still be avoided due to very specific conditions. Lawrence Brainard, chief economist for emerging markets at TS Lombard, believes that volatility from the troubled markets of Argentina and Turkey could threaten the space more broadly. "The economic turmoil evident in Argentina and Turkey may be a harbinger of what is in store for other EMs, such as Brazil," he said.

31 May 2018 - Reuters

OPEC May oil output hits new low on Nigeria, Venezuela

“OPEC’s bias to err on the side of tightening remains intact,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. “Easing the restrictions just means that its ‘line in the sand’ moves slightly back.”

30 May 2018 - Reuters

Oil edges towards $76, supported by tight supplies

“Fundamentally, not much has changed. Oil remains well supported, although the sweetspot has entered a mature phase,” said Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard. “Some air is fizzling out of the market and position-squaring raises the likelihood of an overshooting to the downside in the run-up to OPEC’s June meeting.”

29 May 2018 - The Street

Worried About Stocks? This FANG Stock Chart Will Definitely Feed Your Anxiety

To be sure, investors have good reasons to pull some money off the table. TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins points to four areas of concern:

  • Eurozone data that has missed consensus forecasts by the widest margin since the global financial crisis. Perkins calls EU macro data in 2017 "implausibly high", so a slowdown was inevitable.
  • The OECD's leading indicators have dipped.
  • Global industrial orders and trade data have softened, notably among Asian supply chains.
  • Emerging markets more broadly have slowed, in part thanks to the stronger U.S. dollar.
29 May 2018 - Arab News

Saudi bank lending climbs on real estate loans

“It’s a hard indicator to read, but it may be a sign that Saudi consumers and business people feel less uncertain about the future and a bit more secure. It is probably linked to the return to fiscal expansion,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard in London. “However, Saudi Arabia has a comparatively underdeveloped banking sector for its level of per-capita wealth, meaning that this is an area in which we would expect to see pretty strong growth.”

29 May 2018 - ICIS

Turkey’s central bank calms markets but economic growth woes persist

“Absolutely. First it was Argentina, now Turkey. The country has been able to fund very high growth, in the face of large external imbalances, by tapping the easy money created by QE [quantitative easing, by the US Fed or the eurozone’s ECB, among others]. As markets begin to look ahead to an exit from QE, funding conditions are getting systemically tougher for Turkish banks, just as they are for other Ems [emerging markets],” Marcus Chenevix, a financial analyst for Turkey at London-based TS Lombard, told ICIS.

29 May 2018 - CNBC

Why Trump’s Iran sanctions could backfire on US goals to stabilize Afghanistan’s economy

"This policy of isolating Iran runs directly counter to U.S. interests in Afghanistan," said Marcus Chenevix, MENA researcher at TS Lombard. By potentially forcing Afghanistan to sever links with one of its largest trading partners, he said, "the Trump administration is hitting the beleaguered Afghan economy with yet another shock at a time when the government is already struggling against a reinvigorated Taliban." A trilateral memorandum of understanding signed in 2016 between India, Iran and Afghanistan committed $21 billion to the project — $9 billion for the actual port in Chabahar, and the remaining $21 billion for developing Afghanistan's iron ore export capabilities. "This deal was all about Afghanistan," Chenevix said.

28 May 2018 - Reuters

Flood or dud? Inflows from China MSCI entry are anybody's guess

Research house TS Lombard said in a note that fund managers could easily adjust their portfolios by buying Hong Kong-listed stocks, meaning they would not need increased mainland exposure. Of the 230 or so A-shares being added to the index, 49 have H-share listings.

24 May 2018 - Bloomberg

Trump Pushes the World Right Into Putin’s Hands

With Italy’s incoming populist government certain to block any new European Union sanctions and perhaps even trigger an easing, there’s suddenly a more “constructive atmosphere” for Russia in Europe, said Christopher Granville of London-based consultancy TS Lombard.

23 May 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Fall as Trade Tensions Linger

Europe’s auto sector, often seen as a potential target in trade spats, fell 1.9%. “The question is whether Europe becomes the next trade target for Trump,” said Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard. “If Italy went down the path of putting in place all these measures [in a leaked draft agreement] there would be a massive budget deficit,” said Mr. Cicione. “But a coalition like this one, with a thin majority... is not going to implement anything like the measures they put forward.”

23 May 2018 - CNBC

Greece’s economic future is nearing a crucial moment

"Having the IMF on board would be one of the best ways to signal to market participants that Greece can now sustainably look after itself," Constantine Fraser, a Europe analyst at research firm TS Lombard told CNBC via email. He added that Germany is also determined to see the IMF sign off on the current bailout. "After all, IMF participation was a precondition for the Bundestag (German Parliament) agreeing to the 2015 bailout."

23 May 2018 - Financial Times

John Authers: Fearful Symmetry

The concept of symmetry, or the notion that an overshoot of the inflation target is no less desirable than an undershoot by the same margin, is mentioned frequently, and might conceivably be taken to mean that in effect the FOMC has raised the level of inflation it is prepared to tolerate. This comment comes from Steve Blitz of TS Lombard: The doves ruled-the-roost during this meeting with their myriad reasons given for why inflation really is not yet at 2%. By convincing themselves this is so, policy gave way to a symmetrical inflation target (symmetrical might be the most repeated word in these minutes) in order to prevent a policy overreaction that would keep the economy from reaching the FOMC’s “symmetric 2% objective” on a “sustained basis”. Sustained was probably the second most used word in these minutes.

19 May 2018 - The Street

A Silent Global Economic Slowdown Is Playing Out and Investors Should Beware

"While we should be careful not to exaggerate the recent deterioration in global economic data - particularly as it follows synchronized, above-trend growth in 2017 - it is clear that there are now scattered signs of weakness," points out TS Lombard strategist Dario Perkins. "While macroeconomic data have proved more resilient at the global level, the outlook has also deteriorated compared to what investors expected at the start of the year."

17 May 2018 - CNBC

Trump right that Iran's hostility in Middle East can't carry on: TS Lombard

Marcus Chenevix, MENA and global political analyst at TS Lombard, speaks about U.S. foreign policy on Iran.

17 May 2018 - Bloomberg

The U.S.-China Rivalry Is Just Getting Started

Even if the two sides work out a deal on trade, the clear evidence that the U.S. is capable of shutting down one of China’s most important tech companies practically overnight has almost certainly made the Chinese more determined than ever to build up their domestic capabilities. “China’s sense of urgency in developing core technologies is now more urgent.” Bo Zhuang, chief China economist in Beijing at research firm TS Lombard, puts it even more bluntly in an email: “We are heading towards a technological arms race between China and the West.”

17 May 2018 - CNBC

Iraq’s election result is a backlash against foreign influence — and a curveball for the US and Iran

"A strong result for Sadrists is not great news for the U.S., but it is not the worst news either," despite the violent history between the two, according to Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and global politics researcher at TS Lombard. "Sadr is relatively independent of Iranian control, much more so than Amiri. So this result is going to result in a more difficult relationship with the Iraqi government, but it will not create a rift between Iraq and the West."

17 May 2018 - Financial Times

EM currencies on the ropes as 10-year bond yield tops 3.1%

“The recent sell-off in EM assets is not a surprise,” said Shweta Singh, a global macro strategist at TS Lombard. “A resurgent dollar and higher yields will raise EMs’ funding and debt-servicing costs. In more extreme cases, it could lead to a reversal of EM carry trades, which have proliferated since the great financial crisis.”

15 May 2018 - Financial Times

Is the euro’s Italian ‘nightmare’ about to come true?

Constantine Fraser at TS Lombard thinks Italy’s “pussycat populists” are no longer the “nightmare” the EU once feared. Expect compromise ministerial candidates and a palatable prime ministerial choice in the days ahead. “The Italian political system is terrible at yielding strong, stable governments with a mandate to take difficult decisions. But it still does well what it was designed to do following the fall of fascism: to diffuse power, deflect political impulses, and generally throw up obstacles to ambitious programmes of all kinds”, adds Mr Fraser.

15 May 2018 - CNBC

Major India vote boosts Prime Minister Modi's party, but markets suffer a rocky trade

"Investor attention will very quickly turn to the campaigns in the three big northern states scheduled for polls later this year," said Shumita Deveshwar, senior director for India research at TS Lombard, in a note Monday. "Those polls will be more indicative of the BJP's popularity as northern India is the party's traditional stronghold," she explained.

15 May 2018 - CNBC

Turkey’s economy is entering a ‘slow burning crisis,’ analysts warn

"The government has no intention of tackling imbalances or overheating," Marcus Chenevix, global political research analyst at TS Lombard, said in a research note this week. "It is this unwillingness to act that leads us to believe that we can now say that Turkey is entering a slow burning crisis."

14 May 2018 - CNBC

US inflation taking a back seat to wages: TS Lombard

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steve Blitz speaks about the Federal Reserve's approach to raising interest rates.

14 May 2018 - CNBC

Dow posts 8-day winning streak as US-China trade concerns abate

"For the President to become suddenly concerned about Chinese jobs is quite a volte-face," said Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China research at TS Lombard. "The most probable explanation can only be that he wants to butter up Xi with a concession on the trade front to get China's help to make [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un amenable to a deal at the Singapore summit, in an application of linkage he advanced last year of Korea and China trade issues."

12 May 2018 - Financial Times

Britain’s relationship with Turkey in charts

The UK sees Turkey “as a fast-growing market for exactly the kind of exports that British governments are always trying to encourage, namely cars, machinery and pharmaceuticals, all of which generate jobs in areas where elections are won,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at TS Lombard. But he added that Turkey could become “a bigger part the UK’s supply chain, especially in terms of machinery and parts”, mainly thanks to being cheaper and a “very able supplier of manufactured goods”. The UK “needs Turkey more than ever as an economic and geopolitical partner”, said Mr Chenevix.

09 May 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg - Daybreak

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, on Bloomberg Radio.

07 May 2018 - Reuters

Dollar surge bringing emerging market rate cut cycle to a halt

India, like all energy-importing emerging economies, is being hit also by the oil price rise — each $10 rise in oil prices adds 0.8 percent to inflation there, analysts at TS Lombard calculate.

06 May 2018 - Financial Times

Emerging economies tipped to weather market turmoil

“Markets are not yet pricing in a long and ugly US-China confrontation,” said Jon Harrison, economist at TS Lombard, adding: “over the next few months, trade tensions, dollar strength, higher Treasury yields, rising inflation, weaker current accounts and geopolitics will lead to a deeper correction”.

05 May 2018 - The Telegraph

Greece escapes a financial tragedy

Unemployment is down from almost 28pc in 2014 to just over 21pc. The trend gives more workers money in their pockets and leaves fewer in need of benefits. Economists across Europe are impressed. “For the first time in years, the clouds over Athens seem to be just starting to clear,” says Shweta Singh, at TS Lombard. “Albeit from a very low base, things are starting to look up.”

02 May 2018 - Reuters

Asia sees signs of export weakness before key U.S.-China trade talks

“The agreement to talk, even if not yet to begin formal negotiations, is ... a step in the right direction, albeit one that brings a risk of negative market reaction when followed by inevitable disappointment as talks enter a more protracted phase,” said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging markets macro strategy at TS Lombard.

02 May 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Bloomberg Markets: Fed Holds The Line, Apple’s iPhone Growth

Steven Blitz Chief U.S. Economist TS Lombard discussing FOMC rate decision and economic impact.

01 May 2018 - Financial Times

Wrongfooted dollar traders brace for Fed hawkishness

TS Lombard said the backdrop of the FOMC discussion was one of economic growth “with price and wage trends pointing higher and capital spending improving”. While a rate increase was unlikely this week, “we believe a more hawkish statement is coming”, its analysts added.

01 May 2018 - CNBC

Trump looks set to scrap Iran's nuclear deal — and this is where it'll hurt the most

"As always, the parts of the economy that will be worst hit are the parts that are most internationally-connected," Marcus Chevenix, MENA analyst at independent research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC Tuesday. "And those parts in Iran are oil and banking. If I had to flag up an area that was very vulnerable it would be banking," he said. Chevenix said that if the U.S. decided to impose "secondary sanctions" on Iran, it could prevent European firms doing business with the country, even if they wanted to. Secondary sanctions deter other countries or institutions (such as European banks) from doing business with Iran because they don't want to be blacklisted - or "exposed" as Chenevix said - by the U.S. for doing so, effectively cutting off Iranian business from access to external investment and financial systems. "If Trump was to impose secondary sanctions, he could cut off the Iranian banking system from the rest of the world and that would take us back to a pre-2015 situation. The U.S. has all sorts of unilateral power here," he said.

30 Apr 2018 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

Higher interest rates are not a problem yet

It was a long-awaited moment. For the first time since January 2014, ten-year US government bonds returned more than 3% on April 24. According to Steven Blitz, economist of the research house TS Lombard, the value of 3% is "not more important than a return of 2.99 or 3.01%". Nevertheless, market observers spoke of a milestone. Because the threshold is psychological. It was last tested several times but not exceeded.

30 Apr 2018 - CNBC

There's an 'undeclared new Cold War' between the US and China - and it's in tech

Increased scrutiny from the U.S. on Chinese firms could exacerbate the tension, according to Jonathan Fenby, chairman of the China team at independent research group TS Lombard. "U.S. moves designed to curb China's technological development are likely to act as a fresh spur to its push to expand its cyber capacity," he said in a note Thursday.

30 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

Fears of a new taper tantrum grow as dollar debts surge around the world

Economist Dario Perkins at TS Lombard believes this will give the Fed cause for caution on rate rises. “When there was a 20pc appreciation of the dollar a couple of years ago, it had a much more powerful effect on global economy than everyone expected – the Fed ignored it, and were still in this world where they thought they had basically a closed economy and it didn’t matter. But then they saw these powerful spillovers into emerging markets, then into oil prices, and then back into US again,” he said. “They were planning to raise interest rates quite aggressively, but then the dollar appreciated and they just couldn’t do it." New Fed chair Jerome Powell’s background in financial markets combined with this prior experience may cause the central bank to act more cautiously, he said.

30 Apr 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Inflation Hit Federal Reserve’s 2% Target in March

Inflation softened last year, in part because mobile phone service providers slashed prices. That has now washed through the system and Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said “the great disinflation scare of 2017 appears to have ended” in a recent note to clients.

27 Apr 2018 - MarketWatch

Stingy consumer spending in GDP report grabs the attention of economists

“With strong growth and inflation beginning to follow, the real story of Q1 GDP data, it is increasingly difficult to argue for the federal funds rate to trade below inflation and, more to the point, that somehow the 2% inflation target hasn’t already been breached. Could the Fed go [next] week? Not likely, but there are no rules preventing it. A more hawkish statement is coming.” says Steven Blitz, TS Lombard.

27 Apr 2018 - Reuters

U.S. economy slows in first quarter, but wage growth accelerates

“It is increasingly difficult to argue that the 2 percent inflation target hasn’t already been breached,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. “Could the Fed go next week? Not likely, but there are no rules preventing it. A more hawkish statement is coming.”

27 Apr 2018 - IG Group

Turbulence ahead but China to drive EM’s long expansion

Volatility will return to emerging markets, according to TS Lombard’s Jon Harrison, as geopolitical tensions may trigger a correction, but EM will come through this.

26 Apr 2018 - The Guardian

The silent recovery: how much longer can America’s long, slow boom last?

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macroeconomics at the research company TS Lombard, says the US is not alone in having experienced a long period of growth. “Among the developed economies, Australia, Sweden, Germany and Canada all have expansions that match or surpass the US achievement. And if we extend the analysis to the emerging economies, we find several countries with even more impressive performances.” Europe, which suffered a double-dip recession and only began a sustained pick-up in 2013, is the one part of the world where the recovery looks relatively immature, Perkins says.

26 Apr 2018 - The Sydney Morning Herald

Macron resists Trump's 'America first' in speech to US Congress

"Much freight is moved by rail in France, not road, so it will have an effect on the economy," says economist Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. "Macron will probably have to say to [EU partners] Germany and to Brussels, 'we'll not do as well this year as last year'. But he has been buoyed by the eurozone economy. Also he does not have a coherent political opposition."

25 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

We must heed warnings from the 1970s bear market

If there is a risk that inflation is being underestimated in the advanced economies, it is at its greatest in the US. The economy is growing at a good pace and is being deluged with fiscal largesse when already close to full employment. Treasury yields are increasingly sensitive to the risk of overheating and that in turn, according to Konstantinos Venetis of TS Lombard, has made Treasuries less attractive as a hedge, diverting some haven flows to the gold market. Gold, of course, was just the place to be in the bear market of 1973-74.

25 Apr 2018 - Reuters

Gold falls on strong dollar, higher U.S. yields

"As the Goldilocks market environment draws to a close,investor interest in gold has picked up," TS Lombard said in a note, referring to an economy that is not so hot that it causes inflation, and not so cold that it causes a recession.

24 Apr 2018 - South China Morning Post

Forget the Hong Kong dollar, it’s Japanese banks that may crack under US dollar funding strain

If tighter US dollar funding conditions are to persist or worsen, it might prove uncomfortable for Japan’s banks. Indeed, a piece in February from financial research group TS Lombard was pointedly titled “Is the Next Lehman Japanese?”  While “European banks played a decisive role in the subprime crisis,” TS Lombard wrote, Japan’s banks “may have taken over as the main systemic vulnerability”, having greatly expanded the size of their US dollar loan books in recent years, leaving themselves with huge US dollar funding needs, reminiscent of European banks in 2007. 

24 Apr 2018 - Reuters

India's Modi may need an alliance to rule southern state, poll shows

“Karnataka is significant for the BJP because it needs to outperform in the south and the east of the country to make up for expected losses in the north,” said Amitabh Dubey, a political analyst with consultancy TS Lombard. “In the general election they are unlikely to repeat the same result as the last time in states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat.”

21 Apr 2018 - The Spectator

Has Kim Jong-un finally grown up?

Given the mutual bluster, threats and sabre-rattling we got used to from Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, it may be hard to credit the air of sweet reasonableness that has spread over the Korean peninsula in recent weeks leading to the weekend announcement of an end to weapons testing by the North. The potential for a reversion to confrontation is all too evident. Pyongyang has a long record of reneging on agreements and its announcement contained no mention of a reduction in its arsenal that includes missiles which can hit Japan and South Korea even if it stops development of ICBMs aimed at the USA. But, for the moment at least, this seems a moment when the different interests of the main players have been brought into alignment, not only Trump and the two Koreas but also the big beast in the region – China.

20 Apr 2018 - Reuters

Safe no more? Swiss franc slide raises Russia puzzle

“The repatriation of Russian flight capital is certainly a live theme, but the latest geo-political tensions are just adding fuel rather than being the root cause,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at consultancy TS Lombard. He noted Russia had joined the Automatic Exchange of Information on Financial Accounts, an OECD initiative to crack down on tax dodging, in 2016, but its information exchange process with partner countries, including Switzerland, went live only in January 2018. “Since Russian tax residents can no longer be sure of keeping their money safe in Switzerland, they feel they might as well repatriate and take advantage of a tax amnesty at home - then pay tax at (Russia’s) 13 percent rate,” Granville said.

20 Apr 2018 - Expansion

The Goldsmith financiers, scared by the crisis in Catalonia

Other analysts believe that the composition of the Spanish stock market, with the weight of large multinational groups, makes it more dependent on the euro than Catalonia (except hecatomb). "Since last summer, the Ibex has been damaged by Telefónica and Inditex, affected by the strength of the euro and other factors in their respective sectors," says Constantine Fraser, TS Lombard.

17 Apr 2018 - BBC

China's first quarter growth beats expectations at 6.8%

Against this backdrop, Bo Zhuang, China economist at the research firm TS Lombard told the BBC that exports growth is the top growth risk in 2018. And while Mr Zhuang said stock markets have already priced in significant risks of a trade war, his firm believes it is feasible and likely that a deal can be negotiated. As such, Chinese growth data through 2018 will be closely watched for any impact of tariffs proposed by the US.

16 Apr 2018 - Bloomberg

Yuan Has Become a Safe Haven, Says TS Lombard's Brainard

Larry Brainard, TS Lombard chief emerging markets economist, discusses the relationship between the U.S. and China. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton and Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Markets."

16 Apr 2018 - Bloomberg

TS Lombard's Blitz Calls Clarida Fed Pick Positive for Markets

TS Lombard Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz discusses the markets and weighs in on U.S. President Donald Trump announcing his intention to nominate Richard Clarida as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. Blitz speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

15 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

The eurozone's boom is over – how worried should we be?

“Much freight is moved by rail in France, not road, so it will have an effect on the economy,” says Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. “Macron will probably have to say to Germany and to Brussels, ‘we’ll not do as well this year as last year’. But he has been buoyed by the eurozone economy. Also he does not have a coherent political opposition.”

14 Apr 2018 - Barrons

Oil Prices Haven’t Peaked Yet

We’re likely to see $80 within the next three months, but we don’t think that price is sustainable for long. We think Russia is the most likely risk for higher production which would send prices down again, says Marucs Chenevix, Analyst, EMEA and global political risk, TS Lombard

13 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Trump misses opportunity to curb China's growing global influence by skipping Summit of the Americas

"US officials [had] previously suggested that an agreement in principle could be reached in time for the Summit of the Americas," said Jon Harrison, managing director and EM macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note Wednesday. "A delay until at least the end of the month now appears more likely. A new NAFTA deal would confirm US willingness to compromise on trade and help offset the rising criticism of Trump's policy from businesses."

10 Apr 2018 - South China Morning Post

US-China trade war may be a boon to the euro and Brazilian real

Taking that argument into the currency space, TS Lombard’s senior macro strategist Oliver Brennan argued last week that the Brazilian real could appreciate versus the US dollar as the foreign exchange market starts to realise that any tariff-related reduction in US soybean exports to China, as a consequence of the trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, could be to Brazil’s advantage. 

09 Apr 2018 - Wall Street Journal

A Trade War Could Add to the Dollar’s Woes

“It’s hard to see the dollar going up,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “If all these tariffs cause the U.S. economy to slow…the dollar would weaken.”

09 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

Brazil could reap benefits of China-US trade tension

“China’s interest in investing in Brazil and its dependence on Brazilian commodities will continue to strengthen in the current environment,” said TS Lombard analysts Elizabeth Johnson and Larry Brainard in a research note. 

09 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Russian stocks crash on new sanctions; aluminum prices soar on penalties to global producer Rusal

"The new US sanctions against Russia are a negative game-changer for three reasons: they directly affect portfolio investments; they are de-linked from clear conditionality; and they will be applied 'extra-territorially,'" said Christopher Granville, a managing director at TS Lombard, in a note to clients. The sanctions "justify a higher risk premium in Russian asset valuations."

09 Apr 2018 - Reuters

Russia's ruble, Rusal, Sberbank take hits as US sanctions bite

“Rusal will probably have to be bailed out by Russian state banks,” analysts at TS Lombard wrote, adding that Deripaska may also be forced to sell his stake in Norilsk Nickel, losing a drawn-out battle with Vladimir Potanin for control of the metals giant.

09 Apr 2018 - CNBC

The US could lift sanctions on Zimbabwe — but only if the new president holds fair elections

“The new president (of Zimbabwe) can expect to get both financial aid, more help with infrastructure (including the expansion of Harare airport) and technological assistance, as well as Chinese participation in agricultural projects,” Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at research firm TS Lombard, told CNBC last week of the visit.

06 Apr 2018 - Reuters

U.S. job gains smallest in six months, wage growth firming

“In sum, no change in the Fed’s trajectory,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. “If anything, the wage data are beginning to strengthen the argument for three more hikes this year.”

06 Apr 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Steve Blitz on the March 2018 Jobs Report

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, joins Carol Massar in studio to discuss March jobs report.

06 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

Soyabean wars: China tries to hit Donald Trump where it hurts

The consultancy TS Lombard estimates a 10 per cent rise in soyabean prices would lift inflation by less than 0.2 per cent, suggesting China has room for manoeuvre.

06 Apr 2018 - Financial Times

US imposes toughest Russian sanctions to date

“This is a sweeping attack against the Russian establishment,” said Christopher Granville, managing director of TS Lombard, the consultancy.

05 Apr 2018 - CNBC

TS Lombard: Fair and reciprocal Chinese-US trade is impossible

There are more serious issues than tariffs that the U.S. and China will have to discuss in the long term, Jonathan Fenby, chairman of China team at TS Lombard, said.

05 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Brazilian stocks jump after court ruling likely cripples Lula's chances for election run

"The fact that he's likely unable to run throws the race wide open," said Lawrence Brainard, chief economist for emerging markets at TS Lombard. "The various polls with [da Silva] as a candidate show him as the leading candidate. The other candidates are sort of spread out." 

Brainard notes that, with da Silva likely out of the picture, a centrist candidate pushing for economic reforms could emerge to win the October contest. "But no one knows who that will be," he said.

04 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

Mark Carney walks 
a tightrope on future interest rate decisions

“The combination of subpar real income growth, fragile household balance sheets and Brexit uncertainty may mean that the housing market is more vulnerable to a quicker pace of monetary tightening than currently anticipated,” said Konstantinos Venetis at TS Lombard.

“The glass is only half-full on the economy. Growth is nowhere near lift-off. Even with rate increases that are ‘at a gradual pace and to a limited extent’, the MPC will be treading a fine line,” says TS Lombard’s Venetis.

04 Apr 2018 - The Telegraph

China ‘throws down gauntlet’ to Trump on trade with new tariffs against US goods

Analysts added that there was still room to avoid catastrophe. “‘Trade War’ is a convenient shorthand. We expect the confrontation between the US and its trading partners, particularly China, ultimately to lead to negotiated compromises on a range of trade, tariff, access and intellectual property issues,” said Jon Harrison at TS Lombard. “By contrast, a full-on trade war, which we do not expect, would entail escalating tit-for-tat protectionist measures that would have a deeply negative impact on trade. World trade volumes may not deliver on the optimistic expectations of some analysts, but we do not expect a collapse. Markets will nonetheless remain on edge owing to the chaotic US negotiating style.”

04 Apr 2018 - CNBC Closing Bell

American worker and consumer lose from tit-for-tat tariffs

Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard China team chairman, and Steve Orlins, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations president, discuss the retaliatory tariff environment between the U.S. and China.

03 Apr 2018 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Investors in a clinch with the signs of the times

Analyzing the impact of President Trump's trade policy on the US and global economies or on the financial markets is the key point, says Steven Blitz, US economist for TS Lombard. Rather, Trump intended to shake up the world trade system, treating huge surpluses as virtues they are not, and sustaining them with countless impediments from market forces balancing unequal trade flows through currency adjustments. Trump's main concern is China. In particular, he urged the "theft of intellectual property" to prevent the United States from losing its know-how lead through forced technology transfer.

03 Apr 2018 - CNBC

Dow closes more than 350 points higher as tech cuts Monday's losses

Investors "have been reassessing their stance on the sector," said Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard. "There are ever louder calls for tighter regulation, which would likely affect the advertising revenues of the social network company and other internet giants such as Google."

29 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Auto sector has always been in a 'tight situation,' strategist says

Andrea Cicione, head of macro strategy at TS Lombard, discusses the auto sector and potential market risks.

28 Mar 2018 - IG Group

Global markets tune into China-US trade talks

Markets took fright as President Trump aimed $60 billion of annual tariffs at China. TS Lombard’s Jon Harrison explains how we came to this point, and the prospects for an amicable settlement. 

27 Mar 2018 - Bloomberg

TS Lombard's Granville Says Diplomat Expulsions Reflect a Reaction to Circumstantial Evidence

Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, discusses international relations after over 100 Russian envoys have been expelled globally. He speaks with Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." 

24 Mar 2018 - Barrons

The Unseen Forces Behind the Market’s Plunge

That 19th century model doesn’t come close to describing today’s economy, with its intricate supply chains that stretch across borders. Even a moderate rise in protectionism could disrupt these lengthy and complicated supply chains and thus the global economy, writes Dario Perkins, managing director for global macro at TS Lombard.

22 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Dow drops more than 700 points on trade fears, posts worst day since Feb. 8

"Trump's protectionism is making investors nervous," Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, said in a note Thursday. "Past experience suggests these policies are flawed, while even moderate trade barriers could disrupt today's complex global supply chains."

22 Mar 2018 - Reuters

Trump moves toward China tariffs in warning shot on technology transfer

“Tensions are likely to escalate further, even without a full-scale trade war. This could disrupt global supply chains and damage investor sentiment,” said Dario Perkins, head of global macroeconomics research at TS Lombard, a London-based economic consultancy.

20 Mar 2018 - South China Morning Post

Watch for a quarter-point interest rate increase this week by a Fed eager to show its talons

That is quite a move even if the rise in USD LIBOR is not an indicator of a wider crisis as analysts such as TS Lombard’s senior macro strategist Oliver Brennan have argued. Brennan’s view is that higher offshore US dollar borrowing costs should be seen as primarily a consequence of greenback repatriation related to Trump’s tax legislation.

20 Mar 2018 - CNBC

What to watch for during President Trump's meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince

Christopher Granville of TS Lombard says economic development and US shale oil production will likely come up in today's meeting between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in addition to national security issues.

20 Mar 2018 - Middle East Eye

Money flees Saudi Arabia at rapid pace

“Chances are we won’t see the effect of the capital outflow from that until this year,” says Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East-North Africa analyst at the financial firm TS Lombard in London. 

17 Mar 2018 - MarketWatch

This political-risk gauge just hit a 15-year high — and here’s what it means for the stock market

TS Lombard note in July from senior macrostrategist Oliver Brennan, writes that White House uncertainty has weighed the most on the greenback. “After six months of Trump, stocks are being made great again, but Russiagate is weighing on the dollar and yields,” Brennan wrote.

16 Mar 2018 - BBC Radio

Russia votes in presidential elections this weekend

Russia votes in presidential elections this weekend, with Vladimir Putin expected to secure a fourth term. We ask Christopher Granville from TS Lombard about the economic and political factors behind his success.

16 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Russian cash parked abroad may start flowing back home amid UK threats

Recently announced targeted sanctions from the U.S. Treasury Department and threats of asset freezes by the U.K. government are making some wealthy Russians nervous, said Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard.

15 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Britain expels 23 Russian diplomats

Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, discusses the spy poisoning spat between the U.K. and Russia.

13 Mar 2018 - The Street

Why the February Jobs Report Is the Most Important Jobs Report of 2018

While the projected increase in wage growth would represent a slight tick downward from the January reading, it would add credence to the notion that wages are set for further gains, said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at analysis firm TS Lombard.  "Everything says that wages are beginning to trend higher," Blitz said in a phone interview. "Given the continued expansion of jobs and the economy and the low level of unemployment, you can only assume upward pressure on wages going forward." Fed officials currently project three quarter-point rate increases this year, but TS Lombard's Blitz said he thinks upward wage pressure could spur the central bank to raise rates four times.

11 Mar 2018 - DPA International

China's President Xi Jinping gets green light for unlimited rule

Xi, who also serves as leader of the Communist Party and head of its Central Military Commission, has aimed to meld the party and the state more closely together in order "to provide China with the domestic political machine to achieve his global ambitions," said Jonathan Fenby, a researcher with TS Lombard in London.

07 Mar 2018 - Morningstar

Xi Jinping's Unlimited Rule Is New Wild Card For China's Economy

Xi's consolidation of power will add muscle to his current economic policies. However, the Communist Party's continuing prying into the inner workings of multinationals operating in China is likely to make life more testing for foreign investors, says Jonathan Fenby, a researcher at TS Lombard in London.

05 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Italian exit polls point to hung parliament

Italy’s market is in the red after yesterday’s election signaled a hung parliament. Constantine Fraser of TS Lombard gives his take.

05 Mar 2018 - Quartz

What China’s Xi Jinping wants with all that power

Another reason for Xi to remain in the presidential role is because the job is becoming more important than ever, partly thanks to his global ambitions. Xi “could hardly have made his globe-trotting round of state visits as head of the Party… but he also needed the post to have real resonance,” wrote Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at the TS Lombard research service.

04 Mar 2018 - CNBC

Saudi Arabia reform efforts, Aramco IPO may be complicated by Fed rate hike campaign

"In order to maintain the peg, the Saudi authorities have to move interest rates in lockstep with the Fed," Marcus Chenevix, a London-based MENA analyst with TS Lombard, told CNBC. "If they do not raise interest rates as the Fed raises rates, then the riyal becomes unattractive to hold because the dollar would give a higher rate of return than the riyal, while still being exchangeable for the same amount or riyals, it would be a huge incentive" for investors to bet against the riyal/dollar peg.

02 Mar 2018 - IG Group

Political uncertainty won’t help Italy’s recovery

Constantine Fraser, European political analyst at TS Lombard, talks to Victoria Scholar about political uncertainty and the economic recovery in Italy.

28 Feb 2018 - CNBC

New Fed Chair Powell is a refreshing change to Yellen

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, reacts to new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's debut testimony to Congress.

26 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

Power grab strengthens Xi’s influence on China economic reforms

The Chinese presidency may be less important within the Communist system than controlling the party or the military, but it is the role that is most visible to Chinese citizens as well as foreign nations. “His frequent foreign visits show he wants to put his personal stamp on the extension of Chinese influence globally,” says Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at the TS Lombard research service.

26 Feb 2018 - The Telegraph

Endowing his role with endless rule shows Xi's imperial ambitions

he early decades of China’s economic expansion and opening-up fostered a comforting feeling in Western circles that the world’s most populous nation would “become more like us” as it bred a middle class which would espouse democratic values. That illusion is now being demolished by a leader who has reverted to a traditional autocratic style of rule, underlined this week by a move to enable him to stay in office for as long as he wishes.

22 Feb 2018 - Barrons

Has the Fed “Put Option” Expired?

But Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, detected a change of tone in the minutes vis-à-vis the central bank’s relationship with the markets. He cites the following paragraph:

“Regulatory actions and improved risk management in recent years had put the financial system in a better position to withstand adverse shocks, such as a substantial decline in asset prices, than in the past. However, amid elevated asset valuations and an increased use of debt by nonfinancial corporations, several participants cautioned that imbalances in financial markets may begin to emerge as the economy continued to operate above potential. In this environment, increased use of leverage by nonbank financial institutions might be difficult to detect in a timely manner. It was also noted that the Committee should regularly reassess risks to the financial system and their implications for the economic outlook in light of the potential for changes in regulatory policies over time.”

22 Feb 2018 - CNBC

Nasdaq closes lower for fourth straight day, S&P 500 hangs on to slight gain

"The minutes convey a clear sense that inflation is more on their minds than the FOMC statement indicated," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note. "The minutes gave readers conviction that only a sea change will stay the Fed from four 25bp rate rises in 2018. One might think this trajectory puts the Fed behind economic activity, but market odds-setters still very much lag the Fed, pricing in only about a 25% chance of four hikes this year."

20 Feb 2018 - Reuters

Will de Guindos be a dove or a hawk?

Ultimately the key question boils down to whether he'll be a dove or a hawk and how could he tip the balance of power in Frankfurt. Research firm TS Lombard believes your best bet lies in the middle. "Without a strong background of his own in monetary policy, it is very possible de Guindos will turn out to be more neutral a voice – some might say a malleable one - on the executive board than the dovish Constancio," they write. If de Guindos gets picked, as it seems,, that would add pressure to appoint a northerner to replace Draghi, paving the way for a clearly hawkish German ECB presidency. "The most obvious German candidate is the controversial, hawkish head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann – but with or without him, a shift towards a less dovish executive board by end 2019 looks likely," TS Lombard adds.      

19 Feb 2018 - Barrons

The Ghost of Inflation Reappears

Looking more deeply at the January jump in CPI shows definite trends, according to Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. Deflation in the prices of consumer goods we like to buy is ending; the rate of increase in the cost of things we have to buy either is rising, as for food and energy, or remains high, as for services or rent.

Consumers’ paychecks had been keeping up with rising rents and services costs, while prices of goods have been falling, Blitz continues. “With goods prices set to rise and rent showing no signs of slowing down (in the aggregate), consumer finances are set to be squeezed further,” he writes.

19 Feb 2018 - MarketWatch

Dollar steadies versus rivals in holiday-thinned trade

“Madrid has been pushing hard for [de Guindos], arguing that Spain is underrepresented at the top of Europe’s institutions,” wrote Constantine Fraser, political analyst at TS Lombard, in a note late last week.

18 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

China threatens to retaliate against US metals tariffs

“For the moment I think China will just put out harsher rhetoric,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at consultancy TS Lombard. “Agricultural sector retaliation is more likely since (China’s) food price inflation is low. The next possible step will be going on further with a soyabean and corn investigation,” he added.

12 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Treasury Bonds Weaken as Global Stocks Rally

“The global economy remains strong; inflation, while likely to accelerate somewhat this year, is still subdued; and liquidity is still ample, even though central banks are tightening policy at the margin,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, in a research note.

08 Feb 2018 - MarketWatch

Volatility aftershocks? Here’s what stock-market investors need to know

Andrea Cicione of TS Lombard saw no sign that risk-parity unwinding was a culprit in the recent selloff. “Risk parity indices have been flat since November 2017, while the S&P 500 was up 12%; exuberance in plain-vanilla equities, not risk parity strategies, is to blame,” he said in a Tuesday note.

07 Feb 2018 - Monocle Radio

Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic standing with the US may be putting UK hopes in jeopardy

Jonathan Fenby and Florence Biedermann join Monocle editor Andrew Tuck to discuss whether Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic standing with the US may be putting UK hopes in jeopardy. Plus: French labour laws attract new investment, the delicate challenge of relocating Westminster’s operations and the complex legacy of the man who put together Ikea.

06 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Saudi Campaign Seeks to Calm Investors Shaken by Anticorruption Drive

Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London, says the crackdown will reduce corruption and move the country “away from a confusing system of multiple and competing power centers to one powerful center. ”But Mr. Chenevix also says money managers he advises have been pulling money from Saudi assets, concerned by what they see as the opaqueness and volatility of local politics. “There won’t be a rapid return in confidence in Saudi Arabia,” he said.

06 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

Renminbi flies after Beijing removes shackles

One other wrinkle is the impact of a stronger renminbi on the rest of the world. Analysis by Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard, suggests that the prices of China’s exports to the US have been trending downwards in dollar terms since 2011. However, export prices were essentially flat last year and, given the subsequent rally in the renminbi, Mr Zhuang believed Chinese export prices would break out of this trend this year, rising by about 2 per cent in dollar terms. Given the current market panic about the prospect of higher inflation, and thus faster monetary tightening, in the US, the likely role of the rebounding renminbi in pushing prices higher should not discounted.

06 Feb 2018 - Citywire

India budget could kill equity investment

Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at TS Lombard said while it is a dampener on sentiment, the move is also being seen as the government trying to increase as much tax revenue as it can before the elections. ‘The budget is very much like that. [The government is] saying that we need to increase spending, we need to do things for farmers and low-income groups and we are going to get the money from those who pay taxes,’ Deveshwar said. 
 

06 Feb 2018 - South China Morning Post

Hang on, how come President Trump doesn’t make a big deal about the Japanese yen?

“Since November 2016, the Chinese currency has appreciated 9.5 per cent against the US dollar,” wrote TS Lombard’s chief China economist Bo Zhuang on Friday.

06 Feb 2018 - Financial Times

Wall Street rebounds, S&P 500 has best day since Nov 2016

“Stop losses were probably closer to market levels than usual, as nervous investors were keen to protect the downside, said Andrea Cicione, strategist at TS Lombard. “And hedge funds, who had the second highest exposure to equities since 2007, were probably forced to liquidate leveraged positions. Momentum-chasing algos probably did the rest.”

06 Feb 2018 - Citywire

Overnight Markets: US stocks halt selling spree to close higher

“We believe the selloff has mostly run its course and has created an opportunity to add risk,” said, Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard.

06 Feb 2018 - MarketWatch

Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average has suddenly become a hot mess

The market was overdue a pullback and rising yields provided the perfect excuse to trigger one. But a 4%+ daily drop like yesterday requires more than that. Technical factors helped accelerate the move, with several key support levels being broken on the day (including the 50d moving average). Stop losses were probably closer to market levels than usual, as nervous investors were keen to protect the downside. And hedge funds, who had the second highest exposure to equities since 2007, were probably forced to liquidate

02 Feb 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

See Four Hikes in 2018, Jobs Data Confirm Strength: Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist for TS Lombard, on today’s jobs data and economic outlook.

02 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Challenges on Inflation Policy, Tax Cut Loom as Powell Era Begins at Fed

“He understands what cheap money can do in the marketplace,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, a research firm. In 2006 and 2007, Fed officials were too slow to recognize bubbles by “narrowly viewing inflation as consumer prices only, and Powell won’t do that,” he said.

02 Feb 2018 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Gained 200,000 Jobs in January as Wages Picked Up

January was the 88th consecutive month of job creation, the longest streak of continuous hiring on record and a testament to the durability of the economic expansion that began in mid-2009, even though the pace of overall economic growth has lagged behind historical levels. “You’re slowly getting back to a more normally functioning economy,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

01 Feb 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Markets Should Focus on Strength of Non-Dollar

The big story for markets right now is less the declining strength of the dollar, and more the relative strength of non-dollar, according to Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard. He also discussed trade and Trump’s tax plans with Anna Edwards and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

31 Jan 2018 - Le Monde

Financial markets: "The orchestra continues to play" ...

The good news is that "we are not yet in a bubble". The bad news is that  "all of its ingredients are together". Andrea Cicione, who is in charge of strategy at TS Lombard, an investment research firm, sums up the dilemma of investors at the beginning of 2018.
 

31 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg TV

Economist Blitz Says Trump's Presidency Is 'Almost Bipolar'

Steven Blitz, TS Lombard chief U.S. economist, discusses President Donald Trump's presidency with Ramy Inocencio on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." 

30 Jan 2018 - Reuters

The markets, Draghi and the euro: "Heads I win, tails you lose"?

Indeed, European monetary officials are maintaining an accommodating policy, arguing that inflationary pressures are weak, but they risk transforming the solid recovery of the euro zone economy into overheating, which will further support the euro, warns Shweta Singh, economist at TS Lombard.

29 Jan 2018 - FT Alphaville

Alpha agenda, the new Cold War edition

McMaster nailed the key point by describing China and Russia as “revisionist powers”. This marks a clear break with post-Cold War US foreign policy, says Christopher Granville, TS Lombard.

24 Jan 2018 - Reuters

Closing snapshot: European shares end higher

Despite the prospect of an end of quantitative easing, rising oil prices and a stronger euro, Shweta Singh, director global macro at TS Lombard, reckons there might be "more positive surprises in store" for the euro area. And this is thanks to ease of financing, strong consumer confidence, increasing capex and a broad-based recovery which looks "increasingly self-sustaining" and leaves room for more upgrades. 

18 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Remains Hidden as Government Pursues $100 Billion

“Personal wealth is extremely private there,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. “It’s no one’s business." “In most societies, wealth gets exposed because people want to expose who’s behind it,” said TS Lombard’s Chenevix. “But if the politicians are the wealthy, if wealth and power are the same thing, that political pressure doesn’t exist.”

17 Jan 2018 - Reuters

Euro surge threatens profitable bond trades

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard estimates, that Japanese investors can get a yield pick up of 25 basis points for German bunds, 52 basis points for French debt and 165 basis points for Italian bonds respectively. “That is far more than what investing in Japanese bonds can give them,” Cicione said. Ten-year yields in Japan JP10YT=RR were trading around 9 basis points on Wednesday.

17 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Charles Dumas Says the ECB Is in a Very Difficult Position

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses monetary policy from the European Central Bank. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

17 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Saudi Arabia pumps $2 billion into Yemen’s central bank

The move is an attempt to set up a "functioning and legitimate" Yemeni government, Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC in a phone interview Wednesday. Chevenix added that while he anticipated the deposit to be a one-off in terms of its "very large" size, Yemen could expect "continued support" from Riyadh in the future

16 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Why 2018 will not be another perfect year for stocks

Companies can also spend to cut costs, which many have avoided since the financial crisis. But the U.S. tax overhaul could be the trigger. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard, believes margins will hold together as companies faced with wage pressure will spend on investment. Capital expenditure (capex) these days, often means buying equipment for automation, reducing the need for as many workers, removing higher wage demands. The President Donald Trump administration has another view that the tax bill will simply create "jobs, jobs, jobs."

16 Jan 2018 - CNBC

France’s Macron ‘the man to watch’ in Davos for clues on where Europe is headed

TS Lombard's Fenby noted Macron's "ambitious plans" to reform Europe and the euro zone, but said domestic politics and reforms were at the top of Macron's agenda. "Macron's main priority is, of course, at home where he has set a three-year horizon for reform to have its impact," he said. "He started with the labor laws but now moves into the trickier matter of cutting the budget deficit. He sensibly puts stress on job training to cut unemployment." "Macron has often been accused of being the typical 'Davos man,' so this is his opportunity to show how he is using the positive international press to attract investment and improve the lives of those who perhaps didn't vote for him," Fenby said.

16 Jan 2018 - Financial News

Five big currency bets hedge funds will make in 2018

“A year ago, [quantitative easing] was the major driver of asset markets, but now its influence is beginning to diminish other macro drivers will come to the fore. This means divergence and volatility will rise, which is good for hedge funds,” said Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard. He added that he expected hedge funds to trade more currencies this year.

11 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Why falling bond prices are traditionally seen as bad for stocks

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC Wednesday: "Rising yields, if they are accompanied by an accelerating economy, an accelerating income and stronger employment, they are not necessarily going to cut off mortgages and cut off growth." In his eyes, as long as the economy keeps growing, companies will have money to pay their employees and invest. Thus, the stock market shouldn't necessarily worry too much with how yields are moving.

11 Jan 2018 - Squawk Box CNBC

TS Lombard: Global financing conditions to remain supportive

Global liquidity will remain "substantially abundant" even as central banks tighten their policy, Shweta Singh, director of global macro at TS Lombard, said.

10 Jan 2018 - CNBC

2018 should be another happy year for US stocks

The rise of U.S. equities has coincided with increased household net worth and the “rise of the millennials,” Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said.

10 Jan 2018 - CNBC

Fed will follow the economy, economist says

Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the U.S. economy and government bonds.

08 Jan 2018 - CNBC

If you believe in the government, Chinese consumer stocks will do well this year: TS Lombard

Chinese consumer stocks should do "really well" in 2018, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Tuesday.

08 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Economists still gloomy on post-Brexit economy

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard: Feel about the same as 12 months ago. Both sides of the Leave/Remain argument grossly exaggerate the long-term difference.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard: More optimistic than 12 months ago. With a transitional deal increasingly likely the UK can at least avoid “falling off the cliff edge” and avoid reverting to WTO rules. The agreement between the UK and the EU on the Irish border and parliament’s vote to demand a meaningful vote on Brexit terms also point to [a] rising likelihood of a “softer” Brexit outcome.

06 Jan 2018 - MarketWatch

Is inflation ever coming back?

“Wages and prices generally lag real growth. Sustained real growth in 2018 should consequently shift wages to a higher trajectory,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist for T.S. Lombard, after December’s rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee. “Wages could in fact accelerate more quickly than markets are pricing in, considering how the economy is picking up with labor-market supply at its tightest point for this cycle. The prospect of a quick upturn in wages is reason enough for [an increase in the federal funds rate], even though measured inflation remains low.”

05 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

A major S&P ratio has a whiff of 1929. Is this a bubble yet?

The fear of missing out will be especially potent in keeping the momentum going. In a study of S&P 500 peaks from 1929 to 2007, TS Lombard showed that market returns tend to accelerate in the six months before the market rolls over. Missing out on the last year of each bull market would have cost investors on average 20 per cent of gains.

04 Jan 2018 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Minite Mystery Continues

Yesterday’s Fed minute release triggered a discussion about whether or not inflation is the main driver of whether the Fed raises and how fast says Steven Blitz, Chief US economist at TS Lombard. However, he told Daybreak Europe’s Guy Johnson and Anna Edwards that what markets should really be focusing on is the debate on hiking attributable to financial stability. He added that the role of power politics within the FOMC, once Yellen departs, adds to the mystery of Fed trajectory in the coming year.

04 Jan 2018 - The Guardian

Dow and FTSE hit record highs as global stock market surges continue

The chief risk for this year could also be a “melt-up,” according to economists at TS Lombard, who warn shares may rise out of kilter with reality before a sharp meltdown.

04 Jan 2018 - The Telegraph

U.S. growth and the 'euroboom' are catalysts for global upswing

Shweta Singh, head of global macro at TS Lombard, calls it a “euroboom” and points to strong surveys that indicate “its super-charged economic expansion [is] gaining further momentum”. “The broad-based strength reinforces our view that eurozone expansion is broadening out in terms of the growth drivers and that it bodes well for the sustainability and strength of economic expansion,” she says. “The recovery is spreading out geographically as well, reaching to the erstwhile weaker economies.”

03 Jan 2018 - Nikkei Asian Review

Will China suffer an economic shock in 2018?

The challenge is not short-term turmoil but the long-term costs of Xi's authoritarianism says Jonathan Fenby, Chairman China Team at TS Lombard.

03 Jan 2018 - Middle East Eye

US jury finds Turkish banker guilty of helping Iran dodge sanctions

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to avoid the Turkish lira and possibly depress the country's currency even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a MENA and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London

03 Jan 2018 - Wall Street Journal

Upstart Parties Write New Political Playbook in Europe

With a grand coalition, “the perception would be very ugly. When they inevitably do things you disapprove of, where do you go?” says Constantine Fraser, political analyst with TS Lombard. “If the mainstream parties are partners in the same government, opposition will go to the populists.”

02 Jan 2018 - The Telegraph

Can the global economic recovery be sustained?

Shweta Singh, head of global macro at TS Lombard, calls it a “euroboom” and points to strong surveys that indicate “its super-charged economic expansion [is] gaining further momentum”. “The broad-based strength reinforces our view that eurozone expansion is broadening out in terms of the growth drivers and that it bodes well for the sustainability and strength of economic expansion,” she says. “The recovery is spreading out geographically as well, reaching to the erstwhile weaker economies.”

02 Jan 2018 - CNBC

TS Lombard: Robust global growth softening China’s slowdown

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his economic outlook for the country in 2018.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Gloomy growth projections cloud hopes for UK economy

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist, TS Lombard About 1.5 per cent, vs. US and EA both 2-2.5 per cent. The UK needed to rebalance after the 6 per cent-of-GDP current account blowout under George Osborne, and the Brexit vote secured the necessary devaluation, cutting real consumer incomes and thus spending; but Brexit uncertainties are also inhibiting the capex response to the stronger competitiveness and profitability.
Michelle Lam, Senior Economist, TS Lombard I expect the UK to grow at 1.6 per cent in 2018. That is a tad faster than 2017, but still slower than the euro area and the US. Strong global growth, slower pace of austerity and an end to real income squeeze are reasons why I think growth of the UK economy will hold up next year.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

UK wage growth expected to increase but to remain modest

Charles Dumas, chief economist, TS Lombard We expect wage inflation to reach 3 per cent by end-2018, a mild acceleration in nominal terms, rather more in real terms. This assumes either a continued subdued public mood about Brexit or restrictive interest rate action by the Bank of England sooner than expected.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard I expect British workers will get a pay rise of 3 per cent in 2018. It is true that the relationship of wage inflation and unemployment (also known as the Phillips curve) has become less apparent due to globalisation and technological advancement. But I believe demand for hiring could remain rather resilient as firms hope to substitute labour for capital due to Brexit uncertainty. Meanwhile, slower migration from the EU, either due to Brexit or sterling depreciation, would keep the labour market tight. These factors should keep wage growth on a modest uptrend next year.

01 Jan 2018 - Financial Times

Economists divided over prospects of UK interest rate rise

There are also some indications that wage growth is picking up following a fall in unemployment to a 42-year low of 4.3 per cent: “As long as wage growth is improving, policy normalisation is the right thing to do,” said Michelle Lam of TS Lombard.
Michelle Lam, senior economist, TS Lombard I expect the BoE to hike once in next year, probably in August. If wage growth quickens faster than expected, say to 3 per cent in spring 2018, and holds up, the BoE could even raise interest rates twice, beginning from May. As long as wage growth is improving, policy normalisation is the right thing to do. The benefits of keeping policy loose are probably fairly limited. Right now, businesses are holding up capital expenditure because of Brexit uncertainty, not because of tight credit conditions or costs of financing.

 

28 Dec 2017 - IG Group

Are central banks following the wrong policy and is this a risk for 2018?

The world’s major central banks are pursuing the wrong policy and the obsession with a 2% inflation target is a mistake, according to Charles Dumas, TS Lombard chief economist. He tells IGTV that this could have repercussions in the years to come.

26 Dec 2017 - South China Morning Post

Why 2018 could be the year of the euro

The euro zone is experiencing a “super-charged economic expansion,” wrote Shweta Singh, director of global macro at London-based TS Lombard in mid-December. That expansion surely owes much to the ECB’s continuing attempts to kick-start inflation via its adherence to ultra-accommodative monetary policy settings. The flash euro zone composite purchasing managers’ index has “surged to 58.0, the highest since 2011,” TS Lombard wrote, with the manufacturing sector “leading the bounce, strengthening to 60.1 which is the most optimistic reading on record.” With the good economic news from the euro zone seemingly broad-based, why wouldn’t investors want a piece of that euro-denominated action?

26 Dec 2017 - CGTN

Multiple factors rally US stock markets in 2017

“Europe is turning, the emerging markets are turning, and a larger percentage of S&P revenue comes from global sources as opposed to say 10, 15, certainly 20, 25 years ago,” Steven Blitz, Chief Economist at TS Lombard said.

22 Dec 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Could the Capex fit?

Steven Blitz of TS Lombard points out that growth in the sales that companies generate per employee has been becalmed, almost totally static, throughout the post-crisis recovery.

22 Dec 2017 - Citywire

Foreign investors sceptical about Indian equities

‘The developments in China probably had some impact on this, as well as the domestic situation in India,’ said Jon Harrison, managing director for emerging market macro strategy at research firm TS Lombard. ‘Up until the middle of the year, India and China were moving in sync in a very positive emerging market sentiment globally. But from mid-year we had two things - GST implementation in India and in China, there was a strong improvement in global sentiment.’
However, TS Lombard’s director India research, Shumita Deveshwar, is optimistic on the market for next year despite political risks in the last year of Modi’s first term and the potential for oil prices to rear their ugly head. ‘These have been painful adjustments but the government has gone ahead and done them. That's why the mood is upbeat because maybe the government is going to do further reforms, especially if Modi gets re-elected in 2019,’ she said.

20 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Power, rivalry and missiles: The dangers of Saudi Arabia and Iran's 'unpredictable' conflict in Yemen

This is “the first time in a very long time” that there hasn’t been an “external arbiter in the Middle East” defining diplomatic relationships, Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, said.

20 Dec 2017 - Financial Times Shortview

Krona losing appeal as ‘carry trade’ currency

Oliver Brennan, at TS Lombard, thinks that the franc is more or less at its fundamental fair value. The yen and the krona are still below their fair value, deliberately weakened by central banks attempting to stave off deflation.

17 Dec 2017 - Neue Zürcher Zeitung

The normalization of monetary policy and its consequences

How long could the central banks, in particular the ECB, still control the development, asks Charles Dumas of TS Lombard. The true aim of the ECB's monetary policy is the exchange rate. But now the economy of the euro zone has developed so strongly and the foreign trade surplus has become so large that the central bank can do little against an appreciation of the euro. If it continues the excessively loose monetary policy, the euro zone's economy and foreign trade surplus continue to grow. But if it removes the stimulus, the bond yields rise. In both cases, the result is a higher euro exchange rate.

16 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Business investment on hot streak since Trump elected — and it may keep sizzling

“I think you are going to see more of an increase in capital spending for businesses,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

15 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Millennials spark shopping revolution that’s creating new winners, losers in retail land

The influence of millennials has been especially pronounced in the retail business. “Their fingerprints are increasingly everywhere,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at TS Lombard. “Millennials are the first generation in which internet shopping is ingrained in their DNA,” said Blitz, who’s been tracking the spending of baby boomers and millennials.  “The 32-year-old is the more aggressive acquire of assets,” Blitz noted. “They are filling up their closets. Baby boomers are emptying theirs.” Blitz says spending on discretionary goods — the things people want to buy — clearly show the shift under way. As millennials become a bigger part of the workforce, sales have risen for restaurants, sporting goods, books, hobby items and home furnishings, among other things. He counsels investors to put their money into the areas where “the wallet share is going.”

14 Dec 2017 - FastFT

Charts of the Year: Farewell to the world of one trade?

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, notes that correlations between markets accounted for less than half of the variability in developed-market bonds before quantitative easing began. The figure rose above 70 per cent this year. With QE poised to reach a tipping point late next year, Mr Brennan echoes many other investors and observers with his concern that bond-market volatility could resurface. Good news if you like break-out trading themes. Less good if you like dull predictability.

13 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Why Donald Trump's Jerusalem move might have made Russia a lot stronger

Putin has established Russia as perhaps the single-most important external actor in the Middle East," Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC on Wednesday. Granville agreed that Russia could assert itself as a key player in a regional peace process, although tensions are running so high between Israel and Palestine, let alone the wider Islamic world, that the process looks unlikely to see progress any time soon. "Russia is certainly better positioned to have constructive contacts with different countries and players on both sides of the barricades… wheras the U.S. has cast in its lot — lock, stock and barrel — with one side, broadly that of Saudi Arabia and Israel," he said. Granville said that while Russia was in a good position to deal with all parties involved, it might not want the difficult role of peacemaker, or "honest broker," in peace talks. "Russia is better placed to deal with everyone — although the role of an 'honest broker' in the peace process is an invidious and somewhat doomed role," he said.

13 Dec 2017 - Middle East Eye

Turkish police summon FBI official over US trial

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to avoid the Turkish lira and possibly depress the country's currency even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East, North African and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London.

12 Dec 2017 - South China Morning Post

The tide of US dollar funding may return in 2018, but at higher cost than previously

Oliver Brennan, Macro Strategist at TS Lombard in London, wrote that the “year-end turn has clearly increased Europeans’ demand for dollars,” but cautioned that “there are structural factors which mean the squeeze can be painful and that the basis swap may not bounce back all the way.” So a rising tide of US dollar liquidity might return in 2018, but access to that liquidity pool could be more expensive than previously. One of the structural factors highlighted by TS Lombard is the introduction in January of rules under the Basel III regulations that urge banks to hold collateral “against [over-the-counter] transactions including FX swaps [which] will on average increase the cost of FX swaps and therefore widen the euro basis.”

11 Dec 2017 - IG Group

TS Lombard: Another German Election Would Not Worry Markets

While Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is still seeking to form a coalition government, TS Lombard analyst, Constantine Fraser, says markets would take a minority government, or even a new election, in their stride.

09 Dec 2017 - Al Jazeera

Oman moves closer to a post-oil economy

Education is a critical part of this equation, as many citizens lack the type of technical knowledge needed to kick-start certain industries, noted Marcus Chenevix, a MENA analyst with the London-based economics consultancy TS Lombard. "Oman has a great deal of potential to diversify, probably in many ways more than its neighbours, especially in terms of tourism and in terms of the natural resources that Oman has available - things like access to an enormous fishery," he told Al Jazeera. However, the focus on areas such as manufacturing may be problematic, as the country "has no real institutional memory of having that kind of industry and it's very hard to develop that from scratch", Chenevix said.

07 Dec 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Why Merkel is a victim of her own success

Constantine Fraser, European political research analyst at TS Lombard, speaks about ongoing attempts to form the next German coalition government.

07 Dec 2017 - MarketWatch

Household wealth climbs $1.7 trillion on stock market, house price advances

“That the lion’s share of the gains boosting household net worth were in equities, and financial assets more generally, rather than in real estate is another reason why leverage remains low. Households historically borrow more off of improved home values than rising wealth from stocks and bonds – at least before 2008,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

07 Dec 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher; tech notches 3-day winning streak

"The House tax plan looks like a plan to us; the Senate version looks more like an agglomeration of bits and pieces designed to either capture needed votes (which it did) and/or be bargaining chips in negotiating with the House," Jonathan Fenby of TS Lombard said in a note this week.

05 Dec 2017 - CNBC

What's next in Yemen after the assassination of former president Saleh?

Marcus Chenevix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC that with Saleh dead, Iran was likely to be able to consolidate its influence in Yemen and that the war was not likely to end any time soon. "It's generally bad news for Yemen and probably good news for Iran," he said Tuesday. "I think we'll see the step-up of Iranian involvement in Yemen now and it will become very intense." TS Lombard's Chenevix said that Saudi Arabia could step up its bombing campaign against the Houthis but that Saleh's death, ultimately, had helped Iran because it simplified "the anti-Hadi cause" represented by Houthi rebels, taking away the forces loyal to Saleh. "Now that Saleh is temporarily out of the picture, unless we see his son try to come back (as Saleh's successor), the Iranian proxy is now the only opposition to Hadi. They are the sole patron to the anti-Hadi government," Chenevix said. "Saleh's death now pushes Houthi rebels into needing more Iranian support too," he added.

04 Dec 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Why Central Banks Continue to Put Asset Prices Out of Whack

Meanwhile, central-bank policy elsewhere, particularly in Japan, is in the mix. Since the Bank of Japan is holding yields down, Japanese investors need to look elsewhere for returns. But the cost to hedge against moves in the dollar has risen, making U.S. bonds less attractive, notes TS Lombard. European bonds may be benefiting from Japanese purchases, holding yields down but supporting the euro.

04 Dec 2017 - The Telegraph

US tax shake-up risks a dollar shortage and a global funding shock

Steve Blitz from TS Lombard said there will not be enough fiscal stimulus to move the needle, and it is far from clear what the dollar will do given that Europe and Japan are both rebounding. Complex hedging practices in the derivatives markets suggest that the euro will strengthen against the dollar next year. The tax holiday for US companies in 2005 did lead to a 15pc rise in the dollar index (DXY) over a fifteen month period but the circumstances were very different. Mr Blitz said it was a zero-tax holiday and it was only offered for a short window of time. The Republican package today is open-ended and entails a 14pc tax. It may be a damp squib.

01 Dec 2017 - Reuters

Sterling slips from two-month high on Irish border worries

“This week’s sterling bounce on reports that the UK has accepted a higher financial divorce settlement with the EU seems based on the false assumption that the way is now clear for the European Council on 14-15 December to authorise moving on to the next phase of the Brexit process,” said Christopher Granville, managing director at investment research firm TS Lombard. “To get to that next stage (the transitional deal), however, two further agreements are required. One – on citizens’ rights – looks relatively easy. The same cannot be said of the other – on the Irish border,” he added.

01 Dec 2017 - Middle East Eye

US-Iran sanctions trial may hamper Turkey's struggling economy

The publicity surrounding the case will likely lead investors to flee the Turkish lira and possibly send the country's currency down even further, said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East, North African and global political research analyst at TS Lombard in London. "This case has the capacity to seriously damage relations between Turkey and the US," said a recent report from TS Lombard. "From a US perspective, Turkey has been working to subvert American interests by secretly doing business with an enemy and is now insulting the American Judiciary and threatening American officials."  The impact on the lira has the potential to be swift, possibly pushing it past 4 lira to the US dollar, according the Lombard report.

30 Nov 2017 - The Epoch Times

The Cracks in China’s Economy

“New restrictions on the resale of property and fading support from shantytown redevelopment will keep weighing on housing sales. This spells further downside for residential investment growth,” wrote research firm TS Lombard, in a report.

27 Nov 2017 - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Stocks Mixed, Weighed Down by Energy Shares

Much of the recent selloff in Asian shares has come from companies that have already posted strong gains this year, said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, noting investors are questioning whether they are willing to pay up front for all the growth that these companies will deliver. "But we haven't seen anything for the moment that worries us," he said, noting fundamentally, the outlook for the economy and global equities remains sound and investors generally feel they can't afford to miss out on this market.

22 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Could Saudi Arabia and Iran really go to war?

Marcus Chevenix, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analyst at TS Lombard, told CNBC that Saudi Arabia's foreign policies, under the aegis of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, are hard to understand. "Domestically his (Mohammed bin Salman's) actions are radical but comprehensible, but on a foreign stage they're very hard to make sense of at all," Chevenix said. "His intervention in Yemen was rash yet we could at least see what he was trying to do. His intervention in Qatar was, yet again, maybe a little reckless maybe a little quick but it was certainly effective against Qatar. But in Lebanon it's really hard to see what this does for him at all." The analyst believes that it might have been a "reactive move" aimed at bringing down the coalition government of Lebanon to somehow destabilize the position of Hezbollah. He perceived it as a pushback against Iran by whatever means available, but suggested that war was not currently a possibility. "It's hard to see where Saudi Arabia could get to a position where its actions were intolerable to the Iranians. Iranian actions are already intolerable to Saudi Arabia, we know that, but the Saudi Arabians struggle to really find a way to aggravate Iran, that's why we're not looking at a hot war situation right now," he told CNBC.

21 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

US yield curve hits its flattest point since November 2007

Some analysts and investors are perturbed, and in a note to clients, TS Lombard said this new conundrum could have important implications for the outlook for markets in the coming year: “With the yield curve continuing to flatten, some investors are talking about the curve inverting in 2018, traditionally a leading recession signal. Others disagree, arguing we are on the brink of a dangerous 1994-style selloff. The resolution of this debate will have a powerful influence on a wide range of global asset prices.”

20 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Hard to understand Saudi crown prince's policy on Lebanon

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, discusses the intricacies of Saudi Arabia's relationship with its Middle Eastern neighbors.

20 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

The Modi magic behind India’s unstoppable rally

“There is a bit of a disconnect between what is happening on the ground and the hype being created in the markets right now,” says Shumita Deveshwar, director of India research at Trusted Sources. 

18 Nov 2017 - MarketWatch

Why this U.S. recession signal is probably throwing off a false alarm

Dario Perkins, a senior economist at TS Lombard, contends the Fed has effectively outsourced control of when to raise interest rates to bond markets. If so, he argues in a new report, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates as much or as many times as the central bank has indicated. “This is an odd situation because it suggests central banks are now ‘rate takers’ rather than ‘rate setters,’ ” he wrote. Only a sharp rise in inflation itself or inflation-adjusted bond yields, he added, will force the Fed to be more aggressive.

17 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

Doubts over tax cuts leave dollar drifting lower

“Some investors are talking about the curve inverting in 2018, traditionally a leading recession signal,” said Dario Perkins at TS Lombard. “Others disagree, arguing we are on the brink of a dangerous 1994-style sell-off. The resolution of this debate will have a powerful influence on a wide range of global asset prices.”

15 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Investors re-price political risk in Middle East bond market

“This is a repricing of systemic political risk. Just as we saw with Qatar, this will not be a short-term bounce in yields, but a long-term step up to a slightly higher risk bracket,” said Marcus Chenevix, regional analyst at TS Lombard.

12 Nov 2017 - The Street

Saudi Monarch's Purge Gets Cynical Nod From Foreign Investors

"For investors who don't know Saudi Arabia so well, this news will be a rude awakening to the fact that Saudi politics are actually quite unstable," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at the London-based economics consultancy TS Lombard. "But for investors who know the kingdom well, they'll see this as a positive sign for long-term reform." Those arrested, according to TS Lombard's Chenevix, primarily hail from the city of Jeddah on the Red Sea, a rival commercial and power center to the central capital of Riyadh. Prince Mohammed announced last month that the country planned to spend $500 billion -- roughly equivalent to Sweden's gross national product -- to erect a brand-new mega-city on the Red Sea.

09 Nov 2017 - Bloomberg Businessweek

How the ‘Warren Buffett of Arabia’ Built His Fortune

Demanding and conscious of appearances—including his standing on global rich lists—Alwaleed has had “something of a mixed reputation” outside the kingdom, says Marcus Chenevix, an analyst at investment research firm TS Lombard in London. “International investors see him as a man who talks a very big game and sometimes performed, but often didn’t,” he says. 

07 Nov 2017 - Expansion

The Ibex is the cheapest European Stock Exchange

TS Lombard, one of the leading independent analysis houses in the City, has been located on the first of these sides. In a note to investors, he recommends investors to bet on Spain, hoping that a next solution to the Catalan debate will allow Spanish parquet to gain ground lost during the last months in front of other places. TS Lombard predicts a strong rise until the end of the year of the Ibex 35, recovering the 13% that has been left in front of the Italian Stock Exchange since the summer. TS Lombard predicts that the Spanish index will reach 11,500 points, from the current 10,300 points.

"The Ibex is the cheapest exchange in the euro zone," says Oliver Brennan, market analyst at TS Lombard. The PER (number of times the price of the listed companies contains annual profits) is among the lowest in the developed countries, according to the report. "The weakness of recent months was caused by falls in six stocks, mainly banks, and is likely to recover now thanks to greater political clarity."

07 Nov 2017 - The Washington Post

Here’s what the Saudi royal purge means for investors

“The price of oil is spiking because of market dynamics, not because people are genuinely worried about the stability of Saudi Arabia,” said Marcus Chenevix, an analyst with TS Lombard. “What this is, is a turn back to absolute rule by one man and away from rule by princes. That is not such a bad idea. In an absolute monarchy that does not have constitutionally guaranteed rights, it is better for our business clients. There is a single ruler making single rules rather than answering to a whole class of princes.”

Chenevix, the TS Lombard analyst, said the corruption crackdown will definitely affect investment. “As we saw with the Qatar crisis, as the controversy comes to the surface, investors will realize the political risk of the Gulf coast states,” he said. Last summer, several counties including Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed trade and travel bans, alleging that Qatar was a supporter of terrorism. Chenevix said fixed-income investors will see a decline in Saudi bonds. “Your fixed-income assets in Saudi Arabia will be worth less,” he said, “because basically they have been underpricing political risk.”

06 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Saudi stocks hit by political purge, Gulf feels the chill

Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard called Alwaleed bin Talal’s arrest “hugely concerning”. “What it tells investors is that Saudi politics can’t be ignored. And that’s worrying because Saudi politics is a black box,” he said

06 Nov 2017 - Bloomberg

Spain’s Economy Wobbles as Catalonia Uncertainty Takes a Toll

Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London, said “political hullaballoo over Catalonia has taken its toll,” and the softer services activity tallies with reports about a “sharp drop in tourist-related activity.” 

06 Nov 2017 - BBC Business News

Saudi billionaire Alwaleed's arrest rattles investors

Investors are "extremely concerned by the weekend's events and we'll see further falls on Kingdom Holding in particular as it's very hard to define what the company is without Prince Alwaleed," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East analyst at TS Lombard.

06 Nov 2017 - Evening Standard

Three signs that markets are heading for a fall

Charles Dumas at TS Lombard asked this question: “With the S&P at 2580, which is more likely over the next 12 months: 3000 or 2160?” His answer was that there are at least three reasons in the short term why the risk of prices heading upwards to form a bubble were greater the downside bear risk of prices collapsing. One was that the world economy was strong, with Europe now adding to demand from the US and China to generate synchronised growth for the first time this century. The second was that commentators were, on the whole, still defensive, advancing reasons for the market to sell off despite there being buying power from investors. And the third was that the combination of very low underlying inflation rates in the US, Europe and Japan, coupled with central banks’ desire to push inflation to 2% was likely to brew a bubble.

06 Nov 2017 - Reuters

Reform or risk? Saudi Arabia investors try to read the runes

“This is about political instability, not about corruption,” said Marcus Chenevix, MENA analyst at TS Lombard, adding the arrest of Prince Alwaleed was “hugely concerning”. “What it tells investors is that Saudi politics can’t be ignored. And that’s worrying because Saudi politics is a black box.”

06 Nov 2017 - South China Morning Post

Why the Fed is likely to raise interest rates faster than you think

TS Lombard’s US Watch, penned on October 29 by their chief US economist Stephen Blitz and their head of strategy, Andrea Cicione, gave an evaluation of the direction of the US economy that should lead the Fed to “raise policy rates in December, March and June” pushing the Fed funds rate to 2 per cent.

06 Nov 2017 - Al Jazeera

Why Saudi arrests are long-term positive but seriously raise short-term risk

Marcus Chenevix, MENA Analyst, on why Saudi arrests are long-term positive but seriously raise short-term risk. (starting at 3.30min)

02 Nov 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Stocks Indexes Close Largely Unchanged After Tax Plan Is Unveiled

“A lot of what’s in this plan are bargaining positions; we have to see how the final bill morphs as time goes forward,” Steven Blitz, chief United States economist with TS Lombard, said. “There’s a lot of horse trading to come, so an overreaction doesn’t make a lot of sense.”

02 Nov 2017 - CNBC

Dow closes at record high in wild session after release of tax reform bill, Powell nomination

"Nothing is easy, however, and there is still tension over what tax provisions can be limited or eliminated to offset aggressive cuts in marginal corporate and personal rates. A balance will need to be struck," Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a note.

02 Nov 2017 - Middle East Eye

Oil giant Total questions Saudi reform drive

Any significant upward move in production could bring the prices even further down, according to a recent report from TS Lombard. “They can’t get any more money from oil,” said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at TS Lombard in London, in August. “Saudi is stuck with regard to oil production.”

01 Nov 2017 - The Independent

Although it might not feel like it, we're experiencing a global financial boom – and the bubble is due to burst soon

A survey of US investors last month showed that more than 60 per cent expected shares to be higher in a year’s time than they are now. A new paper by Charles Dumas at TS Lombard explains why. His argument is that there are three big drivers that make the upside more likely than the down. First there is the synchronised recovery noted above. Second, while most commentators are warning about a fall, investors have buying power – and had they listened to the warnings they would have lost out on a 25 per cent rise in share prices over the past two years. Third, the underlying inflation rate in the US, Europe and Japan is still very low. So the central bank commitment to pushing inflation up to 2 per cent will keep them pumping out the money that will fuel the boom.

01 Nov 2017 - Reuters

U.S. factory activity index eases off 13-1/2-year high

“Hiring is strong and evidence continues to accumulate that the economy is beginning to gain momentum heading into year-end,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

01 Nov 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: FOMZzzzzzzz

This comment from TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz captures the mood well: The nation’s growth rate has been upgraded to “solid” from moderate, underpinned by sustained “moderate” growth in household spending and acknowledgement again that business capex “has picked up”. This same phrase was used six weeks ago. Does this mean capex has picked up further? Based on the data, we would say yes. What then holds the Fed (Yellen) back with policy rates still set below core inflation? Simply put “. . . inflation for items other than food and energy remained soft. On a 12-month basis, both inflation measures have declined this year and are running below 2 percent.”  What then to make of all this? We knew going in the Fed wasn’t going to do anything, so no disappointment there. The upgrading of growth indicates to us that the Fed goes in December. Beyond that, the Yellen doctrine (holding back policy rates while waiting for inflation to rise even though its natural rate appears to be well below 2%) has all the markings of the same mistake Bernanke made in the last cycle – namely ignoring asset inflation because price inflation was well behaved. We could get more exercised about this if Yellen was going to continue as Fed Chair. She isn’t. For all intent and purposes, this makes the statement more swan song than road map -- especially if its Powell and therefore sitting in the room when the next couple of statements are crafted. Fed goes in December, March and June.

31 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Dumas Says China Growth Has Been Above Trend

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, and Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, discuss economic data from China and overall outlook for the country. They speak with Nejra Cehic on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Surveillance

Economist Dumas Questions Brexit's Market Significance

Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, discusses the market significance of Brexit. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

31 Oct 2017 - MarketWatch

Why the stock-market rally may be entering the anxiety-driven stage

For institutional investors, “missing the upside…could anger boards and trustees,” wrote Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note titled, “S&P 3,000?—a big upside for the big ‘risk.’”

31 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Jerome? OK, Jerome

John Authers’ Note today gives Charles Dumas credit for his brave and timely stock market call in March 2009 and highlights his bullish call on US stocks now.

"Charles Dumas of TS Lombard has a reputation as a contrarian, and as something of a bearish curmudgeon. But on Tuesday he produced a note clearly stating that he saw more risk of a bullish "melt-up" than of an imminent bear market. Headline: S&P 3,000 - a big upside the big 'risk'."

27 Oct 2017 - MarketWatch

GDP grows at stronger-than-forecast 3% rate in third quarter

“If the point of looking at Q3 data is to confirm whether the Fed is on track for a series of quarterly 25bp increases in policy rates, consider the point was made,” added Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard.

26 Oct 2017 - Citywire Asia

Financial reforms in China unlikely

China’s financial reforms are unlikely to be a priority in President Xi Jinping’s second five-year term, says London-based TS Lombard. The research firm noted in its latest China Watch report that despite the Chinese central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan’s call for a more market-oriented economy, China’s top leadership has learnt the lessons from poor execution of financial reforms back in 2015, which resulted in the country’s equity bubble burst. Chief emerging markets (EM) economist Lawrence Brainard said, ‘This has convinced China’s top leadership that more, not fewer, controls are needed at present.’

26 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

ECB Slows Asset Purchases as Draghi Heads for Stimulus Exit

“The door is left open to extend the asset-purchase program yet again,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “Though the likelihood of this happening for a fourth time looks rather lower now for various reasons, including the positive economic outlook.”

25 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

European Central Bank divided over wisdom of declaring end to QE

“The closer the ECB gets to stopping QE altogether, the more the market will focus on a rise in interest rates,” adds Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard, a research firm. “If that leads to more currency strength, as seems likely, then the downward pressure on core inflation creates a headache for the ECB.”

25 Oct 2017 - Monocle

Xi Jinping’s ambitions for himself and China's Communist party

Jonathan Fenby speaks on Monocle Radio: Are senior Republicans plotting to remove President Trump? We also discuss Xi Jinping’s ambitions for himself and China's Communist party and remember Hollywood's greatest speeches.

24 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

European Central Bank’s decision to reduce asset purchases not a true indicator of bloc’s economic health

“The longer the ECB takes to pare back its net asset purchases to zero, the further into the distance the subsequent steps in the normalisation process become”, as Ken Wattret, the managing director of global macro at investment research company TS Lombard, wrote this month.

19 Oct 2017 - Spectator

Xi Jinping is not a reformer but China’s most authoritarian leader since Mao

How the new emperor will use his second term — and perhaps a third to follow — to assert himself

19 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg Daybreak

Making the Case for Jay Powell as Next Fed Chair

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, and Bloomberg Intelligence's Yelena Shulyatyeva discuss the race to be next Fed chair and their outlook for policy moves next year. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." 

18 Oct 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Xi’s authority likely to stretch beyond second term

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, gives his view on Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the Communist Party Congress.

17 Oct 2017 - US News

If Precious Metals Rally, Then Pick Silver

"What has been propping up gold is geopolitics and Trump's tweets," says Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard in London.

13 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China is tackling its debt problem

According to the opinion of the economists of the research house TS Lombard, China has clearly entered a new cycle after the previous credit boom. For example, the growth of the money M2 this year has fallen below 10% for the first time in two decades. This economic-political change of times takes place against the backdrop of a stock market crash, which is only twenty months away, a massive capital inflow abroad and collapsing private investments.

11 Oct 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

China's stock exchanges under the spell of politics

"The markets should eat before the party congress," a researcher from TS Lombard said. The Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have shown performances in the past few months that were among the best in the world. Thus, the Hong Kong Hang Seng has increased by 3.3% in the previous week, which is a plus of 29% since the beginning of the year.

11 Oct 2017 - Evening Standard

Anthony Hilton: Pension funds must start thinking politically

Share prices are indeed high by historic measures but, as TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins noted in a recent podcast, interest rates are also now recognised as likely to be permanently lower that they were a decade or more ago. Financial markets have adjusted to this change and the demand for higher-yielding equities has increased and would have done anyway, regardless of what central banks are doing.

09 Oct 2017 - Bloomberg

Fenby Says Rajoy Will Not Give Way to Catalonia

Jonathan Fenby, director at TS Lombard, discusses the possibility of Catalonia's independence from Spain. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

09 Oct 2017 - Le Figaro

Catalonia: crucial day on Tuesday for independence

A purely symbolic statement or a simple call for new regional elections would strengthen the government of Mariano Rajoy. "If it ignores its own referendum, the dynamics behind the Catalan independence would be dramatically dwarfed," said TS Lombard. "But ultimately, he will be forced to continue the dynamics of confrontation and escalation" in which he finds himself.

06 Oct 2017 - CNBC

Why Italy, and not Spain, is the real risk that investors should be worrying about

"Beyond Catalonia, it is the Italian election we are concerned about," Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, told CNBC Thursday. Andrea underlined that the rising presence of populist parties is a risk for Italy's fiscal policy, given their policies to increase spending. 

05 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

Russian oligarch’s latest venture draws US$500m from CEFC’s sister company AnAn Group

“The Rosneft and EN+ deals are likely linked as a package ... it is a good opportunity for China to step up its involvement in and ownership of Russian natural resources,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, the chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners, who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

03 Oct 2017 - South China Morning Post

How global geopolitical forces play in a Chinese private firm’s favour in the purchase of key Russian jewel energy asset

Some analysts believe the 14 per cent stake in the world’s largest listed oil firm by output was a result of political consideration on Beijing’s part. “National oil companies had genuine concerns about getting closely involved with a company subject to United States’ sanctions, which could have backfired on them,” said Stephen O’Sullivan, chief executive of TS Lombard Research Partners who also leads emerging market energy research at the investment research firm.

02 Oct 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Optim-ISM

FT’s daily newsletter on the world of investment: John Authers quotes Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist, on how strong manufacturing numbers imply a more aggressive Fed. 

25 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

China’s state-owned business reform a step in the wrong direction

“Mixed ownership will do little to change Unicom’s behaviour,” analysts at TS Lombard noted of China’s second-largest telecom wireless company. “On the contrary, it is the latest sign of the Chinese Communist party extending its influence over China’s private sector. SOE reforms suck resources from the private sector.” Moreover, the heavy hand of Beijing — and its obsession with control — is undermining solid economic performance as well as threatening financial stability.

17 Sep 2017 - CNBC

South Africa economy bruised but not broken amid political turmoil and downgrade

With inflation on its way down, Jon Harrison, managing director and head of emerging market macro strategy at London-based TS Lombard, says that "Political tensions remain a powerful driver of investor sentiment. We are relatively more positive on the local debt markets than on equities."

14 Sep 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Zapad symbolizes return to cold war style standoff: Trusted...

Christopher Granville, MD of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, takes a look at the geopolitical tension rising between Russia and the Baltic states.

11 Sep 2017 - MarketWatch

10-year Treasury yield climb most in 7 weeks as hurricane, North Korea fears ease

“There is no way the Fed is going to raise policy rates to flatten or invert the curve. This is one reason why, we believe, the Fed pulled forward the timing of its balance sheet reduction from December to September. In doing so, the Fed hopes that some increase in 10-year real yields will create the space for it to continue to raise the funds rate,” wrote analysts at TS Lombard led by Chief U.S. Economist Steven Blitz, in a Saturday research note.

11 Sep 2017 - CNBC

S&P 500 rallies to record close as Irma concerns decline; Dow jumps more than 250 points

"The [Trump] administration faces a battle to win UN Security Council approval of its call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade of the country," said Jonathan Fenby at TS Lombard. "Russia is hostile, calling new sanctions 'premature.' China's foreign minister has suggested it agrees more measures are needed but sources in Beijing say the leadership still opposes cutting off oil supplies."

10 Sep 2017 - Middle East Eye

Investor love affair with Turkey may end in tears

Investors are flocking to Turkey's rapidly growing economy, but some experts say it may not last.

07 Sep 2017 - CNBC

In 2017, Italy has made ‘significant progress’ in banking system...

Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard, takes a look at the performance of European banks as of late, with added comment on Italy and bond markets.

07 Sep 2017 - The Telegraph

Frankfurt wins post-Brexit prize to become EU financial centre, much to the horror of France

Frankfurt is sweeping aside rivals to become the dominant financial centre of the European Union after Brexit, a triumph that threatens to entrench German hegemony and profoundly upset the EU's internal balance of power.

07 Sep 2017 - Financial Times

Draghi faces another test to taper without tantrums

Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard, a research firm, said: Inflation is still rather low, so the ECB needs to make clear that the hurdle to embark on interest rate rises is much higher than the hurdle to tapering.

06 Sep 2017 - CNBC

Stocks close higher after Trump signals support for 3-month debt limit extension

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi "seem committed to tightening, both quantitatively and via interest rates, but monetary conditions will remain fairly stimulative so long as inflation does not become a problem," said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, in a note to clients.

06 Sep 2017 - Fortune

Germany Tells the ECB It’s Time to Start Raising Interest Rates

With the Federal Reserve having stopped its purchases and raised interest rates, global markets are now depending only on the ECB and Bank of Japan for continuing support. Both of those central banks are reluctant to exit such "unconventional" policy measures while inflation is still running below target. Charles Dumas, an analyst with TS Lombard in London, said in a note Wednesday that "serious concerns could be even further off" for the ECB than they are for the Fed, whose top officials are now expressing reservations about any further interest rate hikes in the U.S. this year.

01 Sep 2017 - Investment & Pensions Europe

EM debt: Experts clash over debt dynamics

Opinions differ sharply on the sustainability of emerging market debt. Industry expert, Lawrence Brainard, chief emerging markets economist, says the quality of debt has increased and assets have risen faster than debt.

01 Sep 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Expect Stronger Wage Growth Next Year: TS Lombard’s Blitz

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on jobs numbers and wages

31 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Manufacturing ‘unexpectedly strong’ in China

Strong Chinese factory PMI data has a "political context" as the Communist Party gets ready for its party conference in the fall, Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, said.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

The European periphery is back from the brink. Where should you invest?

Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece have come a long way since the 2008 financial crisis. They are now often cited as examples of where painful reforms led to economic growth. Given their turnaround, CNBC asked economists and market strategists which of these countries is the best option for investments.

30 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Euro zone countries could be in danger if euro continues to rise, economist says

Countries like Portugal and Spain owe much of their recovery to exports. In Spain alone, exports have been higher than those of Germany, France and Italy (the biggest EU economies) since last year, according to data collected by TS Lombard.

28 Aug 2017 - Citywire Asia

China's debt engine runs at slow pace

‘Households have taken up the slack and become the major driver of credit growth,’ said Michelle Lam, senior economist at TS Lombard. The Chinese economic condition has proved resilient due to reflation and strong external demand, ‘but the mini-cycle has peaked, as property tightening takes its toll, Beijing’s resolve to press ahead with deleveraging will be tested’.

25 Aug 2017 - The Epoch Times

The State of the Global Economy

The US and global economies are doing fine, but not everything is as good as it looks.

25 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi's Drama-Free Jackson Hole Message Reaffirms Slow QE Exit

“As always seemed likely, this is no 2014 repeat -- we have to wait another fortnight for the Governing Council to hammer out an agreement on the next steps,” said Ken Wattret, an economist at TS Lombard in London. “No expression of concern about currency strength is a green light for the euro to move higher, irrespective of the agenda for the event.”

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

No fireworks from Draghi in the immediate future

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, reacts to a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

23 Aug 2017 - CNBC Street Signs

Medium term trend of euro appreciation

Ken Wattret, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, weighs in on the euro zone economy.

22 Aug 2017 - Finanz und Wirtschaft

The "smart money" bets on the euro

Andrea Cicione, Head of Macro Strategy, assesses the situation of European Central Bank and the expected monetary policy normalization which suggest a risk that the euro will go through a consolidation phase.

17 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Leery of Ending Stimulus, Worried It Will Buoy Euro

Though the minutes signaled a central bank that was moving slowly, it was clear that at some point policy would change says Ken Wattret.

16 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Eurozone Growth Spreads, Helped by Dutch, Italian Economies

The Italian economy, which admittedly is still one of the weakest, is finally showing signs of life says Shweta Singh

15 Aug 2017 - CGTN

Wall Street's winning streak: Stocks surge and hit record highs

2017 have seen surging U.S. stocks, with a marked number of record highs for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But what's behind the increase? A tweeting President or company performance? 

14 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Trump aides seek to placate China ahead of trade move

China likely to exercise some restraint in the short term in the face of Mr Trump’s trade move, with Beijing inclined to wait to see the results of any investigation - says Bo Zhuang, Chief China Economist

14 Aug 2017 - Reuters

Trump orders probe of China's intellectual property practices

Jonathan Fenby says China is not interested in a short-term trade fix with the United States and will resist "attempts to tie it down."

13 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Mario Draghi faces easing dilemma as strong euro sparks concern

Even without QE, monetary policy is going to remain extremely accommodative for a long time - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

13 Aug 2017 - Bloomberg Markets

Draghi Unfazed About the Strength of the Euro

Current market moves are reminiscent of those observed in the run-up to QE. The euro tumbled in the second half of 2014 in anticipation of large-scale bond buying, only to stabilize and even strengthen once the central bank started the program. - says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe Economist

12 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Russia’s recovering economy fears US sanctions chill

Christopher Granville, MD EMEA research comments on the rising investment threatened by uncertainty over measures approved by Donald Trump

11 Aug 2017 - The Monocle

China and North Korea

China experts Jonathan Fenby discuss whether Beijing can solve the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

11 Aug 2017 - The Street

There Could Be a Powerful Force About to Rip Through the Stock Market That Rattles Nerves

"Markets go up and down, the "trend" can push valuations too far in one direction or the other and, when they do, sharp corrections ensue," TS Lombard managing director Steven Blitz said of Friday's swift downdraft in the tech space. "Tech is just another of many sectors, albeit a high profile one because of the names in the sector, subject to the fear and greed of market participants. In other words, Friday's downswing is probably nothing more meaningful than a re-balancing of market sentiment."

09 Aug 2017 - The Spectator

Fire and Fury: Could this war of words turn ugly?

Jonathan Fenby comments on the tensions between North Korea and US on The Spectator Podcast.

08 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Beijing’s chicanery leaves western business guessing

Jonathan Fenby traces the crackdown back to the dramatic abduction of Xiao Jianhua, head of the Tomorrow Group investment company, during the Chinese new year.

07 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow notches 9th straight record close

 "There is still juice left for equity investors," says Andrea Cicione, Head of Strategy

07 Aug 2017 - MarketWatch

Dollar struggles to extend post-jobs-report glow

Recent euro strength has prompted some investors to question whether the European Central Bank’s tapering intentions could be curtailed. This is understandable given the scale and speed of the euro’s appreciation (though we have long been flagging the likelihood of both), says Ken Wattret, Chief Europe economist at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Amazon economy helps explain paradoxes facing investors

John Authers quotes Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist, on the impact of ecommerce

04 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Wall St weighs in on US jobs, wages

Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist at TS Lombard, says while the improvement in wages was rooted in low wage jobs that is unlikely to prompt the Fed to stray from the plans.

04 Aug 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the July Employment Report: ‘A Banner Jobs Report’

“The great deceleration in hiring that began at the beginning of 2015 and ran through 2016 is now done with, with monthly private sector job gains settling in at an average of 180,000. Looking through the numbers we see much of the resurgence is in low wage jobs. Some 45% of the July increase was in health care and restaurants. And with that, aggregate wage growth slows.” - Steve Blitz, TS Lombard

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

China doesn't do bilateral diplomacy

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, discusses the Trump administration's attitude towards the Middle Kingdom.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Asian leaders see Trump as a 'very weak' president

"The evaluation of Trump, which certainly I get from a lot of Asians and speaking to Chinese people, is that actually they see Trump as a very weak President," Jonathan Fenby, China Chairman at TS Lombard.

04 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Macron actually getting things done

Jonathan Fenby, China chairman at TS Lombard, says that French President Emmanuel Macron has "got to deliver at home in order to show the Germans that he's serious."

01 Aug 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone economy grows at fastest pace since debt crisis

“Growth has not been concentrated in the traditional hotspots and economies that have traditionally not done so well are also joining in the recovery” says Ken Wattret, Managing Director of Global Macroeconomics at TS Lombard.

01 Aug 2017 - CNBC

Dow approaches 22,000, closes at a record high

"Figures on employment and capital spending over the coming month will give us a better sense of what second-quarter profits really mean - beyond whether they beat Wall Street estimates, a dubious distinction at best," Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard,

26 Jul 2017 - Citywire

Ambitious 'J-nomics' will take time to deliver: analysts

‘It’s a very ambitious plan and president Moon doesn’t have a majority [in the parliament] so as with the supplementary budget, which took some time for him to pass, implementation won’t be smooth sailing,’ Konstantinos Venetis, Senior Economist at TS Lombard told Citywire Asia.

26 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Stocks are ignoring U.S. political uncertainty, but the dollar isn’t

“After six months of Trump, stocks are being made great again, but Russiagate is weighing on the dollar and yields,” wrote Oliver Brennan, Senior Macro Strategist at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Gold settles lower, ending 6-session streak of gains

The committee’s Wednesday communication is not expected to convey new policy directives but it may relay a shift in how current economic data fit into the Fed’s view of the world,” said Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. economist and Managing Director of Global Macro investing, at TS Lombard

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Zloty at risk of lingering political angst, say analysts

Poland’s economic fundamentals remained strong but the reactions of rating agencies this autumn to any further changes to the country’s institutions “will be worth watching”.

24 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: Uberfication

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that the shifts involved in the rise of the sharing economy could be more important. The rise of the sharing economy is not just about hip millennials; it is also linked to despair in the Rust Belt, and it will complicate the job of monetary policy well into the future.

20 Jul 2017 - The Epoch Times

The ‘Silk Road’ Verdict

Why China's massive infrastructure plan won't measure up to economic reality. While a new airport or railway can be built in just a few years, amassing the human and institutional capital needed for them to operate efficiently and contribute to economic and social progress is a slower process,

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

U.S. labor market strengthening; mid-Atlantic manufacturing slows

Barring a collapse in general confidence, capital spending plans should start turning into actual expenditure in the coming months," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB expected to dial back on hawkish Sintra comments

ECB president Mario Draghi is expected to dial back on his hawkish comments from Sintra, says Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard.

20 Jul 2017 - CNBC

ECB sends a dovish message but markets don't buy it

Oliver Brennan, senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, agreed that the tapering could be expected at an average pace of $10 billion per meeting, which would enable its completion in the third quarter of next year.

20 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Strong Eurozone Growth Shows Payoff of ECB Stimulus

Data to be released over the coming weeks - including second-quarter growth figures on Aug. 16 - are likely to be “remarkable,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London. “The news flow will be a strong reinforcement of the case that something needs to be done” by the ECB, Mr. Wattret said.

19 Jul 2017 - Financial Times

‘Cold feet’: Euro dips from 14-month high ahead of ECB meeting

Draghi knows he will be deluged with questions about his references to ‘reflation’, what motivated them and what they imply for policy so he should be well prepared. Still, we do not expect to hear anything in the statement or the Q&A which fundamentally challenges the view that a tapering announcement is drawing near.

14 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

Consumers aren’t spending, and surging rent might be to blame

Steve Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist for TS Lombard, shows that as of early 2017, wage income as a share of rent is at an all-time high. 

12 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

Lombard's Blitz Sees Fed Chasing Labor Market Fantasy

TS Lombard's Chief US Economist Steve Blitz weighs inon Fed policy. He speaks on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

10 Jul 2017 - Pulse News

Bank of Japan staying the lonely course

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: Like other major central banks, the BoJ has recently bumped up its growth forecasts and lowered its inflation estimates for this year and next. But while his peers at the Fed and (slowly but surely) the ECB have embarked on the path of policy normalisation, Governor Kuroda is nowhere near that point. 

08 Jul 2017 - Reuters

As Qatar row smolders, world markets tot up dependence on Gulf petrodollars

"One should expect Gulf governments to sell liquid assets when they have to. I am sure the Qataris will be moving some of their less liquid assets into more liquid ones as a form of insurance, i.e. real estate into equities," said Marcus Chenevix, a Middle East economist at consultancy TS Lombard.

07 Jul 2017 - Bloomberg

No bad news in the Trump June jobs report

“June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Reuters

U.S. job growth accelerates in June, wages continue to lag

"Wage inflation was never going to be a 2017 event. You get paid this year based on how your firm did last year and last year was a slow year for GDP and, more importantly, earnings," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. "Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries to push up the averages."

07 Jul 2017 - MarketWatch

U.S. adds 222,000 jobs in June hiring surge

Wages are accelerating in some industries, just not enough industries, wrote Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard

07 Jul 2017 - Wall Street Journal

Economists React to the June Jobs Report: ‘Doing Well Enough’

"June employment data and the attendant upward revisions confirm what a lot of recent ‘soft’ data have been indicating—the economy is doing well enough.” - Steven Blitz, TS Lombard.

06 Jul 2017

ECB Considered Dropping a QE Guarantee at June Meeting

Minutes indicate central bank policy makers’ increasing confidence in the eurozone economy: "It’s evolution, not revolution, but the direction of travel is clear,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

27 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

The Draghi Effect: Reflation focus boosts the euro, hits bonds

Analyst Ken Wattret at TS Lombard said: The comments look a bit more balanced than the market reaction would suggest, with the core inflation criteria not yet achieved. Still, use of the term ‘reflationary’ has probably captured the markets’ attention and rightly shaken out some of the complacency.

26 Jun 2017 - CNBC

This is why the ECB purchases corporate bonds

These 'non-standard policies' have helped reduce sovereign and credit risk, curtail funding fragmentation, improve liquidity and increase asset prices. One of the most powerful channels through which QE has worked is a weaker currency, which has boosted the competitiveness of the euro zone," Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC

21 Jun 2017 - The Telegraph

China stocks go mainstream with long-awaited entry into MSCI indices

Michelle Lam, a Hong Kong-based senior economist for TS Lombard, said for now the decision represented more of a "stick and carrot process" for China, which is growing at at least 5pc a year. "It's not going to be a game changer in the near term," she said, reiterating that the 'carrot' in this instance is more inclusion if China follows through with reforms and changes.

21 Jun 2017 - Citywire

Household debt raises risks for Aussie banks

‘In Australia, it hasn’t been a rosy picture since the mining boom went bust. Wages are growing at a slow pace and consumption is being funded increasingly through savings. So the buffer consumers have to finance their mortgages is much, much smaller,’ Konstantinos Venetis, senior economist at TS Lombard said in an interview.

19 Jun 2017 - Newsweek

Putin could 'crack' NATO under Trump

Russia is already drawing a wedge between America and its closest NATO allies in other ways. Germany and the European Union have been disturbed by new congressional sanctions against Russia for interfering in the 2016 election, according to Jonathan Fenby, managing director of European political research at the investment research firm TS Lombard. Russian energy companies building the Nord Stream 2 gas export pipeline to Europe, however, are targeted in the new sanctions bill. This is “the latest of a series of developments that augur ill for trans-Atlantic relations,” wrote Fenby in a research letter to investors Sunday. “Germany and Austria, whose companies are investing in the pipeline, criticized the Senate vote for adding a ‘new and very negative quality in European-American relations.’” Fenby said. The new sanctions are just “another brick in the wall of European reaction to Trump’s criticism of European defence spending,” Fenby wrote.

16 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Authers’ Note: another clash

Steve Blitz of TS Lombard suggests that Janet Yellen of the Fed is chasing a “great white whale” in fighting inflation, when there is little evidence that it exists. He points out that inflation tends to follow increases in real spending, which at present seems to be flat. 

16 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

Blitz: Market is Underestimating Potential ECB Tightening

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, discusses the Fed’s May interest rate rise and Europe’s improving economy, with more construction spending in Germany. When it comes to Britain’s exit from the European Union, he tells Daybreak Europe’s Caroline Hepker and Markus Karlsson he is skeptical about the stance of U.K. negotiators who seem to think they can dictate the terms of Brexit.

14 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Russian shares near 1-year low on US sanctions risk, oil, rouble

"The latest oil price action is ominous for Russian equities and the rouble's de-coupling from oil compounds the blow for Russian oil stocks," Christopher Granville at TS Lombard wrote, predicting the pace of Russian rate cuts to slow to 25 bps. Rouble strength means investors should be overweight on retail-oriented domestic stocks while selling export-oriented ones, especially those in oil and gas.

12 Jun 2017 - Neue Zurcher Zeitung

Tough change of course

The ECB will be confronted with increasing technical problems and shortcomings. Shweta Singh from TS Lombard points to the declining supply of securities still obtainable under the existing rules. This is mainly the case with federal bonds, since Germany does not make any new debts. The extent to which the euro system has reached the maximum share of debt issued by a state can not be determined exactly. Singh, however, like Picard's Frederik Ducrozet, is convinced that the Euro system will not be able to continue its purchases without changing the rules for a long time.

09 Jun 2017 - Reuters

Wall St higher as investors shrug off UK election impact

Steve Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard in New York, said: "The UK election is a UK event and there is no direct economic impact from that on the U.S. economy. Investors are more concerned about Trump and the perception of what he can and can't get passed legislatively in regards to tax reform. The last thing the Republicans want to do is head to the mid-term election in 2018 without any major legislative accomplishments."

08 Jun 2017 - Bloomberg Radio

ECB Doesn’t have Credibility But Buying Power

What the ECB lacks in credibility it makes up for in tremendous buying power, says Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard. He also told Daybreak Europe’s Anna Edwards and Guy Johson that he is not surprised that the BOJ is looking to exit its monetary policy.

08 Jun 2017 - Wall Street Journal

ECB Drops Reference to Future Interest-Rate Cut

The size of the ECB’s stimulus “looks increasingly out of line with the economic backdrop,” said Ken Wattret, an economist with TS Lombard in London.

05 Jun 2017 - Financial Times

Eurozone recovery becomes surprise economic story of 2017

Economists say the fall in May’s inflation rate to 1.4 per cent, from 1.9 per cent in April, removed any immediate pressure on the ECB to act. Ken Wattret, economist at TS Lombard said: “The traditional relationships between growth and inflation seems to have broken down. I can imagine the ECB sounding a little more confident on growth... but on the inflation side they will sound pretty cautious.”

02 Jun 2017 - Pulse News

OPEC back to square one

By senior economist Konstantinos Venetis: The oil market has come under strain over the last few weeks, with selling pressure intensifying in May amid a spike in volatility. Earlier this month crude prices dropped to the bottom of their six-month range, erasing virtually all the gains recorded since OPEC’s Vienna deal, before stabilising around $50. What is the broader macro message from this price action? Why now? And what comes next? 

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