China’s dramatic growth in gas demand in 2017 and 2018, surpassing all expectations, may be coming to an end, with widespread implications for the global gas market and a number of energy companies around the world developing gas export projects with an eye to the Chinese market.
As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets have become perverse and unachievable. This leaves fiscal policy as the only potent tool in the next slowdown.
Shweta Singh assesses how Mario Draghi has left ECB bank policy and concludes that Christine Lagarde will have very few policy options available.
Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place.
In his Daily Note of 23rd July, Constantine Fraser argues that markets and commentators ae asking the wrong question about Boris Johnson’s appointment as Conservative party leader and Prime Minister and what it means in terms of a hard Brexit. He writes:
Shweta Singh provides analysis of Mario Draghi’s speech at Sintra on 18t June.
Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.
Charles Dumas and Rory Green assess the decline in trade volumes. They support a long-running theme, specifically that trade war is shifting supply chains and accelerating the world splitting into trade blocs.
In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.
Eleanor Olcott has gone into the fine detail of Chinese and US protectionist legislation.
Chinese Q1 GDP was the weakest in decades on the offical reading. The TS Lombard recalculation shows it to be even weaker at 5.2% yoy. Rory Green writes:
EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations.
As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.
Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA.
Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.
This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott. Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.
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