In his Daily Note of 23rd July, Constantine Fraser argues that markets and commentators ae asking the wrong question about Boris Johnson’s appointment as Conservative party leader and Prime Minister and what it means in terms of a hard Brexit. He writes:
Shweta Singh provides analysis of Mario Draghi’s speech at Sintra on 18t June.
Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.
Charles Dumas and Rory Green assess the decline in trade volumes. They support a long-running theme, specifically that trade war is shifting supply chains and accelerating the world splitting into trade blocs.
In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.
Eleanor Olcott has gone into the fine detail of Chinese and US protectionist legislation.
Chinese Q1 GDP was the weakest in decades on the offical reading. The TS Lombard recalculation shows it to be even weaker at 5.2% yoy. Rory Green writes:
EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations.
As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.
Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA.
Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.
This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott. Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.
Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.
If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect between the Fed continuing to put out these forecasts and the evolving economic outlook.
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