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Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.


EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Our latest thoughts from my colleague Larry Brainard re the EM recent washout. Recent EM market weakness is not a broader retrenchment in EM assets, but risks of contagion from the Argentine and Turkish crises are growing; ​US-China trade conflic...

Argentina Emerging Markets Turkey US China Trade


Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

11 May 2018 - Martin Shenfield

As President Trump’s trade delegation returns from Beijing from preliminary discussions, we question how and when the US and China will be able to resolve their trade and economic disputes. Given not only the gulf that lies between the ultimate object...

Donald Trump Made in China 2025 Protectionism Trade War US China Trade



FOMC’s return to realism

25 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex  leading to an extended cycle eventuates.

The attempt to charac...

Bond Yields Fed FOMC Inflation Interest Rates Rate Hikes Unemployment US


Is Everyone Wrong About the Cycle?

26 Apr 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Whilst volatility remains elevated & equity markets stuck in choppy trendless trading with ongoing negative breadth divergence, my colleague Dario Perkins revisits his thesis from last year that productivity growth & hence potential GDP has been und...

Economic growth Late cycle Macroeconomics US Productivity


The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

27 Mar 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Oliver Brennan digs deeper into recent moves across key money market spreads & concludes that the overall recent widening is not a precursor to a major macro and/or market crunch.

Sudden sharp changes in these spreads have histori...

Banking BoJ ECB Fed Financial Markets FOMC Interest Rates LIBOR Oliver Brennan Quantitative tightening Yield curve


The Dull 2018 Consensus

12 Feb 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Equity markets are arguably getting a little frothy short term & some sort of consolidation would be healthy, but we re-iterate that we are not yet in a full scale bubble; although ultimately before the music stops we expect to have fully experienced on...

Bubble Central Banks Dario Perkins Equity Markets Inflation Yield curve


Eurodollar Dangers

25 Jan 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Following on from our long standing above consensus optimism about both the sustainability of the synchronised global growth cycle & markets more generally, my colleague Dario Perkins considers below the risks to this rosy scenario of higher real yields...

Bubble Dario Perkins Economic cycle Financial markets FOMC Global growth Liquidity crisis Market Liquidity Quantitative tightening Real yields USD


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