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Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.



Global Fractures: Big bond crash

Global Fractures: Big bond crash

27 Nov 2019 - Dario Perkins
  • History offers clues about how today’s secular stagnation might end
  • Most benign outcome involves tech diffusion or... income redistribution
  • This Daily Note is the fourth of seven in our “Global Fractures” series
#Dario Perkins #Global Fractures #Globalization #Jobs #Populism #Productivity

China gas slowdown - why is it happening?

China gas slowdown - why is it happening?

01 Nov 2019 - Stephen OSullivan

China’s dramatic growth in gas demand in 2017 and 2018, surpassing all expectations, may be coming to an end, with widespread implications for the global gas market and a number of energy companies around the world developing gas export projects with an eye to the Chinese market.

#China Gas #Coal #Energy #Energy Security #Gas market #LNG #Stephen OSullivan

The Folly Of Inflation Targets

The Folly Of Inflation Targets

31 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas

As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets have become perverse and unachievable. This leaves fiscal policy as the only potent tool in the next slowdown.

#bond yields #Central Banks #Charles Dumas #Euro crisis #Fiscal policy #Global Fractures #Inflation #Interest rates #Monetary Policy #Populism #Steven Blitz #Trade War #wages

Draghi: Veni, vidi, QE, finit

Draghi: Veni, vidi, QE, finit

24 Oct 2019 - Shweta Singh

Shweta Singh assesses how Mario Draghi has left ECB bank policy and concludes that Christine Lagarde will have very few policy options available.

#Draghi #ECB #Lagarde #QE #Shweta Singh #TLTRO

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place.

#Balance Sheets #Debt #Equity Markets #Fed #Interest rates #Liquidity #Recession #Repo market #Steven Blitz

Boris: The Key Question

Boris: The Key Question

23 Jul 2019 - Constantine Fraser

In his Daily Note of 23rd July, Constantine Fraser argues that markets and commentators ae asking the wrong question about Boris Johnson’s appointment as Conservative party leader and Prime Minister and what it means in terms of a hard Brexit. He writes:

#Boris Johnson #Brexit #Constantine Fraser #UK

Central Bank Dethroning

Central Bank Dethroning

01 Jul 2019 - Christopher Granville

In Global Political Drivers published on 1st July, Christopher Granville offers a thought-leadership piece on the end of the era of DM central bank independence. He writes:

#BoE #Central Banks #Christopher Granville #ECB #Fed #Trade

How big is the Draghi bazooka?

How big is the Draghi bazooka?

25 Jun 2019 - Shweta Singh

Shweta Singh provides analysis of Mario Draghi’s speech at Sintra on 18t June.

#Draghi #ECB #Eurozone #Inflation #Monetary Policy #QE #Shweta Singh

Equities vs Bonds

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities. 

#Bond Markets #Dario Perkins #Equities #Interest rates #Recession #Stocks #US Inversion #Yield curve

China’s past its low point

China’s past its low point

10 Jun 2019 - Charles Dumas

Charles Dumas and Rory Green assess the decline in trade volumes. They support a long-running theme, specifically that trade war is shifting supply chains and accelerating the world splitting into trade blocs.

#ASEAN #Charles Dumas #China #Rory green #Tariffs #Trade #Trade War

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

28 May 2019 - Jon Harrison

In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.

#China #EM Watch #Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #PMI #Tariff #Tech #Trade War #US Technology #Xi Jinping

Chipping away at technology

Chipping away at technology

24 May 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Eleanor Olcott has gone into the fine detail of Chinese and US protectionist legislation.

#5G #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Tech #Technology #Trade War

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

17 Apr 2019 - Rory Green

Chinese Q1 GDP was the weakest in decades on the offical reading. The TS Lombard recalculation shows it to be even weaker at 5.2% yoy. Rory Green writes:

#China #Exports #GDP #Import #Rory Green #Trade War

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield
  • Global macro data to disappoint
  • Deflationary pressures rebuilding
  • Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response
  • EM equities due further consolidation/correction
#Central Banks #Emerging Markets #Equities #Fed #Martin Shenfield #Trade #Yield curve

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

27 Mar 2019 - Jon Harrison

EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations.

#China #Emerging Markets #Equities #Eurozone #Jon Harrison #QT #Stocks #Tariff #Trade

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steven Blitz

As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steven Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

Global tech breakup

Global tech breakup

20 Feb 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA.

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Tech

How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

#Equities #Fed #QT #Steven Blitz #US Economy

Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Trade War

Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

#Dario Perkins #Fed #Recession watch #US

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