Contact Us.

"> Contact Us.

">

Blogs

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.



Global tech breakup

Global tech breakup

20 Feb 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA. Eleanor Olcott has gone into the detail and explains why ...

China China Eleanor Olcott Tech


How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

Investors have recently favoured US equities with large foreign revenue exposure, as opposed to domestically orientated operations. He for...

Equities Fed QT Steve Blitz US Economy


Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

China’s Vice Premier, Liu He is in Washington for trade t...

China Eleanor Olcott Huawei Trade War


Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

Dario Perkins looks at the short-term dangers and what might tip a period of...

Dario Perkins Fed Recession watch US


Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steve Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 

The Fed has b...

Fed FOMC Interest Rates Powell Steve Blitz US Economy Yield Curve


Time-out not time up for trade war

Time-out not time up for trade war

03 Dec 2018 - Eleanor Olcott
  • Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
  • But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
  • After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 


  • Eleanor Olcott g20 Tariffs Trade War Trump Xi Jinping

Anti-Chinese Walls

Anti-Chinese Walls

30 Nov 2018 - Constantine Fraser
  • Mercantilism and geopolitics mean Europe is getting tough on Chinese FDI
  • New EU legislation looks weak on the tin, but will have more far reaching effects
  • In the realm of direct investment, regionalisation is getting underway

    China Chinese FDI Constantine Fraser EU Legislation Europe

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

19 Nov 2018 - Steve Blitz

If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect bet...

Fed FOMC Rate Hikes Steve Blitz TRUMP


Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

15 Nov 2018 - Shweta Singh
  • Foreigners' appetite for US Treasuries is diminishing
  • Declining EM FX reserves take away a key source of demand
  • Hedged US yield pick-up for DM investors no longer attractive

Foreign demand for US Treasurie...

Bond Yields ECB Fed FX QE Shweta Singh Yield curve


Rocket Man risk to resurface

Rocket Man risk to resurface

14 Nov 2018 - Rory Green
  • The Singapore summit agreement is unravelling
  • For China, the trade war and North Korea are linked
  • Rifts in the South Korea-US alliance are emerging

Markets have discounted the “rocket man” risk, wh...

China North Korea Rory Green South Korea Trade War


Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

Don’t Get Too Excited About China’s Stimulus

09 Nov 2018 - Bo Zhuang
  • Beijing is not simply repeating an old-style credit easing to prop up the economy
  • The positive spill-over effect of China stimulus on the global economy will be offset by further yuan devaluation 
  • Growth will decelerate fu...

    Bo Zhuang China credit Global growth PMI Yuan

Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 20...

    China EA Emerging Markets Japan Korea Oil Oil price US

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sud...

    China FOMC MARKETS Oliver Brennan Trade Trade War TRUMP USD

The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
...


Fed Inflation Recession Trade War US

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

21 Sep 2018 - Lawrence Brainard

Larry Brainard looks beyond the relentless march of President Trump’s escalating trade war. He explains why market forces will reshape world trade. The world will fracture into distinct trading blocs. The pattern is already beginning to take shape.

China Globalization Manufacturing Trade Trade War Trump


Trade War: More escalation ahead

Trade War: More escalation ahead

18 Sep 2018 - Jonathan Fenby & Bo Zhuang
  • Trade confrontation has intensified. We expect US tariffs vs. China to rise to 25% 
  • China unlikely to offer concessions
  • We maintain our 15% yuan devaluation call

We warned our clients that the US-Sino tra...

China Tariffs Trade War US


EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

05 Sep 2018 - Jon Harrison
  • Argentina, Turkey could be manageable, Brazil less so, China not at all
  • EM crises, tighter liquidity and Trade War lead to correlated markets
  • Negative feedback to DM will be via trade and China 

We mainta...

Argentina Brazil China Emerging Markets Liquidity Trade Trade War Turkey


What now for industrial metals?

What now for industrial metals?

21 Aug 2018 - Konstantinos Venetis

2018 has been a rollercoaster year for commodities. Resilience during the early part of the year gave way to intensifying downside pressure over the summer. Gold, industrial metals and (to a lesser extent) oil have all suffered.

At the start of th...

Commodities Energy Gold Industrial metals Inflation Konstantinos Venetis


Why the US yield curve is special

Why the US yield curve is special

20 Aug 2018 - Dario Perkins

The continued flattening in the US yield curve remains a source of background anxiety for investors. If the curve continues to flatten – we are warned – it must eventually invert. And if it inverts soon, there will be a recession in 2019.

...


Dario Perkins Recession US Yield Curve

Trade war morphing into FX war

Trade war morphing into FX war

07 Aug 2018 - Charles Dumas

As the trade war situation has now escalated we now see this as a key political shock. We expect China to retaliate vigorously to any fresh US import tariffs and see the likely battle ground as Foreign Exchange. China’s probable response would be to s...

Charles Dumas China FX Tariffs Trade war US


VIDEO

Video

View our summary videos on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with zdl@tslombard.com

READ MORE
TRACK RECORD

Track Record

We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

READ MORE
PRESS

Press

To request an interview with a member of our team, please get in touch zdl@tslombard.com .

READ MORE

Menu

Client Login


Don't have an account? CREATE YOUR ACCOUNT
READ MEET TALK