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The View: Trade war raises recession risk

03 Jun 2019
Christopher Granville
Managing Director, EMEA and Global Political Research

Markets still too complacent on existing measures, much more uncertainty is to come.

When will the Euro come of age?

10 May 2019
Charles Dumas
Chief Economist

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard on Italexit – economics say perhaps yes, politics say no:

  • Real growth of EA per-head output has been less than in the UK & USA
  • Tight post-crisis budgeting has forced ultra-easy monetary policy
  • German fiscal deflation in 2002-05 instigated intra-EA cost imbalances
  • German fiscal tightening in 2011-13 worsened EA double-dip recession
  • Spain’s violent post-crisis labour cost adjustment not matched by Italy
  • 20-year excess of Italian labour costs over German were 13%-20%
  • Static in 1999-2008 – Italy’s 2018 productivity is now 3½% below 1998
  • Spain followed a text-book and successful Keynesian fiscal policy
  • On-trend EA growth incompatible with budget balance, 2% inflation
  • Popular standard of living rose far less than GDP – Italy’s is down 5%
  • Italy might leave the euro, but with damaging political ructions
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