Listen to our audio clips on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with

Japan - Growth, Oil and Geopolitics

10 Jan 2020
Konstantinos Venetis
Senior Economist
  • Middle East flare-up riases the spectre of simultaneous yen, oil price strength
  • Indirect effects from a lasting oil supply shock dominate risks to growth
  • Capex resilience key for GDP as job market tailwinds fade

US Outlook 2020 - From headwinds to tailwinds; does Iran matter?

08 Jan 2020
Steven Blitz
Managing Director, Global Macro, Chief US Economist
  • Slow start to 2020, a strong finish, as headwinds give way to tailwinds
  • Fed throws in the towel on inflation, sets up for a challenging 2021
  • Is the US-Iran showdown a new headwind?

China: Stability first

17 Dec 2019
Rory Green
Economist, China and South Korea
  • 2020 GDP growth target is likely to be "around 6%"
  • Shadow banking contraction is set to stabilize and reverse
  • Government deficit expansion  will be limited in 2020

The View: Trade war raises recession risk

03 Jun 2019
Christopher Granville
Managing Director, EMEA and Global Political Research

Markets still too complacent on existing measures, much more uncertainty is to come.

When will the Euro come of age?

10 May 2019
Charles Dumas
Chief Economist

Charles Dumas, Chief Economist at TS Lombard on Italexit – economics say perhaps yes, politics say no:

  • Real growth of EA per-head output has been less than in the UK & USA
  • Tight post-crisis budgeting has forced ultra-easy monetary policy
  • German fiscal deflation in 2002-05 instigated intra-EA cost imbalances
  • German fiscal tightening in 2011-13 worsened EA double-dip recession
  • Spain’s violent post-crisis labour cost adjustment not matched by Italy
  • 20-year excess of Italian labour costs over German were 13%-20%
  • Static in 1999-2008 – Italy’s 2018 productivity is now 3½% below 1998
  • Spain followed a text-book and successful Keynesian fiscal policy
  • On-trend EA growth incompatible with budget balance, 2% inflation
  • Popular standard of living rose far less than GDP – Italy’s is down 5%
  • Italy might leave the euro, but with damaging political ructions


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