Where We Stand – a summary of our key views and why we have them Where We Stand – a summary of our key views and why we have them

08 Oct 2020
Martin Shenfield
Managing Director, Macro Strategy

Martin Shenfield, Managing Director of Macro Strategy, discusses the following points:

  • Disconnect between US corporate/consumer forward expectations and reality – why do they persist and when will confidence in the V-shaped recovery dissipate?
  • Winners and losers at country and sector level for each US election outcome; how to hedge US election risk
  • China, the Tech war, and implications for economies and markets in Asia
  • The macro implications of AIT – is this the end of 60/40 investing and what does this mean for alternatives?
  • A summary of our key Asset Allocation recommendations globally and tactical trade ideas

Why we remain bears Why we remain bears

30 Jun 2020
Andrea Cicione
Head of Strategy and COO Research
Charles Dumas
Chief Economist

Charles and Andrea discuss our core house view; that we remain convinced bears, S&P 500 down at least 20% from here is our starting point. Quarterly earnings & other triggers to send the equity market down in waves, these downward lurches could take more than a year to roll through. The current self-confidence driving stock prices higher merits the comparison of current forward p/e ratios to their only precedent, the 1999-2000 tech bubble, a comparison with the 2½-3-year bear market that slumped in 2000 and finally ended in early 2003 thus also merits comparison to now. Equities offer no margin of safety owing to these high p/e and EPS expectations. This makes them unappealing from a risk-reward perspective. We keep a cautious stance on equities owing to the lack of apparent value at current prices, but a sudden drop to retest this cycle’s lows is unlikely in the near term.

Japan - Growth, Oil and Geopolitics Japan - Growth, Oil and Geopolitics

10 Jan 2020
Konstantinos Venetis
Senior Economist
  • Middle East flare-up riases the spectre of simultaneous yen, oil price strength
  • Indirect effects from a lasting oil supply shock dominate risks to growth
  • Capex resilience key for GDP as job market tailwinds fade

US Outlook 2020 - From headwinds to tailwinds; does Iran matter? US Outlook 2020 - From headwinds to tailwinds; does Iran matter?

08 Jan 2020
Steven Blitz
Managing Director, Global Macro, Chief US Economist
  • Slow start to 2020, a strong finish, as headwinds give way to tailwinds
  • Fed throws in the towel on inflation, sets up for a challenging 2021
  • Is the US-Iran showdown a new headwind?
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