Amitabh Dubey

Amitabh Dubey

Political Analyst, India Research

Amitabh joined TS Lombard in 2007 and is co-head of the India team focussing on politics and governance. He helps investors find investment opportunities in sectors such as infrastructure and mining and also analyses the investment impact of major government initiatives in areas such as biometric identification, financial inclusion and food security. His main themes are the limits on executive power, state capture and crony capitalism. He successfully anticipated the importance of the Modi government’s lack of upper house majority. Amitabh has previous experience as a political risk analyst and as a business journalist in India with Business Standard and Business India Television. He has many TV appearances on CNN, CNBC, Al Jazeera, NDTV and CNN-IBN and publishes in the Financial Times. He has degrees in economics and political science from Delhi University, the University of Chicago and Columbia University.

Amitabh Dubey contributes to the EM Watch and India publications.

EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)
India: On-the-ground coverage of the political economy and policy developments that drive growth and reform. (2 to 4 notes per month)

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June 2019 - India

Amitabh Dubey's Top Market Calls

Modi euphoria will fade fast
We said:
Hopes that Modi will usher in structural reforms has led to a strong rally across Indian asset classes. This short-term rally will likely fade as investors return focus to economic fundamentals and earnings. 
Modi will stick to his winning policy mix of welfarism with limited, gradual reforms. After the initial euphoria, investor attention will switch to worrying economic fundamentals. GDP growth has slowed to its weakest pace in 5 years and global headwinds are rising. Falling consumption and slow investment imply that 7%-plus GDP growth will be a challenge. A more accommodating RBI leadership will continue to ease policy rates and banking norms. Creating jobs, improving rural incomes and reviving credit growth will be Modi's key priorities. Structural reforms in land and labour markets, and privatization of banks are unlikely.
Outcome: That scenario has played out exactly and India is now in the midst of an investment and consumption slowdown. The RBI has continued to ease monetary policy, with anuncharacteristically large 35 bps cut in August. A fiscal stimulus package is also planned. Sensex fell 6% from 39,615 on 6 June to 36,976 on 6 August 2019. 

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