Christopher Granville-2

Christopher Granville

Managing Director, EMEA and Global Political Research

His 25 years’ experience covering the political economy of Russia and other FSU countries, including time working in Moscow-based investment banks where he was a top-ranked strategist and political analyst in broker surveys, started with a posting in Moscow as a UK diplomat in the early 1990s. In the decade from co-founding Trusted Sources until its merger with Lombard Street Research to form TS Lombard in 2016, he has also been producing broader political analysis on EMEA regional markets and geopolitics. Academic work in Italy during the 1980s underpins his lifelong interest in that country’s political economy. He is a regular commentator on FSU affairs in broadcast media and leading op-ed columns. He graduated from Oxford University, where he was also a Fellow of All Souls College.

Christopher Granville contributes to the EM Watch, Russia and Global Political Drivers publications.

EM Watch: Analysis of EM sentiment drivers and fundamental or policy country developments on 10 emerging countries. (Every Monday)
Russia: Market relevant analysis of the domestic political economy and geopolitical developments.  (1 note per month)
Global Political Drivers: Detailed analysis of geo-political themes that drive global risk appetite among investors. (Fortnightly on Thursdays)

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March 2020 - Oil

Christopher Granville's Top Market Calls

Oil price war: who will blink?
We said: The answer is Saudi Arabia. They cannot afford it, and the collapsing demand environment is the completely unfit for a volume vs price strategy. The war will be over by June – i.e. replaced by renewed supply-side restraint, supporting an oil price recovery.
Outcome: We were right, only too conservative on the timing: the Saudis folded five weeks later with the new OPEC+ agreement on 12 April slashing production by 25%.

"I have been a fan of Christopher Granville’s sharp insight and lively prose for far more than 30 years!"
Christopher Smart, Chief Global Strategist & Head of the Barings Investment Institute, Boston, USA
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