Markets

Overview

Our investment strategists absorb our teams’ political and economic views and forecasts. Then, using a market lens, they provide our clients with advice on asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management.

At TS Lombard, we are in the advantageous position of having a wealth of global economic and political analysis at our disposal. Through the judicious interpretation of this knowledge, and rigorous market analysis, we provide clients with high-conviction advice on the best course of action to take in order to capitalise on opportunities and avoid risks.

We provide actionable asset allocation advice (3-6 month horizon) expressed in absolute terms and relative tems in model portfolios. We also provide tactical trade ideas (6-8 week horizon).

Our Markets Research Methodology

Timing is key, and our focus is to determine the optimal moment to increase or reduce exposure to a specific asset class or make a tactical trade. We take pride in presenting our clients with resolute ideas based on their specific needs, giving them an opportunity to make adjustments to their portfolios with greater confidence. In many cases, we act as a ‘sounding board’ or a ‘second opinion’ to help you see how interdependencies and interconnections will have an impact on your decision-making.

 

Our proprietary strategy models can help you identify where the value is in the market with a greater degree of certainty. And our agnostic approach to asset classes allows us to give you the best value recommendations – whether that’s cross-asset, multi-asset or within asset classes.

Using detailed economic and political risk analysis as the building blocks of our forecasting, our team of expert strategists assess market positioning and technical signals and then formulate asset and investment recommendations based on the most likely outcomes.

Services

Asset Allocation

Combines global macroeconomic views and market strategy to give investment recommendations within and across the main asset classes – with a 3 to 6 month investment time horizon. Views expressed as both absolute calls and relative allocations in our model portfolio. Contains proprietary ValuQEST equity model.  (Monthly)

Macro Strategy

Global tactical trade ideas to play key macro themes or exploit relative value opportunities – with a 6 – 9 week investment horizon. (Weekly on Wednesday)

Chartbook

Highlights important market drivers and summarises our key investment conclusions across all the major asset classes. (Monthly)

Strategy Alerts

New trade notifications, closing trades and quick market alerts on fast moving changes.

EM Strategy Monthly

Flagship overview essay of EMs, relative asset allocation views for each asset class; our high-conviction total return views, heat map presentations of our FX and fixed income market views, as well as an accessible one-page summary for each of the 10 EM countries we cover. (First week of each month)

Strategy Flash

Ad-hoc reports on top-down EM themes and cross-country comparative analyses.

Quant Strategies

We have developed 10 quantitative signals that provide reliable short-term market calls for investors. Each strategy uses and places heavy weighting on data sets and other technical inputs selected by our macro economic team. These have been overlaid with other quant data and market timing data. The out of sample performance over 5 years has consistently generated alpha. The strategies rebalance once per week or month as appropriate. 

They are:

  • US Equity Sectors
  • Europe Equity Sectors
  • DM Country Selection
  • EM Equity Sectors
  • Government Bond Futures
  • VIX Arbitrage
  • VIX Directional
  • Commodity Selection
  • FX Selection
  • Dynamic Futures Asset Allocation

Research Partners

At TS Lombard Research Partners we partner with experienced market-facing analysts to bring our clients a wider range of independent research services in a highly innovative way.

The changes to the industry’s research business model prompted by the adoption of the MiFID II directive have meant that many well-established analysts are questioning the future direction of their careers.  At the same time, investment managers are just as hungry for sources of alpha generation, and are starting to look at non-traditional sources of insight.

We have therefore created a distribution and compliance platform for experienced, independently-minded analysts.  TS Lombard was ranked in the top three independent research firms globally in our field in the most recent Extel Survey.

Asia Property

Our Asia Property service analyses developments in the sector, with an emphasis on the largest most liquid stocks and provides actionable single stock recommendations and calls on the value of specific REITS and property companies.

Coverage is by Andrew Lawrence from our Hong Kong office.  Andrew joined us as a Research Partner in 2017 and combines 21 years’ experience in Asian real estate at banks such as Kleinwort Benson, Deutsche Bank and Barclays with direct investment experience, investing across the capital structure of both public and private real estate companies for hedge funds, as well as consulting experience in the real estate business.

His research has been top rated in industry surveys and consistently valued by many international investment institutions. Prior to moving to Asia 21 years ago, Andrew was head of property strategy for a major UK PLC and spent seven years in real estate advisory. He founded Oculus Research Asia in 2015 as an independent research service committed to providing original and insightful research focused on the Asian real estate sector.

We believe his partnership with us will generate fresh investment ideas and create outperformance.

All research from our partners will offer the same high standards that underpin our macroeconomic and strategy work.  Research partners interact with our in house team to exchange ideas. Through this macro analysis and micro sector expertise come together.  

We initiated our Research Partners service in 2016/17 with New Energy and Asian Property – two sectors that link directly to our existing expertise in the macroeconomic and policy arenas.  Kingsmill Bond and Andrew Lawrence are well-established analysts with extensive experience in their sectors and strong relationships with investment managers globally.

As other high-quality, experienced analysts leave major sell-side institutions, we will expand the sectors under coverage and will be actively engaged with clients about meeting their needs for high-quality, insightful research.

New Energy

The New Energy revolution has dramatic implications across energy, emerging markets and indeed all asset classes.  Our New Energy service provides a detailed focus on the investment consequences of this transformative revolution, which is driven increasingly by China and India.

Kingsmill Bond joined TS Lombard as our first Research Partner in 2016. He was ranked number one for strategy in European emerging markets and then in Russia by Extel and Institutional Investor for a number of years, most recently in 2015.  Across the New Energy sectors, he specializes in solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles and energy efficiency. He also analyses the implications of the revolution for old sectors such as oil, gas and coal, as well as for transition sectors such as electricity, automotive, infrastructure and machinery.

Kingsmill is an experienced emerging market analyst, with a particular focus on Russia and energy. He has worked across a wide range of markets in EMEA, Asia and Latin America for Deutsche Bank, Citi and Troika and in a variety of sectors including strategy, technology and consumer. He studied history at Cambridge University, trained as an accountant and is a CFA charter holder.

Markets Research

Markets
28 Mar 2018

Trading Trade Trouble

  • US has a framework to discourage trade manipulation; next report due in April
  • We sell CNY/KRW as Korean FX intervention likely to diminish
  • Tariff tit-for-tat retaliation good for BRL as soybean exports grab market share
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Markets
27 Mar 2018

April 2018 Chartbook

  • Macro Drivers. Fiscal stimulus is stoking an overheating US economy, trade wars may be a drag
  • Multi Asset. S&P ERP in line with long-term average, making stocks fair value vs bonds
  • Fixed Income. Market underestimates pace of Fed hikes; ECB underestimates impact of unwinding QE
  • Currencies. Change in Fed reaction function means USD no longer the worst currency in the world
  • Equities. The RoE gap between EA/Japan and the US is narrowing, supporting higher valuations
  • Commodities. Oil demand to continue outstripping supply in the absence of trade wars
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Markets
19 Mar 2018

Trade War, IP: China in The Firing Line

  • Global: Shoot first style will hit markets
  • China: US-China tensions set to escalate
  • Brazil: Short-term fiscal outlook improves
  • India: Bypoll losses pile pressure on Modi
  • Russia: Putin’s victory signals are positive
  • Mexico: NAFTA runs into election season
  • Turkey: The lira is teetering on the brink
  • Indonesia: Politics raises stability risks
  • Strategy: EM political risks in 2018
READ ME
Markets
16 Mar 2018

This is What Normal Looks Like

  • VIX higher than it recently was doesn’t mean we’re in a vol ‘new normal’
  • 2017 was a freak year for volatility – this is what ‘normal’ looks like
  • The cycle is maturing but overheating is not imminent
  • Trade war risk is back but still fairly remote – we don’t position for it
  • Higher EA and Japan RoE should narrow the valuation gap with the US
  • Bonds to continue consolidation; Fed meeting to set tone for next move
  • Dollar no longer the weakest currency in the world
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Track Record

Markets
15 Apr 2016

2016: Long EM bonds

We said:

Appealing valuations, brightening prospects for global carry strategies, a large yield pick-up core markets and a general fear-fatigue make EM bonds attractive, as the Fed pushes back rate hikes and China stabilises. (LSR Asset Allocation 15th April 2016)

Outcome:

EM bonds outperform driven by the search for yield as investors moved out of negative or zero rate bond markets.

Markets
07 Apr 2016

2016: Protracted exit for Dilma favors local debt

We said:

Despite the risk of a weaker economy and of heightened volatility in equity markets, the protracted exit for Dilma favours local debt. We expect Banco Central to continue to intervene in response to excessive currency appreciation; but improved investor sentiment thanks to the perceived prospect of a new government should ensure that the Real does not collapse and that inflation continues to decline, opening the way for lower interest rates. We add a positive view of Brazilian local debt to our list of high-conviction absolute market views. (EM Macro Strategy 7th April 2016).

Outcome:

Trade generates 220bps of profit which we take on 7th September 2016.

Markets
30 Mar 2016

2016: Add carry to your portfolio

Consensus said:

Policy divergence dominates as a theme for investors.

We said:

The Fed is helping carry strategies perform. But not all carry is equal. We need the propulsion of a good domestic story. We recommend going long INR vs. GBP and long IDR vs. USD. (LSR Macro Strategy 30th March 2016)

Outcome:

5%+ pure carry performance on the Indian rupee.

Markets
10 Nov 2016

2016: Long South African local debt

We said:

International investors have reduced their exposure to local debt amid the latest escalation of political turmoil but have not yet returned to the market; this leaves potential for them to rebuild positions if, as we expect, the country enters a period of relative political calm. A stable currency will also ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchore, which will support the case for the SARB to the monetary tightening cycle, and benefit local bond markets. (EM Market Views 10 November 2016)

Outcome:

Trade makes 19bps (9.7%) before we take profit on 3rd February 2017.

Markets
12 Oct 2016

2016: Bottom in sterling post Brexit

Consensus said:

Investors panicked by sterling and gilt sell-offs following Brexit vote and announcement of Article 50 timing.

We said:

EM parallels after joint sell-off in Gilts and sterling look misplaced. Sustainability may look poor on current account but not on net foreign asset position. We recommend playing near-time sterling topside using options and suggest selling a 0.90-0.95 3-month EUR/GBP call spread. (LSR Macro Strategy 12th October 2016)

Outcome:

GBP gained 6% vs. the euro from the top around 0.90.

Markets
31 Aug 2016

2016: Gilts to under-perform

We said:

On the whole the Brexit-induced slowdown may turn out to be shallower than the spread between Gilt yields and US Treasuries is pricing in. This will especially be the case if core inflation picks up in the UK but declines in the US. We recommend a new relative-value trade: long UST 10y/short Gilt 10y entered at or close to current market levels (96bp at the time of writing) with a target of 65bp and a stop loss at 105bp. (LSR Macro Strategy 31st August 2016)

Outcome:

Target move of 31bps achieved.

Our Team

Markets

Andrea Cicione

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Ollie Brennan

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Jon Harrison

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Andrew Lawrence

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Eugenio Montersino

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Stephen O'Sullivan

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Markets

Martin Shenfield

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ECONOMICS

Through our analysis of the forces that drive economics at the global, regional and country level, we have a joined-up picture of the world economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking and forecasting with high conviction.

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POLITICS

With political drivers and government policy playing an increasingly significant role in determining economic and market outcomes, our world-wide team of political analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence investment performance – both regionally and globally.

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