Our investment strategists absorb our teams’ political and economic views and forecasts. Then, using a market lens, they provide our clients with advice on asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management.
At TS Lombard, we are in the advantageous position of having a wealth of global economic and political analysis at our disposal. Through the judicious interpretation of this knowledge, and rigorous market analysis, we provide clients with high-conviction advice on the best course of action to take in order to capitalise on opportunities and avoid risks.
We provide actionable asset allocation advice (3-6 month horizon) expressed in absolute terms and relative tems in model portfolios. We also provide tactical trade ideas (6-8 week horizon).
Timing is key, and our focus is to determine the optimal moment to increase or reduce exposure to a specific asset class or make a tactical trade. We take pride in presenting our clients with resolute ideas based on their specific needs, giving them an opportunity to make adjustments to their portfolios with greater confidence. In many cases, we act as a ‘sounding board’ or a ‘second opinion’ to help you see how interdependencies and interconnections will have an impact on your decision-making.
Our proprietary strategy models can help you identify where the value is in the market with a greater degree of certainty. And our agnostic approach to asset classes allows us to give you the best value recommendations – whether that’s cross-asset, multi-asset or within asset classes.
Using detailed economic and political risk analysis as the building blocks of our forecasting, our team of expert strategists assess market positioning and technical signals and then formulate asset and investment recommendations based on the most likely outcomes.
More balanced growth in China is a major positive for global EMs
Appealing valuations, brightening prospects for global carry strategies, a large yield pick-up core markets and a general fear-fatigue make EM bonds attractive, as the Fed pushes back rate hikes and China stabilises. (LSR Asset Allocation 15th April 2016)
EM bonds outperform driven by the search for yield as investors moved out of negative or zero rate bond markets.
Despite the risk of a weaker economy and of heightened volatility in equity markets, the protracted exit for Dilma favours local debt. We expect Banco Central to continue to intervene in response to excessive currency appreciation; but improved investor sentiment thanks to the perceived prospect of a new government should ensure that the Real does not collapse and that inflation continues to decline, opening the way for lower interest rates. We add a positive view of Brazilian local debt to our list of high-conviction absolute market views. (EM Macro Strategy 7th April 2016).
Trade generates 220bps of profit which we take on 7th September 2016.
Policy divergence dominates as a theme for investors.
The Fed is helping carry strategies perform. But not all carry is equal. We need the propulsion of a good domestic story. We recommend going long INR vs. GBP and long IDR vs. USD. (LSR Macro Strategy 30th March 2016)
5%+ pure carry performance on the Indian rupee.
International investors have reduced their exposure to local debt amid the latest escalation of political turmoil but have not yet returned to the market; this leaves potential for them to rebuild positions if, as we expect, the country enters a period of relative political calm. A stable currency will also ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchore, which will support the case for the SARB to the monetary tightening cycle, and benefit local bond markets. (EM Market Views 10 November 2016)
Trade makes 19bps (9.7%) before we take profit on 3rd February 2017.
Investors panicked by sterling and gilt sell-offs following Brexit vote and announcement of Article 50 timing.
EM parallels after joint sell-off in Gilts and sterling look misplaced. Sustainability may look poor on current account but not on net foreign asset position. We recommend playing near-time sterling topside using options and suggest selling a 0.90-0.95 3-month EUR/GBP call spread. (LSR Macro Strategy 12th October 2016)
GBP gained 6% vs. the euro from the top around 0.90.
On the whole the Brexit-induced slowdown may turn out to be shallower than the spread between Gilt yields and US Treasuries is pricing in. This will especially be the case if core inflation picks up in the UK but declines in the US. We recommend a new relative-value trade: long UST 10y/short Gilt 10y entered at or close to current market levels (96bp at the time of writing) with a target of 65bp and a stop loss at 105bp. (LSR Macro Strategy 31st August 2016)
Target move of 31bps achieved.
Head of Strategy
Andrea joined TS Lombard in August 2012 and is currently Head of Strategy. He concentrates on providing advice on medium-term asset allocation as well as developing tactical investment and trading ideas. His main focus is cross-asset macro strategy, with a particular emphasis on the global fixed income and equity markets.
Andrea spent over ten years in financial markets on both the buy and sell side and his experience covers corporate bonds, credit derivatives and equities. He holds an MBA from the London Business School with a specialisation in finance. An engineering graduate, he spent the first years of his career developing chassis systems for Alfa Romeo cars.
Senior Macro Strategist
Ollie joined TS Lombard in April 2017 and is part of the Macro Strategy group, working on medium-term asset allocation and shorter term tactical investment ideas with a particular focus on currencies and fixed income.
He has ten years’ experience in financial markets on the buy- and sell-side, most recently as FX strategist in a large macro hedge fund. At State Street he helped launch the new inflation product “PriceStats”. As well as being an experienced market strategist he has been closely involved in portfolio construction, risk management and trade structuring throughout his career.
Ollie holds an M. Phys in Physics from Oxford University and before joining the financial market was a high-school physics teacher.
Managing Director, EM Macro Strategy
Jon joined TS Lombard in May 2014 as a senior Macro Strategist in the EM Macro Strategy team to deepen coverage in the FX, fixed income and credit markets. Jon brings a wealth of strategy experience backed by quantitative skills. His mandate at TS Lombard includes driving the formalisation of the process of translating views on the political economy into market strategy and investment conclusions.
Jon has an M.Sc. Finance from University of London and is a CFA charterholder. In many years of experience as an Emerging Market Strategist, he has covered FX, fixed income and credit at Deutsche Bank and Dresdner Kleinwort. Immediately before joining TS Lombard, he spent four years at Commerzbank as a salesperson in their EM/FX Sales team covering hedge funds and asset managers where he gained a different perspective on the asset management business while continuing to engage with all aspects of research and leveraging his previous strategy experience.
At TS Lombard, Jon has produced strategy publications on top down themes across all asset classes and also on specific market views. Jon is responsible for our weekly EM Watch publication, in which he writes on global themes relevant to emerging markets and produces market strategy analysis supporting our asset allocation and high-conviction views; as well as editing contributions from our in-country specialists analysing the implications of key fundamental developments. He also contributes to our flagship EM Strategy Monthly publication and to our fundamental guide to emerging markets: The GRID.
Senior Quantitative and Risk Analyst
Eugenio Montersino joined TS Lombard in May 2011 as a member of the Strategy team, where his focus is on cross-asset investment strategies. He develops systematic trading strategies and screenings, strategic and tactical asset allocation models, and portfolio construction and risk analysis tools.
He previously spent three years working for an Italian independent asset management company.
Eugenio was part of the Risk Management team, developing market risk models for managed portfolios, before becoming Quantitative Analyst and Assistant Portfolio Manager for the company’s European Long/Short equity fund in London.
Eugenio, a CFA charter holder, graduated from the Bocconi University (Milan) in 2008. He holds an M.Sc. in Finance, specialising in quantitative methods and risk management.
Senior Macro Strategist
Martin Shenfield joined TS Lombard in October 2014 to promote and communicate the firm’s Macroeconomic and Strategy views. He works closely with the analysts and complements the sales team in presenting and interpreting LSR’s core insights and recommendations.
He has 36 years of broad international fund management experience managing various long-only institutional, mutual and absolute return and hedge funds as well as undertaking CIO & global asset allocation responsibilities.
Having worked in financial centres such as London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore, Martin has accumulated a deep knowledge of global macro analysis and asset allocation, complemented by fundamental stock-picking.
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Through our analysis of the forces that drive economics at the global, regional and country level, we have a joined-up picture of the world economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking and forecasting with high conviction.
With political drivers and government policy playing an increasingly significant role in determining economic and market outcomes, our world-wide team of political analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence investment performance – both regionally and globally.