Our investment strategists absorb our teams’ political and economic views and forecasts. Then, using a market lens, they provide our clients with advice on asset allocation, investment positioning and portfolio risk management.
At TS Lombard, we are in the advantageous position of having a wealth of global economic and political analysis at our disposal. Through the judicious interpretation of this knowledge, and rigorous market analysis, we provide clients with high-conviction advice on the best course of action to take in order to capitalise on opportunities and avoid risks.
We provide actionable asset allocation advice (3-6 month horizon) expressed in absolute terms and relative tems in model portfolios. We also provide tactical trade ideas (6-8 week horizon).
Timing is key, and our focus is to determine the optimal moment to increase or reduce exposure to a specific asset class or make a tactical trade. We take pride in presenting our clients with resolute ideas based on their specific needs, giving them an opportunity to make adjustments to their portfolios with greater confidence. In many cases, we act as a ‘sounding board’ or a ‘second opinion’ to help you see how interdependencies and interconnections will have an impact on your decision-making.
Our proprietary strategy models can help you identify where the value is in the market with a greater degree of certainty. And our agnostic approach to asset classes allows us to give you the best value recommendations – whether that’s cross-asset, multi-asset or within asset classes.
Using detailed economic and political risk analysis as the building blocks of our forecasting, our team of expert strategists assess market positioning and technical signals and then formulate asset and investment recommendations based on the most likely outcomes.
Combines global macroeconomic views and market strategy to give investment recommendations within and across the main asset classes – with a 3 to 6 month investment time horizon. Views expressed as both absolute calls and relative allocations in our model portfolio. Contains proprietary ValuQEST equity model. (Monthly)
Global tactical trade ideas to play key macro themes or exploit relative value opportunities – with a 6 – 9 week investment horizon. (Weekly on Wednesday)
Highlights important market drivers and summarises our key investment conclusions across all the major asset classes. (Monthly)
New trade notifications, closing trades and quick market alerts on fast moving changes.
Flagship overview essay of EMs, relative asset allocation views for each asset class; our high-conviction total return views, heat map presentations of our FX and fixed income market views, as well as an accessible one-page summary for each of the 10 EM countries we cover. (First week of each month)
Ad-hoc reports on top-down EM themes and cross-country comparative analyses.
We have developed 10 quantitative signals that provide reliable short-term market calls for investors. Each strategy uses and places heavy weighting on data sets and other technical inputs selected by our macro economic team. These have been overlaid with other quant data and market timing data. The out of sample performance over 5 years has consistently generated alpha. The strategies rebalance once per week or month as appropriate.
At TS Lombard Research Partners we partner with experienced market-facing analysts to bring our clients a wider range of independent research services in a highly innovative way.
The changes to the industry’s research business model prompted by the adoption of the MiFID II directive have meant that many well-established analysts are questioning the future direction of their careers. At the same time, investment managers are just as hungry for sources of alpha generation, and are starting to look at non-traditional sources of insight.
We have therefore created a distribution and compliance platform for experienced, independently-minded analysts. TS Lombard was ranked in the top three independent research firms globally in our field in the most recent Extel Survey.
Our Asia Property service analyses developments in the sector, with an emphasis on the largest most liquid stocks and provides actionable single stock recommendations and calls on the value of specific REITS and property companies.
Coverage is by Andrew Lawrence from our Hong Kong office. Andrew joined us as a Research Partner in 2017 and combines 21 years’ experience in Asian real estate at banks such as Kleinwort Benson, Deutsche Bank and Barclays with direct investment experience, investing across the capital structure of both public and private real estate companies for hedge funds, as well as consulting experience in the real estate business.
His research has been top rated in industry surveys and consistently valued by many international investment institutions. Prior to moving to Asia 21 years ago, Andrew was head of property strategy for a major UK PLC and spent seven years in real estate advisory. He founded Oculus Research Asia in 2015 as an independent research service committed to providing original and insightful research focused on the Asian real estate sector.
We believe his partnership with us will generate fresh investment ideas and create outperformance.
All research from our partners will offer the same high standards that underpin our macroeconomic and strategy work. Research partners interact with our in house team to exchange ideas. Through this macro analysis and micro sector expertise come together.
We initiated our Research Partners service in 2016/17 with New Energy and Asian Property – two sectors that link directly to our existing expertise in the macroeconomic and policy arenas. Kingsmill Bond and Andrew Lawrence are well-established analysts with extensive experience in their sectors and strong relationships with investment managers globally.
As other high-quality, experienced analysts leave major sell-side institutions, we will expand the sectors under coverage and will be actively engaged with clients about meeting their needs for high-quality, insightful research.
The New Energy revolution has dramatic implications across energy, emerging markets and indeed all asset classes. Our New Energy service provides a detailed focus on the investment consequences of this transformative revolution, which is driven increasingly by China and India.
Kingsmill Bond joined TS Lombard as our first Research Partner in 2016. He was ranked number one for strategy in European emerging markets and then in Russia by Extel and Institutional Investor for a number of years, most recently in 2015. Across the New Energy sectors, he specializes in solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles and energy efficiency. He also analyses the implications of the revolution for old sectors such as oil, gas and coal, as well as for transition sectors such as electricity, automotive, infrastructure and machinery.
Kingsmill is an experienced emerging market analyst, with a particular focus on Russia and energy. He has worked across a wide range of markets in EMEA, Asia and Latin America for Deutsche Bank, Citi and Troika and in a variety of sectors including strategy, technology and consumer. He studied history at Cambridge University, trained as an accountant and is a CFA charter holder.
Appealing valuations, brightening prospects for global carry strategies, a large yield pick-up core markets and a general fear-fatigue make EM bonds attractive, as the Fed pushes back rate hikes and China stabilises. (LSR Asset Allocation 15th April 2016)
EM bonds outperform driven by the search for yield as investors moved out of negative or zero rate bond markets.
Despite the risk of a weaker economy and of heightened volatility in equity markets, the protracted exit for Dilma favours local debt. We expect Banco Central to continue to intervene in response to excessive currency appreciation; but improved investor sentiment thanks to the perceived prospect of a new government should ensure that the Real does not collapse and that inflation continues to decline, opening the way for lower interest rates. We add a positive view of Brazilian local debt to our list of high-conviction absolute market views. (EM Macro Strategy 7th April 2016).
Trade generates 220bps of profit which we take on 7th September 2016.
Policy divergence dominates as a theme for investors.
The Fed is helping carry strategies perform. But not all carry is equal. We need the propulsion of a good domestic story. We recommend going long INR vs. GBP and long IDR vs. USD. (LSR Macro Strategy 30th March 2016)
5%+ pure carry performance on the Indian rupee.
International investors have reduced their exposure to local debt amid the latest escalation of political turmoil but have not yet returned to the market; this leaves potential for them to rebuild positions if, as we expect, the country enters a period of relative political calm. A stable currency will also ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchore, which will support the case for the SARB to the monetary tightening cycle, and benefit local bond markets. (EM Market Views 10 November 2016)
Trade makes 19bps (9.7%) before we take profit on 3rd February 2017.
Investors panicked by sterling and gilt sell-offs following Brexit vote and announcement of Article 50 timing.
EM parallels after joint sell-off in Gilts and sterling look misplaced. Sustainability may look poor on current account but not on net foreign asset position. We recommend playing near-time sterling topside using options and suggest selling a 0.90-0.95 3-month EUR/GBP call spread. (LSR Macro Strategy 12th October 2016)
GBP gained 6% vs. the euro from the top around 0.90.
On the whole the Brexit-induced slowdown may turn out to be shallower than the spread between Gilt yields and US Treasuries is pricing in. This will especially be the case if core inflation picks up in the UK but declines in the US. We recommend a new relative-value trade: long UST 10y/short Gilt 10y entered at or close to current market levels (96bp at the time of writing) with a target of 65bp and a stop loss at 105bp. (LSR Macro Strategy 31st August 2016)
Target move of 31bps achieved.
Head of Strategy and COO Research
Andrea joined TS Lombard in August 2012 and is currently Head of Strategy. He concentrates on providing advice on medium-term asset allocation as well as developing tactical investment and trading ideas. His main focus is cross-asset macro strategy, with a particular emphasis on the global fixed income and equity markets.
Andrea spent over ten years in financial markets on both the buy and sell side and his experience covers corporate bonds, credit derivatives and equities. He holds an MBA from the London Business School with a specialisation in finance. An engineering graduate, he spent the first years of his career developing chassis systems for Alfa Romeo cars.
Senior Director, Macro Strategy
Ollie joined TS Lombard in April 2017 and is part of the Macro Strategy group, working on medium-term asset allocation and shorter term tactical investment ideas with a particular focus on currencies and fixed income.
He has ten years’ experience in financial markets on the buy- and sell-side, most recently as FX strategist in a large macro hedge fund. At State Street he helped launch the new inflation product “PriceStats”. As well as being an experienced market strategist he has been closely involved in portfolio construction, risk management and trade structuring throughout his career.
Ollie holds an M. Phys in Physics from Oxford University and before joining the financial market was a high-school physics teacher.
Managing Director, EM Macro Strategy
Jon joined TS Lombard in May 2014 as a senior Macro Strategist in the EM Macro Strategy team to deepen coverage in the FX, fixed income and credit markets. Jon brings a wealth of strategy experience backed by quantitative skills. His mandate at TS Lombard includes driving the formalisation of the process of translating views on the political economy into market strategy and investment conclusions.
Jon has an M.Sc. Finance from University of London and is a CFA charterholder. In many years of experience as an Emerging Market Strategist, he has covered FX, fixed income and credit at Deutsche Bank and Dresdner Kleinwort. Immediately before joining TS Lombard, he spent four years at Commerzbank as a salesperson in their EM/FX Sales team covering hedge funds and asset managers where he gained a different perspective on the asset management business while continuing to engage with all aspects of research and leveraging his previous strategy experience.
At TS Lombard, Jon has produced strategy publications on top down themes across all asset classes and also on specific market views. Jon is responsible for our weekly EM Watch publication, in which he writes on global themes relevant to emerging markets and produces market strategy analysis supporting our asset allocation and high-conviction views; as well as editing contributions from our in-country specialists analysing the implications of key fundamental developments. He also contributes to our flagship EM Strategy Monthly publication and to our fundamental guide to emerging markets: The GRID.
Asia Property Analyst
With over 20 years in Asia, Andrew has a wide range of experience across the real estate and financial service sectors. Andrew founded Oculus Research Asia in 2015 as an independent research service committed to providing original and insightful research focused on the Asian real estate sector.
As a leading Asian real estate analyst with banks such as Kleinwort Benson, Deutsche Bank and Barclay’s Capital, his research has been highly rated in industry surveys, consistently recognised by international investment institutions and received wide international media coverage. Andrew is the author of the Skyscraper Index. Andrew has direct investment experience, investing across the capital structure of both public and private real estate companies on behalf of investment hedge funds. Prior to moving to Asia, Andrew was head of property strategy for a major UK PLC and spent seven years in real estate advisory.
Andrew holds an MBA from Cranfield University.
Senior Quantitative and Risk Analyst
Eugenio Montersino joined TS Lombard in May 2011 as a member of the Strategy team, where his focus is on cross-asset investment strategies. He develops systematic trading strategies and screenings, strategic and tactical asset allocation models, and portfolio construction and risk analysis tools.
He previously spent three years working for an Italian independent asset management company.
Eugenio was part of the Risk Management team, developing market risk models for managed portfolios, before becoming Quantitative Analyst and Assistant Portfolio Manager for the company’s European Long/Short equity fund in London.
Eugenio, a CFA charter holder, graduated from the Bocconi University (Milan) in 2008. He holds an M.Sc. in Finance, specialising in quantitative methods and risk management.
Stephen O’Sullivan began his oil & gas career with several years’ experience as an oil trader, economist and corporate planner in the downstream and trading divisions of BP as well as the North Sea upstream and gas divisions of Total. In 1989 he joined Coopers & Lybrand as a strategy consultant in the oil & gas consulting business, working on the privatisation and restructuring of the energy sectors across emerging markets as well as in the nuclear power and transport sectors. He lived and worked in China, Russia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa and the Middle East.
In 1995, he was appointed Head of Research and Oil & Gas Analyst at MC Securities in London, where the team was ranked number 1 in EMEA oil & gas. Following the sale of that business to JP Morgan in 1998, he moved to Moscow as a Partner and Head of Research at United Financial Group, where he and his team were ranked the number 1 oil & gas research team and the number 1 Russia country team for seven years in a row.
After the sale of UFG to Deutsche Bank in 2005, Stephen became Head of EMEA and Latin American Research where his research team was ranked the number 1 team across all sectors, in Russia & South Africa and across the broader EMEA region in 2006 and 2007. In 2007 he moved to Hong Kong as Head of Asian Research for the Australian bank Macquarie. In 2009 he joined Barclays to lead the build-out of its Asia ex-Japan equity research business.
In 2013 he joined Trusted Sources focusing on China energy and based in Hong Kong. His major research themes include China’s gas sector reform and China’s nuclear renaissance. In 2016 following the merger between Trusted Sources and Lombard Street Research to form TS Lombard, he took on an additional role as CEO of TS Lombard Research Partners, our market-facing independent analyst platform.
He is currently a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, the world’s number 1 ranked energy think tank.
Senior Macro Strategist
Martin Shenfield joined TS Lombard in October 2014 to promote and communicate the firm’s Macroeconomic and Strategy views. He works closely with the analysts and complements the sales team in presenting and interpreting LSR’s core insights and recommendations.
He has 36 years of broad international fund management experience managing various long-only institutional, mutual and absolute return and hedge funds as well as undertaking CIO & global asset allocation responsibilities.
Having worked in financial centres such as London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore, Martin has accumulated a deep knowledge of global macro analysis and asset allocation, complemented by fundamental stock-picking.
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Through our analysis of the forces that drive economics at the global, regional and country level, we have a joined-up picture of the world economy and a deeper understanding of the countries that investors care about. This gives us a unique perspective that allows us to present courageous, fresh, long-term thinking and forecasting with high conviction.
With political drivers and government policy playing an increasingly significant role in determining economic and market outcomes, our world-wide team of political analysts are able to provide critical, timely insights into political shocks and policy developments that will influence investment performance – both regionally and globally.