2011: US equities to peak in the summer

Consensus said:

AAII investor sentiment survey: 46% bullish, 29% neutral, 25% bearish

We said:

“We downgrade US equities from positive to neutral. Equity markets may struggle from the Summer on as liquidity is also squeezed. Stocks may have a little juice left in them, but are likely to top out in the summer”. (Asset Allocation: Europe 1st March 2011)

Outcome:

2011H1 S&P500 range trades 1250-1350. July 22nd – August 8th market falls 17% and ends flat for full calendar year.

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