2012: Equity markets to peak early in 2012

Consensus said:

AAII investor sentiment survey : 48% bullish, 33% neutral, 19% bearish

We said:

Wall Street pundits whistling Dixie…Double negative for stocks as spring approaches. Not only will activity be weakening – and profits with it - but the monetary growth that has been buoyed recently by the temporary surge of cap-ex is likely to subside, taking away the flush of liquidity that is a current major factor supporting stock prices. (Asset Allocation: Americas 3rd January 2012)

Outcome:

S&P500 H1 peak is 1,422 on 2nd April, followed by a sell-off. 1,422 recovered 5 months later.

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