2012: Yen weakness to extend well into 2013

Consensus said:

Westpac forecast Yen strengthening to 79 vs. $ from December 2012 to December 2013.

We said:

Yen weakness can extend well into 2013 on small changes in Japanese investors' hedge ratios. With currency support from high real yields and the current account surplus already waning, we downgrade JPY:USD from 0 to -1. (Global Political Drivers 20th December 2012)

Outcome:

JPY down 18% vs. USD over next 7 months.

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