2014: UST 10y yields to be held down by global investment flows

Consensus said:

Bond investors position for rising US rates

We said:

For bond yields, the natural assumption is that above-trend growth will start to raise real interest rates. But against this force are both foreign capital inflows from savings-glut countries like China and Japan and the fact that current Treasury yields discount future inflation of 2.25%, a rate that is not in prospect in reality any time soon. So QE tapering may be accommodated quite easily. (LSR Asset Allocation 17th January 2014)

Outcome:

UST 10y yields at 2.84% on 17th Jan and down to 2.29% on 3rd December

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