2016: Brexit risks: more an FX than a rates story

We said:

Brexit does not pose solvency risks for the UK: Gilt yields won't rise. Sterling is and will remain the main shock-absorbing channel for Brexit risks. Gilts on the other hand are likely to continue to behave as a safe haven and reflect the traditional inflation and growth risk premia. (LSR Macro Strategy 17th February 2016)

Outcome:

10y gilt yields of 1.48% at time of writing fall after Brexit vote to bottom at 0.52% on 12th August 2016. Sterling ($1.43 at time of writing) collapsed following the Brexit vote and hit a low of $1.22 on 14th October 2016 two days after we called the bottom.

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