2016: Long duration to remain a profitable theme

Consensus said:

Many were calling the end of the 30 year bull market in bonds and others were saying there was no value in buying bonds at the prevailing elevated levels.

We said:

Long duration and other carry trades will perform will in a zero and negative interest rate environment as the search for yield will continue to drive investors into long duration bonds. Within this theme we recommended tactical long positions in 10y USTs, gilts and Australian bonds. (LSR Macro Strategy 29th July 2015)

Outcome:

All long duration and carry trades added value to our portfolio. Inflation expectations remained extremely low until Nov 2016 and political risks including Brexit pushed bond yields down and prices up.

Economics

02 Feb 2005
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20 Jul 2000
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01 Sep 1997
06 Jun 1995
10 Feb 1994
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10 Dec 1991
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Markets

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Track Record

We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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