2016: Bottom in sterling post Brexit

Consensus said:

Investors panicked by sterling and gilt sell-offs following Brexit vote and announcement of Article 50 timing.

We said:

EM parallels after joint sell-off in Gilts and sterling look misplaced. Sustainability may look poor on current account but not on net foreign asset position. We recommend playing near-time sterling topside using options and suggest selling a 0.90-0.95 3-month EUR/GBP call spread. (LSR Macro Strategy 12th October 2016)

Outcome:

GBP gained 6% vs. the euro from the top around 0.90.

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