1992: The ERM: is it doomed?

Consensus said:

FX markets volatile but not pricing in UK exit from ERM

We said:

Germany’s stringent monetary policy, to damp the inflationary pressures from unification, is incompatible with its role as leader of a fixed rate system whose other members are suffering recessions. Devaluations do not raise prices when the world is in recession. They force price cuts on exporters The British economy is headed for depression unless Germany revalues significantly. Only policy changes can save it, and that means a political crisis in which the Prime Minister and Chancellor lose their jobs. (LSR View 31st July 1992) The pound is doomed to devalue or float. 

Outcome:

UK is forced to leave ERM on Black Wednesday

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