2003: China: the coming ascendancy

Consensus said:

China not yet integral to global investors thinking.

We said:

China has grown in importance in the global economy...This article outlines the successful economic progress China has made since the late 1970s after 30 years of decline under Mao Zedong. It looks at what has underpinned its robust expansion and argues that favourable economic fundamentals should support continued strong growth in the long run. The main medium term risk is a collapse in the banking system, but this threat is often exaggerated. There has been some pressure for China to revalue its currency. Although such a move, coupled with stimulating domestic demand, will be beneficial for both China and the rest of the world, it is unlikely to happen very soon. 

Outcome:

China becomes crucial to global growth, commodities, and asset prices. No short-term banking crisis.

Economics

02 Feb 2005
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We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

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