2008: US house prices set for long-term falls

Consensus said:

Rate of decline to slow, lower interest rates to support house prices by mid-2009

We said:

Before the US economy can recover, household debt must return to manageable levels. Once there, US households are unlikely to go on another borrowing and spending spree.…it will take much more than a decade for prices to regain their former peak. (LSR View 8th December 2008)

Outcome:

Housing market still in doldrums by mid-2011, prices at best flat and down 20-30% from their peak (depending on the measure)