2010: Chinese growth rate to halve to 5% in 2010's, GFC has killed their export-led growth model

Consensus said:

Goldman Sachs and others see no meaningful slowdown in Chinese growth, GDP predicted at 8-9% medium-term

We said:

China has reached the end of the road for its export-led growth. Its miraculous growth machine has produced outstanding results, but they were only made possible by good fortune abroad. The financial crisis has ushered in a period of low global growth. The rest of the world will no longer tolerate China’s continual grabbing of market share when the global trade pie is hardly growing. The external demand shock has undermined the sustainability of China’s exorbitant investment rate, which is set to fall to 35% of GDFP by the end of the decade from 48% in 2009. Chinese potential growth rate could well halve to 5% this decade. (LSR View 16th November 2010)

Outcome:

GDP slows year or year through the decade, reaching annualized rate of 5% by mid-2014. Consensus turns bearish, commodity prices fall.

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