2012: China's banks a disaster waiting to happen

Consensus said:

China’s adjustment to lower growth rate to be smoothly managed

We said:

Worsening bank liquidity and mounting bad loans are set to undermine China's financial house of cards, leading to economic and financial turbulence over the next couple of years. Bank liquidity stress could turn out to be a key trigger in destabilising China's economy. (LSR View 28th February 2012)

Outcome:

Liquidity crunch shocks markets June 2013, Hang Seng down 8.78%, Shanghai Comp down 11.30%, GDP growth slows dramatically

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