2014: Europe drifting into Japanisation - ECB inaction risks losing control of inflation/deflation expectations

Consensus said:

ECB continues to predict a growth pick-up across the euro area

We said:

Euro-wide deflation isn’t inevitable, but it is a material risk. The smaller periphery countries are already in deflation and without a sustained economic recovery, some of the larger countries (notably Spain) could follow. The ECB is hoping for an economic recovery in 2014 that will alleviate these pressures. But if the forecasts prove too optimistic and the economy stagnates – our own baseline – the ECB must be prepared to look at more radical policy options. There is a clear risk it waits too long. (LSR Macro Picture 27th March 2014)

Outcome:

Euro area growth stabilises but at very low levels, inflation expectations and measures continue to fall. Speculation grows that QE is the only policy response that will control market expectations.

Economics

02 Feb 2005
01 Sep 2004
12 Aug 2004
05 May 2004
20 Jul 2000
01 Apr 1999
06 Jan 1999
01 Sep 1997
06 Jun 1995
10 Feb 1994
10 Mar 1993
06 Feb 1992
10 Dec 1991
03 Jan 1990

Politics

Markets

15 Apr 2016
16 Oct 2015
25 Nov 2013
20 Dec 2012
20 May 2004
03 Jul 2001
VIDEO

Video

View our summary videos on fast trending topics. To listen to a recording of our Conference Calls, please get in touch with zdl@tslombard.com

READ MORE
TRACK RECORD

Track Record

We have a 29 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.

READ MORE
PRESS

Press

To request an interview with a member of our team, please get in touch zdl@tslombard.com .

READ MORE

Menu

Client Login


Don't have an account? CREATE YOUR ACCOUNT
READ MEET TALK