2014: China slowdown to continue, no major stimulus to boost growth

Consensus said:

Growth to slow to 7-8%

We said:

Official data underestimate China’s growth downturn over the past two years. LSR estimates show real GDP growth has more than halved, down to 6.1% in the year to Q4. Continued yuan overvaluation, decimated profits, weak external demand and financial sector reform suggest growth in 2014 is likely to be below 5%. (LSR Daily Note 21st January 2014)

Outcome:

Chinese govt. and market expectations lowered. GDP slowdown continues without major policy response Q3 annualized GDP is 5% on LSR calculations.

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