2014: BoJ and Abenomics a high-risk strategy with little chance of success

Consensus said:

Two clear camps on the risks and likely outcomes of Abenomics

We said:

The only way enduring 2% inflation is achievable is if QE is continued or reinforced, and the yen takes another step down. Mr Kuroda has committed himself to the first of these, and the second is likely to follow. Only continued devaluation and export-led overheating – barely tolerable to the rest of the world – might do the trick. So the short-term yen-decline/Topix-bull story remains in place. But those wishing to get on for the ride had better be watching closely for the moment to get off. (LSR Daily Note 5th February 2014)

Outcome:

BoJ continues to debase currency announcing an intensification of QE purchases on 31st October. Consensus shifts dramatically as risks become clear to investors. Stocks up 11.5% year to date.

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