2014: No 1998-style EM crisis but a slow motion EM adjustment

Consensus said:

End of Fed QE, rising interest rates and indebtedness may lead to 1998-style Emerging Market crisis

We said:

EMs don’t face a 1990-style crisis. They will go through a slow burn adjustment process. Emerging markets, in particular current account deficit EMs, will see their currencies depreciate and real rates increase while growth weakens. (LSR View 11th March 2014)

Outcome:

Real GDP growth has slowed and currencies have weakened in most EMs over the last 18 months, but growth and FX are a lot resilient in comparison to the collapse during the 1990s crises.

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