Consensus said:
Investors positive on the US growth story and stocks. Bond markets expect yields to rise as growth picks up and Fed ends QE programme.
We said:
US has rebalanced household debt, dollar and budget deficits. Growth to be driven by pent-up housing & car demand, shale energy, and capex induced by low US costs. Sluggish rest-of-world to provide capital inflows, holding down bond yields, boosting stocks, real estate and, especially, the dollar. (LSR View 11th April 2014)
Outcome:
US stocks strongly up in 2014 to date, long bond yields do not rise in line with market expectations, USD takes off.
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