2015: Chinese yuan over-valued and Beijing will devalue

We said:

Yuan on the edge of a cliff. RMB over-valued by between 10-15%. A weaker currency needed to boost exports and keep growth and employment on track. (LSR Daily Note 16th February 2015)

Outcome:

Yuan began the year at 6.25 to the USD and finished the year at 6.70. The step devaluation in August 2015 shocked markets leading stocks to sell-off and raised questions about global growth and currency wars.

Economics

12 Jun 2018

2018: RMB appreciation to be halted by authorities

14 May 2018

2018: Oil sweet spot is maturing fast

17 Apr 2018

2018: AUD to fall heavily vs. USD

16 Feb 2018

2018: Four Fed hikes in 2018

12 Feb 2018

2018: Oil - brace for a more volatile year

11 Jan 2018

2018: China debt crisis not on the cards

18 Dec 2017

2018: Oil sweet spot in H1 2018

17 Nov 2017

2017: Four Fed hikes in next 12 months

15 Nov 2017

2017: Bank of Japan will become more flexible

28 Mar 2017

2017: EUR/USD to strengthen sharply in 2017

22 Feb 2017

2017: Consensus too bearish on Euro Area growth

24 Jan 2017

2017: OPEC cuts not enough to pull oil price higher

29 Feb 2016

2016: Yes! The US will grow! No dollar spike.

01 Feb 2016

2016: Oil to decline short-term then rebound to $40p/b

29 Jan 2016

2016: BoJ negative rates are a dangerous mistake

31 Dec 2015

2016: Don't panic yet - no global recession

27 Oct 2015

2015: Big bull - tired, but far from dead yet

06 Oct 2015

2015: Japan steers toward the financial rocks

16 Feb 2015

2015: Euro area to growth to surprise at 1.5% in 2015

16 Feb 2015

2015: Chinese yuan over-valued and Beijing will devalue

11 Dec 2014

2015: Chinese growth 4-5%, no chance of recession

09 Dec 2014

2014: No 1998-style EM crisis but a slow motion EM adjustment

26 Nov 2014

2014: Europe at stall speed

18 Nov 2014

2014: Chinese growth to weaken further

30 Oct 2014

2014: The bill from Brazil

08 Sep 2014

2014: Fed to announce beginning of the end of QE through a taper of asset purchases

11 Jun 2014

2014: Abenomic's the wrong policy mix for Japan and more is to come

11 Apr 2014

2014: US stocks, bonds and USD to outperform, US growth to quicken to 3%+ annualized

27 Mar 2014

2014: Europe drifting into Japanisation - ECB inaction risks losing control of inflation/deflation expectations

05 Feb 2014

2014: BoJ and Abenomics a high-risk strategy with little chance of success

21 Jan 2014

2014: China slowdown to continue, no major stimulus to boost growth

11 Dec 2013

2013: Pick 'EM carefully

20 Dec 2012

2012: Rate cut, not QE, to be ECB's next move

11 Oct 2012

2012: Brazilian easing cycle over, tightening to surprise in 2013

02 Oct 2012

2012: Austerity ensures Spain will miss deficit targets

16 Jul 2012

2012: Philippines the best bet in ASEAN

28 Feb 2012

2012: China's banks a disaster waiting to happen

25 Jan 2012

2012: Chinese hard landing in Year of the Dragon

09 May 2011

2011: Over-tightening, not overheating threatens Brazil

01 Apr 2011

2011: US growth to accelerate H2 due to cap-ex spending

04 Feb 2011

2011: UK house prices to stagnate

26 Jan 2011

2011: € crisis to rapidly deteriorate

26 Jan 2011

2011: Chinese inflation out of control, domestic demand to be hammered

16 Nov 2010

2010: Chinese growth rate to halve to 5% in 2010's, GFC has killed their export-led growth model

19 Jul 2010

2010: Chinese growth set for a sharp correction

04 Mar 2010

2010: RBI behind the curve, food inflation will force rates up

05 Jan 2010

2010: € crisis continues to worsen - divergence to be extreme

19 Mar 2009

2009: UK plc to recover quicker than expected

12 Jan 2009

2009: QE is the right solution to the GFC, stocks will rally

08 Dec 2008

2008: Double digit inflation to hit India

08 Dec 2008

2008: US house prices set for long-term falls

10 Nov 2008

2008: 1930's depression comparisons are overdone, markets oversold

28 May 2008

2008: US monetary policy counterproductive - will raise inflation and slow growth

05 Jun 2007

2007: Sub-prime mortgage fiasco - the start of something big

29 Mar 2007

2007: Banking crisis imminent

24 Jan 2007

2007: The bubble is about to burst

31 Aug 2006

2006: Spain & Italy diverge from core EMU

04 Aug 2006

2006: Bank of England will not cut rates and will hike next

20 Apr 2006

2006: UK house prices to continue steady growth

17 Jan 2006

2005: Germany to recover strongly

23 Nov 2005

2005: Central Bankers will fall from grace

02 Feb 2005

2005: UK house prices

30 Sep 2004

2004: Eurasian savings glut to drive US economy into hard landing

01 Sep 2004

2005: Korea

12 Aug 2004

2005: Euroland

05 May 2004

2005: Asian Tigers

10 Jan 2004

2004: UK housing market

21 Jul 2003

2003: China: the coming ascendancy

16 Apr 2003

2003: Japan turnaround

26 Nov 2002

2002: China to become a global economic engine

19 Sep 2002

2002: Commodity Prices

03 May 2001

2001: Germany at risk of recession

20 Jul 2000

2000: US economy

01 Apr 1999

1999: US inflation

06 Jan 1999

1999: UK economy

01 Sep 1997

1997: Japan

28 Apr 1996

1996: Uphill capital flows to Asia will lead to currency crisis

06 Jun 1995

1995: US economy

10 Feb 1994

1994: UK base rates

05 Aug 1993

1993: Maastricht: a house built on sand

10 Mar 1993

1993: German economy

31 Jul 1992

1992: The ERM: is it doomed?

06 Feb 1992

1992: UK inflation

10 Dec 1991

1991: Japan

03 Jan 1990

1990: UK economy

Politics

18 Jan 2019

2019: RBI will surprise with Feb rate cut

29 Nov 2018

2018: On the road in India, BJP will lose state elections

31 Oct 2018

2018: Costs of RBI-Government Spat

16 Aug 2018

2018: Russian financial deepening a shock-absorber

05 Jul 2018

2018: Brexit noise a buying opportunity

25 Jun 2018

2018: Mexico - AMLO will win presidency and Congress

21 Jun 2018

2018: Modi welfare tilt now damaging state as well as national finances

29 May 2018

2018: NAFTA deal is not imminent despite what some say

17 May 2018

2018: Russia geopol risk premium overdone

03 May 2018

2018: Long, ugly trade clash looms

26 Apr 2018

2018: Brexit In Name Only a done deaI

19 Apr 2018

2018: RMB to appreciate short-term despite trade war

06 Apr 2018

2018: Red lines and trade war tensions

26 Mar 2018

2018: Trump tariff tantrums will benefit Brazil

16 Mar 2018

2018: Mexico will move into deficit

08 Mar 2018

2018: Chinese infrastructure to be lowest in a decade

25 Jan 2018

2018: India - Growth recovery at the expense of macro stability

17 Dec 2017

2018: Turkey will fall into crisis

22 Nov 2017

2018: Brazil: Why Bolsonaro chances should not be underestimated

05 Oct 2017

2017: Brazil: Little time left for crucial fiscal reform

15 Sep 2017

2017: Catalonia will not secede

17 Aug 2017

2017: Brazil: Closer to the fiscal precipice, ratings downgrades coming soon

06 Jul 2017

2017: Italian populist talk of euro exit is a chimera

10 Mar 2017

2017: Macron to win French Presidency, Le Pen’s chances overstated

08 Mar 2017

2017: India - On the road in Uttar-Pradesh, Modi's BJP will win key election

03 Mar 2017

2017: Xi’s power consolidation allows room for lower growth target than previously promised

26 Apr 2016

2016: Nabiullina is a Russian Volcker – equities and bonds will benefit

11 Apr 2016

2016: No RMB devaluation, Beijing will use a ‘managed float’

07 Oct 2015

2015: Xi Jinping takes control of economic policy as ‘core leader’

30 Jan 2015

2015: Levy honeymoon will soon be over for Brazilian assets, recession coming

14 Nov 2014

2014: Petrobras scandal may lead to impeachment of President Rouseff

04 Aug 2014

2014: Political imperatives make mini ‘stop-go cycles’ the new norm for China

14 May 2014

2014: Markets much too hot on Indian reform.

08 May 2014

2014: Modi to win a larger majority than polls suggest. But markets still too hot on reform.

12 Jul 2013

2013: Markets too excited on China reform.

19 Sep 2011

2011: Chinese wealth management products not the negative others perceive

21 Sep 2010

2010: Chinese wages to lead on rebalancing policy.

23 Jul 2010

2010: Brazil faces serious problems no matter who wins the election

10 Aug 2008

2008: Beijing will use monetary not fiscal stimulus to boost GDP.

Markets

17 Oct 2018

2018: Buy BRL/MXN on Bolsonaro bounce

29 Aug 2018

2017: 6 reasons for USD to rally into year-end

01 Aug 2018

2018: Liquidity getting tighter, short EM stocks vs. DM stocks

13 Jul 2018

2018: TRY to fall further and faster

04 Jul 2018

2018: Short DAX vs CAC

09 May 2018

2018: Go long US consumer, we buy ETF XLY

02 May 2018

2018: Cut exposure to EMs fast

08 Mar 2018

2018: China 10y spread over USTs will fall

28 Feb 2018

2018: Short AUD vs. USD

21 Feb 2018

2018: Buy WTI and OIH ETF to play the cycle

02 Feb 2018

2018: UST 10y yields to break through 3.00%, 4 Fed hikes

03 Jan 2018

2018: Sell CAD vs. MXN

29 Nov 2017

2018: QE distortions will fade, we buy 1y10y USD 2.9% swaption

06 Oct 2017

2017: Buy WTI / sell Brent

13 Sep 2017

2017: Long USD/CAD 15Dec17 call spread

02 Aug 2017

2017: Forget sanctions, Russia is a buy

21 Jun 2017

2017: Goldilock's for EM, buy EEM US

15 May 2017

2017: Buy Turkish local debt

05 Apr 2017

2017: Long Indonesian equities

10 Nov 2016

2016: Long South African local debt

12 Oct 2016

2016: Bottom in sterling post Brexit

31 Aug 2016

2016: Gilts to under-perform

15 Apr 2016

2016: Long EM bonds

07 Apr 2016

2016: Protracted exit for Dilma favors local debt

30 Mar 2016

2016: Add carry to your portfolio

01 Mar 2016

2016: EMs stocks to outperform as the Fed will defer rate hikes

01 Mar 2016

2016: Long duration to remain a profitable theme

17 Feb 2016

2016: Brexit risks: more an FX than a rates story

16 Dec 2015

2016: US HY pricing in Armageddon

11 Nov 2015

2015: Long agri commodities, short energy

16 Oct 2015

2015: Long/overweight 10y gilts

16 Oct 2015

2015: Buy 10y USTs

07 Oct 2015

2015: Lower inflation and policy tightening will flatten the US yield curve

26 Aug 2015

2015: Buy the dip on the S&P

20 May 2015

2015: Sell coppper on China slowdown

15 May 2015

2015: Increase long/overweight Japanese stocks

13 May 2015

2015: A $-neutral G10 basket

08 Apr 2015

2015: Long USD but only in select currency pairs

18 Feb 2015

2015: Gilt yields and GBP are capped

13 Feb 2015

2015: Overweight core euro area stocks

03 Feb 2015

2015: US equity bulls, particular consumer stocks

30 Jan 2015

2015: Strong negative on Brazilian stocks

27 Jun 2014

2014: Big Bull rampant through 2015

05 Feb 2014

2014: Yen down, stocks up to remain the Japan trade

17 Jan 2014

2014: UST 10y yields to be held down by global investment flows

17 Jan 2014

2014: US stocks to outperform other DMs again

17 Jan 2014

2014: Weak growth and deflation risk means buy French, Spanish and Italian government bonds

25 Nov 2013

2013: Yuan down

18 Jan 2013

2013: US stocks to outperform 'cheap' European stocks

18 Jan 2013

2013: Gold to lose its lustre

20 Dec 2012

2012: Yen weakness to extend well into 2013

20 Dec 2012

2012: US debt markets

12 Oct 2012

2012: Chinese growth and liquidity sweet spot > long stocks short-term

26 Sep 2012

2012: Markets drunk on liquidity: relative value sector call is best bet

21 May 2012

2012: Backing a relatively constructive stance on European stocks

12 Jan 2012

2012: European risk decouples from US risk

03 Jan 2012

2012: Equity markets to peak early in 2012

03 Jan 2012

2012: Short AUD the best way to play China's slowdown

03 Jan 2012

2012: Who is most exposed in the next stage of the euro area crisis

22 Mar 2011

2011: Oil price to begin secular fall

01 Mar 2011

2011: US equities to peak in the summer

28 Feb 2011

2011: India must raise rates to battle inflation - stocks will suffer

03 Dec 2010

2010: US long bond yield to be well down over 12 months

04 Oct 2010

2010: Oil prices may remain bubbly while QE2 is on the cards

18 May 2010

2010: ECB won't raise rates in 2010

14 Oct 2009

2009: Indian inflation out of control, RBI behind the curve

23 Sep 2009

2009: Government debts to dominate investor behaviour

04 Aug 2009

2009: Bank of England will need more QE

03 Mar 2009

2009: Huge upside potential in US equity markets

01 Aug 2008

2008: Timing the US stock market recovery

09 May 2008

2008: Oil price driven too high by speculation - will peak and fall rapidly

23 Apr 2007

2007: Fed funds rate staying high

20 Jun 2006

2006: Indian stock market offering value

31 Oct 2005

2005: Sell US bonds short-term

20 May 2004

2004: US debt markets

16 Apr 2003

2003: Japan stocks are undervalued

10 Jan 2003

2003: UK shares recovery

10 Apr 2002

2002: US Treasuries to outperform US stocks

18 Dec 2001

2001: US stocks hamstrung after end of dot.com bubble

02 Dec 2001

2001: US bonds preferred

03 Jul 2001

2001: UK equities

11 May 2000

2000: Dotcom bubble to burst

09 May 2000