2017: OPEC cuts not enough to pull oil price higher

Consensus said:

Goldman Sachs expected WTI to rise to $57.50pb in H1 with OPEC cuts factored into the forecast.

We said:

In the near term, the balance of risks for oil prices looks skewed to the downside. Positioning is stretched. Speculative WTI longs are hovering at record highs and producer hedging has increased markedly over the last two months. Oil price volatility remains depressed, but is bound to creep higher as the global inventory overhang recedes, OPEC compliance is already in the price and the market begins to shift its focus to demand. (LSR Daily Note 24th January 2017)

Outcome:

WTI rose modestly from $53.18pb at time of publication to peak at $53.99pb on 24th February. By 9th March the price had fallen back to $50.28pb.

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