2019: Shifting Pemex risk

We said:

The government's latest moves to aid Pemex have given the struggling firm fresh fiscal relief, but fall far short of mitigating risks for its new USD8+ bn refinery. 

More tax cuts for Pemex are forthcoming but a federal rainy day fund will no longer be tapped. This is positive for Pemex bondholders, but the firm's structural woes are unlikely to go away without a big change in energy policy; as fiscal risk migrates from the firm to the government, this will buy Pemex time but also boost the odds of sovereign ratings downgrades. 

Outcome:

On June 5, Fitch downgraded Mexico's sovereign rating by one notch to BBB, and as a result, downgraded Pemex by one notch to junk the following day. On June 6, Moody's - which rates Pemex one notch above junk - changed its credit outlook to negative. 

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