BRL has been beaten down by political risk. We expect a Bolsonaro relief rally to support Brazilian but the FX market continues to hedge against a big fall in the real. The 25 delta risk-reversal/at the money ratio is two standard deviations above its long-term average, a sign that investors remain long USD/BRL. Instead, we reckon there is time and space for the ratio to fall and the currency to rally.
In the LSR View “The bull case for Bolsonaro”, we lay out the three main pillars of a bullish outlook: the outsourcing of economic policy to his economic advisers; the formation of a supportive coalition to enable passage of legislation; and the appointment of experienced political operators to push reforms through Congress. It is still early days – the second round vote still needs to be won – but optimism over the outlook for Brazil should spur a rally for the next few months.
Seasonally, BRL tends to weaken in November, particularly against USD. While we reckon there is room for USD/BRL to fall, we prefer to buy BRL/MXN at 5.06 with a stop at 4.93 and target of 5.30. BRL/MXN is less subject to weak BRL seasonality in November.
Trade gained almost 4% in one week as BRL rocketed. Ahead of the second round election we chose to be prudent and cashed-out at 5.25 for a profit of 3.6%.