2018: Trump tariff tantrums will benefit Brazil

We said:

In a tit-for-tat trade war between China and the US, Brazil's farm sector, which has been a driving force of the country's economic recovery, would be a primary beneficiary. Trump's initial bluster and grandstanding on trade both with Mexico and China has created significant uncertainty about the sustainability of US supply chains for agricultural products. Even if the resolution of upcoming negotiations spare US farm exports, countries that import from the US have strong reasons to diversify their souces of supply. As a result, Brazil will likely be in a win-win situation. 

Outcome:

Brazilian exports of soybeans to China rise 15% from 44.1 milliion tonnes in January - August 2017 to 50.9 million tonnes in the same period in 2018. 

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