Blogs - yield curve

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Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steve Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 

The Fed has b...

Fed FOMC Interest Rates Powell Steve Blitz US Economy Yield Curve


Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

15 Nov 2018 - Shweta Singh
  • Foreigners' appetite for US Treasuries is diminishing
  • Declining EM FX reserves take away a key source of demand
  • Hedged US yield pick-up for DM investors no longer attractive

Foreign demand for US Treasurie...

Bond Yields ECB Fed FX QE Shweta Singh Yield curve


Why the US yield curve is special

Why the US yield curve is special

20 Aug 2018 - Dario Perkins

The continued flattening in the US yield curve remains a source of background anxiety for investors. If the curve continues to flatten – we are warned – it must eventually invert. And if it inverts soon, there will be a recession in 2019.

...


Dario Perkins Recession US Yield Curve

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

27 Mar 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Oliver Brennan digs deeper into recent moves across key money market spreads & concludes that the overall recent widening is not a precursor to a major macro and/or market crunch.

Sudden sharp changes in these spreads have histori...

Banking BoJ ECB Fed Financial Markets FOMC Interest Rates LIBOR Oliver Brennan Quantitative tightening Yield curve


The Dull 2018 Consensus

The Dull 2018 Consensus

12 Feb 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Equity markets are arguably getting a little frothy short term & some sort of consolidation would be healthy, but we re-iterate that we are not yet in a full scale bubble; although ultimately before the music stops we expect to have fully experienced on...

Bubble Central Banks Dario Perkins Equity Markets Inflation Yield curve


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