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Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.



How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

Investors have recently favoured US equities with large foreign revenue exposure, as opposed to domestically orientated operations. He for...

Equities Fed QT Steve Blitz US Economy


Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

Dario Perkins looks at the short-term dangers and what might tip a period of...

Dario Perkins Fed Recession watch US


Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steve Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 

The Fed has b...

Fed FOMC Interest Rates Powell Steve Blitz US Economy Yield Curve


Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 20...

    China EA Emerging Markets Japan Korea Oil Oil price US

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sud...

    China FOMC MARKETS Oliver Brennan Trade Trade War TRUMP USD

The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
...


Fed Inflation Recession Trade War US

Trade War: More escalation ahead

Trade War: More escalation ahead

18 Sep 2018 - Jonathan Fenby & Bo Zhuang
  • Trade confrontation has intensified. We expect US tariffs vs. China to rise to 25% 
  • China unlikely to offer concessions
  • We maintain our 15% yuan devaluation call

We warned our clients that the US-Sino tra...

China Tariffs Trade War US


What now for industrial metals?

What now for industrial metals?

21 Aug 2018 - Konstantinos Venetis

2018 has been a rollercoaster year for commodities. Resilience during the early part of the year gave way to intensifying downside pressure over the summer. Gold, industrial metals and (to a lesser extent) oil have all suffered.

At the start of th...

Commodities Energy Gold Industrial metals Inflation Konstantinos Venetis


Why the US yield curve is special

Why the US yield curve is special

20 Aug 2018 - Dario Perkins

The continued flattening in the US yield curve remains a source of background anxiety for investors. If the curve continues to flatten – we are warned – it must eventually invert. And if it inverts soon, there will be a recession in 2019.

...


Dario Perkins Recession US Yield Curve

Trade war morphing into FX war

Trade war morphing into FX war

07 Aug 2018 - Charles Dumas

As the trade war situation has now escalated we now see this as a key political shock. We expect China to retaliate vigorously to any fresh US import tariffs and see the likely battle ground as Foreign Exchange. China’s probable response would be to s...

Charles Dumas China FX Tariffs Trade war US


FOMC’s return to realism

FOMC’s return to realism

25 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex  leading to an extended cycle eventuates.

The attempt to charac...

Bond Yields Fed FOMC Inflation Interest Rates Rate Hikes Unemployment US


EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Our latest thoughts from my colleague Larry Brainard re the EM recent washout. Recent EM market weakness is not a broader retrenchment in EM assets, but risks of contagion from the Argentine and Turkish crises are growing; ​US-China trade conflicts a...

Argentina Emerging Markets Turkey US China Trade


Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

11 May 2018 - Martin Shenfield

As President Trump’s trade delegation returns from Beijing from preliminary discussions, we question how and when the US and China will be able to resolve their trade and economic disputes. Given not only the gulf that lies between the ultimate object...

Donald Trump Made in China 2025 Protectionism Trade War US China Trade


Is Everyone Wrong About the Cycle?

Is Everyone Wrong About the Cycle?

26 Apr 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Whilst volatility remains elevated & equity markets stuck in choppy trendless trading with ongoing negative breadth divergence, my colleague Dario Perkins revisits his thesis from last year that productivity growth & hence potential GDP has been und...

Economic growth Late cycle Macroeconomics US Productivity


Eurodollar Dangers

Eurodollar Dangers

25 Jan 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Following on from our long standing above consensus optimism about both the sustainability of the synchronised global growth cycle & markets more generally, my colleague Dario Perkins considers below the risks to this rosy scenario of higher real yields...

Bubble Dario Perkins Economic cycle Financial markets FOMC Global growth Liquidity crisis Market Liquidity Quantitative tightening Real yields USD


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