Blogs - trade

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China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

China GDP – Stimulus red lines and domestic weakness

17 Apr 2019 - Rory Green

Chinese Q1 GDP was the weakest in decades on the offical reading. The TS Lombard recalculation shows it to be even weaker at 5.2% yoy. Rory Green writes:

TS Lombard’s China GDP calculation puts real real Q1/19 GDP growth at 5.2% yoy, the sam...

#China #Exports #GDP #Import #Rory Green #Trade War

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield
  • Global macro data to disappoint
  • Deflationary pressures rebuilding
  • Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response
  • EM equities due further consolidation/correction

Recent...

#Central Banks #Emerging Markets #Equities #Fed #Martin Shenfield #Trade #Yield curve

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

27 Mar 2019 - Jon Harrison

EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations. 5 main risks are under-priced:

  • No respite from global slowdown. The Fed’s action on QT shows they are concerned a...
#China #Emerging Markets #Equities #Eurozone #Jon Harrison #QT #Stocks #Tariff #Trade

Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

China’s Vice Premier, Liu He is in Washington for trade t...

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Trade War

Time-out not time up for trade war

Time-out not time up for trade war

03 Dec 2018 - Eleanor Olcott
  • Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
  • But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
  • After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 
#Eleanor Olcott #g20 #Tariffs #Trade War #Trump #Xi Jinping

Rocket Man risk to resurface

Rocket Man risk to resurface

14 Nov 2018 - Rory Green
  • The Singapore summit agreement is unravelling
  • For China, the trade war and North Korea are linked
  • Rifts in the South Korea-US alliance are emerging

Markets have discounted the “rocket man” risk, wh...

#China #North Korea #Rory Green #South Korea #Trade War

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sud...
#China #FOMC #MARKETS #Oliver Brennan #Trade #Trade War #TRUMP #USD

The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
...
#Fed #Inflation #Recession #Trade War #US

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

Beyond Trump: How markets will reglobalize China’s trade

21 Sep 2018 - Lawrence Brainard

Larry Brainard looks beyond the relentless march of President Trump’s escalating trade war. He explains why market forces will reshape world trade. The world will fracture into distinct trading blocs. The pattern is already beginning to take shape.

#China #Globalization #Manufacturing #Trade #Trade War #Trump

Trade War: More escalation ahead

Trade War: More escalation ahead

18 Sep 2018 - Jonathan Fenby & Bo Zhuang
  • Trade confrontation has intensified. We expect US tariffs vs. China to rise to 25% 
  • China unlikely to offer concessions
  • We maintain our 15% yuan devaluation call

We warned our clients that the US-Sino tra...

#China #Tariffs #Trade War #US

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

05 Sep 2018 - Jon Harrison
  • Argentina, Turkey could be manageable, Brazil less so, China not at all
  • EM crises, tighter liquidity and Trade War lead to correlated markets
  • Negative feedback to DM will be via trade and China 

We mainta...

#Argentina #Brazil #China #Emerging Markets #Liquidity #Trade #Trade War #Turkey

Trade war morphing into FX war

Trade war morphing into FX war

07 Aug 2018 - Charles Dumas

As the trade war situation has now escalated we now see this as a key political shock. We expect China to retaliate vigorously to any fresh US import tariffs and see the likely battle ground as Foreign Exchange. China’s probable response would be to s...

#Charles Dumas #China #FX #Tariffs #Trade war #US

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Our latest thoughts from my colleague Larry Brainard re the EM recent washout. Recent EM market weakness is not a broader retrenchment in EM assets, but risks of contagion from the Argentine and Turkish crises are growing; ​US-China trade conflicts a...

#Argentina #Emerging Markets #Turkey #US China Trade

Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

Trump’s Trade Follies Threaten Wider Fallout In Markets

11 May 2018 - Martin Shenfield

As President Trump’s trade delegation returns from Beijing from preliminary discussions, we question how and when the US and China will be able to resolve their trade and economic disputes. Given not only the gulf that lies between the ultimate object...

#Donald Trump #Made in China 2025 #Protectionism #Trade War #US China Trade

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