Blogs - steven blitz

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The Folly Of Inflation Targets

The Folly Of Inflation Targets

31 Oct 2019 - Charles Dumas

As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets have become perverse and unachievable. This leaves fiscal policy as the only potent tool in the next slowdown.

#bond yields #Central Banks #Charles Dumas #Euro crisis #Fiscal policy #Global Fractures #Inflation #Interest rates #Monetary Policy #Populism #Steven Blitz #Trade War #wages

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place.

#Balance Sheets #Debt #Equity Markets #Fed #Interest rates #Liquidity #Recession #Repo market #Steven Blitz

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steven Blitz

As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steven Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

#Equities #Fed #QT #Steven Blitz #US Economy

Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steven Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 
#Fed #FOMC #Interest Rates #Powell #Steven Blitz #US Economy #Yield Curve

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

19 Nov 2018 - Steven Blitz

If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect between the Fed continuing to put out these forecasts and the evolving economic outlook.

#Fed #FOMC #Rate Hikes #Steven Blitz #TRUMP

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