As part of our Global Fractures series, Charles Dumas, our Chief Economist, and Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, explain why monetary policy has failed to generate the desired levels of inflation. Inflation targets have become perverse and unachievable. This leaves fiscal policy as the only potent tool in the next slowdown.
Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place.
As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.
Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.
If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect between the Fed continuing to put out these forecasts and the evolving economic outlook.
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