Blogs - recession

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

Fed has created the conditions for the next US recession

22 Oct 2019 - Steven Blitz

Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place.

#Balance Sheets #Debt #Equity Markets #Fed #Interest rates #Liquidity #Recession #Repo market #Steven Blitz

Equities vs Bonds

Equities vs Bonds

20 Jun 2019 - Dario Perkins

Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities. 

#Bond Markets #Dario Perkins #Equities #Interest rates #Recession #Stocks #US Inversion #Yield curve

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steven Blitz

As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steven Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

#Dario Perkins #Fed #Recession watch #US

The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
#Fed #Inflation #Recession #Trade War #US

Why the US yield curve is special

Why the US yield curve is special

20 Aug 2018 - Dario Perkins

The continued flattening in the US yield curve remains a source of background anxiety for investors. If the curve continues to flatten – we are warned – it must eventually invert. And if it inverts soon, there will be a recession in 2019.

#Dario Perkins #Recession #US #Yield Curve



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