Steven Blitz, our Chief US Economist, examines the triggers for the next US recession. The largest risk is household exposure to equity markets. Anyway looking at debt as a trigger is looking in the wrong place.
Dario Perkins digs deep into the reasons why bond markets are better indicators of forthcoming recessions than equities.
As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.
Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.
The continued flattening in the US yield curve remains a source of background anxiety for investors. If the curve continues to flatten – we are warned – it must eventually invert. And if it inverts soon, there will be a recession in 2019....
We have a 30 year track record of successful calls. Many of these calls combined economic, political and market analysis.READ MORE