Blogs - inflation

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.



The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
...


Fed Inflation Recession Trade War US

What now for industrial metals?

What now for industrial metals?

21 Aug 2018 - Konstantinos Venetis

2018 has been a rollercoaster year for commodities. Resilience during the early part of the year gave way to intensifying downside pressure over the summer. Gold, industrial metals and (to a lesser extent) oil have all suffered.

At the start of th...

Commodities Energy Gold Industrial metals Inflation Konstantinos Venetis


FOMC’s return to realism

FOMC’s return to realism

25 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex  leading to an extended cycle eventuates.

The attempt to charac...

Bond Yields Fed FOMC Inflation Interest Rates Rate Hikes Unemployment US


The Dull 2018 Consensus

The Dull 2018 Consensus

12 Feb 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Equity markets are arguably getting a little frothy short term & some sort of consolidation would be healthy, but we re-iterate that we are not yet in a full scale bubble; although ultimately before the music stops we expect to have fully experienced on...

Bubble Central Banks Dario Perkins Equity Markets Inflation Yield curve


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