Blogs - fomc

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steven Blitz

As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steven Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steven Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 
#Fed #FOMC #Interest Rates #Powell #Steven Blitz #US Economy #Yield Curve

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

19 Nov 2018 - Steven Blitz

If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steven Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect between the Fed continuing to put out these forecasts and the evolving economic outlook.

#Fed #FOMC #Rate Hikes #Steven Blitz #TRUMP

Tyranny of the Benchmark

Tyranny of the Benchmark

11 Oct 2018 - Oliver Brennan
  • Market surveys on trade wars indicates escalation is expected
  • But asset markets remain largely undisturbed
  • This is the nature of a continuous market attempting to discount a bimodal event; asset prices could still undergo a sudden shift
#China #FOMC #MARKETS #Oliver Brennan #Trade #Trade War #TRUMP #USD

FOMC’s return to realism

FOMC’s return to realism

25 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex  leading to an extended cycle eventuates.

The attempt to charac...

#Bond Yields #Fed #FOMC #Inflation #Interest Rates #Rate Hikes #Unemployment #US

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

27 Mar 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Oliver Brennan digs deeper into recent moves across key money market spreads & concludes that the overall recent widening is not a precursor to a major macro and/or market crunch.

Sudden sharp changes in these spreads have histori...

#Banking #BoJ #ECB #Fed #Financial Markets #FOMC #Interest Rates #LIBOR #Oliver Brennan #Quantitative tightening #Yield curve

Eurodollar Dangers

Eurodollar Dangers

25 Jan 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Following on from our long standing above consensus optimism about both the sustainability of the synchronised global growth cycle & markets more generally, my colleague Dario Perkins considers below the risks to this rosy scenario of higher real yields...

#Bubble #Dario Perkins #Economic cycle #Financial markets #FOMC #Global growth #Liquidity crisis #Market Liquidity #Quantitative tightening #Real yields #USD



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