Blogs - fed

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Where we stand – our highest conviction views

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield
  • Global macro data to disappoint
  • Deflationary pressures rebuilding
  • Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response
  • EM equities due further consolidation/correction


#Central Banks #Emerging Markets #Equities #Fed #Martin Shenfield #Trade #Yield curve

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steve Blitz

The question is whether the easing from QT (already in the market, see chart) and China’s stimulus will be enough to help resurrect growth or whether there is more weakness to come. Because it is too soon for the lagged impact of the inverted yiel...

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steve Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

Investors have recently favoured US equities with large foreign revenue exposure, as opposed to domestically orientated operations. He for...

#Equities #Fed #QT #Steve Blitz #US Economy

Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

Dario Perkins looks at the short-term dangers and what might tip a period of...

#Dario Perkins #Fed #Recession watch #US

Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steve Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 

The Fed has b...

#Fed #FOMC #Interest Rates #Powell #Steve Blitz #US Economy #Yield Curve

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

19 Nov 2018 - Steve Blitz

If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect bet...

#Fed #FOMC #Rate Hikes #Steve Blitz #TRUMP

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

15 Nov 2018 - Shweta Singh
  • Foreigners' appetite for US Treasuries is diminishing
  • Declining EM FX reserves take away a key source of demand
  • Hedged US yield pick-up for DM investors no longer attractive

Foreign demand for US Treasurie...

#Bond Yields #ECB #Fed #FX #QE #Shweta Singh #Yield curve

The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
#Fed #Inflation #Recession #Trade War #US

FOMC’s return to realism

FOMC’s return to realism

25 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex  leading to an extended cycle eventuates.

The attempt to charac...

#Bond Yields #Fed #FOMC #Inflation #Interest Rates #Rate Hikes #Unemployment #US

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

27 Mar 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Oliver Brennan digs deeper into recent moves across key money market spreads & concludes that the overall recent widening is not a precursor to a major macro and/or market crunch.

Sudden sharp changes in these spreads have histori...

#Banking #BoJ #ECB #Fed #Financial Markets #FOMC #Interest Rates #LIBOR #Oliver Brennan #Quantitative tightening #Yield curve



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