Blogs - fed

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.



How strong is the US economy?

How strong is the US economy?

13 Feb 2019 - Steve Blitz

Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.

Investors have recently favoured US equities with large foreign revenue exposure, as opposed to domestically orientated operations. He for...

Equities Fed QT Steve Blitz US Economy


Recession watch

Recession watch

28 Jan 2019 - Dario Perkins

Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.

Dario Perkins looks at the short-term dangers and what might tip a period of...

Dario Perkins Fed Recession watch US


Will a pause work?

Will a pause work?

05 Dec 2018 - Steve Blitz
  • 2s/5s yield curve inverts: market voting the Fed eases in 2020
  • Curve compression has occurred before. FOMC reaction is critical
  • Turn or transition for the economy? We still think transition 

The Fed has b...

Fed FOMC Interest Rates Powell Steve Blitz US Economy Yield Curve


How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

How many Fed hikes over next 12 months?

19 Nov 2018 - Steve Blitz

If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect bet...

Fed FOMC Rate Hikes Steve Blitz TRUMP


Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

Foreigners to Intensify Bond Selloff

15 Nov 2018 - Shweta Singh
  • Foreigners' appetite for US Treasuries is diminishing
  • Declining EM FX reserves take away a key source of demand
  • Hedged US yield pick-up for DM investors no longer attractive

Foreign demand for US Treasurie...

Bond Yields ECB Fed FX QE Shweta Singh Yield curve


The 20/20 recession

The 20/20 recession

10 Oct 2018 - Dario Perkins
  • Most of the sellside is talking about a global recession in 2020
  • Usually they blame the Fed, which apparently can’t see the ‘obvious’
  • Trade wars are a threat but the long expansion could continue
...


Fed Inflation Recession Trade War US

FOMC’s return to realism

FOMC’s return to realism

25 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex  leading to an extended cycle eventuates.

The attempt to charac...

Bond Yields Fed FOMC Inflation Interest Rates Rate Hikes Unemployment US


The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

The Dollar Funding Squeeze Less Than Meets The Eye

27 Mar 2018 - Martin Shenfield

My colleague Oliver Brennan digs deeper into recent moves across key money market spreads & concludes that the overall recent widening is not a precursor to a major macro and/or market crunch.

Sudden sharp changes in these spreads have histori...

Banking BoJ ECB Fed Financial Markets FOMC Interest Rates LIBOR Oliver Brennan Quantitative tightening Yield curve


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