As we forecast the Fed announced the end of its QT programme at their meeting on 20 March.
Steve Blitz, our Chief US Economist, looks at the strength of the US economy in the light of investor flows.
Many investors are concerned that the US is about to enter into a recession. We disagree and expect Fed action to prevent a recession and support stronger growth from H2.
If you take the Fed’s “dot plots” at their word, three or four more hikes in 2019, after raising rates in December would seem to be the order of the day, says Steve Blitz, Chief US Economist. There is, of course, an inherent disconnect between the Fed continuing to put out these forecasts and the evolving economic outlook.
My colleague Steve Blitz sets out why the market is still too complacent with respect to the path of further Fed rate hikes even if our more optimistic view of accelerating capex leading to an extended cycle eventuates.
The attempt to charac...
My colleague Oliver Brennan digs deeper into recent moves across key money market spreads & concludes that the overall recent widening is not a precursor to a major macro and/or market crunch.
Sudden sharp changes in these spreads have histori...
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