Blogs - emerging markets

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Trade and tech risks still not priced in

Trade and tech risks still not priced in

28 May 2019 - Jon Harrison

In his lead article from EM Watch of 28 May, Jon Harrison argues that neither trade nor tech risk are still correctly priced in despite the chaos of the US-China trade negotiations.

#China #EM Watch #Emerging Markets #Jon Harrison #PMI #Tariff #Tech #Trade War #US Technology #Xi Jinping

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

Where we stand – our highest conviction views

02 Apr 2019 - Martin Shenfield
  • Global macro data to disappoint
  • Deflationary pressures rebuilding
  • Yield curve inversion will reinforce Central Banks’ s dovish response
  • EM equities due further consolidation/correction
#Central Banks #Emerging Markets #Equities #Fed #Martin Shenfield #Trade #Yield curve

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

EM correction – Watch out for 5 triggers

27 Mar 2019 - Jon Harrison

EM equities are set for a correction. Chinese and EM stocks are over-extended vs. their respective long run valuations.

#China #Emerging Markets #Equities #Eurozone #Jon Harrison #QT #Stocks #Tariff #Trade

Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 2019
#China #EA #Emerging Markets #Japan #Korea #Oil #Oil price #US

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

EM contagion: Crisis upon crisis

05 Sep 2018 - Jon Harrison
  • Argentina, Turkey could be manageable, Brazil less so, China not at all
  • EM crises, tighter liquidity and Trade War lead to correlated markets
  • Negative feedback to DM will be via trade and China 

We mainta...

#Argentina #Brazil #China #Emerging Markets #Liquidity #Trade #Trade War #Turkey

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

EMs: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

11 Jun 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Our latest thoughts from my colleague Larry Brainard re the EM recent washout. Recent EM market weakness is not a broader retrenchment in EM assets, but risks of contagion from the Argentine and Turkish crises are growing; ​US-China trade conflicts a...

#Argentina #Emerging Markets #Turkey #US China Trade

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