Blogs - ea

Our blog page showcases our thought-leadership on key issues in economics, politics and markets. As independent analysts we have a voice in the public debate on these issues. The content on this page includes: blog posts, research notes and video content. To find out more about our research services and access to our team please Contact Us.

Fed moves halfway to an ease

Fed moves halfway to an ease

21 Mar 2019 - Steve Blitz

The question is whether the easing from QT (already in the market, see chart) and China’s stimulus will be enough to help resurrect growth or whether there is more weakness to come. Because it is too soon for the lagged impact of the inverted yiel...

#Fed #FOMC #interest rates #QT #Recession #Steve Blitz #US Treasury #Yield curve

Global tech breakup

Global tech breakup

20 Feb 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

Tech firms in Shenzhen and Silicon Valley will be profoundly affected by two pieces of legislation that passed through Congress last year, known by their acronyms as ECRA and FIRRMA. Eleanor Olcott has gone into the detail and explains why...

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Tech

Trade war: Patchwork solution

Trade war: Patchwork solution

30 Jan 2019 - Eleanor Olcott

This week’s talks in Washington, will not end the trade war, argues Eleanor Olcott.  Instead they will reveal a pathway to a patchwork deal that will fall short of US aims.

China’s Vice Premier, Liu He is in Washington for trade t...

#China #Eleanor Olcott #Huawei #Trade War

Time-out not time up for trade war

Time-out not time up for trade war

03 Dec 2018 - Eleanor Olcott
  • Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
  • But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
  • After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely 
#Eleanor Olcott #g20 #Tariffs #Trade War #Trump #Xi Jinping

Rocket Man risk to resurface

Rocket Man risk to resurface

14 Nov 2018 - Rory Green
  • The Singapore summit agreement is unravelling
  • For China, the trade war and North Korea are linked
  • Rifts in the South Korea-US alliance are emerging

Markets have discounted the “rocket man” risk, wh...

#China #North Korea #Rory Green #South Korea #Trade War

Oil takes the world off the boil

Oil takes the world off the boil

11 Oct 2018 - Charles Dumas
  • September's $25-$30/barrel YoY addition to oil prices costs 1% of world GDP
  • Non-oil EMs, EA, Japan and Korea worst hit - significant demand slowdown
  • US, China less affected - shale frackers and other producers to boom in 20...
#China #EA #Emerging Markets #Japan #Korea #Oil #Oil price #US

Eurodollar Dangers

Eurodollar Dangers

25 Jan 2018 - Martin Shenfield

Following on from our long standing above consensus optimism about both the sustainability of the synchronised global growth cycle & markets more generally, my colleague Dario Perkins considers below the risks to this rosy scenario of higher real yields...

#Bubble #Dario Perkins #Economic cycle #Financial markets #FOMC #Global growth #Liquidity crisis #Market Liquidity #Quantitative tightening #Real yields #USD



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